ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Update

Transcription

1 ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Update Average Pricing Remains High while Volume Decreases Average retail and wholesale pricing for class 8 sleeper tractors remains at a historically high plateau. May s retail number was essentially equal to April s, although mileage was lower. The wholesale market exhibited some consistency in May, with average price and mileage similar to April s. For the fourth year in a row, May was a weak month for retail sales per dealership. The average retail price of a sleeper tractor sold in May was $48,738. Average mileage was 538,073. Price was nearly identical to April s result of $48,809, while mileage was lower than April s 554,402 figure. The mileage drop of 16,329 is mild, but it does cross back under the 550,000 mile barrier. Year-over-year, this month s result is 8.6% ahead of May, 2011 on price, while mileage is 4.2% higher. The market continues to tolerate prices in the high-$40 s for trucks with mileage in the low to mid-500 s. As a reality check, look at the average prices for trucks in the ,000 mile range. These trucks have not changed by any appreciable amount vs. April. We continue to view the retail market as steady at a high level. Four-year-old sleepers continue to bring strong money despite being the first full model year equipped with Diesel Particulate Filters. May s average price of $69,580 was comfortably ahead of April s $65,759 result, while May s average mileage of 435,311 was slightly lower than April s 444,918 result. Year-over-year, May, 2012 s pricing was a healthy 10.1% higher than May, 2011, while mileage was 5.2% higher. The market continues to place a premium on late-model, relatively low-mileage trucks DPF or no DPF. On the wholesale side, volatility in average price and mileage subsided for one month. The average wholesale price paid for a sleeper tractor in May was $32,597. Average mileage was 633,327. This result compares favorably to April s average price of $30,591 and mileage of 640,980. Year-over-year, May, 2012 s average price blew away May, 2011 s by 20.6%. However, May, 2011 s average mileage was 5.5% higher, and on the wrong side of the 650,000 mile barrier. Still, current pricing is strong by any measure. Expect this trend to continue for trucks with under 650,000 miles. This month, we will also take a look at medium duty trucks. Starting with conventionals, the graph shows that there has been a near-perfect negative correlation between price and mileage since January of this year. This means that the market has established a ceiling on what trucks of a given mileage are worth. We currently estimate that pricing meets resistance at roughly the 135,000 mile level. Trucks with mileage under that level should trend higher than average on price, and the opposite should be true for trucks with mileage over that level. Given the relatively steady number of trucks sold each month combined with the logical relationship between price and mileage, we consider the medium duty conventional market steady. We expect this segment to trend flat to upwards. Moving over to cabovers, since early 2011, average pricing has fluctuated from a high of $11,468 to a low of $8089. From that low to high point, mileage has only fluctuated by about 7300 from 126,247 to 133,541. One factor at work here is the relatively low sales volume of these trucks. Most months are under 200 units, which doesn t provide a lot of smoothing out of month-to-month variation in age or condition. Another factor is the occasional large influx of tradeins from rental companies hitting the auction lanes at the same time. Those trucks could have an outsized impact on a monthly (Continued on page 2) 1

2 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) average. Based on this relatively opaque data, we will refrain from making judgments about the cabover market until a clearer price/mileage relationship starts to form. Moving on to sales volume, retail sales per dealership dropped notably from April to May. May s result of 5.6 was one full truck lower than April. This result is 0.2 trucks, or 3.4% higher than last May. Interestingly, May has been a weak month for the past four years. In both 2010 and 2011, sales volume rebounded in June. Another factor here is that one of our large dealer groups failed to report sales this month. That group typically posts sales per dealership higher than the average, which could explain a tenth or two of the decline. As such, we are minimally concerned about May s result. With pricing showing no signs of downward movement, May s lower volume is not a reliable indication of shifting demand. As we stated last month, we do not expect any notable changes in the used truck market for the remainder of the year. Fundamentally, the domestic economy will likely remain sluggish until after the Presidential Election, and the returning supply of used trucks continues to support high pricing. Be sure to check our Commercial Vehicle Blog at twice per week for real-time updates on this and other data. Average Retail Price and Mileage - All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $85,000 $75,000 $65,000 Price Mileage Avg. Retail Selling Price: All Sleeper Tractors between K Mi. Average Retail Price and Mileage: 4 Year Old Sleeper Tractors 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY $55, $45, $35,000 $25,000 Price Mileage

3 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) Average Wholesale Price and Mileage: All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles $45, $40,000 $35,000 $30, $25, $20, $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage) $17,000 $16,000 $15,000 $14,000 $13,000 Average Wholesale Price: All Medium Duty Conventionals Under 400,000 Mi $12,000 $11,000 $10,000 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage)

4 Jan-10 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-11 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-12 Feb Mar Apr May Guidelines July 2012 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) $15,000 $14,000 $13,000 $12,000 $11,000 $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 Average Wholesale Price: All Class 3-7 Cabovers Under 350,000 Miles 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage) Average Number of Sales Per Rooftop (NADA Reporting Dealers) Retail Wholesale

5 NADA Guidebook Value Trends Month-Over-Month Monthly Change in Average NADA Official Used Car Guide Value: NADA Segment June 2012 v. July 2012 NADA Segment 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY 2011MY* Compact Car -3.0% -3.4% -3.2% -3.2% -3.6% Compact Utility -2.2% -2.3% -2.2% -2.5% -2.5% Large Pickup -1.7% -1.9% -1.0% -0.9% -1.2% Large SUV -0.9% -1.6% -1.4% -2.2% -2.2% Luxury Car -1.9% -1.6% -2.0% -1.8% -2.1% Luxury Utility -1.6% -1.7% -2.4% -2.3% -2.1% Mid-Size Car -3.5% -3.8% -4.2% -3.8% -3.9% Mid-Size Utility -2.4% -2.2% -2.1% -1.8% -2.1% Mid-Size Van -1.7% -0.9% -1.4% -2.6% -2.6% *Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. Monthly Change in Average ATD/NADA CTG Value: NADA Segment June 2012 v. July 2012 NADA Segment 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY* Commercial Van 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Extended Hood 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Highway Aerodynamic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Highway Traditional 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Local/Delivery Daycab 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Medium Duty Cabover 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Medium Duty Conventional -0.2% -0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Vocational/Construction 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A *Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. 5

6 NADA Guidebook Value Trends Year-Over-Year Annual Change in NADA Official Used Car Guide Value: July, 2011 v NADA Segment 5YR 4YR 3YR 2YR 1YR YoY Segment Change Compact Car -1.2% 0.5% -2.7% 0.5% -3.5% -2.1% Compact Utility 5.4% 5.0% 3.1% 4.9% 1.0% 2.3% Large Pickup 18.6% 13.1% 11.3% 7.6% 12.2% 10.3% Large SUV 31.4% 17.4% 9.7% 4.6% 4.3% 8.8% Luxury Car 8.0% 5.3% 0.4% 3.2% -0.2% 4.5% Luxury Utility 8.7% 4.3% 7.8% 5.3% -0.7% 2.0% Mid-Size Car 2.9% -2.7% -8.4% -3.1% -2.0% -3.1% Mid-Size Utility 12.3% 8.9% 6.7% 5.6% 1.7% 4.8% Mid-Size Van 4.6% 22.7% 9.3% 3.0% 8.3% 14.5% *Calculations are based on vehicle age, i.e. values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2011 are compared against values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2010. Annual Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value: July, 2011 v NADA Segment 5YR 4YR 3YR 2YR YoY Segment Change Commercial Van 16.1% 25.0% -18.2% 12.7% 5.7% Extended Hood 17.5% 30.1% 7.7% 0.0% 13.2% Highway Aerodynamic 11.1% 41.1% 11.2% 3.5% 11.7% Highway Traditional 20.3% 28.7% 7.6% 4.4% 14.6% Local/Delivery Daycab 24.1% 40.7% 12.2% 5.1% 13.2% Medium Duty Cabover 22.9% 18.6% 1.9% N/A 9.8% Medium Duty Conventional 30.8% 28.0% 11.2% -6.2% 10.5% Vocational/Construction 20.0% 38.8% 7.4% N/A 13.6% *Calculations are based on vehicle age, i.e. values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2010 are compared against values for 1 year old vehicles in CY

7 NADA Guidebook Value Trends Year-To-Date YTD Change in NADA Official Used Car Guide Value: January July 2012 NADA Segment 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY 2011MY* YTD Segment Change Compact Car 0.9% 0.4% 1.5% 1.8% 0.9% 1.0% Compact Utility -5.5% -5.9% -5.4% -3.9% -3.1% -4.4% Large Pickup -1.5% -1.8% -0.1% 0.7% 1.9% -0.5% Large SUV -2.0% -2.1% -0.9% -0.9% -2.4% -1.9% Luxury Car -5.4% -5.2% -6.7% -6.4% -4.7% -4.7% Luxury Utility -7.1% -7.0% -8.0% -7.3% -5.3% -6.8% Mid-Size Car -2.2% -1.5% -0.5% -0.1% -2.3% -1.8% Mid-Size Utility -5.5% -5.6% -4.6% -3.8% -3.3% -3.9% Mid-Size Van -2.9% -0.6% -4.6% -5.6% -3.8% -1.2% YTD Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value: January July 2012 NADA Segment 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY* YTD Segment Change Commercial Van -7.4% -6.3% -6.5% 3.1% 5.1% -2.8% Extended Hood 0.5% 1.8% -5.1% -12.3% -9.4% -3.2% Highway Aerodynamic -4.9% -4.0% -9.0% -12.2% -10.2% -7.9% Highway Traditional 1.3% 3.6% -4.7% -9.3% -9.4% -2.3% Local/Delivery Daycab 0.7% 0.7% -5.2% -7.9% -9.3% -4.7% Medium Duty Cabover -0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% N/A 0.5% Medium Duty Conventional -1.3% -3.4% -2.3% -10.4% -5.2% -3.9% Vocational/Construction 0.0% 0.0% -4.3% -4.2% N/A 1.8% 7

8 At NADA Used Car Guide On the Road Join NADA Used Car Guide at the ATAE Convention on July 12 th -14 th in Park City, Utah as well as at the NAFCU Annual Convention July 24 th -28 th in Nashville, Tennessee. We look forward to seeing you there! CONTACTS: Financial Industry/ Accounting/ Legal/OEM Captive Steve Stafford x7275 Credit Unions, Fleet/Lease/ Rental Industry, Government Doug Ott x4710 Automotive Dealers/Auctions, Insurance Jim Dodd x7115 Automotive OEMs Stu Zalud x4636 Business Development Manager Jim Gibson x7136 Director Sales and Customer Service Dan Ruddy x4707 About NADA Used Car Guide Over a 79-year history, NADA Used Car Guide has earned its reputation as the leading provider of market-reflective vehicle valuation products, services and information to businesses throughout the U.S. and worldwide. NADA s editorial team collects and analyzes over one million combined wholesale and retail automotive-related transaction prices per month. Its guidebooks, auction data, analysis, and data solutions offer automotive, financial, insurance, and government professionals the timely information and reliable solutions they need to make better business decisions. Visit Director Public Relations Charles Cyrill (mobile) ccyrill@nada.org Disclaimer: NADA Used Car Guide makes no representations about future performance or results based on the data and the contents available in this report ("Guidelines"). Guidelines is provided for informational purposes only and is provided AS IS without warranty or guarantee of any kind. By accessing Guidelines via or the NADA website, you agree not to reprint, reproduce, or distribute Guidelines without the express written permission of NADA Used Car Guide.