Guidelines. NADA Used Car Guide Industry Update. NADA Official Used Car Guide Update. May 2012 NEW VEHICLE MARKET

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1 Guidelines May 2012 NADA Used Car Guide Industry Update INSIDE: NADA Official Used Car Guide Update ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Update New Vehicle Sales Data Fuel Price Data Economic Data NADAguides.com Consumer Site Trends AuctionNet Wholesale ket Trends NADA Guidebook Value Trends At NADA Used Car Guide NADA Official Used Car Guide Update NEW VEHICLE MARKET New vehicle sales remained on a positive course through April as the month s tally of 1.18M sales was a 2.3% improvement over the prior year and the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 14.4M was a mild increase over ch s 14.3M unit reading. Both cars and light trucks experienced year-over-year sales gains of 3.5 and 1.1 percent, respectively. At the brand level, Chrysler remained at the top of the leaderboard by once again posting impressive annual gains. Sales of the brand s 200 and 300 series sedans and the Town & Country mid-size van improved by 56%, which helped push Chrysler s total market share to 3.4%, up from 1.9% in April Although growth over at Dodge wasn t as dramatic, sales for the brand did grow by 5%. Other domestic manufacturers didn t fare as well as Chrysler, as both GM and Ford saw little to no improvement across their respective brands. In the case of GM, GMC s sales grew by 5%, but remaining brands Cadillac (-25%), Buick (-16%), and Chevrolet (-8%) all had sales fall. Ford and Lincoln also had a disappointing month as sales dropped by 5 and 13 percent, respectively. New Vehicle Sales Increase Again Sales grow by 2.3% and April s SAAR hits 14.4M. Used Vehicle Prices Reach Seasonal Peak Monthly wholesale price growth slows to 0.6% in April; expected to decline by the same amount in May. Used Price Comparison: Gasoline vs. Hybrid Compact Cars Appreciation for hybrids muted compared to previous gas spikes. Official Used Car Guide 2012MY Used Value Spotlight Chevrolet Volt & Nissan Leaf; Toyota Camry & VW Passat Big Rig Prices Maintain Strength Class 8 Pricing and Volume Remain Near Record Highs Volkswagen added to its almost two year run of consistent sales growth by selling over 37k new units, which was good for a 32% annual gain. By posting sales north of 10k for the second month in a row, the redesigned 12 Passat was again a major contributor to VW s overall tally. Total market share for the brand grew to 5.4%, up from the 4.0% share held last year. Luxury European brands Mercedes-Benz (24%), Audi (15%), and BMW (12%) all posted considerable gains as well. Regarding Asian brands, Toyota continues to see sales recover from last year s production-stymied performance. April s 14% improvement marked the sixth month of growth in a row, which was powered in large part by a 21% increase in sales of the redesigned Camry. Toyota s share for the month stood at 14.6%, or 1.5 points better than last April s 13.1% share. 1

2 Official Used Car Guide Update (continued ) Falling by a slight 0.9%, Nissan sales were relatively flat in April, while Infiniti sales dropped off sharply for the second month in a row, this time by 25%. At 3 and 9 percent, respectively, both Honda and its recently redesigned Civic suffered a second straight month of losses. Demand for the new 12 CR-V has been much better however as sales grew by 9% for the compact utility. By posting only a slim 0.8% increase, growth slowed precipitously at Hyundai for the first time since August 2010 due in large part to thin inventory for brand volume leaders Elantra (14 days) and Sonata (25 days); sales for the two models also declined by 24 and 6 percent, respectively. Per Autodata, average incentive spending totaled $2,426 per unit, down 5.0% on a monthly basis but 4.7% higher than what was observed last year. Average month-end days supply for cars fell by three days to land at 57, whereas light truck supply increased by one day to 67. April s five year average month-end days supply for cars and trucks has been 71 and 76 days, respectively, or quite a bit higher than current levels. Overall supply at the end of the month stood at 56 days, up one day from the prior month. USED VEHICLE MARKET AuctionNet wholesale prices improved again in April which was a result in line with NADA s prediction that used prices would peak during the middle of the month. However, overall appreciation was significantly less than the jump seen in ch and prices began to decline mildly in the latter half of the month. On a mileage and mix adjusted basis, wholesale price growth for vehicles up to five years in age came in at 0.6% or $102 in April, which was a sharp 3.5 points back of ch s growth of 4.1%. Moderating gasoline prices, which fell measurably for the first time since December after peaking in early April, helped to temper compact and mid-size car appreciation for the month. Price growth for the two segments equaled 2.1 and 0.4 percent, respectively. Other notable movement for the month involved large pickups, mid-size vans, and luxury cars. In the case of the large pickups, although wholesale prices for classes 1 3 fell by a slight 0.2%, prices for more personal-use oriented half-ton pickups actually grew by 0.5% with demand being concentrated primarily on later model year units ( ). Despite April s small step back, annual large pickup price growth leads all other segments at 7.2% as advancing vehicle age, improvements in fuel economy, and used affordability relative to new are joining forces with the ongoing decline in used supply to prop up prices. As for mid-size vans, April s non-existent price movement was a decided departure from the previous three months when prices increased by an average of $522 per month; this was a result due in part to a steadily increasing supply of 2011 and 2012 model year off rental units entering the used market. Concentrated demand for certification-worthy three year old off-lease units pushed luxury car prices up by 1.1% which was the second highest increase posted next to that of compact cars. Through April, market prices relative to the first of the year were up by an average of 8.1% and were 2.2% higher than the average recorded in April

3 Official Used Car Guide Update (continued ) MAY MARKET OUTLOOK For May, NADA is predicting that prices relative to April will be down by a modest 0.6% due primarily to a slight seasonal contraction in demand. Correspondingly, value adjustments for May s edition of the Official Used Car Guide were on aggregate mild and ranged from a 1.4% hit to luxury utilities to a 2% increase for compact cars. NADA Official Used Car Guide Values: April vs. May, 2012 Monthly change in Average Trade-In value. Compact Car 2.0% Looking ahead, despite the slight retreat of gasoline prices NADA is Mid-Size Car 0.6% forecasting that they will remain at elevated levels through the summer Mid-Size Van 0.0% months; this will continue to benefit used compact and mid-size car prices, while in turn applying downward pressure to truck prices. That said, trucks will continue to be supported by the long-running decline in used supply, which will have more of a lifting effect in the second half of the year than in the first. Compact Utility Large Pickup Large SUV Mid-Size Utility -0.1% -0.3% -0.5% -0.8% NADA is currently projecting that used prices in June will fall by 0.4% from May s expected level, and although we ve adjusted our annual Luxury Car Luxury Utility -1.3% -1.4% forecast down slightly, we still expect prices to grow by 1% through the end of the year (vehicles up to five years in age). -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% Percent Change Relative to Previous Month ECONOMIC SUMMARY April marked the second month in a row of tepid employment news, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increase of only 115,000 jobs to nonfarm payrolls. This is the lowest figure seen since October of last year and is significantly below the combined average growth of 267k jobs seen over the first two months of the year. The BLS also reported that the unemployment rate dipped by 0.1 point to 8.1%, but this slight improvement was due more to a 0.2 point drop in the number of people actively looking for a job rather than meaningful gains in employment. Sectors reporting the most robust job growth included professional and business services (+62K), health care (+19k), and retail trade where ch s loss of 34k jobs was followed up by a 29k job increase. Manufacturing employment grew for the seventh month in a row, this time by 16k jobs with the vast majority being added in durable goods manufacturing. By adding nearly 20k jobs in April, food service and drinking place employment extended its streak of gains to fifteen months. Per the Conference Board s Consumer Confidence Index, consumer outlook in April changed little from the previous month as the index slid by a scant 0.2 of a point to The organization s Expectations Index, which gauges consumer expectations for the next six months, fell by a more substantial 1.4 points to 81.1 due to growing pessimism surrounding the potential for business conditions to improve over the next few months. On the manufacturing front, results of the Institute of Supply Management s monthly survey of purchasing managers were more good than bad as the Purchasing Manger s Index improved by 1.4 points to 54.8 in April. 3

4 Official Used Car Guide Update (continued ) The New Orders, Production, and Employment indices all also improved, with new order growth jumping the most at 3.7 points to Although the Inventories and Backlog of Orders indices contracted by 1.5 and 3.0 points, respectively, comments from ISM respondents generally indicate stable to strong demand, with some concerns cited over increasing oil prices and European stability. Even though movement was meager, the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price index improved by 0.2 points in ruary to making it only the second time in the past two years that the organization s index has shown an increase. In addition, twelve of the twenty cities tracked in the index had home prices increase, including the embodiment of the real estate bubble, Las Vegas. While the number of homes available for sale as reported by the National Association of Realtors declined by 2% in in ch, unfortunately so did existing home sales and residential permits for single-family homes, by 3 and 10 percent, respectively. In all, the slower economic pace of the past two months relative to the start of the year is more in line with expectations that economic growth this year will remain modest. That said, consumer confidence weathered the most recent spike in gasoline prices much better than what was seen last year and has remained at a level rarely seen over the past four years. This is a trend that bodes well for continued growth in consumer spending, especially for those items or services considered to be of high relative value e.g. new and used automobile sales or food and drinking place services. 4

5 Used Price Comparison USED PRICE COMPARISON: GAS vs. HYBRID COMPACT CARS Price growth for hybrids muted compared to previous fuel spikes. Every time gasoline prices spike a model s overall efficiency dictates whether or not used prices suffer or improve as the fiscal burden of filling the tank becomes more pronounced. In terms of appreciation, no type of vehicle has had prices grow more through prior fuel surges than compact hybrids, or more specifically, the hybrid version of the Honda Civic and the Toyota Prius. As gasoline prices crested to what is still a historic high of $4.11 per gallon from January through July of 2008, used prices for the two hybrid models shot up by 37%, while prices for gas-only compacts grew by a mere 22% (vehicles up to five years in age, mileage and mix adjusted). Last year when gasoline prices rose by $.81 through May, used hybrid prices grew by 41% while prices for their non-hybrid counterparts increased by 27%. Certainly the natural disasters in Japan were also influencing prices at the time, but the point remains clear; when gas prices go up, so do prices for compact hybrids by a lot. This year things have played out a bit differently. The $.52 increase in the price of gasoline since the start of the year has once again pressured up used prices for all compact cars hybrid or otherwise well beyond the seasonal lift normally associated with the time of the year. Through April, gas-only compact car prices have increased by 16%, while hybrid prices have grown by 17%. Although non-hybrid growth is averaging 9 points back of the appreciation witnessed during the gas spikes of 08 and 11, this figure pales in comparison to the 22 point difference for hybrid models. There are a few probable causes that can be associated to this year s result. For starters, today s gasoline powered cars are substantially more fuel efficient than their predecessors. For example, combined fuel economy for the 2012 versions of the Ford Focus and Honda Civic are 11 and 10 percent better, respectively, than their 2008 model year counterparts. Even better, fuel economy for the 2012 Hyundai Elantra has improved by a substantial 18% relative to the 08 version. On the hybrid side, the 12 version of the Toyota Prius is 9% more efficient while the current incarnation of the Civic hybrid is only 5% more miserly again, both relative to the 08 model year. Perhaps more significantly, as gasoline prices dip, demand for hybrids tends to plummet well beyond the slow-down in demand witnessed on gas-only versions. As a result, hybrid prices have been more volatile through periods of rapidly changing gasoline prices. While this increases the opportunity associated with buying when the market is at a low point, it also increases the risk associated with buying when prices are at their highest (see chart on next page). Gasoline & Hybrid Used Price Movement: Compact Cars Change in used price through gasoline price surges. Vehicles up to 5 years in age. Period Gas-Only Compact Hybrid Compact Gasoline Price $ % $ % $ Jan - Jul, 2008 $1,768 22% $5,843 37% $1.02 Jan - May, 2011 $2,397 27% $5,415 41% $0.81 Jan - Apr, 2012 $1,564 16% $2,432 17% $0.52 Underlying data has been adjusted for mileage and mix. 5

6 Used Vehicle Prices (Indexed to Jan. 2010) Guidelines May 2012 Used Price Comparison (continued ) Case in point, as gasoline prices expanded through the first third of last year, prices for a 2009 Toyota Prius grew by nearly $4,500 from January through April; fast forward to the fall and prices for the same Prius had dropped by $4,800. Considering gas engine efficiency advancements combined with the still-fresh memories of last year, it s not surprising to see dealers and consumers alike showing more restraint in their demand for compact hybrid cars. With year-to-date price growth averaging over $2,400 or 55% less than what was seen last year, these factors have already worked to reduce hybrid price volatility and the associated risk through this year s gasoline price surge. That said, because hybrid prices have increased by two points more than those of gas-only compacts through April, NADA still expects a steeper drop once prices start to regress through the summer and into the fall. Gasoline & Hybrid Used Price Movement: Compact Cars Vehicles up to 5 years in age. 180 Gasoline Price Gas Hybrid ket $ $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 Regular Grade Gas Price (All Formulations) 60 $1.50 Source: Source: CNW BLS NADA, EIA Month Not only have prices for gas-only compact cars been less volatile than prices of hybrids, but overall appreciation since 2010 at 46 v. 27 percent, respectively has been better as well. 6

7 Official Used Car Guide 2012MY Used Value Spotlight Chevrolet Volt & Nissan Leaf As many know, both the Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt differ from familiar hybrids like the Toyota Prius in that they can be run on 100% electricity for a predetermined distance before the operator needs to plug the vehicle in to recharge the battery packs. The fully electric Leaf has an advertised range of 100 miles on a single charge while the Volt is advertised to supply up to 35 continuous miles of use per charge. The extended range EV Volt also boasts an onboard gasoline generator which will extend the total operating range up to 375 miles. Valued for the first time in May s edition of the Official Used Car Guide, average trade-in values for the 2011 Leaf SV and 2011 Volt were placed at $23,957 and $29,785, respectively (national average). Clean retail values for the two came in at $28,182 and $35,187. After factoring in the onetime federal tax credit of $7,500, typically equipped new prices on the 2011 Leaf SV and 2011 Volt come in at $25,280 and $32,780, respectively. Dividing these figures into NADA s average trade-in values translates into initial used value retention of 95% for the Leaf and 91% for the Volt. Although NADA s used retail values exceed the original MSRP less the federal tax credit for each model, transaction data clearly shows that a market premium is being garnered by each model above and beyond these adjusted figures. Near-term, NADA Used Car Guide analysts are predicting that values for these two green car contenders will remain stable because of persistently high gasoline prices and low used supply. As we go through the fourth quarter and into the first part of next year however, NADA is predicting that used supply for each model will start to increase appreciably and that used values will soften as a result. Toyota Camry & Volkswagen Passat Over the first quarter of the year, new sales for mid-size cars have grown by 26% which is double the rate of growth for the overall market and six points better than gains made by their compact car counterparts. Certainly high gasoline prices have played a role in promoting sales for the segment, but results are also due in large part to 2012 model year redesigns of two notable models; the Toyota Camry and the Volkswagen Passat. Initial consumer reaction to a major redesign can have a deep and lasting impact on a manufacturer s bottom line. Well received updates contribute to overall brand value while poorly received ones can force a manufacturer to make updates sooner than planned Honda s new Civic is a good example of this. In addition, manufacturers will have to increase incentive spending in order to move metal which chips away at overall profitability and negatively affects used value retention. Certainly both Toyota and VW are hoping for the former and not the latter as they strive to conquer the common goals of increasing market share without sacrificing profitability. At Toyota, the Camry will be a cornerstone in the brand s attempt to regain market share lost due to last year s barrage of natural disasters. So far things are off to a promising start as sales of the redesigned model are up 38% on a quarter-over-quarter basis and last month Toyota sold almost 37k new Camrys for a 21% improvement over last April. 7

8 Official Used Car Guide Used Value Spotlight (continued ) As for the Volkswagen Passat, after a brief hiatus during the 2011 model year, sales are back and stronger than ever. Through the first four months of 2012, VW has sold over 34k new Passats, with over 20k of these sales coming in in the past two months. To put things into perspective, combined total new sales of the previous generation Passat during its final two years of production were just shy of 24k units. In terms of the used vehicle market, NADA s analysts valued each model for the first time in May s edition of the Official Used Car Guide. Average trade-in values for the 2012 Volkswagen Passat 2.5L SE (equipped with automatic transmission) and the 2012 Toyota Camry LE 2.5 were placed at $20,935 and $19,005, respectively (national average). These figures equate to retention of 84% for each model (average trade-in value divided by equipped MSRP), which places their retained value five points above the current segment mean (79%) and in a tie for second place three points back of Kia s segment leading Optima (87%). Next year, age and competing demand for 2013 model year redesigns of the Chevy Malibu, Ford Fusion, Honda Accord, and Nissan Altima will most likely apply downward pressure to retained value, but for the time being the Camry and Passat find themselves in a strong position of used value strength Model Year Mid-Size Car Value Retention Make Model Value Retention 2012 Redesign Kia Optima 87% No Toyota Camry 84% Yes Volkswagen Passat 84% Yes Honda Accord 84% No Hyundai Sonata 84% No Mazda Mazda6 79% No Ford Fusion 77% No Nissan Altima 74% No Chrysler % No Dodge Avenger 73% No Chevrolet Malibu 73% No Segment Average 79% *Value Retention is calculated by taking May 2012 NADA Average Trade-In value divided by equipped MSRP 8

9 ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Update New and Used Class 8 kets Exhibit Divergent Trends The new and used Class 8 markets are moving in different directions. New truck orders have declined each month in 2012, while used sleeper tractor pricing has remained at a historically high level despite ever-increasing mileage. In this edition, we will compare the relationship between new and used trucks and forecast how these markets might change going forward. Starting with used trucks, retail sales reported to NADA show that the average sleeper tractor sold in the first quarter of 2012 cost $47,775, had 545,965 miles, and was 73.3 months old. Compared to the first quarter of 2011, price was up $3657, or 7.7%; mileage was up 35,205, or 6.4%; and age was up 1.7 months, or 2.3%. See graph for detail. Retail buyers continue to look to late-model sleeper tractors as a substitute for high-priced new trucks. Customers seem to have accepted that affordability of trucks with under 500,000 miles is a challenge, and have found a comfort level paying mid- to high- $40 s for trucks with mileage moderately above that point. See the Mileage/Price graph to see how mileage influences selling price. The benchmark four-year-old sleeper tractor averaged $70,047 and had 399,069 miles in Q Compared to Q1 2011, price was up $4707, or 6.7%, and mileage was essentially equal. Note that in 2012 this group is comprised of the 2009 model year the first full model year to be equipped with Diesel Particulate Filters. Despite apprehension about increased maintenance and potential reliability issues, the presence of a DPF does not hinder pricing in the marketplace. The need for late-model iron overrides these concerns. See graph for details. On the wholesale side, the average sleeper tractor sold at auction or dealer-to-dealer in the first quarter cost $35,191, had 618,571 miles, and was 72.0 months old. Compared to Q1 2011, wholesale price was up $6015, or 15.6%; mileage was down by 9235, or 1.5%; and age was up 8.3 months, or 11.6%. See graph for detail. Like last year, there was a dip in the wholesale markets from ruary to ch, with an increase in average mileage. This trend is likely due at least in part to increased deliveries of new trucks at the end of 2010 and Large packages of trade-ins resulting from these new truck sales typically take a couple of months to filter in to the secondary market, which would make a ch dip logical. Moving over to the new truck market, recent order activity has piqued our interest. Specifically, new Class 8 orders have fallen every month since January, and Q lags Q by 3680 units, or 17.0%. To assess the implications of this trend, we must view it in the context of the economic recovery. Looking back, new truck order activity in 2010 started out slow, with only 4525 trucks in January. By ch, that number had doubled, and after a dip in July and August, eventually shot up to the 20,000 mark by the 4 th quarter maintained this high level in the 1 st quarter, peaking in ch with 32,809 orders. Activity retrenched considerably in the 2 nd quarter, and then picked back up going into the 4 th quarter to bring the monthly average back up over 20,000 units. Given this fluctuation, as well as the unusual economic conditions of the past four years, we will refrain from assigning too much importance to 2012 s downward trend. Keep in mind that new truck orders also exhibited a 3-month decline from May to July of (Continued on page 10) 9

10 Jan-10 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-11 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-12 Guidelines May 2012 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) last year, only to rebound late in the 3 rd quarter and finish out the year strong. Tying new trucks to used trucks, wholesale sales reported to NADA show a steep increase in volume in early 2010, followed by a steep drop in mid-2010 to a level that has remained consistent to the current time (see graph). This trend suggests that replacement activity may have been front-loaded to an extent, with the largest packages of trade-ins appearing early in the recovery. Potentially, then, later new truck orders may have been tied to factors other than critically aged equipment. Economic conditions would be a primary factor in this scenario. Since late 2009, freight demand throughout the recovery has been driven mainly by the industrial, mining, and natural resource sectors. These sectors rebounded first, providing the early boost to trucking. More recently, consumer spending has risen more notably than is typically mentioned, which should be further bolstering freight conditions. On the downside, the housing market has only slightly budged from its nadir; residential, commercial, and infrastructure construction are also struggling; and high unemployment is limiting steeper growth in consumer behavior. Overall, the domestic economy will continue to improve at a modest pace, with varying degrees of growth in each sector. As for used trucks, we expect recent price trends to hold steady to upwards, with mileage the primary factor. High new truck prices will ensure that late-model used trucks remain a popular alternative. In addition, the build rate of model year trucks essentially guarantees a lean returning supply of used trucks. Given that pricing has increased in the economic climate of the past three years, the more well-rounded recovery forecast for the upcoming multiyear period should result in a supply-demand relationship that supports strong used truck pricing. Note: While this edition focuses solely on the Class 8 sleeper market, other segments are analyzed periodically in our Commercial Truck Blog, located in the NADA Outlook section of Average Retail Price and Mileage: All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 Source: NADA 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage) 580, , , , , , , , , ,000 10

11 Jan-10 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-11 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-12 Guidelines May 2012 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) $120,000 Effect of Mileage on Retail Selling Price: All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles $100,000 $80,000 $60, To Date CY 2011 $40,000 $20,000 $0 Source: NADA Average Retail Price and Mileage: 4 Year Old Sleeper Tractors $75,000 $70,000 $65,000 MY2007 MY2008 MY $60,000 $55, $50, $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 Source: NADA Price Mileage

12 Jan-10 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-11 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-12 Jan-10 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-11 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-12 Guidelines May 2012 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) Average Wholesale Selling Price: All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Source: NADA 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage) 750, , , , , , , , Total Class 8 Wholesale Sales Reported to NADA Includes all Auction and Dealer-to-Dealer Sales Source: NADA 12

13 New Vehicle SAAR (millions) Average Incentive Spending Sales Volume (millions) Days of Supply Guidelines May 2012 New Vehicle Data New Vehicle Sales New Vehicle Sales YoY Change 20% 15% New Vehicle Days' Supply Days' Supply YoY Change % 5% Percent Change Day Change % % 0-12 Month Month Source: Wardsauto.com Source: Wardsauto.com New SAAR Days' Supply YoY Change 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Percent Change Incentives $2,800 $2,700 $2,600 $2,500 $2,400 $2,300 $2,200 $2,100 Average of Total YoY Change 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Percent Change 0 0% $2,000-20% Source: Wardsauto.com Month Source: Autodata Month Mainstream Brand Performance (Units Sold) Change From Apr Apr-11 Month Ago Year Ago Buick 15,446 13,105 18,413 18% -16% Chevrolet 155, , ,794-10% -8% Chrysler 31,879 34,726 20,379-8% 56% Dodge 66,753 79,819 63,580-16% 5% Fiat 3,849 3, % 336% Ford 173, , ,048-19% -5% GMC 32,603 34,337 31,204-5% 4% Honda 109, , ,195-5% -3% Hyundai 62,264 69,728 61,754-11% 1% Jeep 38,684 45,124 32,384-14% 19% Kia 47,550 57,505 47,074-17% 1% Mazda 21,506 32,376 20,638-34% 4% Mini 5,731 5,866 6,446-2% -11% Mitsubishi 5,280 7,160 8,081-26% -35% Nissan 64, ,132 64,765-49% -1% Scion 5,503 6,694 5,710-18% -4% Smart % 64% Subaru 26,310 32,387 24,762-19% 6% Suzuki 1,774 2,631 2,132-33% -17% Toyota 154, , ,254-12% 14% Volkswagen 37,525 36,588 28,542 3% 31% Luxury Brand Performance (Units Sold) Change From Apr Apr-11 Month Ago Year Ago Acura 12,175 11,166 11,604 9% 5% Audi 11,521 11,585 10,018-1% 15% BMW 21,062 23,940 18,801-12% 12% Cadillac 9,851 10,537 13,127-7% -25% Infiniti 5,050 9,645 6,761-48% -25% Jaguar 1,073 1,321 1,249-19% -14% Land Rover 3,292 4,199 2,982-22% 10% Lexus 17,551 20,140 17,576-13% 0% Lincoln 6,308 8,803 7,236-28% -13% Mercedes-Benz 22,336 23,134 18,041-3% 24% Porsche 3,437 2,460 3,172 40% 8% Volvo 4,848 6,692 6,404-28% -24% Source: IHS/Global Insight 13

14 Average Price Average Price Guidelines May 2012 Fuel Price Data Regular Grade Gasoline Prices (all formulations) $4.00 Average Price Per Gallon $3.80 $ YoY Change $1.20 $1.00 $3.60 $3.40 $3.20 $0.80 $0.60 $0.40 Price Change $3.00 $0.20 $2.80 $0.00 Source: EIA Month On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices $4.20 Average Price Per Gallon $4.10 $ YoY Change $1.20 $1.00 $4.00 $3.90 $3.80 $0.80 $0.60 $0.40 Price Change $3.70 $0.20 $3.60 $0.00 Source: EIA Month U.S Regular Gasoline Prices (dollars per gallon, all formulations) Change From Apr Apr-11 Month Ago Year Ago US $3.90 $3.85 $3.80 $0.05 $0.10 East Coast $3.90 $3.81 $3.76 $0.09 $0.14 Midwest $3.83 $3.82 $3.81 $0.01 $0.02 Gulf Coast $3.77 $3.68 $3.67 $0.09 $0.10 Rocky Mountain $3.79 $3.53 $3.58 $0.26 $0.21 West Coast $4.17 $4.22 $4.04 ($0.05) $0.13 Source: EIA U.S On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices (dollars per gallon) Change From Apr Apr-11 Month Ago Year Ago US $4.11 $4.13 $4.06 ($0.02) $0.05 East Coast $4.17 $4.18 $4.07 ($0.01) $0.10 Midwest $4.01 $4.02 $4.03 ($0.01) ($0.02) Gulf Coast $4.03 $4.04 $3.99 ($0.01) $0.04 Rocky Mountain $4.11 $4.08 $4.09 $0.03 $0.02 West Coast $4.38 $4.41 $4.28 ($0.03) $

15 Index Value Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Monthly, Ths.) Guidelines May 2012 Economic Data Unemployment and Consumer Confidence are two of the most important economic drivers behind both a consumer s ability and willingness to make a new or used vehicle purchase, and are provided as indicators on the future outlook for both markets. Employment Total Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate, SA Nonfarm Payroll Change Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate (%) Source: BLS Month Consumer Confidence Index Source: The BLS Conference Board Month 15

16 NADAguides.com Consumer Site Trends New Activity About NADAguides.com NADAguides.com is the most comprehensive vehicle information website on the internet today, offering a broad range of information and services to help educate consumers in the market to buy, sell, trade, or simply shop for a vehicle. NADAguides is an alliance partner of NADA Services Corporation. The figures contained below are based on consumer activity at and are calculated by measuring the number of unique lookups for a given period of time. Audi Chrysler Chevrolet Mazda Porsche Volkswagen Land Rover Acura Jeep BMW GMC Nissan Volvo Subaru Mercedes-Benz MINI Scion Cadillac Toyota Suzuki Kia Honda Mitsubishi Dodge Infiniti Ford Jaguar Buick Hyundai Lincoln Lexus Saab Smart YoY Change in Consumer Activity: NEW Make -37% -38% Source: NADAguides.com -18% -14% -8% -9% -1% -1% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% 3% 2% Percent Change 5% 5% 9% 11% 11% 16% 16% 15% 14% 18% 17% 17% 22% 20% 24% 23% 29% 29% 28% 31% 31% 34% New: Top 15 Researched Models April 2012 April 2012 Rank MoM Change MODELYEARMAKE MODEL Infiniti FX50 2 (1) 2012 Ford F (1) 2012 Chevrolet Silverado (1) 2012 Toyota Camry Chevrolet Equinox 6 (2) 2012 Honda CR-V 7 (1) 2012 Ford Focus Ford Mustang Chevrolet Captiva Sport Fleet Honda Accord Sdn 11 (1) 2012 Nissan Altima 12 (3) 2012 Hyundai Sonata 13 (8) 2012 Toyota Tacoma Chevrolet Camaro Ram Truck 1500 New: Top 15 Researched Models April 2011 April 2011 Rank MY MAKE MODEL Ford F Hyundai Sonata Toyota Camry Chevrolet Silverado Honda Accord Sdn Chevrolet Equinox Chevrolet Camaro Kia Sorento Ford Mustang Ford Explorer Ford Fusion Toyota Tacoma Hyundai Elantra Honda CR-V Nissan Altima 16

17 NADAguides.com Consumer Site Trends Used Activity YoY Change in Consumer Activity: USED Make Saab Subaru Audi BMW Volvo MINI Volkswagen Mercedes-Benz Suzuki Infiniti Chevrolet Land Rover Jaguar Jeep Toyota Dodge GMC Mitsubishi Pontiac Ford Buick Honda Hummer Porsche Acura Mazda Chrysler Cadillac Kia Nissan Lincoln Lexus Scion Hyundai Mercury Saturn -6% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 2% 1% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 12% 11% 11% 9% 9% 16% 16% 15% 19% Source: NADAguides.com -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Percent Change Used: Top 15 Researched Models April 2012 Used: Top 15 Researched Models April 2011 April 2012 Rank MoM Change MAKE MODEL 1 0 Ford F Chevrolet Silverado Nissan ALTIMA 4 2 Chevrolet Impala 5 (1) Honda Accord Sdn 6 (1) Toyota Camry 7 0 Dodge Ram Ford Mustang 9 0 Toyota Corolla 10 3 BMW 3 Series 11 (1) Ford Focus 12 0 Ford Escape 13 (2) Chevrolet Cobalt 14 0 Chevrolet Malibu 15 1 Chevrolet Tahoe April 2011 Rank MAKE MODEL 1 Ford F Chevrolet Silverado Nissan Altima 4 Chevrolet Impala 5 Honda Accord Sdn 6 Toyota Camry 7 Dodge Ram Ford Mustang 9 Toyota Corolla 10 Ford Focus 11 Chevrolet Cobalt 12 Ford Super Duty F Ford Escape 14 Chevrolet Tahoe 15 Honda Civic Sdn 17

18 Percent Change Percent Change Guidelines May 2012 AuctionNet Wholesale ket Trends About AuctionNet AuctionNet is an industry-unique wholesale transaction database, available exclusively from NADA Used Car Guide, in joint partnership with the National Auto Auction Association (NAAA). Over 100 million records strong and updated weekly, it captures sales from all Manheim and ADESA, as well as participating ABC, ServNet and large independent auctions, representing over 80% of nationwide auction activity. Monthly AuctionNet Price Change - ch v. April, 2012 Vehicles 1-to-5 years in age, mileage and mix adjusted. 2.5% 2.0% 2.1% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% Compact Car Source: NADA Used Car Guide -0.2% Compact Utility Mid-Size Car Mid-Size Utility -0.2% -0.3% Mid-Size Van Large Pickup Large SUV Luxury Car Luxury Utility ket Segment Annual AuctionNet Price Change - April '11 v. April '12 Vehicles 1-to-5 years in age, mileage and mix adjusted. 8.0% 6.8% 7.2% 6.0% 4.0% 3.7% 2.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3% 2.6% 2.2% 0.0% -2.0% -2.0% -2.3% -4.0% Compact Car Source: WardsAuto.com NADA Used Car Guide Compact Utility Mid-Size Car Mid-Size Utility Mid-Size Van Large Pickup Large SUV Luxury Car Luxury Utility ket Segment 18

19 NADA Guidebook Value Trends Month-Over-Month Monthly Change in Average NADA Official Used Car Guide Value: NADA Segment April 2012 v. May 2012 NADA Segment 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY 2011MY* Compact Car 2.0% 1.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.0% Compact Utility 0.1% 0.1% -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% Large Pickup -0.8% -0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Large SUV -0.3% -0.6% 0.2% 0.3% -1.4% Luxury Car -1.2% -1.0% -0.9% -1.7% -1.6% Luxury Utility -1.0% -1.9% -1.9% -1.6% -1.1% Mid-Size Car 0.3% 0.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% Mid-Size Utility -0.4% -1.2% -0.3% -0.5% -0.6% Mid-Size Van -0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% -0.1% *Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. Monthly Change in Average ATD/NADA CTG Value: NADA Segment April 2012 v. May 2012 NADA Segment 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY* Commercial Van 0.0% -2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Extended Hood -0.2% -0.2% -0.8% -7.5% -4.0% Highway Aerodynamic -5.2% -5.3% -4.1% -6.6% -5.2% Highway Traditional 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% -6.5% -4.6% Local/Delivery Daycab -1.1% -1.2% -1.5% -3.5% -3.6% Medium Duty Cabover 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Medium Duty Conventional 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.1% 0.0% Vocational/Construction 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A *Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. 19

20 NADA Guidebook Value Trends Year-Over-Year Annual Change in NADA Official Used Car Guide Value: May, 2011 v NADA Segment 5YR 4YR 3YR 2YR 1YR YoY Segment Change Compact Car 7.7% 9.6% 7.4% 10.5% 6.3% 7.8% Compact Utility 10.2% 9.6% 8.2% 9.9% 5.3% 7.0% Large Pickup 16.0% 11.3% 9.7% 5.9% 9.5% 8.8% Large SUV 29.5% 14.5% 7.5% 3.4% 2.0% 7.0% Luxury Car 13.8% 10.6% 6.2% 8.0% 4.5% 9.6% Luxury Utility 9.8% 5.6% 10.2% 7.6% 3.6% 5.4% Mid-Size Car 9.5% 2.9% -1.1% 3.7% 5.3% 4.2% Mid-Size Utility 12.7% 9.5% 8.2% 6.7% 3.8% 5.4% Mid-Size Van 3.4% 21.2% 12.3% 8.0% 12.8% 14.2% *Calculations are based on vehicle age, i.e. values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2011 are compared against values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2010. Annual Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value: May, 2011 v NADA Segment 5YR 4YR 3YR 2YR YoY Segment Change Commercial Van 17.4% 30.2% -10.3% 0.5% 7.6% Extended Hood 22.2% 34.1% 8.5% -1.7% 15.2% Highway Aerodynamic 16.4% 42.2% 10.7% -0.8% 13.4% Highway Traditional 28.9% 33.7% 8.2% 1.4% 16.1% Local/Delivery Daycab 19.6% 37.9% 10.6% 2.3% 14.3% Medium Duty Cabover 34.9% 27.3% 1.3% N/A 15.1% Medium Duty Conventional 28.6% 31.4% 6.3% 2.5% 11.7% Vocational/Construction 20.4% 43.2% 4.4% N/A 17.3% *Calculations are based on vehicle age, i.e. values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2010 are compared against values for 1 year old vehicles in CY

21 NADA Guidebook Value Trends Year-To-Date YTD Change in NADA Official Used Car Guide Value: January May 2012 NADA Segment 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY 2011MY* YTD Segment Change Compact Car 6.8% 6.4% 7.7% 7.6% 6.2% 7.0% Compact Utility -2.6% -2.9% -2.2% -0.5% 0.3% -1.2% Large Pickup -0.3% -0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% Large SUV -0.3% -0.7% 0.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.4% Luxury Car -2.9% -2.6% -3.6% -3.3% -1.0% -1.7% Luxury Utility -5.0% -4.5% -5.0% -4.2% -2.5% -4.0% Mid-Size Car 3.6% 4.3% 5.7% 4.9% 3.5% 4.4% Mid-Size Utility -3.0% -2.8% -1.7% -1.5% -0.2% -1.7% Mid-Size Van -4.5% -2.8% -3.1% -1.7% -0.8% -2.3% YTD Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value: January May 2012 NADA Segment 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY* YTD Segment Change Commercial Van -5.3% -4.6% -4.8% 2.9% 2.5% -1.3% Extended Hood 0.4% 2.0% -5.7% -13.6% -12.5% -3.6% Highway Aerodynamic -5.5% -4.9% -9.1% -14.4% -11.3% -8.5% Highway Traditional 0.7% 3.2% -5.4% -13.2% -10.7% -4.4% Local/Delivery Daycab -0.7% 0.6% -6.1% -9.3% -9.7% -4.5% Medium Duty Cabover -0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% N/A 0.5% Medium Duty Conventional -1.4% -3.6% -1.1% -9.1% -5.2% -3.7% Vocational/Construction 0.0% 0.0% -3.4% -5.9% N/A 4.5% 21

22 At NADA Used Car Guide NADA ket News Recently, NADA published a white paper titled Used Vehicle Supply: Future Outlook and the Impact on Used Vehicle Prices to address the steady decline of used vehicle supply over the past few years due to the substantial drop-off in new vehicle sales and lease originations. In fact, NADA estimates that the supply of used vehicles up to five years in age was 17% lower in 2011 than it was in If you are interested in downloading a copy of NADA s white paper, please visit Jonathan Bank s most recent blog post, titled When Will Used Supply Stop Falling?, available in the Used Car & Truck blog section on our web site ( In addition to gaining access to NADA s long-term used supply forecast, the paper will leave readers with a better understanding of just how influential used supply has been on used vehicle prices to-date and how this critical component will continue to support prices near-term. CONTACTS: Financial Industry/ Accounting/ Legal/OEM Captive Steve Stafford x7275 sstafford@nada.org Credit Unions, Fleet/Lease/ Rental Industry, Government Doug Ott x4710 dott@nada.org Automotive Dealers/Auctions, Insurance Jim Dodd x7115 jdodd@nada.org Automotive OEMs Stu Zalud x4636 szalud@nada.org Business Development Manager Jim Gibson x7136 jgibson@nada.org Director Sales and Customer Service Dan Ruddy x4707 druddy@nada.org About NADA Used Car Guide Over a 79-year history, NADA Used Car Guide has earned its reputation as the leading provider of market-reflective vehicle valuation products, services and information to businesses throughout the U.S. and worldwide. NADA s editorial team collects and analyzes over one million combined wholesale and retail automotive-related transaction prices per month. Its guidebooks, auction data, analysis, and data solutions offer automotive, financial, insurance, and government professionals the timely information and reliable solutions they need to make better business decisions. Visit Director Public Relations Charles Cyrill (mobile) ccyrill@nada.org Disclaimer: NADA Used Car Guide makes no representations about future performance or results based on the data and the contents available in this report ("Guidelines"). Guidelines is provided for informational purposes only and is provided AS IS without warranty or guarantee of any kind. By accessing Guidelines via or the NADA website, you agree not to reprint, reproduce, or distribute Guidelines without the express written permission of NADA Used Car Guide. 22