ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Update

Transcription

1 ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Update Late-Model Sleeper Pricing Breaks Record The big story this month is the record-setting retail price level of late-model sleeper tractors. Four-year-old sleepers brought $72,108 in January, which is $2589 (or 3.6%) higher than the previous high point set in January, 2011 (see graph). Average mileage for these two periods was nearly identical, so the increase indicates that demand remains extremely strong for low-mileage sleeper tractors. By contrast, average-mileage sleeper trucks were nearly unchanged from December, 2011 (see graph). With mileage near the record high, the price ceiling for sleepers of this mileage level appears to remain in effect. Buyers appear unwilling to pay much more than mid-$40 s for a sleeper tractor with mileage in the mid-500 s. This spread between low and average mileage iron (see graph) continues to widen because demand for low-mileage units still greatly exceeds supply. The low build of model year trucks combined with extended trade cycles during the downturn ensure that very few low-mileage trucks will be available on the secondary market. Drilling deeper into our database, owner-operator sleeper tractors continue to outperform their aerodynamic counterparts (see graph). As we ve discussed in our Commercial Vehicle Blog, buyers still place a premium on traditionally-styled sleeper tractors even in this age when fuel economy is of critical importance. One reason for this premium is the much smaller number of owneroperator trucks available in the marketplace - our database of owner-operator sleeper tractors is only 11.4% of our sleeper data overall. The other main selling point of a traditionally-styled truck is that its sleeper unit is frequently easier to remove, which increases the truck s versatility. Increased versatility in the secondary and tertiary markets is a main reason why daycabs continue to outperform sleepers. Even after adjusting for mileage, four-year-old daycabs commanded a $4118 premium on average in January (see graph). This is down from the $7885 average premium in calendar year 2011, but month-to-month fluctuations are typical due to the limited number of daycabs in the marketplace at any given time. For reference, the daycab population in this study is 23.6% the size of the sleeper population. Moving over to the wholesale channel, sleeper tractors overall performed strongly, bringing an average of $36,649 in January. This figure represents an increase of $3199 (or 8.7%) over December, However, mileage was much lower in January in fact, the lowest it s been since February of 2011 which explains the price increase. Compared with that previous low mileage month, January s result is only $500 lower, so demand appears consistent. Looking at the wholesale price graph, you can see how price pulls back as mileage nears (and hits) the 650K mark, and then rebounds on lower mileage. Since January of 2011, the correlation of price to mileage is -0.89, indicating a fairly strong negative relationship. For reference, since January of 2011, the average wholesale selling price of trucks with over 650,000 miles is $27,168. The average of trucks with under 650K is $35,153. (Continued on page 2) 1

2 Jan-10 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-11 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-12 Guidelines March 2012 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) Looking at medium duty segments, Class 3-4 Cabovers swung upwards nicely for January, posting an average wholesale price of $10,385 (see graph). This figure is the highest since April of last year. Mileage for this group, at 127,609, was 5310 (or 4.0%) lower than the 2011 average. This minor decrease in mileage is not enough to explain the increase in pricing. Increased consumer spending could be at work here, positively impacting the urban delivery and daily rental markets. Class 6 Conventionals also posted a solid result, with their average wholesale price of $13,594 the highest in four months (see graph). Mileage was moderately lower than the 2011 average by 15,143 (or 9.2%), which likely explains most of the price increase. However, compared to months with similar mileage, January s result was on the high side. This suggests a possible firming up of demand in this segment. Looking forward, our forecast of continued strong pricing for low-mileage sleeper tractors is unchanged. We expect the retail price ceiling on average-mileage sleepers to remain in place, with mileage in the mid-500 s or higher negatively impacting value. A price ceiling should remain in place in the wholesale market as well, with 650,000 miles the inflection point in that channel. Daycabs and owner-operator trucks should continue to hold their premium over aerodynamic sleeper tractors, primarily due to the increased utility of a non-sleeper truck in the higher-mileage segment. As for medium duty trucks, lighter-duty Cabovers will likely $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $55,000 $45,000 $35,000 $25,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 Average Retail Selling Price: 4 Year Old Sleeper Tractors Adjusted for Mileage Price Mileage Average Retail Selling Price: All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average Retail Selling Price: 4 Year Old vs. All Sleeper Tractors 2008 Avg. Spread: $ Avg. Spread: $ Avg. Spread: $ Avg. Spread: $17, start to trend upwards before heavier Conventionals. This is due to the Conventional segment s exposure to more diffi- All Sleepers 4YO Sleepers cult economic sectors such as light construction, landscaping, and residential services. Look for the lowest-mileage trucks in both groups to be cherry-picked out of the market as they become available. 2

3 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) General economic conditions will continue to improve, positively impacting all segments of the used truck market. Currently, the biggest threat to an accelerated rebound is fuel prices. While the price of diesel is of course critical to a trucking company s bottom line, the price of gasoline is also of concern due to its impact on consumer spending. Luckily, we do not currently forecast the price of gas rising much above $4/gal., which should not seriously affect the economic recovery. In addition, demand for freight continues to be driven by the industrial sector, so any fluctuations in consumer spending will have an indirect impact to trucking activity overall. $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 Average Retail Selling Price: Aerodynamic vs. Owner-Operator Sleeper Tractors All Model Years Under 1M Miles Aero O/O Adjusted O/O Unadjusted Be sure to check our Commercial Vehicle Blog at for real-time updates on our data. A video synopsis of this update is also located there. $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 Average Retail Selling Price: 4 Year Old Highway Daycabs vs. Sleepers 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Daycabs) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Sleepers) Average Wholesale Selling Price: All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles $45, $35, $25, $15, $5,000 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage)

4 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) Average Wholesale Selling Price: All Class 3-4 Cabovers Under 300K Miles $12, $8, $6, $4,000 $2,000 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage) Average Wholesale Selling Price: All Class 6 Conventionals Under 400K Miles $18, $16, $14, $12,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage)

5 Guidebook Value Trends Month-Over-Month Monthly Change in Average Official Used Car Guide Value: NADA Segment February 2012 v. March 2012 NADA Segment 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY 2011MY* Compact Car 1.1% 1.4% 1.5% 2.0% 1.3% Compact Utility -1.2% -1.7% -0.5% 0.2% 0.5% Large Pickup 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% Large SUV 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 1.7% Luxury Car -0.5% -0.3% -0.7% -0.3% 0.7% Luxury Utility -1.7% -0.6% -1.4% -0.8% -0.3% Mid-Size Car 1.1% 0.7% 1.0% 1.7% 1.1% Mid-Size Utility -0.8% -0.5% -0.3% 0.1% 0.6% Mid-Size Van -1.4% -1.8% -1.6% -0.2% 0.2% *Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. Monthly Change in Average CTG Value: NADA Segment February 2012 v. March 2012 NADA Segment 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY* Commercial Van -3.5% -1.4% -2.1% -5.1% -5.3% Extended Hood -0.3% 1.0% -4.8% -5.8% -5.1% Highway Aerodynamic 0.0% 0.2% -5.0% -6.3% -4.9% Highway Traditional -0.2% 2.1% -4.9% -6.1% -5.2% Local/Delivery Daycab -0.1% 1.0% -4.6% -6.0% -5.4% Medium Duty Cabover 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.9% -3.7% Medium Duty Conventional 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -3.7% -3.6% Vocational/Construction 0.0% 0.0% -2.0% -5.9% N/A *Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. 5

6 Guidebook Value Trends Year-Over-Year NADA Used Car Guide Value Change: March, 2011 v YoY Segment NADA Segment 5YR 4YR 3YR 2YR 1YR Change Compact Car 11.0% 14.8% 11.5% 15.9% 14.2% 15.0% Compact Utility 12.5% 11.4% 10.9% 11.1% 5.9% 8.7% Large Pickup 13.2% 9.1% 7.2% 3.9% 7.7% 6.7% Large SUV 24.2% 10.4% 3.9% 0.7% 1.3% 4.3% Luxury Car 15.8% 12.5% 8.3% 10.0% 12.0% 20.2% Luxury Utility 11.9% 9.1% 13.5% 9.9% 9.4% 10.1% Mid-Size Car 17.4% 8.9% 4.2% 8.5% 11.7% 12.5% Mid-Size Utility 12.8% 10.1% 7.8% 7.1% 5.0% 6.1% Mid-Size Van 5.9% 23.2% 13.1% 9.3% 11.1% 16.0% *Calculations are based on vehicle age. I.e. Values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2011 are compared against values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2010. ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value Change: March, 2011 v YoY Segment NADA Segment 5YR 4YR 3YR 2YR Change Commercial Van 20.7% 33.1% -17.2% -3.8% 6.1% Extended Hood 19.0% 26.9% 15.6% 3.0% 14.0% Highway Aerodynamic 18.7% 36.6% 12.0% 0.4% 12.4% Highway Traditional 23.4% 24.8% 14.0% 3.5% 14.0% Local/Delivery Daycab 19.0% 31.3% 10.8% 2.9% 12.2% Medium Duty Cabover 34.9% 27.3% 1.3% N/A 15.1% Medium Duty Conventional 29.2% 30.2% 9.4% 7.9% 13.8% Vocational/Construction 20.2% 45.0% 6.0% N/A 23.7% *Calculations are based on vehicle age. I.e. Values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2010 are compared against values for 1 year old vehicles in CY

7 Guidebook Value Trends Year-To-Date NADA Used Car Guide Value Change: January March 2012 YTD Segment NADA Segment 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY* Change Compact Car 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 2.4% 1.9% Compact Utility -1.7% -1.2% -2.2% -0.9% 0.0% -1.0% Large Pickup 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% Large SUV -0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 1.4% 0.7% Luxury Car -0.7% -0.8% -0.7% -1.1% -0.4% -0.7% Luxury Utility -1.0% -1.5% -0.4% -1.2% -0.9% -1.0% Mid-Size Car 0.9% 1.1% 0.9% 1.5% 2.3% 1.4% Mid-Size Utility -1.2% -0.9% -0.5% -0.2% 0.4% -0.4% Mid-Size Van -2.1% -3.0% -3.0% -3.4% -2.0% -2.4% ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value Change: January March 2012 YTD Segment NADA Segment 2005MY 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY Change Commercial Van 0.0% -3.5% -1.9% -2.7% -5.1% -2.2% Extended Hood 1.9% 0.6% 2.1% -4.9% -6.3% -1.0% Highway Aerodynamic 0.1% -0.3% 0.4% -5.2% -7.8% -2.0% Highway Traditional 1.5% 0.7% 3.2% -4.9% -6.6% -0.4% Local/Delivery Daycab 0.8% 0.4% 1.9% -4.6% -6.1% -1.1% Medium Duty Cabover -3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A -0.5% Medium Duty Conventional -0.6% -0.3% -3.2% -0.7% -5.6% -1.3% Vocational/Construction 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -2.0% -5.9% -0.3% 7

8 At NADA Used Car Guide ON THE ROAD NADA Used Car Guide employees will be actively participating in a variety of tradeshows in the upcoming months. To begin, we are a sponsor at the Conference of Automotive Remarketing (CAR), which will be held from March 14-15, 2012 at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas. NADA Executive Automotive Analyst, Jonathan Banks will be a contributing panelist in the session, Forecast of Residual Values: , on Wednesday, March 14. This is a conference for consignors and is packed with real take home benefits including a chance to talk with industry veterans and it provides a forum to learn from the best. Next, Account Executive, Steve Stafford will be exhibiting at CBA LIVE, the Consumer Bankers Association conference, Booth 5B. CBA LIVE features lively discussions regarding the banking industry, inspiring general session speakers and a wealth of information generated from roundtable sessions. The conference will be held March at the Hilton Austin Hotel in Austin, TX. To wrap up tradeshows for the next month, we will take part in the Digital Dealer Conference which will be held April 3-5, 2012 in Orlando, FL. Stu Zalud, Director of Dealer Services, will present at a workshop entitled, How the Gen Y Demand Has Changed the Appraisal Process. He will review how influential the Gen Y customer is and their how to manage their expectations during the appraisal process. This session #228 will be held Wednesday, April 4 at 2:30 p.m. Additionally, Stu and Account Executive, Jim Dodd will be representing NADA Used Car Guide at Booth 740 at this conference. Stop by and receive a demo on our appraisal products: NADA AppraisalPRO and NADA Online. CONTACTS: Financial Industry/ Accounting/ Legal/OEM Captive Steve Stafford x7275 sstafford@nada.org Credit Unions, Fleet/Lease/ Rental Industry, Government Doug Ott x4710 dott@nada.org Automotive Dealers/Auctions, Insurance Jim Dodd x7115 jdodd@nada.org Automotive OEMs Stu Zalud x4636 szalud@nada.org Business Development Manager Jim Gibson x7136 jgibson@nada.org Director Sales and Customer Service Dan Ruddy x4707 druddy@nada.org About NADA Used Car Guide Over a 79-year history, NADA Used Car Guide has earned its reputation as the leading provider of market-reflective vehicle valuation products, services and information to businesses throughout the U.S. and worldwide. NADA s editorial team collects and analyzes over one million combined wholesale and retail automotive-related transaction prices per month. Its guidebooks, auction data, analysis, and data solutions offer automotive, financial, insurance, and government professionals the timely information and reliable solutions they need to make better business decisions. Visit Director Public Relations Charles Cyrill (mobile) ccyrill@nada.org Disclaimer: NADA Used Car Guide makes no representations about future performance or results based on the data and the contents available in this report ("Guidelines"). Guidelines is provided for informational purposes only and is provided AS IS without warranty or guarantee of any kind. By accessing Guidelines via or the NADA website, you agree not to reprint, reproduce, or distribute Guidelines without the express written permission of NADA Used Car Guide. 8