Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing

Transcription

1 Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing Q automotive market share trends and registrations Brad Smith Director, Automotive Market Statistics Marty Miller Senior Product Manager, VIO Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian.

2 Today s presentation Part one Marty Miller Senior Product Manager, VIO What s on the Road VIO by model year, segment, age and market share U.S. light duty vehicles through June 30, 2015 U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles through June 30,

3 Session overview Part two Q2 Registrations Market trends Geographic performance Manufacturer, make and model share Demographic overview Brad Smith Director, Automotive Market Statistics 3

4 INSERT PICTURE HERE Vehicles in Operation What s on the road today? Light duty vehicles Medium and heavy duty vehicles 4

5 What s on the road today? VIO Light duty vehicles VIO additions/deletions: 27.2 million (10.6%) (out of operation + new sales) VIO total changes: 67.5 million (26.4%) (used sales + out of operation + new sales) Vehicles in operation Q million Net out of operation 10.5 million (4.1%) Carryover Used vehicle sales 40.3 million Vehicles in operation Q million New vehicle sales 16.7 million Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 5

6 VIO change by model year (in millions) Q to Q New Sales 16.7M 72.4% of all vehicles within 14 MY (28%) Out of Operation Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 6

7 VIO by model year (in millions) 89.2M vehicles within sweet spot (MY ) 75.8% of VIO MY % of VIO MY % of VIO MY1996+ Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 7

8 VIO Sweet Spot by Domestic v Import Domestic 52.4% Import 47.6% Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 8

9 Average vehicle age (1967 to current MYs of period) Rolling average vehicle age (first 20 MYs of period) *92.3% *92.0% *91.6% *91.3% *90.7% * = VIO Coverage Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 9

10 Percentage of VIO by manufacturer market share Change from Q Detroit 3 = 55.8% Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 10

11 VIO Top 20 segments on the road market share Change from Q Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 11

12 VIO High level segmentation Average age and market share Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 12

13 VIO High level segments on the road market share Change from Q to Q VIO Volumes Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2015 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 13

14 What s on the road today? VIO Medium and heavy duty vehicles Vehicles in operation Q million Carryover Vehicles in operation New last 12 months New vehicle sales 302 thousand Q Net out of operation 6.5 million 83 thousand (1.3%) Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2015 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only) 14

15 VIO by model year (in thousands) Medium and heavy duty vehicles Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2015 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only) 15

16 VIO by GVW class & census regions market share Medium and heavy duty vehicles Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2015 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only) 16

17 VIO Market share of vehicles in operation by make Medium and heavy duty vehicles Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2015 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only) 17

18 INSERT PICTURE HERE U.S. Market Overview What products are selling? Who s buying? Where is it happening? 18

19 The second quarter of the calendar year demonstrates consistent year over year growth in new and used vehicle registrations 16. M Total (New/Used) Registration Volume (Q2) New Used New & used vehicle registrations Individual & Commercial buyers Second quarter of calendar year 14. M 12. M 10. M 8. M 9.5 M 9.7 M 9.8 M 10.2 M 10.3 M 10.6 M 6. M 4. M 2. M 3.1 M 3.3 M 3.9 M 4.2 M 4.5 M 4.6 M. M Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q

20 % New Registrations Individual registrations account for approximately 75% of total new registration volume 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Individual Organization New vehicle registrations Individual & Commercial buyers *Year to date (June) 2.9 M 3.1 M 3.4 M 3.4 M 3.7 M 2.1 M 9.1 M 10.1 M 11.4 M 12.3 M 13.1 M 6.6 M * Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q

21 Through June 2015, new individual registration volumes are up 2.8% over the previous year 14.0 M Individual (New) Registration Volume Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 New vehicle registrations Individual buyers 12.0 M 10.0 M 2.8 M 2.9 M 3.1 M 8.0 M 6.0 M 4.0 M 2.0 M.0 M 2.4 M 2.4 M 2.3 M 1.9 M 2.5 M 2.6 M 2.5 M 3.0 M 2.9 M 3.3 M 3.6 M 3.2 M 3.4 M 3.5 M 2.4 M 2.7 M 2.9 M 3.0 M 3.1 M Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q

22 10 states accounted for nearly 60% of retail registrations in the second quarter of 2015 New vehicle registrations Individual buyers Q Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q

23 In comparison to Q2 2014, states across the South and West experienced volume gains in Q New vehicle registrations Individual buyers Q vs. Q Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q

24 Los Angeles and New York lead all market for new vehicle registrations LOS ANGELES DALLAS-FT. WORTH PHILADELPHIA BOSTON (MANCHESTER) WASHINGTON DC (HAGRSTWN) SAN FRANCISCO-OAK-SAN JOSE MIAMI-FT. LAUDERDALE TAMPA-ST. PETE (SARASOTA) PHOENIX (PRESCOTT) CLEVELAND-AKRON (CANTON) Market Share by Nielsen DMA NEW YORK CHICAGO HOUSTON DETROIT ATLANTA 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 2.2% 2.0% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 3.0% New vehicle registrations Individual buyers Q % 6.7% DMA is a registered service mark of The Nielsen Company. Used under license. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q

25 10 vehicle segments accounted for approximately 80% of new registrations in Q CUV - Entry Level Small Car - Economy Pickup - Full Sized Mid Range Car - Standard Mid Range Car - Lower CUV - Mid Range SUV - Lower Mid Range CUV - Premium Upscale - Near Luxury SUV - Entry Level Van - Mini Sport Car - Touring Mid Range Car - Premium Small Car - Budget Pickup - Small Top 15 Vehicle Segments 9.0% 6.6% 5.4% 4.4% 3.7% 3.4% 2.9% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 10.7% 10.2% 11.0% New vehicle registrations Individual buyers Q % 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Segment Share of Registrations Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q

26 Small Pickups and Premium Sports Cars took the lead in year over year growth while Upscale Luxury Cars and Small Budget Cars experienced declines Q % Change from Q Pickup - Small Sport Car - Upper Premium Upscale - Ultra 47.7% 45.0% 50.2% Van - Full Sized CUV - Mid Range 21.8% 20.3% Mid Range Car - Premium Sport Car - Premium Alt Power - Hybrid Car Upscale - Luxury Small Car - Budget -16.0% -17.1% -18.0% -18.8% -20.9% New vehicle registrations Individual buyers Minimum 100 units in both Q and Q % -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q

27 Toyota Ford FCA US LLC Honda Nissan Hyundai Subaru BMW Mazda Daimler Mitsubishi Tata Toyota edged out GM to lead Q2 market share among manufacturers. The Detroit 3 took spots 2 through 4 for a combined share of 40.3% GM Kia VW 0.6% 0.5% Manufacturer Market Share (Top 15) 2.3% 2.1% 2.1% 4.0% 3.8% 3.5% 4.3% 8.2% 11.2% 12.2% 12.1% 16.0% 15.9% New vehicle registrations Individual buyers Q % 5% 10% 15% 20% Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q

28 Toyota Ford Chevrolet Honda Nissan Jeep Hyundai Kia Subaru GMC Dodge Ram Volkswagen Lexus Mazda Of the 64 brands with new individual registrations in Q2 2015, the top 7 brands account for two thirds of a new registrations 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% Brand Market Share (Top 15) 3.0% 2.7% 4.0% 3.8% 4.3% 5.2% 7.4% 10.0% 10.8% 11.6% New vehicle registrations Individual buyers Q % 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q

29 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 edged the Toyota Camry by 87 units to lead Q market share Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Toyota Camry Honda Civic Honda CR-V Honda Accord Toyota Corolla Ford F150 Toyota RAV4 Ford Escape Nissan Altima Chevrolet Equinox Jeep Wrangler Ram 1500 Ford Fusion Nissan Rogue Model Market Share 1.98% 1.82% 1.70% 1.66% 1.57% 1.56% 1.50% 1.41% New vehicle registrations Individual buyers Q % 2.53% 2.44% 2.44% 2.37% 2.34% 2.31% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q

30 Non-Luxury brands accounted for nearly 90% of all new registration in Q2 Vehicle Class Share Exotic 0.05% New vehicle registrations Individual buyers Q Luxury 12.28% Non-Luxury 87.67% Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q

31 Front wheel drive vehicles are the most common new vehicle drive type and while gasoline vehicle account for more than 90% of all new vehicles Market Share by Drive Type 100% 0.5% 11.2% 90% 80% 100% 90% 80% Market Share by Fuel Type 2.9% 2.6% 0.7% 0.04% 70% 60% 36.6% 70% 60% 50% 40% 50% 40% 93.8% 30% 20% 51.7% New vehicle registrations 30% 20% New vehicle registrations 10% 0% Individual buyers Q % 0% Individual buyers Q Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q

32 Individuals aged 40 to 69 exhibit nearly 50% of the new vehicle purchasing power in the U.S. 25% New Vehicle Buyer Distribution by Age New vehicle registrations Individual buyers 2015 Year to Date (May) 20% 15% 15.8% 17.9% 13.5% 19.9% 10% 7.0% 6.8% 6.8% 8.5% 5% 3.7% 0% Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q

33 Individuals with incomes between $50 and $100k have been the most active buying populations year to date New Vehicle Buyer Distribution by Income New vehicle registrations Individual buyers 2015 Year to Date (May) Unknown/ Unmatched $175,000+ $125,000 - $174,999 $100,000 - $124, % 8.9% 9.0% 9.9% $75,000 - $99, % $50,000 - $74, % $35,000 - $49, % $1,000 - $34, % 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q

34 70% 60% African-Americans, Asians, and Hispanics all experienced increases in new vehicle registrations over 2014 New Vehicle Buyer Distribution by Ethnicity 2014 YTD 2015 YTD 64.7% 62.3% New vehicle registrations Individual buyers 2015 Year to Date (May) 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 6.0% 4.9% 10.7% 12.2% 13.7% 13.4% 0% 6.6% 5.6% African American Asian Hispanic Non-Hispanic White Unknown/ Unmatched Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q

35 In summary Light duty market size grows by 6.2M vehicles over the last 12 months as market share has grown in the CUV and Small Car segments over the last 6 years. We continue to see the aftermarket sweet spot decline in volume and the rolling average vehicle age stays flat as new vehicle sales continues to increase. Through June 2015, new individual registrations are up 2.8% over 2014 Led by the Entry Level CUV segment, the top 10 vehicle segments account for nearly 80% of new registration volume Buyers aged exhibit nearly 50% of the new vehicle purchasing power in the U.S. African-Americans, Asians and Hispanics all experienced year over year increases in new vehicle buying 35

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