2011 ACN Market Review & 2012 Market Analysis

Transcription

1 & 212 Market Analysis Huang Youcheng Section Chief Sales Center of Jilin Petrochemical

2 & 212 Market Analysis Huang Youcheng Section Chief of Sales Center CNPC Jilin Petrochemical March 212 Shanghai Contents 212 ACN Market Analysis ACN Business Growth of Jilin Petrochemical 57

3 ACN Capacity in China in 211 Producer Daqing Refiner & Chemical Daqing Petrochemical Jilin Petrochemical Fushun Petrochemical Lanzhou Petrochemical Qilu Petrochemical Anqing Petrochemical Shanghai Petrochemical Capacity (kt/yr) Output Captive use for PAM AF, ABS ABS AF NBR, ABS AF AF AF Captive use volume Commodity volume SECCO Mutual Supply with Shanghai PC, AF, ABS 1 Total , ACN, Acrylic Fiber and ABS Price Trend in 211 Yuan/ton 3, 27, 24, 21, 18, 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec ACN(port) ABS AF 58

4 ACN Distribution by Region in China in 211 Jiangsu & Zhejiang 28% South China, Northwest China 3% Changzhou & Zhenjiang 18% Henan 3% Jilin 19% North China 8% Northeast China 7% Shandong 14% ACN Import by Month in Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 9 Volume Price($/ton) Volume Price($/ton) Volume Price($/ton) Sep Oct Nov Dec Total

5 ACN Import by Month in Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total Volume 21 Volume 211 Volume 9 Price($/ton) 21 Price($/ton) 211 Price($/ton) Import Volume: up 95.9kt in 211 from 21, down.52kt in 21 from 9 Import Price: up $277/ton in 211 from 21, up $925/ton in 21 from 9 Import Origins in America S. Korea Japan Taiwan Russia Others Total

6 Overall Balanced in ACN Output Import Volume ACN for AF ACN for ABS ACN for PAM and others Apparent Demand Y-on-Y growth: Apparent demand 1%; Domestic Output 7%; Import Volume 22%; For AF 8%; For ABS 15%; and for PAM and others 26% 211 Acrylonitrile Market Overview General Trend: Firm up at first and then go down Producers:Running at high rates Upstream:Propylene Downstream:Acrylic fiber, ABS, AM/PAM!Qilu Petrochemical, PTT Asahi, SECCO Macro:European debt crisis; real estate policies; RMB appreciation 61

7 212 ACN Market Outlook 212 ACN Market Analysis Two political sessions held in March & 18th congress in H2 Domestic economy in China better than world economy Continuous turbulence in world economy Worldwide extreme weather Acrylic Fiber, ABS, PAM (AM) Operation rate of ACN industry 212 ACN Market Analysis Supply and Demand in 212 ACN market Capacit y (kt/a) 142 Output 122 Import 48 AF* *: Means the ACN demand converted from the downstream derivative. 67 ABS* Slight tightness in the H1 212 and slight length in H It is expected that the market will move up stably in H1 212, then fluctuate at a high level in H AM/PAM* 44 NBR* 3.5 Others* 2 62

8 New ACN Projects in ACN Market Analysis Country China China China China China CNOOC Producer Wanda Group Anqing Petrochemical (Expansion project) Shanghai Petrochemical SECCO (Expansion) Capacity (kt/yr) Location Dongying, Shandong Anqing, Anhui Jinshan, Shanghai Caojing, Shanghai Hainan Start-up Time 213 Jul 212 after Remark Suspended, 1st phase 1kt/a In progress South Korea Tongsuh Petrochemical 26 Ulsan late 212 Saudi Arabia New project Total 144 New ABS Projects in ACN Market Analysis Producer Shanghai Huayi Zhenjiang Chi Mei Zhenjiang Chi Mei LG Yongxing FCFC Ningbo LG Chemical New Capacity (kt/yr) Start-up Time May 211 (first phase), 212 (second phase) Q (debottlenecking) H , to start up first-phase 15 kt/yr in Q2 212 Demand for ACN Tianjin Dagu H Jilin Petrochemical 4 First-phase kt/yr to start up in Oct Total 1,

9 Sales and Output in Jilin Petrochemical ACN Business Growth of Jilin PC ACN Capacity Target Market External Potential Run Rate Adjustment Capacity: 452 kt/yr, Production: 31 kt, Maintenance in June 212; 4 units in operation a full rate after Oct. Jilin Petrochemical ABS Jilin Qifeng/JiMont Acrylic Fiber External market ABS/Acrylamide/others -9kt in 212 Take market status, profit margins, feedstock supply and units operating status into comprehensive consideration. Sales Principle of Jilin Petrochemical ACN Business Growth of Jilin PC Good services, Long-term stability Customer Classification, Dynamic evaluation Strategic companion, Win-win cooperation 64

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