Drive Market Share Gains - Automotive Industry Insights: Q3, 2010

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1 Drive Market Share Gains - Automotive Industry Insights: Q3, 2010 Jeffrey Anderson, Director of Consulting & Analytics 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian Information Solutions, Inc.

2 Presentation Overview Third Quarter 2010 Automotive Market Overview Vehicles in Operation (VIO) Vehicle Registrations New and Used New Vehicle Market Share Purchase Loyalty Corporate and Brand Other Market Impacts Minivan Battle Orphan Brands Horsepower vs MPG Hybrid Share Impact of Gas Prices 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

3 Understanding the Customer Leveraging Experian s best in class data assets Integrated Information Assets Consumer Marketing Databases Credit Databases North American Vehicle Database Online Activity Databases Simmons National Consumer Study National Fraud Database 235 million consumers, 113 million households 1,500+ data attributes per record Attitudinal segments and touch-points 3,200 public and proprietary sources 110 million catalog buyers 148 million magazine subscribers Consumer 2 million credit inquiries daily 1.3 billion transaction updates/month 99.9% system availability 1.3 second response rate 220 million credit active consumers 50 million public records Business 22 million businesses 650 million+ vehicles in U.S. (all 50 states & Wash. D.C.) and Canada, including 280million+ vehicle in operation Includes title, registration, mileage readings, key vehicle events 5.5B+ vehicle history records, including 270M+ title brands and 92M+ accident related events 25 million Internet users interacting with one million Websites across 160+ industries Average of 60 billion s sent on behalf of clients per year 50,000 + adults surveyed annually 8,000+ brands in 450+ product categories Measures television viewing, newspaper and magazine readership, internet usage, radio listening plus mobile 700+ psychographic measures Easily extrapolated to any target file Approximately 600,000 known fraud records 186+ million cross-industry credit applications 215+ million consumer 200 +demographic and credit records 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 3

4 VEHICLES IN OPERATION 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 4

5 AutoCount Vehicles in Operation (VIO) Experian Automotive s AutoCount VIO is a compilation of all new and used vehicles registered on the road in the U.S. Quick Facts There are 240,282,742 light duty vehicles on the road Up over 480,000 units from last quarter (+0.20%) And up nearly 500,000 units vs. Q Ford is the most prevalent make, followed by Chevrolet and Toyota Ford F150 is the largest volume model, followed by the Honda Accord Trucks continue to maintain majority vs. cars (50.3% vs. 49.7%) 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 5

6 Current VIO U.S. Summary by Model Year Source: Experian Automotive as of September 30, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 82 percent of vehicles are 15 years old or less 82% Nearly 90 million : aftermarket sweet spot 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 6

7 Current VIO Vehicle Segment Hybrid vehicles represent 0.74 percent of current VIO Source: Experian Automotive as of September 30, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 7

8 Current VIO Percent Share Vehicles In Operation: Share by Manufacturer Hyundai Nissan Other GM Honda Toyota Domestic brands represent more than 60 percent of all vehicles in operation Chrysler Ford Source: Experian NVDB as of September 30, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 8

9 Current VIO Domestic vs. Import Share Import Brand VIO Share VIO Share Source: Experian NVDB as of September 30, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 9

10 Horsepower Trends Average Horsepower by Model Year Source: Experian Automotive as of September 30, 2010 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 10

11 VEHICLE REGISTRATION 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 11

12 U.S. Automotive Market Overview Total Vehicle Registrations by Quarter Used registrations are increasing in proportion to new registrations: 2.5x new in 2007, peaking at 4.2x in Q New Vehicle Registrations Cash for Clunkers Source: Experian Automotive Q vs Q3 2009, new vehicle registrations decreased by nearly 78,000 units (2.7 percent ) Q included Cash for Clunkers 690,000 units, 1/3 of Jul/Aug regs 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

13 U.S. Market New Vehicle Registrations New Vehicle Registrations C4C Q1 and Q2 increasing gap compared to prior quarters, Q continuing trend in context of cash for clunkers in 2009 Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 13

14 U.S. Market Used Vehicle Registrations Used Vehicle Registrations Used vehicle registrations have dropped slightly compared to Q3 2009, as last four quarters have been fairly consistent over prior year Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 14

15 New Vehicle Market Overview New Vehicle Registrations Q vs. Q Chrysler had highest unit gain versus Q2 2010, up nearly 9,500 units (3.4 percent) and narrowing gap to Honda Nissan had second-highest unit and percentage point gain, followed by Toyota GM had the largest unit drop, down more than 50,000 units vs Q (-8.7 percent) Hyundai had the largest percentage point drop, down 12.8 percent (32,500 units) Source: Experian Automotive Corporation Q Q Diff. % Change GM 582, ,082 (50,798) -8.7% Toyota 445, ,919 4, % Ford 472, ,511 (28,667) -6.1% Honda 327, ,978 (17,708) -5.4% Chrysler 276, ,270 9, % Nissan 220, ,864 4, % Hyundai 253, ,113 (32,517) -12.8% 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 15

16 Market Changers Ranked by Unit Change New Registrations Grand Cherokee up nearly 16,000 units RAV4 and Camry up combined 10,000 units Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 16

17 M&M s (Market Movers) Ranked by % change New Registrations Grand Cherokee up 15,874 units Sportage up 3,213 units Golf up 1,763 units Nitro up 1,749 units Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 17

18 NVE (New Vehicle Entries) Q3 Performance Numerous small and mid-size coupes and sedans entering market New entries represent more than 40,000 additional sales for 3 rd quarter Source: Experian Automotive New Vehicle Registrations 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 18

19 MARKET SHARE OVERVIEW 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 19

20 Manufacturer Market Share Analysis Q YTD vs Q YTD Market Share Nissan Hyundai Chrysler Other 2009 GM Toyota Nissan Who is up? Ford 1.2% share Chrysler 0.5% share Hyundai 0.4% share Other GM Honda Ford Who is down? Toyota -1.3% share Honda -0.5% share GM -0.3% share Source: Experian Automotive Hyundai Chrysler Honda 2010 Toyota Ford 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 20

21 Manufacturer Market Share Analysis Market Share Trend Source: Experian Automotive Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

22 Manufacturer Market Share Analysis - The Others Q YTD vs Q YTD Market Share Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

23 Market Share Analysis: Model Level Q vs Q Market Share Mix of vehicles helping to drive share for Ford, Chrysler, Nissan Small / Mid-Range car drop impacting share for Toyota, Honda, GM Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

24 Market Share Analysis: Segment Level Q vs Q Market Share Market Share Change Full Size Pickup CUV Entry Level Small Car Budget SUV Entry Level SUV Lower Mid Range SUV - Large Minivan Sport Car Touring Small Car - Economy Mid Range Car - Lower Full Size Pickup segment had greatest market share increase in Q when compared to Q Entry Level CUV, Small Car Budget, SUV Lower and Entry Level had strong increases Mid Range Car Lower and Small Car Economy had large market share drops Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 24

25 Market Share Analysis: New Vehicle Registrations Import Brand Market Share Import Brands exceed 50 percent market share Market Share Gas Price Spikes to over $4.00 per gallon Cash For Clunkers Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 25

26 Market Share Analysis: New Vehicle Registrations and VIO Import Brand Market Share Market Share Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 26

27 CUSTOMER LOYALTY 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 27

28 Loyalty Methodology Garage loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned, including vehicles currently in the garage or disposed up to 90 days prior to the new vehicle purchase. Provides complete view of repurchase activity Owned Vehicle: Honda Honda Honda Acura Disposal loyalty measure whether a new vehicle purchase matches a Multiple vehicle disposed of +/- 90 days of the new Levels vehicle purchase. Essentially tracking vehicle replacement 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 28

29 Loyalty Types Corporate Loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned at the corporate level. Includes all brands under the corporate umbrella Corporate Loyalty Example: Owned Vehicle: Brand Loyalty Example: Brand Loyalty measures whether Multiple a new vehicle purchase matches a prior Levels new vehicle owned at the brand level. Owned Vehicle: Honda Honda Honda Acura 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 29

30 Market Overview - Loyalty Q Corporate Loyalty Corporate Loyalty by Month Ford remains on top versus GM and Toyota in corporate loyalty 3 rd straight quarter on top Hyundai widens gap vs. Honda, nearing Toyota Chrysler continues to increase Source: Experian Automotive GM and Ford ended quarter with rising loyalty Toyota loyalty stable Hyundai narrows gap to leaders Chrysler on upward trend 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

31 Brand Loyalty Top Gainers for Q Q vs Q Brand Loyalty: ranked by % change Luxury brands represent eight out of the top ten spots in terms of proportional gain in loyalty Jeep and Kia brands also show strong increases Mercedes-Benz had highest point gain, more than four percentage points Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 31

32 Brand Loyalty by Model: Top 10 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Kia Forte Ford Fusion Source: Experian Automotive Q Brand Loyalty Ford Edge Ford Flex Ford Five Hundred Ford Focus Model Owned Chevrolet Impala Ford Escape Kia Soul Kia Sorento Kia Forte owners were most brand loyal, with more than two out of three returning to the Kia brand Ford vehicles made up six of the top ten in brand loyalty Kia had three out of top ten models Chevrolet Impala owners were ranked seventh in brand loyalty 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

33 2007 Who took from Whom? Net Units Ford (471,254) GM (330,313) Chrysler (225,213) Honda 325,555 Toyota 701,225 GM 64,000 Ford Honda Toyota Source: Experian Automotive Chrysler 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 33 Net Owner Migration

34 Q3 2010: Who s taking from Whom? Net Units GM (161,831) Chrysler (143,836) Ford 50,079 Toyota 113,814 Honda 141,774 GM 59,802 Ford Honda Toyota Source: Experian Automotive Chrysler 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 34 Net Owner Migration

35 Q3 2010: Net Migration to Hyundai GM Nissan 5,789 Ford Hyundai Honda 16,775 Toyota Source: Experian Automotive Chrysler 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 35 Net Owner Migration

36 Q3 2010: Net Migration to Nissan GM Hyundai Ford 5,789 Nissan Honda 8,488 Toyota Source: Experian Automotive Chrysler 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 36 Net Owner Migration

37 Battle for Market Share Q Market Share and Loyalty Market Share Nissan Corporate Loyalty 46.0% 35.4% Hyundai Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 37

38 ADDITIONAL INDUSTRY INSIGHTS 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 38

39 BATTLE OF THE (MINI)VANS 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 39

40 Minivan Segment Opportunity for new entries? Q YTD Market Share Total Market Share of Minivan Segment by Brand Minivan Share Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 40

41 ORPHAN BRANDS 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 41

42 Orphan Brands Are Owners Maintaining Loyalty? Mercury owners most loyal of recent orphan brands More Pontiac owners returned to market than Buick or Cadillac owners These Pontiac owners netted as many GM sales as Buick and Cadillac owners Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 42

43 HORSEPOWER VS. M.P.G 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 43

44 Horsepower and Miles Per Gallon Since 1997: 30+ percent increase in HP 15+ percent increase in MPG CAFE standard: 34.1 mpg by percent increase vs Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 44

45 HYBRID MARKET SHARE 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 45

46 Hybrid Market Share Source: Experian Automotive Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

47 Hybrid Car Market Q Market Share Prius captured nearly 64 percent of all hybrid car sales in Q Combined, Toyota and Honda accounted for more than 90 percent of all hybrid car sales Source: Experian Automotive 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

48 Hybrid Option Share by Model Percent Hybrid Source: Experian Automotive Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

49 Hybrid Option Share - Total Percent Hybrid Source: Experian Automotive Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

50 IMPACT OF GAS PRICES 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 50

51 Gas Prices vs. Vehicle Choices: Economy Car and Full Size Truck Initial spike in Economy Car segment tied to 2008 gas price exceeding $4.00 per gallon Two mini-spikes in 2009 as gas prices had quick 40 and 60 cent per gallon increases Gas prices have since been relatively stable, and Economy Car share has dropped to 10 percent Source: Experian Automotive, U.S. Dept. of Energy Market Share Economy Car Full Size Pickup Gas Price per Gallon Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 51

52 Fuel Prices vs. Vehicle Choices: Hybrid Car and Large SUV Short spike in hybrid car segment tied to 2008 gas price at $4.00+ per gallon Second increasing trend more closely tied to gas price increase thru 2009 Since peak share of 2.5 percent in mid- 2009, hybrid share steady at 2.0 percent Source: Experian Automotive, U.S. Dept. of Energy Market Share Hybrid Car Large SUV Gas Price per Gallon Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 52

53 Conclusions Strong overall results for Q3 2010, even when compared to Q (with Cash for Clunkers), and when compared to Q Ford has gained market share for sixth consecutive quarter, up 1.2 percentage points. Chrysler gained market share for the first time in six quarters. Hyundai and Nissan continue to gain market share. While Toyota and GM lost share (more than two percentage points combined). Ford continues to generate highest corporate loyalty, on top for third straight quarter. Hyundai is nearing Toyota in terms of corporate loyalty. New hybrid and economy vehicles are entering a challenging, dynamic market. Demand can be volatile a lot is riding on the future of gas prices. Horsepower and Miles Per Gallon have both increased over the past decade. What choices will consumers (and manufacturers) make as market heads to 34.1 m.p.g. CAFE standard in 2016? 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 53

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