Used Truck Update. Steve Tam ACT RESEARCH Co., LLC

Transcription

1 Used Truck Update Steve Tam ACT RESEARCH Co., LLC September 30, 2016

2 Presentation Overview Used Truck Market Performance Used Truck Database Overview Market Performance Charts Market Summary Sample in-depth analysis Export Market Outlook Q&A 2

3 Used Truck Database Overview Collecting data from >650 unique sellers Average sales of 4,000+ units/month Coverage US only LD (GVW 3-5), MD (GVW 6-7), HD (GVW 8) Retail, wholesale, auction channels Units sold, total sales $, average sale price, miles, and age Industry estimates for sales and inventory Continue to expand participation 3

4 Why It Matters Used truck activity impact on new truck demand Relationship to new truck sales Empirical data on how trucks are being utilized Used truck activity as a stand-alone market Used Truck Dealers/Sellers Identify equipment and industry trends Optimize inventory/reduce inventory carrying costs Benchmarking Aftermarket parts and service Market sizing Finance and insurance 4

5 Market Performance

6 CLASS 8: U.S. USED TRUCK SALES January '09 - August '16 (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Total Reported (Units) Monthly & 6 Mo. Avg ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright

7 CLASS 8: U.S. USED TRUCK AVERAGE SALE PRICE January '09 - August ' Total Reported Price ($000) Monthly & 6 Mo. Avg. Y/Y % Change Y/Y% Chg. (right axis) ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright

8 CLASS 8: U.S. USED TRUCK AVERAGE SALE PRICE 4 to 5 years old, ,000 miles Total Reported Price ($000) January '09 - August '16 Monthly & 6 Mo. Avg. Y/Y% Chg. (right axis) Y/Y % Change ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright

9 CLASS 8: U.S. USED TRUCK AVERAGE MILES January '09 - August ' Total Reported Miles (000s) Monthly & 6 Mo. Avg. Y/Y % Change Y/Y% Chg. (right axis) ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright

10 CLASS 8: U.S. USED TRUCK AVERAGE AGE January '09 - August '16 Total Reported (Months) ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright

11 Used Class 8: Average Retail Selling Price January '10 - August '16 60 $(000s) per Unit Y/Y % Chg Monthly & 3MMA Y/Y % Chg ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright

12 Used Truck Inventory Pain Index

13 Used Truck Market Summary Full year 2015 prices contracted 0.4% in 2015 Downward path through most of the year Weakness driven by late model aero sleepers Seeing lower mileage used trucks Younger trucks a little more common Roughly 38% of used Class 8 trucks sold in 2015 were old (8+ years), compared to 44% in was still a pretty good year for the used truck market, with an estimated 265,000 units sold 13

14 Used Truck Market Summary ACT s USED CLASS 8 SUMMARY AUGUST (F) 2016 TOTAL CLASS 8 MONTH/ MONTH YEAR/ YEAR UNITS (Same Dealer Sales) 19% 19% AVERAGE PRICE AVERAGE MILES AVERAGE AGE -1% -4% -3% -12% -7% -7% YTD/ YTD -2% -11% -5% -2% 14

15 In-Depth Analysis

16 UNITS Class 8: Used Truck Sales by Selling Price ,000 4,500 $42,300 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Under $10,000 $10,000 - $19,999 $20,000 - $12,999 $30,000 - $39,999 $40,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $59,999 $60,000 - $69,999 $70,000 - $79,999 $80,000 - $89,999 $90,000 - $99,999 $100,000 or more 16

17 UNITS Class 8: Used Truck Sales by Mileage , ,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - Under 100, , , , , , , , , ,000 1,000,000 or more 17

18 UNITS Class 8: Used Truck Sales by Age , months 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - Under 1 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 or more Years 18

19 How Many Miles Does a Class 8 Truck Drive in a Year? 100% CLASS 8: U.S. USED TRUCK SALES % SOLD BY ANNUAL MILEAGE BUCKET 90% 80% 70% 60% 56% <80k 50% 40% 33% <80k 30% 20% 10% 0% under 60,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90, , , ,

20 How Used Trucks Impact New Trucks A used truck is equity toward new truck purchase As used truck prices decrease, new truck buyers have less equity available, which act either as: A disincentive to buy, or A incentive to buy fewer And a constant refreshing of used truck inventory Exports of used trucks also affect capacity The greater the number, the greater the need to replace with new, which may or may not lead to more used truck inventory 20

21 Used Class 8 Sales Gap: Average Selling Price vs. Estimated New Class 8 Price 140 $(000s)/Unit New Price Estimate (Tractor Sleeper) $95K $100K January '03 - August '16 $108K $117K $ GAP: New - Used Average Used Class 8 Price Used % of New Used % of New Price $130K ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright

22 Export Market

23 Units (Thousands) Actual Estimated Used Class 8 Tractor Exports (Actual through July 2016) '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16e International Trade Commission, ACT Research Co., LLC: Copyright

24 Used Class 8 Exports Geographic Distribution of Road Tractor Exports YTD July Asia 32% S. Am. 1% Vietnam Vietnam Panama Mid East 1% Europe 0% Nigeria Nigeria Africa 18% Asia 28% S. Am. 0% Vietnam Mid East 2% Europe 1% Nigeria Africa 12% Panama Mexico Mexico Canada Guatemala Mexico C. Am. 10% 11,800 Units N. Am. 38% C. Am. 15% 6,700 Units N. Am. 42% Source: International Trade Commission 24

25 Used Truck Outlook

26 A Matter of History & Timing How many used trucks were manufactured when? When will those trucks escape the new truck market? We have laid the groundwork for a used truck forecasting model 26

27 U.S. Class 8 New Retail Sales CY 2013 CY 2014 CY 2015 CY 2016 Freightliner 67,600 78,400 95,400 82,100 International 26,600 31,100 28,800 24,800 Kenworth 25,900 31,100 37,200 32,000 Mack 16,300 19,700 19,800 17,000 Peterbilt 24,700 29,700 31,700 27,300 Volvo 20,700 26,600 30,900 26,600 Western Star 3,000 3,600 4,900 4,200 Others 2,700 3,800 4,100 3,500 Total 187, , , ,600 27

28 CY Used Class Sales by MY Mix Model Year CY % 17% 7% 2% 1% 0% % 26% 15% 5% 2% 0% 0% % 17% 34% 9% 4% 1% 1% 1% % 20% 27% 13% 10% 3% 2% 1% 1% % 16% 26% 9% 15% 8% 6% 2% 1% 1% % 10% 20% 6% 12% 12% 11% 9% 2% 1% 1% % 7% 13% 5% 11% 11% 15% 18% 6% 1% 1% 0% % 4% 8% 3% 8% 8% 15% 23% 14% 4% 2% 1% 0% 28

29 What s Coming Back in 2017? MY 2013 MY 2014 MY 2015 MY 2016 Freightliner 12,500 8,600 2, International 4,700 2,600 1, Kenworth 5,600 5,600 2,200 1,000 Mack 2,200 2,000 1, Peterbilt 5,600 5,700 2,700 1,100 Volvo 9,000 5,300 2, Western Star Others Total 39,900 30,400 11,300 4,300 29

30 300,000 U.S. New & Used Class 8 Sales 250, , , ,000 50,000 - US TOTAL Cl8 RS USED CL8 SALES 30

31 Used Truck Market Outlook Estimate used Class 8 sales will be 270,000 to 275,000 in 2016, slipping to 250,000 in 2017 Strong 2015 new truck sales and subsequent used truck sales lag added used inventory Prices expected to be down 10% in 2016 and stabilizing at that level in 2017 Mileage decline a bit further, but age unlikely to change by much 31

32 ACT Research Company, LLC 4400 Ray Boll Boulevard Columbus, IN Phone: (812) Fax: (812)