2017 Should be Another Strong Year for Area New Vehicle Market

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1 Third Quarter 2017 Volume 29, Number 4 FORECAST 2017 Should be Another Strong Year for Area New Vehicle Market Key factors providing a boost to new vehicle sales Key factors holding back new vehicle sales Incentive to upgrade. Advanced features that were once restricted to luxury vehicles are now commonplace on mainstream products (i.e, mitigation braking, lane alert, smart cruise control, blind spot monitoring, rear-view cameras, etc.). These new technologies are providing a strong motivation for consumers to enter the new vehicle market. New products. In the past, auto companies have not been responsive to shifting consumer tastes. But that s not the case in As demand for SUVs has grown, manufacturers have introduced desirable new products in every conceivable size and configuration. And if fuel prices were to unexpectedly surge, there are a slew of plug in and allelectric vehicles scheduled to be introduced over the next few years. Economic fundamentals are sound. Unemployment rates are very low, incomes are moving higher, household net worth is at an all-time high, GDP growth is solid, and consumer confidence is strong. It would be unprecedented for new vehicle sales to decline sharply in an environment with such strong core economic fundamentals. Pent up demand is easing. Following seven years of increasing sales, the market has fully recovered from the low point in 2009, and as a result, pent up demand is easing. As pointed out on the left, there are a multitude of reasons for automotive consumers to be motivated to replace their current vehicles, but the frequency of purchases that occur out of necessity (i.e., current cars are wearing out) is lessening. Rising interest rates. After several years of hovering near zero, interest rates are on the rise. It s not likely to be an abrupt, upward march, but it s inevitable that they will increase. Higher interest rates lead to increasing monthly finance and lease payments, which put a drag on new vehicle sales. Insufficient savings. Leading into the financial crisis of 2008, households had amassed record debt. After several years of deleveraging, the debt burden has eased significantly. However, most households still have insufficient savings for retirement. As a result, consumers need to build savings, which will put a crimp on retail spending. Annual Trend in Area Market Market Summary New light vehicle registrations 225, , , , , ,000 75,000 50, Forecast YTD '16 YTD '17 % Chg. Mkt. Share thru Sept. thru Sept* '16 to ' * TOTAL 148, , % Car 59,598 52, % 36.4% Light Truck 88,673 91, % 63.6% Domestic 49,850 48, % 34.1% European 18,737 18, % 12.6% Japanese 67,858 65, % 45.7% Korean 11,826 10, % 7.6% Historical Data The graph above shows annual new retail light vehicle registrations in the area from 2010 thru 2016 and Auto Outlook s projection for Domestics consist of vehicles sold by GM, Ford, FCA (excluding Alfa and FIAT), and Tesla. Historical figures were revised by IHS Markit and will differ slightly from those shown in previous releases. *Figures for Sept., 2017 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

2 Page 2 MARKET TRACKER: QUARTERLY RESULTS Area Registrations Declined Slightly in 3Q 17 QUARTERLY TREND Percent Change in Area and U.S. New Vehicle Market QUARTERLY PERSPECTIVE 3Q 2017 Registrations Versus Average for Previous Five Years % change versus year earlier 10.0% 7.5% 5.0% 2.5% 0.0% -2.5% -5.0% The area market declined slightly in 3Q 17, while the U.S. was essentially flat. 3Q '17 Despite declining from a year earlier, 3Q registrations this year were stronger than the five year average. 50, % -10.0% Q4 '16 Q1 '17 Q2 '17 Q3 '17* Area 1.9% -3.5% -3.5% -2.8% U.S. 2.7% 0.1% -1.2% 0.2% * Figures for the Third Quarter of 2017 were estimated by Auto Outlook based on data for July and August. 3Q avg. ('12 to '16) 49, ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Quarterly new retail light vehicle registrations * Figures for 3Q 2017 were estimated by Auto Outlook based on data for July and August. MARKET TRACKER: AREA MARKET VERSUS U.S. Area and U.S. Markets Down Slightly Percent change in registrations YTD '17 thru Sept.* vs. YTD '16 Passenger car market share YTD '17 thru Sept.* Domestic brand market share YTD '17 thru Sept. Area Market U.S. Market -3.3% -0.3% 36.4% 36.0% 34.1% 41.3% Top 10 brands and market share YTD '17 thru Sept.* First Toyota 12.2% Toyota 13.6% Second Honda 10.9% Ford 12.2% Third Ford 9.9% Chevrolet 11.4% Fourth Nissan 8.3% Honda 10.2% Fifth Chevrolet 7.1% Nissan 7.2% Sixth Jeep 6.6% Jeep 5.2% Seventh Subaru 5.6% Subaru 4.2% Eighth Hyundai 4.2% Hyundai 3.7% Ninth Kia 3.2% Kia 3.5% Tenth Mercedes 2.6% GMC 3.3% *Sept figures estimated by Auto Outlook Source: IHS Markit Greater Philadelphia Auto Outlook Third Quarter 2017 Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc. PO Box 390 Exton, PA Phone: Editor: Jeffrey A. Foltz Reproduction, including photocopying of this publication in whole or in part, is prohibited without the express permission of Auto Outlook, Inc. Any material quoted must be attributed to, published by Auto Outlook, Inc. on behalf of the Auto Dealers Association of Greater Philadelphia, and must also include the statement: Data Unforeseen events may affect the forecast projections. Consequently, Auto Outlook is not responsible for management decisions based on the content of Greater Philadelphia Auto Outlook.

3 Third Quarter 2017 Page 3 MARKET TRACKER: HYBRID AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES Prius and RAV4 are Top Sellers in Hybrid/Electric Market 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Q4 14 Quarterly Alternative Powertrain Market Share (includes hybrid and electric vehicles) Q1 15 Q2 15 Trendline Hybrid/electric vehicle market share in Q3 17: 2.6% Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 The graph above shows hybrid powertrain and electric vehicle quarterly market share in the area. The line shows market share trend over the past 12 quarters. *Third Quarter 2017 includes July and August. Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17* New Retail Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Registrations Top 10 Selling Models in Area - YTD '17 thru August Rank Model Regs. 1 Toyota Prius Toyota RAV Ford C-Max Ford Fusion Kia Niro Honda Accord Tesla Model S Toyota Highlander Toyota Camry Lexus RX 80 MARKET TRACKER - SEGMENTS Mid Size SUV Segment Surpasses Mid Size Car Segment Market Share YTD 16 thru August Philadelphia Area Segment Market Share Review Market Share YTD 17 thru August Change in share YTD 16 to 17 Best selling model in segment Compact SUV Toyota RAV4 Compact Car Honda Civic Mid Size SUV Jeep Grand Cherokee Mid Size Car Honda Accord Full Size Pickup Ford F Series Luxury Mid Size SUV Lexus RX Near Luxury Car Mercedes C-Class Luxury Compact SUV Acura RDX Subcompact SUV Honda HR-V Luxury and High-end Sports Cars Mercedes E-Class Mini Van Honda Odyssey Large Car Nissan Maxima Subcompact Car Honda Fit Compact/Mid-Size Pickup Toyota Tacoma Large Van Ford Transit Connect Van Large SUV Chevrolet Tahoe Sports/Pony cars Dodge Challenger Luxury Large SUV Mercedes GLS/GL-Class Entry Luxury Car Audi A3 Luxury Subcompact SUV BMW X1 The table above shows Philadelphia area market share for 20 vehicle segments during the first eight months of 2016 and 2017, and the change in market share over the period. The best selling model in each segment is also shown. Segments are ranked from top to bottom based on 2017 share. Data

4 Page 4 Brand Registrations Report Greater Philadelphia Area New Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations Third Quarter* YTD totals thru September* Registrations Market Share (%) Registrations Market Share (%) 3Q '16 3Q '17* % change 3Q '16 3Q '17* Change YTD '16 YTD '17 % change YTD '16 YTD '17 Change TOTAL 52,406 50, , , Cars 20,630 18, ,598 52, Light Trucks 31,776 32, ,673 91, Domestic Brands 17,334 16, ,850 48, European Brands 6,531 6, ,737 18, Japanese Brands 24,216 24, ,858 65, Korean Brands 4,325 3, ,826 10, Acura 1,027 1, ,886 2, Alfa Romeo Audi 1,117 1, ,386 2, BMW 1,182 1, ,563 3, Buick ,075 2, Cadillac ,348 1, Chevrolet 3,774 3, ,793 10, Chrysler ,533 1, Dodge ,654 2, FIAT Ford 4,929 4, ,458 14, Genesis GMC 1,222 1, ,785 3, Honda 5,587 5, ,432 15, Hyundai 2,664 2, ,825 6, Infiniti ,548 1, Jaguar Jeep 3,352 3, ,504 9, Kia 1,643 1, ,983 4, Land Rover , Lexus 1,071 1, ,962 2, Lincoln Maserati Mazda 1,355 1, ,679 3, Mercedes 1,349 1, ,039 3, MINI Mitsubishi ,506 1, Nissan 4,261 4, ,462 11, Other Porsche Ram ,470 2, Subaru 3,079 2, ,343 8, Tesla Toyota 6,857 6, ,023 17, Volkswagen 1,244 1, ,195 3, Volvo ,445 1, *September 2017 figures were estimated by Auto Outlook. Source: IHS Markit The table above shows new retail light vehicle (car and light truck) registrations in the five county Southeastern Pennsylvania area market. Figures are shown for the 3rd Quarters of 2016 and 2017, and ytd totals for 16 and 17. The top ten ranked brands in each change category are shaded gray.

5 Third Quarter 2017 Page 5 BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART ONE Volkswagen Registrations Increase by More Than 400 Units The graph below presents a comprehensive picture of brands that are gaining (or losing) ground in the area market. It shows both the unit AND percent change in registrations during the first nine months of this year versus the same period a year earlier. Viewing both measures on the same graph provides a more clear-cut signal on how each brand is doing. 7 percent Six brands had increases of greater than 7%: Jaguar, Volkswagen, Ram, Mitsubishi, Dodge, and Lincoln. 100 units Six brands had increases of greater than 100 units: Volkswagen, Ram, Honda, Dodge, Jaguar, and Mitsubishi. Change in Area New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations (YTD 2017 thru September* vs. YTD 2016) Unit change (thin orange bars) Volkswagen Ram Honda Dodge Jaguar Mitsubishi Lincoln Cadillac Porsche Land Rover Mazda Volvo Buick Lexus Jeep MINI Acura Infiniti GMC % change Unit change Mercedes Ford Subaru Chrysler Kia Audi BMW Chevrolet Nissan Hyundai Toyota -50.0% -25.0% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% Percent change (thick light orange bars) *Figures for Sept., 2017 were estimated by Auto Outlook.

6 Page 6 BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART TWO Brand Market Share Leaders in Primary Segments Leading Car Brands Leading Light Truck Brands Non Luxury: Honda, Toyota, and Nissan Luxury: Mercedes, BMW, and Audi Non Luxury: Ford, Toyota, and Jeep Luxury: Mercedes, Acura, and Lexus Top 10 Non Luxury Car Brands in Area Market April 2017 thru September 2017* 17.3 Honda 8.1 Chevrolet 7.8 Ford 0.0 Chevrolet Hyundai 3.5 Mazda 8.7 Ram 5.8 Subaru Nissan GMC 6.2 Kia 10.9 Subaru 7.3 Volkswagen 12.4 Honda 8.9 Hyundai 13.3 Jeep 12.1 Nissan 13.9 Ford Toyota 16.1 Toyota Top 10 Non Luxury Light Truck Brands in Area Market April 2017 thru September 2017* Share of non luxury light truck market (%) Share of non luxury car market (%) *Figures for September, 2017 were estimated. Top 10 Luxury Car Brands in Area Market April 2017 thru September 2017* 17.6 Mercedes 17.0 BMW 10.4 Lexus 9.0 Acura 5.1 Infiniti 4.2 Cadillac BMW 10.1 Audi Infiniti 7.0 Cadillac Lincoln 2.7 Porsche 13.6 Volvo 3.8 Lincoln 14.2 Acura Land Rover 5.9 Volvo 14.6 Mercedes Lexus 14.8 Audi Top 10 Luxury Light Truck Brands in Area Market April 2017 thru September 2017* Share of luxury car market (%) Share of luxury light truck market (%) *Figures for September, 2017 were estimated. 20.0

7 Third Quarter 2017 Page 7 BRAND SCOREBOARD - PART THREE Subaru, Jeep, Nissan, and Acura Area Shares are Well Above U.S. The graph below provides a comparison of Philadelphia Area and U.S. new retail market share during the first nine months of this year for the top 20 selling brands in the area. Brands are positioned on the graph from top to bottom based on area market share. Toyota was the area leader, accounting for 12.2% of the market, below its 13.6% share in the Nation. Area and U.S. Market Share - YTD 2017 thru September* Toyota 12.2% 13.6% Honda Ford 10.9% 10.2% 9.9% 12.2% Nissan 7.2% 8.3% Chevrolet 7.1% 11.4% Jeep 5.2% 6.6% Subaru Hyundai 4.2% 4.2% 3.7% 5.6% Subaru, Jeep, Nissan, and Acura area market shares were well above U.S. levels. Kia 3.2% 3.5% Mercedes 2.6% 2.1% Mazda 2.6% 1.9% Volkswagen 2.5% 2.1% GMC BMW 2.5% 3.3% 2.1% 1.8% Area U.S. Lexus 2.0% 2.0% Audi 2.0% 1.4% Dodge 2.0% 2.1% Acura 1.0% 2.0% Ram Buick 1.4% 1.3% 1.9% 3.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% Market Share *Figures for September, 2017 were estimated.

8 Page 8 Three Key Factors Impacting New Vehicle Sales Factor The numbers... Primary conclusion... What it means for new vehicle sales... Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Consumer Sentiment Consumer sentiment '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 YTD Years '17 Consumer sentiment index increased to 96.2 thru Sept. of 2017, up from 91.8 in 2016 and 63.8 in Strong consumer sentiment will provide a boost to the new vehicle market Household Net Worth Household net worth (trillions of $'s) U.S. Household Net Worth '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 YTD '17 Years Household net worth was a record $95.4 trillion in the first half of 17, up more than 85% from 09. Rising household net worth will provide a boost to the new vehicle market Labor Market Change in area unemployment rate vs. Same month year earlier Change in unemployment rate Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Months Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Area unemployment rate declined vs. year earlier in each of the past 10 months. The strengthening labor market will provide a boost to new vehicle sales Bottom line: new vehicle market should remain strong despite mild softening

9 Third Quarter 2017 Page 9 MODEL RANKINGS Nissan Sentra Moves Up in Area Market During Past Three Years The graph below shows the change in rankings during the first eight months of 2014 versus 2017 for the top 25 selling models in the Greater Philadelphia Area market. Models are positioned on the graph from top to bottom based on the change in rankings. The biggest gainer during the three year period was the Nissan Sentra, which moved up 19 positions during the three year period. Sentra was the 21st best seller in 2017 compared to 40th in Other big winners were Subaru Outback, Subaru Impreza, Nissan Rogue, and Jeep Wrangler. Change in Rankings for Top 25 Selling Models - YTD 2017 thru August* vs. YTD 2014 Models on this side of the graph moved down in the rankings Models on this side of the graph moved up in the rankings Nissan Altima Toyota Corolla Toyota Camry Honda Accord Jeep Cherokee Honda CR-V Ford Escape Subaru Forester Toyota RAV4 Volkswagen Jetta Mazda CX-5 Honda Civic Chevrolet Equinox Toyota Highlander Hyundai Elantra Ford Explorer Jeep Grand Cherokee Chevrolet Silverado Ford F Series Ram Pickup Subaru Impreza Nissan Rogue Jeep Wrangler Subaru Outback Nissan Sentra Change in ranking during first eight months of 2017 versus 2014 Nissan Sentra moved up 19 positions. It was the 40th best seller in 2014, and moved up to 21st in 2017.

10 Page 10 COUNTY SCOREBOARD Light Truck Share Increases in All Five County Markets The tables below show specific data on each of the area s five county markets. The figures represent new vehicles registered to retail customers residing in each of the counties, and includes both purchase and lease transactions. Part 1 below shows total registrations and light truck market share during the first eight months of 2016 and Part 2 presents market shares for Domestic brands, and the top 10 selling car and light truck brands in the Philadelphia Area. The top ranked county in each category is shaded. Data COUNTY MARKETS - PART 1 YTD registrations thru August Percent Change Unit Change Light Truck Market Share (%) YTD 2016 YTD to to 2017 YTD 2016 YTD 2017 Change Bucks 28,044 26, % Chester 20,990 20, % Delaware 20,564 19, % Montgomery 34,075 33, % Philadelphia 27,879 26, % YTD 2016 COUNTY MARKETS - PART 2 Market Share Summary - YTD thru August Domestic Brands Top Ten Selling Brands in Area-YTD 2017 YTD 2017 Change '16 to '17 Toyota Honda Ford Nissan Chevy Jeep Subaru Hyundai Kia MB Bucks Chester Delaware Montgomery Philadelphia Percent Change in New Retail Registrations YTD 2017 thru August vs. YTD 2016 Share of Area Market YTD 2017 thru August 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Chester 16.4% Delaware 15.6% Philadelphia 20.6% Montgomery 26.1% Bucks 21.3% -15.0% Chester Montgomery Delaware Bucks Philadelphia

11 Third Quarter 2017 Page 11 Top Selling Models in County Markets The table below shows the top 25 selling models in each of the five area county markets during the first eight months of this year. Honda CR-V was the best selling model in three of the five county markets. Top 25 Selling Models in Philadelphia Area Counties Rankings based on new retail light vehicle registrations during YTD '17 thru August Rank Bucks Chester Delaware Montgomery Philadelphia 1 Toyota RAV4 Honda CR-V Honda CR-V Honda CR-V Toyota RAV4 2 Nissan Rogue Toyota RAV4 Nissan Rogue Toyota RAV4 Nissan Rogue 3 Ford F Series Ford F Series Toyota RAV4 Nissan Rogue Toyota Camry 4 Honda CR-V Nissan Rogue Jeep Grand Cherokee Honda Civic Honda Civic 5 Honda Civic Jeep Grand Cherokee Ford Escape Ford F Series Honda CR-V 6 Ford Escape Honda Civic Ford F Series Honda Accord Honda Accord 7 Subaru Forester Jeep Wrangler Honda Civic Ford Escape Ford Escape 8 Jeep Grand Cherokee Ram Pickup Honda Accord Jeep Grand Cherokee Toyota Corolla 9 Ram Pickup Honda Accord Ram Pickup Subaru Forester Dodge Journey 10 Jeep Wrangler Subaru Forester Jeep Wrangler Toyota Camry Nissan Altima 11 Honda Accord Volkswagen Jetta Ford Explorer Jeep Wrangler Nissan Sentra 12 Chevrolet Equinox Toyota Highlander Toyota Corolla Subaru Outback Jeep Grand Cherokee 13 Toyota Camry Ford Escape Toyota Camry Ford Explorer Hyundai Elantra 14 Ford Explorer Toyota Camry Hyundai Elantra Toyota Corolla Ford F Series 15 Hyundai Elantra Jeep Cherokee Nissan Sentra Mazda CX-5 Nissan Maxima 16 Toyota Corolla Subaru Outback Nissan Altima Hyundai Elantra Subaru Forester 17 Toyota Highlander Chevrolet Silverado Subaru Forester Chevrolet Equinox Kia Forte 18 Chevrolet Silverado Ford Explorer Toyota Highlander Toyota Highlander Kia Optima 19 Subaru Outback Toyota Corolla Jeep Cherokee Ram Pickup Chevrolet Equinox 20 Subaru Impreza Subaru Impreza Subaru Outback Subaru Impreza Jeep Cherokee 21 Hyundai Tucson Honda Pilot Chevrolet Equinox Chevrolet Silverado Ford Explorer 22 Nissan Sentra Toyota Tacoma Hyundai Sonata Honda Pilot Jeep Wrangler 23 Mazda CX-5 Mazda CX-5 GMC Acadia Jeep Cherokee Chevrolet Cruze 24 Jeep Cherokee Hyundai Elantra Subaru Impreza Nissan Altima Toyota Highlander 25 Chevrolet Cruze Chevrolet Equinox Ford Focus Volkswagen Jetta Ram Pickup

12 Page 12 FIVE YEAR TREND IN SEGMENT MARKET SHARES Non Luxury SUV Segment Dominates Area Market Segment Market Shares in Greater Philadelphia Area YTD 2012 thru August Segment Market Shares in Greater Philadelphia Area YTD 2017 thru August Luxury & Sports Cars, 10% Luxury & Sports Cars, 7% Luxury SUVs, 7% Non Luxury SUVs, 29% Luxury SUVs, 9% Non Luxury SUVs, 43% Pickups and Vans, 10% Non Luxury Md Size & Large Cars, 20% Non Luxury SUV Market Share in 12: 29% Small Cars, 24% Pickups and Vans, 12% Non Luxury Md Size & Large Cars, 12% Non Luxury SUV Market Share in 17: 43% Small Cars, 17% The two graphs above show market shares for primary segments during the first eight months of 2012 and Non Luxury SUV market share increased sharply while Non Luxury Mid Size and Large Cars had the largest decline. Provided by: Auto Dealers Association of Greater Philadelphia 3311 Swede Rd., Suite A East Norriton, PA Phone: FAX: Published by: Auto Outlook, Inc Copyright Auto Outlook, Inc., October 2017 is distributed exclusively to members of the Auto Dealers Association (ADA) of Greater Philadelphia. The publication is supported and provided by the ADA of Greater Philadelphia. is published and edited by Auto Outlook, Inc., an independent automotive market research firm. Opinions expressed in this publication are solely those of Auto Outlook, and are not necessarily shared by the ADA of Greater Philadelphia.

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