CHINA AUTO INDUSTRY TRENDS

Transcription

1 CHINA AUTO INDUSTRY TRENDS Yong Yang Corporate Economics and Strategic Issues November 7, 2012

2 OUTLINE Slide Country Overview 2-3 Infrastructure Conditions 4-7 Industry Characteristics 8-12 Industry Volume Outlook Industry Segmentation Trend Industry Pricing Trend Auto Financing Outlook Ford Business in China SLIDE 1

3 TOTAL LAND AND POPULATION IN BRICS AND U.S. Heilongjiang Jilin Xinjiang Liaoning Beijing Gansu Inner Mongolia Ningxia Tianjin Hebei Shanxi Shandong Qinghai Jiangsu Shanghai Anhui Hubei Sichuan J Shaanxi Henan Tibet i Chongqing Zhejiang i Jiangxi Land Area Population Population Density (Sq. Km.) (2011, Mils.) (People/Sq. Km.) Brazil 8,514, Russia 17,098, India 3,287,263 1, China 9,596,961 1, U.S. 9,826, Guizhou Yunnan Hunan Fujian Taiwan Guangxi Guangdong Hainan SLIDE 2

4 POPULATION AND GDP BY REGION Heilongjiang ② Xinjiang Jilin Liaoning Beijing Inner Mongolia Gansu Ningxia Tianjin Hebei Shanxi Shandong ① Qinghai Shaanxi Henan Hubei Sichuan J ③ Tibet Jiangsu Shanghai Anhui i 2007 GDP PPP per Capita in $2005 Tier 1 GDP per Capita > $6,500 Tier 2 $3,500 < GDP per Capita < $6,500 Tier 3 GDP per Capita < $3,500 Chongqing Guizhou Yunnan Hunan Zhejiang i Jiangxi Fujian Taiwan Guangxi Guangdong Hainan Population (Mils.) Driving-age population (Mils.) GDP PPP per Capita ($2005) National 1,337 1,390 1,102 1,156 7,457 16,335 Tier ,070 24,247 Tier ,981 15,291 Tier ,867 10,661 SLIDE 3

5 INFRASTRUCTURE COMPARISON Length of Expressways KM (000) Latest* U.S. Source: CEIC China Database, CIA World Factbook: *Latest is 2008 SLIDE 4

6 EXPRESSWAYS IN CHINA (AT A GLANCE) Blue: Red: Existing Expressways Under Construction Source: SLIDE 5

7 BRIC AND U.S. ROADWAYS 2011 Roadway Quality (World Ranking) Better Brazil Russia India China U.S. Source: World Economic Forum SLIDE 6

8 DIFFERENT TRANSPORTATION MODES Passenger KM (Trils.) Highways Railway Civil Aviation Waterways Source: Statistics Bureau of China SLIDE 7

9 FIRST TIME BUYERS DOMINATE 74% 75% 63% China India ASEAN SLIDE 8

10 CUSTOMERS ARE YOUNG China India 42% 33% 34% 38% 20% 18% 10% 5% 20s 30s 40s s 30s 40s 50+ Source: Survey on National demand for passenger vehicles - private user survey 2009, SIC, McKinsey Automotive Branding Survey 2007 SLIDE 9

11 REGIONAL DRIVING AGE POPULATION Driving Age Population (Mils.) Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 1,102 1,118 1,130 1,139 1,146 1, % % % SLIDE 10

12 GDP PER CAPITA BY REGION GDP Per Capita ($2005) National Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Take-off Level of Income ($5,000) Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier Source: World Bank, CESI Data SLIDE 11

13 REGIONAL VEHICLE DENSITY SATURATION LIMITS Saturation Limit (Parc per 1000 Driving Age Pop.) National Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Source: CESI SLIDE 12

14 REGIONAL SALES Vehicle Sales Units (Mils.) Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier % 30% % 38% 44% % Note: Model forecast, not Ford planning assumption Source: CESI SLIDE 13

15 REGIONAL SALES Volume Decomposition (Mils.) Population Density Growth Scrappage / Replacement Demand % 16% % % 4% % Source: CESI SLIDE 14

16 NATIONAL AND REGIONAL DENSITY TRENDS National Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Density Trends (Parc per 1000 Driving Age Pop.) Source: CESI SLIDE 15

17 REGIONAL VEHICLE PARC Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Vehicle Parc (Mils.) % 22% 35% 43% % 32% Source: CESI SLIDE 16

18 SEGMENTATION TRENDS Segmentation Trends (%) YTD Source: CESI B and Below C CD, D/E Utilities Premium SLIDE 17

19 LIGHT VEHICLE CAPACITY Light Vehicle Capacity (Mils.) Excess Production Memo: Excess as Pct. Of Production 24% 55% 52% 40% Source: IHS Global Insight, September 2012 Forecast SLIDE 19

20 VEHICLE PRICING TRENDS Auto Price Index, Retail, Passenger Cars Only (Pct. Chg. YoY) 2.2 (4.4) (4.9) Source: Cheshi.com.cn CAPI SLIDE 20

21 VEHICLE PRICING TRENDS Vehicle Pricing Trends (Index, Jan = 100) Micro Small Medium Class High Class Luxury Source: CEIC SLIDE 21

22 AUTO FINANCING -- MARKET OVERVIEW Consumer Auto Loans Outstanding, China (Bils., RMB) Source: CEIC SLIDE 22

23 AUTO FINANCING -- CROSS-COUNTRY Vehicle Sales Financed, 2009 (%) 80% 49% 37% 8% Source: Ford 2009 SLIDE 23

24 LOANS OUTSTANDING -- PROJECTION Passenger Vehicle Loans Outstanding (Bils., RMB) Lower Bound Upper Bound Memo: U.S. Auto Loans Outstanding: $670 Bils. 1,406 (220 Bils. USD) 1,087 (170 Bils. USD) Note: Model forecast, not Ford planning assumption Source: CESI SLIDE 25

25 CONTRIBUTIONS TO LOANS OUTSTANDING GROWTH Contributions to Growth in 2020 Loans Outstanding (Bils., RMB) 147 1, % 44% % , Total Industry Volume Financing Penetration Vehicle Price 2020, Total Growth due to Source: CESI SLIDE 26

26 FORD S FOOTPRINT IN CHINA CFME #1 Engine Plant 长福马发动机工厂 1 Nanjing Plant 南京工厂 CQ#1 Plant 重庆工厂 Beijing Ford Motor (China) Ltd. Beijing Branch 福特汽车 ( 中国 ) 公司北京代表处 CFMA (Passenger Vehicles) CQ#2 Plant 重庆二工厂 CQ#3 Plant 重庆三工厂 Engine Plant 发动机工厂 Transmission plant 变速箱工厂 Hangzhou Plant 杭州工厂 JMC (Commercial Vehicles) Chongqing Shanghai Hangzhou Nanchang Hong Kong Nanchang Plant 南昌工厂 小兰基地 Xiaolan Plant Nanjing Ford REC 福特汽车工程研究中心 Ford APA HQ 福特亚太非总部 Taiwan Ford Lio Ho Motor Company 福特六合汽车股份有限公司 SLIDE 27

27 AGGRESSIVE PRODUCT PLANS: NEW PRODUCTS Ford EcoSport 翼博 Ford Kuga 翼虎 Ford Explorer 探险者 Ford Focus 福克斯 SLIDE 28

28 FORD S AMBITIOUS PLAN FOR CHINA $4.9 Bils. investment (USD) To date, Ford and its partners have invested close to USD $4.9 Bils. in China, which has significantly increased our capacity 15 x 15 new vehicles Together with our partners, we will bring 15 new vehicles to China by Mils. Capacity by 2015 With the new assembly plants, Ford China capacity will reach 1.8 million units (1.2 Mils. for passenger vehicle and 545K for commercial vehicles) 900+ Dealerships by 2015 By 2015, CFMA & JMC will have more than 960 dealers in China SLIDE 29

29 THANK YOU! Yong Yang Corporate Economics and Strategic Issues November 7, 2012

30 GROWING INDUSTRY VOLUME Global Industry Mix % 39% 40% Asia Pacific 40% Americas 28% Europe, M. East, & Africa 32% 46% 27% 27% Industry Volume (Mils.) Global China 2 (4%) 19 (24%) 32 (29%) Source: IHS Global Insight SLIDE 31