2.5% 2.1% 2.0% 1.5% Percent Change 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Compact Car

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1 Percent Change Guidelines April 2013 NADA Used Car Guide Industry Update INSIDE: NADA Official Used Car Guide Update NADA Official Used Car Guide Update ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Update New Vehicle Sales Data Fuel Price Data USED VEHICLE PRICES Wholesale vehicle prices improved for the second month in a row in March, but as expected, price growth was mild compared to what is typically seen for the period. Following an over-the-month increase of 0.8% in February, prices for used units up to eight years in age grew by an additional 1.2% in March, substantially less than the nearly 3% increase recorded for the month last year. Used Prices Improve by 1.2% in March Used prices are expected to begin sliding in April. New Sales Growth Moderates SAAR remains just above 15M units; incentives up again. Electric Vehicle Update Nissan s Leaf Shines in March; Chevy s Volt Lags. Economic Data NADAguides.com Consumer Site Trends March s subdued growth saw NADA s seasonallyadjusted used vehicle price index fall from February s figure of to 122.0, which is the lowest level recorded since July 2012 when the index hit Commercial Truck Analysis Supply of pre-dpf trucks continues to drop. AuctionNet Despite the month s weaker than normal Wholesale Market Trends NADA Guidebook Value Trends At NADA Used Car Guide performance, the first quarter came to a close with used vehicle prices 0.9% higher than they were for the period last year. Similar to February, the 2.2% rise in compact car prices was the most of any segment last month, while mid-size cars and vans followed once again with respective increases of 1.3%. The familiar first quarter increase in gaso- ly AuctionNet Price Change - February v. March, 2013 Vehicles up to 8 years in age. 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Source: Source: NADA NADA 2.1% Compact Car 0.9% 1.0% Compact Utility Large Pickup 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% Large SUV Luxury Car Luxury Utility Segment 1.3% Mid-Size Car 0.2% Mid-Size Utility 1.3% Mid-Size Van 1.2% Market Average line prices, which grew by 49 cents from a national average of $3.30 per gallon at the end of December to $3.79 in late February, in all likelihood benefited compact car prices more so than other segments over the past few months, but as we ve noted, the associated lift was significantly less than what has been observed through previous fuel spikes. While March s $3.71 per gallon average price of gasoline was slightly higher than the February s $3.67 per gallon, fuel prices began to recede towards the end of month and expectations are that they will remain flat over the coming months.

2 Official Used Car Guide Update (continued ) Given this, NADA believes that compact and mid-size car prices will give back a portion of their fuel-related premium in April, and as such, that depreciation will exceed the market average over the month. Regarding mid-size vans, some of March s appreciation was likely due to a 14% year-to-date reduction in auction supply. At 1.0%, large pickup prices also rose modestly in March. While auction volume for units up to eight years in age fell by 10% through the first quarter, the supply of units three years in age or younger actually increased by 18%; this increase in late-model supply was easily absorbed by demand growth however, as used pickup prices grew by nearly 7% over 2012 s Q1 average. Matching large pickups, prices for compact utilities also grew by 1.0% in March. However, the lift wasn t enough to offset the softness of the previous two months, and as result, prices for the first quarter fell by 1.4% relative to last year making the small utility segment the lone non-luxury group to carry this distinction. Not coincidentally, auction volume for units up to eight years in age increased by 5% in the quarter, which is a figure in line with NADA s prediction that segment supply will grow by 7% over the course of Prices for remaining segments were essentially unchanged from February s levels. Large SUV and mid-size utility prices improved by a combined average of 0.1%, while luxury car prices grew by 0.5% or roughly a full percentage point less than the average rise recorded for the month since Luxury utility prices were unchanged in March. Looking ahead, NADA believes that the end of the first quarter brought with it the peak in used prices for the year. For April, NA- DA expects that used vehicle prices will fall by 2.0-to-2.5% with depreciation accelerating towards the end of the month and continuing through May. NEW VEHICLE SALES Although growth slowed a bit, new vehicle sales improved again in March as the month s total sales reached 1.45M units, good for a 3.4% lift over last year s figure of 1.40M units. For the quarter, new vehicle sales reached 3.67M units, which is an increase of 6.3% over last year s first quarter figure. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) slipped to 15.2M from February s rate of 15.3, but March marked the fifth month in a row in which the SAAR exceeded 15M units. At a brand level, all of GM s respective makes reported gains last month. Buick once again led the non-luxury group with a 37% lift in sales followed, by GMC s 12% rise and Chevrolet s slight half-a-percent gain. For Buick, Enclave utility and Verano compact sedan sales continued to fuel the brand s recent success with Enclave sales up by over 55%, while sales growth for the Verano was an almost equally impressive 43%. As for Chevrolet, sales improved for many of the brand s trucks, including the Silverado pickup where deliveries grew by 8%, but losses for the company s Impala (-22%), Malibu (-22%), and Sonic (-16%) cars essentially offset truck growth. Sales at Jeep fell for the sixth month in a row in March, this time by 13%, which pushed losses for the first quarter to 12%. At 2%, sales slipped for the second month in a row for Chrysler brand as an 11% improvement in 200 Series deliveries couldn t fully compensate for 300 Series and Town & Country losses of 23% and 7%, respectively. 2

3 Official Used Car Guide Update (continued ) Not all was bad for Chrysler Group last month, as volume-leading Dodge managed to post a 19% gain to extend the brand s positive run of form to three months. Sales of the Avenger and Challenger cars improved by 33% and 42%, respectively, while deliveries of the recently reworked Ram pickup increased by 29%. Ford s sales grew for the eighth consecutive month in March, this time by a bit over 6%. The biggest gainers for the Blue Oval brand were the mid-size Explorer (41%) and smaller Escape utilities (28%). F Series pickup sales were also up by an impressive 15%, and when taken as a collective, sales of domestic full-size pickups grew by a combined average of 13% in March. Sales at Honda bounced back from February s disappointing performance as the brand managed a 5% gain in deliveries. The results of Honda s efforts to increase awareness of the brand s redesigned Accord and Civic through a slew of TV commercials were somewhat mixed, as sales of the Accord grew by over 36%, while deliveries of the Civic improved by just 1%. Nissan sales were essentially flat as the brand reported only a 0.4% increase in sales. Even though the Altima managed wrest the title of best-selling mid-size car from Toyota s Camry, sales of the recently redesigned car fell yet again, this time by 8%. Things went better for the brand s new Pathfinder utility as sales grew by more than 177% in the month. Toyota s sales dipped by 0.4% compared to last year as deliveries of the new Avalon (+110%) and Camry (-12%) moved in opposite directions. Korean brands Kia and Hyundai both experienced declines for March. Kia s sales fell for the second month in a row, this time by 15%, and not a single Kia model had sales grow in the month. Sales at Hyundai were also down as the brand reported a 2% decline over last year s figure, and deliveries of the brand s once white-hot Sonata sedan were off by 23%. On the luxury side of the market, Cadillac posted a 50% increase in deliveries in March with the all-new XTS and ATS sedans acting as the primary catalysts behind the growth. Lincoln on the other hand posted another disappointing month as deliveries dropped by 23%. Sales of the recently updated MKS and MKZ sedans were down by 45% and 20%, respectively. BMW had a strong March as the brand sales improved by 13%, while rival brand Mercedes-Benz reported growth of 7%. Year-todate, Mercedes has an 8k unit lead over BMW in the luxury sales race. On the Japanese front, Acura s sales shot up by over 26% due in large part to new RDX compact utility deliveries, while Lexus and Infiniti sales grew by 15% and 9%, respectively. Sales of the newly redesigned Lexus EX improved by 116%, while strong sales of Infiniti s newly launched JX utility offset declines across the rest of the brand s lineup. Per Autodata, incentive spending at a market level hit $2,573 in March, an increase of 1.0% relative to last year. Over the first quarter, spending averaged $2,485, a 0.8% reduction from last year s level. After falling in the seven months prior, incentive spending inched up over the past two months. While it s a bit early to call a trend, it would come as little surprise if spending growth continued over the coming months, especially if the new sales rate remains flat as expected. 3

4 Official Used Car Guide Update (continued ) Regarding new vehicle supply, relative to February overall new vehicle inventory declined by 5 days to reach 60 days at the end of March. Looking back one year, supply sat at a leaner 55 days. Supply for GM brands averaged 82 days, while Chrysler and Ford group supply reached 66 and 64 days, respectively. Generally speaking, import brand supply closed out the month predominantly below the domestic supply figure of 71 days, with Mitsubishi (90 days) and VW (84 days) being the exceptions. The majority of import luxury brands closed out the month with substantially less than 60 days of supply, excluding Acura (96 days) and Volvo (90 days). Cadillac and Lincoln inventory reached 112 and 102 days, respectively. 4

5 Nissan s Leaf Shines in March; Chevy s Volt Not So Much The Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf are two of the most well-known and best-selling plug-in electric vehicles in the U.S. (or in the Volt s case, a plug-in HYBRID), and while it might be hard to believe, the two models have been out for over two years now. New technology usually has its fair share of obstacles that must be overcome before consumers will give it any serious consideration. This has certainly been the case for the Volt and Leaf. Sales for each have fallen well short of manufacturer expectations, and both Chevy and Nissan have had to rely heavily on incentives and lease business to stoke consumer demand. Here s a brief update on how sales have trended for each model over the years and a review of where used prices currently sit. Sales exploded for Nissan s Leaf In March, as the brand managed to sell 2,197 units of the all-electric car. This was a 279% increase over prior year sales and an all-time high for the model. Over the first two months of the year, the Leaf s year-to-date sales average had been about 650 units per month, or less than a third of what was sold in March alone. So what caused the rapid acceleration in sales growth? Simply put a dramatic reduction in new vehicle price. Nissan slashed the price of the 2013 Leaf by $6,400 which took the base price from roughly $35,200 down to $28,800, not including destination. Subtract out the available $7,500 federal tax credit and the true cost of a new Leaf dropped to $21,300, plus destination AND minus any applicable manufacturer incentives. The cost of all the technology in the Leaf has not declined, but Nissan was able to lower the base price by transferring production of the car and many of its components to its U.S. based Smyrna plant, which is a move that allows the company to take advantage of the favorable dollar/yen exchange rate. On the other hand, sales of Chevy s Volt tumbled by 35% in March. The company sold 1,478 new Volts in the month, or 719 units fewer than the Leaf, making March the first month since mid-2011 that the Leaf surpassed the Volt in sales. That said, first quarter results still favor the Volt, as Chevrolet sold 4,244 of their plug-in hybrid, or 744 units more than Nissan s EV. 5

6 Nissan s Leaf Shines in March; Chevy s Volt Not So Much (continued ) Guidelines April 2013 Base pricing for the Volt starts at $39,145 not including destination, which is a hefty $10,000 premium above the base price of a Leaf. Subtracting the same $7,500 federal tax credit takes the true cost of the Volt down to $31,645. Looking at average incentive spending over the course of the past two years shows that Chevrolet has been heavier-handed in its application of spiffs than Nissan. On average, the Volt has trended roughly $4,000 higher than the Leaf, except for a brief two month period back in the fourth quarter of For March, Nissan spent an average of about $4,200 on Leaf incentives, or roughly $1,400 less than it spent in the month prior. However, Leaf incentives remained over $3,600 higher than they were in March Going forward however, it wouldn t be surprising to see this gap slowly narrow as U.S. production hits its stride. Chevrolet on the other hand increased Volt incentives by $440 in March to yet again push total spending above $9,000. Average trade-in values in April s edition of the NADA Used Car Guide for the 2011 Leaf SV and SL equate to roughly 45% of the original typically equipped (TE) MSRP. Retention for the 2011 Plug-In Electric NADA UCG Value Retention Year Make Model Average Trade-In TE MSRP Retention 2011 Chevrolet Volt $20,760 $40, % 2011 Chevrolet Volt Premium $21,785 $41, % 2011 Nissan Leaf SL $15,367 $32, % 2011 Nissan Leaf SV $14,842 $33, % Volt and Volt Premium is a few points higher at around 52%. It s important to remember that the TE MSRP does not account for the $7,500 federal tax credit or any available incentives at the time of purchase, and factoring in these discounts would yield much higher (i.e. better) retention rates. The Federal tax credit is only available to the original purchaser of each car, which for all intents and purposes wipes $7,500 worth of value off of the car as soon as it drives off the lot. 6

7 Nissan s Leaf Shines in March; Chevy s Volt Not So Much (continued ) Guidelines April 2013 If the demand stimulated by a lower selling price remains intact for the Leaf, the model stands a good chance of outselling the Volt in 2013 (Toyota s plug-in Prius could make things interesting however). The reduction in MSRP will also see the 2013 Leaf s retention improve dramatically compared to prior model years. GM has stated that it would monitor the success of Nissan s lower price strategy, but company officials have made no mention of a similar option being on the table for the Volt. But, considering the large sums of money GM is already throwing at the Volt with limited effect the OEM would in all likelihood be better off biting the MSRP bullet sooner rather than later. After all, the added volume should help squeeze some added cost of the notoriously pricey lithium-ion batteries running the Volt, and considering the fact that there are now more players in the plug-in hybrid/ev arena (Ford C-Max and Fusion, Honda Accord, etc.), things certainly won t get any easier for GM. 7

8 Economic Update American employers hired at the weakest pace in nine months in March, a sign that tax hikes that kicked in early this year as part of Washington's austerity drive could be stealing momentum from the economy. Payrolls expanded by just 88,000 last month outside the farming sector and the jobless rate ticked a tenth of a point lower to 7.6 percent largely due to people dropping out of the work force. While recent reports have pointed to relatively buoyant retail sales in January and February, March data showed retailers actually cut staff by 24,100, making it the hardest-hit sector last month. Moreover, the government said hiring in the retail sector was weaker in January and February than initially thought. It was unclear whether across-the-board federal budget cuts that began in March played a role in the weak pace of hiring, although nervousness over the cuts might have made businesses shy about taking on more staff. Some economists cautioned against reading too much into the report, but nonetheless the data raised questions over whether the strong hiring seen in the winter actually meant the economy had shifted into a higher gear. March's slowdown in job growth could make policymakers at the Federal Reserve more confident about continuing a bond-buying stimulus program. Prior advances in the labor market recovery had fueled discussion at the central bank over whether to dial back the purchases, perhaps as soon as this summer. The employment report did have some positive news for the economy. The Labor Department revised readings for January and February to show 61,000 more jobs added than previously estimated. The average workweek rose to its highest level in a year. The construction sector added 18,000 jobs, reinforcing the view that a recovery in the housing sector has become entrenched. The U.S. trade gap narrowed in February due to rising exports and falling crude oil imports, while U.S. consumer credit recorded its biggest increase in half a year. But analysts point out that federal spending cuts have only just begun and will be a more substantial drag on the economy between April and June when many government workers begin taking days off work without pay. In March, government payrolls fell only 7,000, partly reversing a 14,000-job gain from February. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that tighter fiscal policy will subtract about 1.5 percentage points from economic growth this year. U.S. crude oil production exceeded an average level of 7 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in November and December 2012, the highest volume since December EIA estimates that U.S. total crude oil production averaged 6.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, an increase of 0.8 million bbl/d from the previous year. Projected domestic crude oil production is expected to average 7.3 million bbl/d in 2013 and 7.9 million bbl/d in During the April-through-September summer driving season this year, regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $3.63 per gallon according to the EIA. The projected monthly average regular retail gasoline price falls from $3.69 per gallon in May to $3.57 per gallon in September. EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $3.56 per gallon in 2013 and $3.39 per gallon in 2014, compared with $3.63 per gallon in Gains in the housing market will solidify this year, adding to the industry s strong 2013 start. The pace of existing home sales inched up in February to a 4.98-million annual rate, the highest level since November 2009, when a federal credit for first-time home buyers boosted sales. Accompanying the brisk sales of new and existing homes is a sharp decline in the overhang of unsold homes, which hit 4.4 months worth of inventory in February. While up slightly from the 4.2 month figure recorded in January, supplies are still below the six-month level which is considered a healthy mix of supply and demand. Construction of at least 950,000 new homes will begin in 2013, a 22 percent jump over last year's 780,000 starts. As inventory continues to dwindle and builder confidence recovers from a three-month slide, the pace of starts will climb from the 917,000 annualized rate registered in February. Though less than last year s 28 percent increase, the 2013 annual gain will be the fourth in a row for housing starts. Moreover, housing permits climbed to an annualized pace of 946,000 in February, higher than sales -- an indicator that home sales will pick up in the next few months. 8

9 ATD/NADA Official Commercial Truck Guide Update Little Change for Class 8; Medium Duty Recovering Summary The retail and wholesale sleeper tractor markets were little changed from last month. The retail market remains extremely stable, while the wholesale market continues to absorb older, higher-mileage trucks. Medium duty conventionals continue to recover, with Class 6 a standout. Class 3-4 cabovers may finally be lifting off the bottom. A special study of the effect of region on price shows that trucks sold in California and the Desert Southwest bring the highest money, while trucks sold in the Pacific Northwest bring the lowest. NADA forecasts little change in the Class 8 markets and directionally upward trends in the medium duty markets in the near term. Sleeper Tractors Retail The average retail selling price of a sleeper tractor in February was $49,524. Average mileage was 540,007, and average age was 78 months. These results are very similar to both last month and year-prior. Specifically, February, 2013 s results Average Retail Price and Mileage - All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles $55, $50, were $800 (or 1.6%) higher on price, 2340 (or 0.4%) lower on mileage, and 1 month (or 1.3%) older vs. January, Year- $45, over-year, February, 2013 was $433 (or 0.8%) higher on price, 6316 (or 1.2%) lower on mileage, and 6 months (or 7.7%) older. Overall, the sleeper market has been extremely stable since the 4th quarter of See graph for detail. $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 Source: NADA Price Mileage We have been closely monitoring age trends. Sleeper tractors sold today are approximately 6 months older than those sold at the start of the period of stabilization (see graph). This difference is too minor to indicate any change in market dynamics, but if age continues to increase while mileage remains static, we may begin to draw inferences about the supply of trucks entering the market. In addition, the outsized presence of 2007 model year trucks in the marketplace has greatly diminished over the past 6 months, while the 2009 model year has increased. The extremely strong value retention of 2007 s is most likely beginning to wane, as the average mileage of this cohort exceeds 600,000 miles s sold today are averaging right at 500,000 miles, which Source: NADA Average Age in s of Sleeper Tractors Reported Sold (Retail) 2- Moving Average of Trucks with Under 1M Miles 9

10 Jan-10 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-11 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-12 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-13 Jan-11 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-12 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-13 Feb Guidelines April 2013 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) should be supporting relatively strong values. However, DPFequipped trucks still receive grudging acceptance in the market, and should see traditional depreciation movement over the next few months. See graphs for detail. Sleeper Tractors Wholesale The average wholesale selling price of a sleeper tractor in February was $24,481. Average mileage was 733,997, and average age was 95 months. Compared to last month, February s results were $683 (or 2.8%) higher on price, 18,651 (or 2.5%) higher on price, and 5 months (or 5.0%) younger. Year-over-year, February 2013 s results were $15,834 (or 39.3%) lower on price, 164,685 (or 22.4%) higher on mileage, and 27 months (or 28.4%) older. See graph for detail. The year-over-year results are eye-opening. Since the 4th quarter of 2012, age and mileage have increased notably (see graph). Last month s average age, at 100 months, was the secondhighest we ve seen since the recovery began (the highest was in February 2010, at 107 months). And this month s average mileage set a new record for that period. There is still a strong negative correlation between price and mileage, so we can attribute the year-over-year difference in universal average price mainly to the difference in mileage $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 ly Retail Sales Volume by Model Year: Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles 2 per. Mov. Avg. (2006) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (2007) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (2008) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (2009) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (2010) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (2011) Source: NADA Average Retail Price by Model Year - All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles Adjusted for Mileage $100,000 Source: NADA Average Wholesale Price and Mileage: All Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles Average Wholesale Age and Mileage: Sleeper Tractors Under 1M Miles $45, $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Sources: ATD/NADA and AuctionNet 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Price) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage) Sources: ATD/NADA and AuctionNet 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Age) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Mileage)

11 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) As the graph illustrates, trucks in given mileage ranges have depreciated very mildly over the past year. These factors tell us that the wholesale market is absorbing larger numbers of older trucks with higher mileage, but this trend has not adversely impacted selling prices for trucks in specific mileage ranges. Medium Duty Conventionals February was the third month in a row to see a substantial increase in selling prices for Class 6 Conventionals. The Class 4 segment is also heading upwards, and Class 5 s remain stable. See graph for details. After declining throughout most of 2012, Class 6 Conventionals saw a bump up of about $1800 in December, followed by a $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Average Wholesale Selling Price by Mileage Range: Sleeper Tractors 2 per. Mov. Avg. ( K) 2 per. Mov. Avg. ( K) 2 per. Mov. Avg. ( K) 2 per. Mov. Avg. ( K) Sources: ATD/NADA and AuctionNet Jan-12 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-13 Feb $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 Average Wholesale Selling Price: 4-7 Year-Old Conventionals by GVW Class Adjusted for Mileage $1400 increase in January, and a whopping $3000 in February. December s increase occurred in tandem with an increase in number of trucks sold, which we characterized as a market shift to the positive. Volume subsided quite a bit in January, with a drop of about 70%. That drop could partially explain January s higher pricing, but February s volume was nearly identical to January s. As such, we remain optimistic that improved consumer spending and residential construction may be finally trickling down to the medium duty market. Medium Duty Cabovers February marks the third month in a row that average pricing has increased for our test population of Class 3-4 Cabovers. Three months is a legitimate trend, but given the recent history of this segment plus the limited sample size of data, we will refrain from making a judgment. However, all fundamental economic factors support higher pricing going forward, and it is entirely possible that this segment has finally started to lift off the bottom. See graph for detail. Special Study Regionality The graph shows the result of organizing NADA s CY 2012 retail sales data for sleeper tractors into region. The analysis is an attempt to show the relative difference in value placed on $5,000 $0 $20,000 $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Sources: ATD/NADA and AuctionNet 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Class 4) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Class 5) 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Class 6) Jan-12 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-13 Feb Average Wholesale Selling Price: 4-7 Year-Old Class 3-4 Cabovers Adjusted for Mileage Sources: ATD/NADA and AuctionNet 11

12 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) trucks sold in selected areas of the country. We adjusted for mileage and model year differences between region, but there are a few factors to consider. First, trucks sold in the CA and Desert Southwest regions were notably newer than those in other regions. In fact, there were no sleeper tractors older than MY 2005 reported sold from either region. This is most likely due to the stringent emissions requirements for trucks operating in that area. Our age adjustment came into play here, but this is still a factor to keep in mind. Second, trucks sold in the Mountain region tended to have a higher level of spec. In addition, this region represented the highest concentration of traditionally-styled owner-operator trucks. These factors are logical, given the need for higherhorsepower engines for trucks operating in mountain States. We did not adjust our results for specs. Finally, you may note that the New England region is not represented in the graph. NADA does not receive a robust amount of sleeper tractor sales from that region. We are always looking to expand our network of reporting dealers. Anyone who wishes to report sales to us is invited to contact cvisser@nada.org. In sum, we are confident in the relative rankings of each region as they stand. Adjusting for spec level and additional factors would likely result in smaller dollar variances, but the relative regional positioning would not likely change appreciably. Sales Volume February s retail sales per dealership were solidly average, coming in at 5.9 trucks per rooftop. This result is down 0.4 trucks (or 6.3%) from January, and 0.2 (or 3.3%) from last February. We consider these differences negligible. $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 -$2,000 -$4,000 -$6,000 Deviation from Average Nationwide Retail Selling Price All Sleeper Tractors Reported Sold in CY 2012, Adjusted for Age and Mileage Source: ATD/NADA CA Mountain Desert S.W. Average = $48,371 Midwest Southwest Eastern Central Southeast Pacific N.W. Wholesale activity at the dealer level has picked up recently, but with fewer than 2 trucks wholesaled per rooftop, results are still notably lower than the high point of This difference is likely due at least in part to fewer average- to lowmileage trucks available today. There is healthy retail demand for trucks with under 550,000 miles, and those trucks are less numerous than they were three years ago. As such, there s not much reason to wholesale them. The wholesale market is increasingly comprised of trucks with substantially higher mileage Jan-09 Average Number of Used Trucks Sold per Rooftop (NADA Reporting Dealers) Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-10 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-11 Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-12 Mar Retail Wholesale Source: ATD/NADA May Jul Sep Nov Jan-13 12

13 Commercial Truck Guide Update (continued ) Conclusion New truck orders have been relatively solid since the 3 rd quarter of Manufacturers seemed somewhat pessimistic about 2013 early in the year, but have trended more towards the positive in recent weeks. Concern over the sequestration, debt ceiling, and European debt crises is valid, but consumers continue to spend and factories continue to produce. The domestic economy has been remarkably resilient in absorbing political dysfunction, and consumers seem to be adapting to this new normal. It is probable that the economy will continue to absorb these challenges and continue slowly but steadily upward. Keep up with real-time analysis of these and other trends on our Commercial Vehicle Blog, available at 13

14 New Vehicle SAAR (millions) Average Incentive Spending Sales Volume (millions) Days of Supply Guidelines April 2013 New Vehicle Data New Vehicle Sales New Vehicle Days' Supply New Vehicle Sales YoY Change 30% 25% Days' Supply YoY Change % 15% 10% Percent Change Day Change % % 0 0 Source: Wardsauto.com Source: Wardsauto.com New SAAR Incentives SAAR YoY Change 25% 20% $2,600 $2,550 $2,500 Average of Total YoY Change 15% 10% % 10% Percent Change $2,450 $2,400 $2,350 $2,300 5% 0% -5% Percent Change 12 5% $2,250 $2,200-10% 11 0% $2,150-15% Source: Wardsauto.com Source: Autodata Mainstream Brand Performance (Units Sold) Change From Mar-13 Feb-13 Mar-12 Ago Year Ago Buick 18,007 16,150 13,105 11% 37% Chevrolet 173, , ,073 10% 0% Chrysler 33,905 25,083 34,726 35% -2% Dodge 93,939 79,060 78,695 19% 19% Fiat 3,807 3,302 3,712 15% 3% Ford 224, , ,984 20% 6% GMC 38,333 35,778 34,337 7% 12% Honda 121,938 96, ,833 26% 5% Hyundai 68,306 52,311 69,728 31% -2% Jeep 39,469 31,164 45,124 27% -13% Kia 49,125 41,505 57,505 18% -15% Mazda 32,028 24,936 32,376 28% -1% Mini 6,071 4,302 5,866 41% 3% Mitsubishi 5,286 6,051 7,160-13% -26% Nissan 126,623 90, ,132 40% 0% Scion 6,432 5,052 6,694 27% -4% Smart % -7% Subaru 36,701 28,163 32,387 30% 13% Suzuki 2,697 1,764 2,631 53% 3% Toyota 175, , ,448 22% 0% Volkswagen 37,704 31,456 36,588 20% 3% Luxury Brand Performance (Units Sold) Change From Mar-13 Feb-13 Mar-12 Ago Year Ago Acura 14,100 11,364 11,166 24% 26% Audi 13,253 10,877 11,585 22% 14% BMW 27,078 21,311 23,940 27% 13% Cadillac 15,751 13,845 10,537 14% 49% Infiniti 11,103 9,147 10,185 21% 9% Jaguar 1,408 1,148 1,321 23% 7% Land Rover 4,314 3,905 4,199 10% 3% Lexus 23,190 17,339 20,140 34% 15% Lincoln 6,825 4,883 8,803 40% -22% Mercedes-Benz 26,175 23,268 24,509 12% 7% Porsche 3,487 2,805 2,460 24% 42% Volvo 5,365 4,867 6,692 10% -20% Source: Wardsauto.com 14

15 Home Price Index (Aggregate Jan. 2000=100) All Items (% Change) Retail and Food Service Sales (% Change) Diffusion index, SA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (ly, Ths.) Index Value Guidelines April 2013 Economic Data Employment Total Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate, SA Consumer Confidence Index 800 Nonfarm Payroll Change Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate (%) Source: BLS Source: The BLS Conference Board Retail Sales Retail & Food Service Sales, SA Industrial Production Purchasing Manager's & Inventories Indices 15% Retail/Food Service Sales YoY Retail/Food Service Sales MoM 65 Purchasing Manager's Index Inventories Index 10% % 50 0% % 35-10% % 20 Source: U.S. The BLS Conference Census Bureau Board Source: Institute for Supply Management Housing S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (20-Metro Composite) & Housing Starts (Total Private) Consumer Price Index (CPI) All Items 250 Home Price Index Housing Starts 2,500 6% All Items YoY All Items MoM 5% 200 2,000 4% ,500 1,000 Housing Starts (Ths. SAAR) 3% 2% 1% 0% % -2% 0 0-3% Source: S&P Case-Shiller, U.S. Census Bureau Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 15

16 Average Price Average Price Guidelines April 2013 Fuel Price Data Regular Grade Gasoline Prices (all formulations) $4.00 Average Price Per Gallon $3.90 $3.80 $3.70 $ YoY Change $0.40 $0.30 $0.20 $3.60 $3.50 $3.40 $3.30 $3.20 $3.10 $3.00 $0.10 $0.00 ($0.10) ($0.20) ($0.30) Price Change Source: EIA On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices $4.20 Average Price Per Gallon $ YoY Change $0.40 $4.10 $0.30 $4.00 $0.20 $3.90 $3.80 $0.10 $0.00 Price Change $3.70 ($0.10) $3.60 ($0.20) $3.50 ($0.30) Source: EIA U.S Regular Gasoline Prices (dollars per gallon, all formulations) Change From Mar-13 Feb-13 Mar-12 Ago Year Ago US $3.71 $3.67 $3.85 $0.04 ($0.14) East Coast $3.71 $3.70 $3.81 $0.01 ($0.10) Midwest $3.66 $3.65 $3.82 $0.01 ($0.17) Gulf Coast $3.54 $3.47 $3.68 $0.07 ($0.14) Rocky Mountain $3.47 $3.33 $3.53 $0.15 ($0.06) West Coast $4.02 $3.91 $4.22 $0.11 ($0.20) Source: EIA U.S On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices (dollars per gallon) Change From Mar-13 Feb-13 Mar-12 Ago Year Ago US $4.07 $4.11 $4.13 ($0.04) ($0.06) East Coast $4.11 $4.16 $4.18 ($0.05) ($0.07) Midwest $4.03 $4.08 $4.02 ($0.05) $0.01 Gulf Coast $4.01 $4.02 $4.04 ($0.02) ($0.03) Rocky Mountain $3.99 $3.97 $4.08 $0.02 ($0.09) West Coast $4.19 $4.26 $4.41 ($0.07) ($0.22) 16

17 NADAguides.com Consumer Site Trends New Activity About NADAguides.com NADAguides.com is the most comprehensive vehicle information website on the internet today, offering a broad range of information and services to help educate consumers in the market to buy, sell, trade, or simply shop for a vehicle. NADAguides is an alliance partner of NADA Services Corporation. The figures contained below are based on consumer activity at and are calculated by measuring the number of unique lookups for a given period of time. BMW Jeep Dodge Ford Audi Subaru Chrysler Acura Honda Buick Scion Hyundai Lexus Mercedes-Benz Volkswagen Land Rover Mazda Cadillac Lincoln Toyota MINI Kia Chevrolet GMC Jaguar Nissan Porsche Infiniti Suzuki Smart Mitsubishi Volvo Saab YoY Change in Consumer Activity: NEW Make Source: NADAguides.com -100% -46% -37% -29% -150% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% -7% -8% -9% Percent Change 4% 3% 3% 1% 0% 12% 18% 16% 14% 13% 25% 24% 24% 23% 23% 21% 20% 36% 32% 31% 43% 54% 61% 56% 69% 65% New: Top 15 Researched Models March 2013 March 2013 Rank MY MAKE MODEL Ford F Honda Accord Sdn Chevrolet Silverado Hyundai Elantra Honda CR-V Toyota Tacoma Nissan Altima Ford Mustang Ford Escape Chevrolet Equinox Jeep Wrangler Unlimited BMW 3 Series Ford Explorer Jeep Grand Cherokee Ford Fusion New: Top 15 Researched Models March 2012 March 2012 Rank MY MAKE MODEL Ford F Chevrolet Silverado Toyota Camry Honda CR-V Toyota Tacoma Ford Focus Chevrolet Equinox Ford Mustang Hyundai Sonata Nissan Altima Honda Accord Sdn Chevrolet Cruze Toyota Corolla Hyundai Elantra Chevrolet Camaro 17

18 NADAguides.com Consumer Site Trends Used Activity YoY Change in Consumer Activity: USED Make Jaguar Audi GMC Buick Porsche Mercedes-Benz BMW Land Rover Cadillac Lexus Suzuki Lincoln Chevrolet Ford Mercury Jeep Acura Saab Hummer Dodge Saturn Infiniti Subaru Volvo Chrysler Toyota Honda Nissan Volkswagen MINI Mazda Pontiac Kia Hyundai Mitsubishi Scion -9% -9% -10% -10% -8% -4% -4% -5% -6% -6% -3% -3% -3% -4% -2% -3% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 3% 6% 6% 5% 4% 10% 10% 10% 9% 9% 14% 13% Source: NADAguides.com -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Percent Change Used: Top 15 Researched Models March 2013 Used: Top 15 Researched Models March 2012 March 2013 Rank MY MAKE MODEL Ford F Honda Accord Sdn Chevrolet Silverado Hyundai Elantra Honda CR-V Toyota Tacoma Nissan Altima Ford Mustang Ford Escape Chevrolet Equinox Jeep Wrangler Unlimited BMW 3 Series Ford Explorer Jeep Grand Cherokee Ford Fusion March 2012 Rank MY MAKE MODEL Ford F Chevrolet Silverado Toyota Camry Honda CR-V Toyota Tacoma Ford Focus Chevrolet Equinox Ford Mustang Hyundai Sonata Nissan Altima Honda Accord Sdn Chevrolet Cruze Toyota Corolla Hyundai Elantra Chevrolet Camaro 18

19 Percent Change Percent Change Guidelines April 2013 AuctionNet Wholesale Market Trends About AuctionNet AuctionNet is an industry-unique wholesale transaction database, available exclusively from NADA Used Car Guide, in joint partnership with the National Auto Auction Association (NAAA). Over 100 million records strong and updated weekly, it captures sales from all Manheim and ADESA, as well as participating ABC, ServNet and large independent auctions, representing over 80% of nationwide auction activity. ly AuctionNet Price Change - February v. March, 2013 Vehicles up to 8 years in age. 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5% Source: Source: NADA NADA Compact Car Compact Utility Large Pickup Large SUV Luxury Car Luxury Utility Segment Mid-Size Car Mid-Size Utility Mid-Size Van Market Average Annual AuctionNet Price Change - March, 2012 v Vehicles up to 8 years in age. 8.0% 6.7% 6.9% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% -2.0% -0.7% -2.2% -1.9% -2.4% -1.7% -0.7% -4.0% Source: Source: NADA NADA Compact Car Compact Utility Large Pickup Large SUV Luxury Car Luxury Utility Segment Mid-Size Car Mid-Size Utility Mid-Size Van Market Average 19

20 NADA Guidebook Value Trends -Over- ly Change in Average NADA Official Used Car Guide Value: NADA Segment March 2013 v. April 2013 NADA Segment 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY 2011MY 2012MY* Compact Car -1.3% -1.3% -1.5% -1.6% -1.7% Compact Utility -3.4% -2.6% -2.9% -2.6% -2.2% Large Pickup -1.3% -1.3% -1.1% -0.6% -0.7% Large SUV -1.4% -0.5% -0.9% -0.6% -0.3% Luxury Car -2.7% -2.2% -1.9% -2.1% -1.6% Luxury Utility -1.5% -1.7% -2.0% -1.4% -1.2% Mid-Size Car -2.1% -2.2% -2.4% -2.2% -2.3% Mid-Size Utility -1.1% -1.0% -1.2% -0.9% -0.7% Mid-Size Van -3.4% -1.7% -1.8% -2.6% -1.6% *Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. ly Change in Average ATD/NADA CTG Value: NADA Segment March 2013 v. April 2013 NADA Segment 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY 2011MY* Commercial Van -2.2% -1.5% -2.8% -6.6% -7.7% Extended Hood -3.6% -4.0% -4.5% -3.2% -3.0% Highway Aerodynamic -0.4% -7.2% -7.9% -8.8% -8.5% Highway Traditional -4.8% -4.2% -5.3% -3.3% -3.9% Local/Delivery Daycab -3.2% -5.6% -5.7% -7.8% -6.2% Medium Duty Cabover 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% -5.5% N/A Medium Duty Conventional -3.5% -3.3% -3.8% 0.2% -5.4% Vocational/Construction 0.0% -1.1% -3.7% N/A N/A *Value movement can be influenced by newly valued vehicles. See the last page of "Guidelines" for data key. 20

21 NADA Guidebook Value Trends Year-Over-Year Annual Change in NADA Official Used Car Guide Value: April, 2012 v NADA Segment 5YR 4YR 3YR 2YR 1YR YoY Segment Change Compact Car -1.5% -2.7% 0.9% -2.7% 0.4% 0.5% Compact Utility -0.5% -1.4% -0.8% -1.7% -2.9% -3.3% Large Pickup 3.9% 3.4% -0.1% 6.3% 0.9% 4.3% Large SUV 10.2% 3.3% 1.5% 2.3% 0.5% 1.8% Luxury Car 0.9% -1.5% 0.3% -4.2% 3.6% -2.3% Luxury Utility -0.6% 3.4% -0.9% -7.6% -4.3% -4.6% Mid-Size Car -4.5% -6.9% 3.6% 1.0% -0.8% 1.7% Mid-Size Utility 3.2% 1.7% 1.3% 0.1% -2.3% 0.2% Mid-Size Van 13.2% 4.6% -1.7% 4.7% -1.3% 7.3% *Calculations are based on vehicle age, i.e. values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2012 are compared against values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2011. Annual Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value: April, 2012 v NADA Segment 5YR 4YR 3YR 2YR YoY Segment Change Commercial Van 7.0% -20.9% 12.5% 11.6% 3.4% Extended Hood 14.1% -2.3% -5.5% 2.7% 2.8% Highway Aerodynamic 18.9% -4.2% -6.4% -5.8% 1.2% Highway Traditional 11.3% -0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 7.1% Local/Delivery Daycab 19.7% -3.7% -5.9% -1.2% -1.9% Medium Duty Cabover 12.2% -9.3% 15.0% N/A 4.3% Medium Duty Conventional 15.1% 3.8% -3.0% 4.0% 5.6% Vocational/Construction 30.8% 0.0% 13.2% N/A 26.0% *Calculations are based on vehicle age, i.e. values for 1 year old vehicles in CY2010 are compared against values for 1 year old vehicles in CY

22 NADA Guidebook Value Trends Year-To-Date YTD Change in NADA Official Used Car Guide Value: January Apr 2013 NADA Segment 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY 2011MY 2012MY* YTD Segment Change Compact Car -0.7% -0.7% -0.6% -0.4% -0.6% -0.6% Compact Utility -2.4% -2.0% -1.7% -1.1% -1.7% -1.7% Large Pickup -1.9% -2.5% -2.3% -0.9% -1.0% -1.7% Large SUV -2.4% -1.9% -1.8% -1.3% -1.2% -1.6% Luxury Car -4.2% -3.3% -3.7% -3.8% 4.1% -1.0% Luxury Utility -4.1% -2.5% -3.1% -2.4% -1.9% -2.6% Mid-Size Car 0.0% -0.6% -0.8% -0.5% -0.6% -0.5% Mid-Size Utility -3.0% -2.2% -2.0% -1.2% -1.9% -2.0% Mid-Size Van -1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 1.4% 0.5% YTD Change in ATD/NADA Commercial Truck Guide Value: January Apr 2013 NADA Segment 2006MY 2007MY 2008MY 2009MY 2010MY* YTD Segment Change Commercial Van -5.5% -6.3% -7.7% -3.0% -2.7% -2.1% Extended Hood -0.8% -3.6% -4.8% -6.4% -3.2% -3.8% Highway Aerodynamic -3.3% -0.2% -7.0% -11.9% -11.6% -6.6% Highway Traditional 0.0% -4.8% -4.2% -5.3% -3.3% -3.3% Local/Delivery Daycab -1.2% -4.9% -5.6% -10.2% -10.2% -5.1% Medium Duty Cabover 1.0% 0.5% -0.8% -5.0% -5.5% 3.3% Medium Duty Conventional -3.5% -8.7% -5.8% -6.2% -1.0% -3.2% Vocational/Construction 0.0% 0.0% -1.1% -3.7% N/A 4.2% 22

23 At NADA Used Car Guide What s New NADA MarketValues is a new mobile app designed exclusively for dealers and is available for iphone and ipad. Subscriptions are available to NADA Used Car Guide values and/or AuctionNet, the industry s top source for wholesale vehicle sales data. NADA values include weekly NADA auction values, as well as monthly trade-in, loan and retail for used passenger cars and light-duty trucks. Download the NADA MarketValues from the App Store for $1.99 and get your FREE 30 day trial started today! Contact us at to learn more. On the Road Look for Steve Stafford at the Auto Finance Risk Summit from April 29 th -30 th in Dallas TX. Join us at the 14 th Annual Digital Dealers Conference & Expo from May 7 th -9th, in Orlando, FL. Jim Dodd and Stu Zalud will be in Booth #639 to show you our newest product, NADA MarketValues. Don t miss the Optimizing the Power of Your Data session by Stu Zalud on Wednesday, May 8 th from 4:30-5:30 PM to learn more about data sharing agreements, using your data to improve your effectiveness and profitability and how to get local market performance benchmarks. About NADA Used Car Guide Celebrating our 80 th year, NADA Used Car Guide has earned its reputation as the leading provider of vehicle valuation products, services and information to businesses throughout the U.S. and worldwide. NADA s editorial team collects and analyzes over one million combined wholesale and retail automotiverelated transaction prices per month. Its guidebooks, auction data, analysis, and data solutions offer automotive, financial, insurance, and government professionals the timely information and reliable solutions they need to make better business decisions. Visit CONTACTS: Financial Industry/ Accounting/ Legal/OEM Captive Steve Stafford x7275 sstafford@nada.org Credit Unions, Fleet/Lease/ Rental Industry, Government Doug Ott x4710 dott@nada.org Automotive Dealers/Auctions, Insurance Jim Dodd x7115 jdodd@nada.org Automotive OEMs Stu Zalud x4636 szalud@nada.org Business Development Manager Jim Gibson x7136 jgibson@nada.org Director Sales and Customer Service Dan Ruddy x4707 druddy@nada.org About NADA Used Car Guide Over a 80-year history, NADA Used Car Guide has earned its reputation as the leading provider of market-reflective vehicle valuation products, services and information to businesses throughout the U.S. and worldwide. NADA s editorial team collects and analyzes over one million combined wholesale and retail automotive-related transaction prices per month. Its guidebooks, auction data, analysis, and data solutions offer automotive, financial, insurance, and government professionals the timely information and reliable solutions they need to make better business decisions. Visit Director Public Relations Charles Cyrill (mobile) ccyrill@nada.org Disclaimer: NADA Used Car Guide makes no representations about future performance or results based on the data and the contents available in this report ("Guidelines"). Guidelines is provided for informational purposes only and is provided AS IS without warranty or guarantee of any kind. By accessing Guidelines via or the NADA website, you agree not to reprint, reproduce, or distribute Guidelines without the express written permission of NADA Used Car Guide.