Black Book-Fitch Used Car Monthly Depreciation Rate
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3 10% 8% 6% 4% Black Book-Fitch Used Car Monthly Depreciation Rate SUV/Truck rebound after overreaction May 11 gas hits $3.97 Tax Season overall strong used market driven by tight supplies & tax season demand Sep 12 gas at $3.88 mid-year seasonality decline Gas rises Nov to Apr same as 52 wk peak 7/22/13 Tax Season, non-prime finance active; compacts, entry, mid-size fit in nonprime mkt 2% 0% -2% Forecast -4% -6% -8% US GDP bottoms Replacements needed due to Hurricane Sandy will add to traditional first of year value increase new model year rollover softens overall values Recovery to pre-recession levels of depreciation; increasing supply Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Compact Cars SUV/Trucks All Vehicles Trendline (All Vehicles) 3
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5 10.00% Fitch Prime Auto Loan ABS ANL Index vs. Black Book Used Car Monthly Depreciation Rate Black Book Used Vehicle Dep. Rate Curve (LHS) Black Book Forecast (LHS) Fitch Prime Auto Loan ABS ANL Index (RHS) 2.50% 8.00% 6.00% 2.00% Used Vehicle Monthly Depreciation Rate 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% 1.50% 1.00% Fitch Prime Auto Loan ABS ANL Index -6.00% 0.50% -8.00% % Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Mar % Sources: Fitch, Black Book Fitch Subprime Auto Loan ABS ANL Index vs. Black Book Used Car Monthly Depreciation Rate Black Book Used Vehicle Dep. Rate Curve (LHS) Black Book Forecast (LHS) Fitch Subprime Auto Loan ABS ANL Index (RHS) 10.00% 14.00% 8.00% 12.00% 6.00% Used Vehicle Monthly Depreciation Rate 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% Fitch Subprime Auto Loan ABS ANL Index % Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Mar % Sources: Fitch, Black Book 5
6 Fitch Auto Lease ABS RV Loss Index vs. Black Book Used Car Monthly Depreciation Rate Black Book Used Vehicle Dep. Rate Curve (LHS) Black Book Forecast (LHS) Fitch Auto Lease RV Loss Index (Loss)/Gain (RHS) 10.00% 35.00% 8.00% 30.00% 6.00% 25.00% Used Vehicle Monthly Depreciation Rate 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% Residual Value Loss Index -6.00% % -8.00% % % Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Nov-09 Jan-10 Mar-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Mar % Sources: Fitch, Black Book 6
7 2014 Depreciation Rates by Segment 2014 Q Q Q Q Full Year 3M Chg 3M Chg 3M Chg 3M Chg 12M Chg All Vehicles -3.3% -0.5% -4.4% -4.7% -12.1% Compact Pickup -1.0% -1.0% -2.2% -2.6% -4.3% Compact SUV -2.4% 1.7% -2.1% -3.0% -5.2% Compact CUV -3.4% 0.4% -5.3% -5.1% -12.4% Entry Level Car -1.2% 1.6% -8.4% -6.0% -13.1% Entry Mid-Size Car -1.5% -0.5% -7.5% -5.1% -14.8% Sporty Car -3.0% -1.7% -4.7% -4.2% -12.4% Full-Size Pickup -2.1% 2.3% -2.3% -4.8% -5.6% Full-Size Car -1.8% 0.8% -6.8% -5.9% -14.5% Full-Size SUV -3.4% 1.6% -4.5% -4.8% -10.5% Full-Size Van Cargo -2.1% 0.1% -2.3% 0.9% -3.8% Full-Size Vans Wagon -0.3% 1.8% 0.3% 3.1% 3.5% Full-Size CUV -3.3% 0.5% -6.0% -6.3% -13.2% Luxury Level Car -4.9% -2.5% -6.7% -5.3% -16.8% Luxury SUV -4.4% -2.2% -3.5% -4.3% -12.7% Mid-Size Pickup -3.7% 2.7% -3.0% -3.0% -7.0% Mid-Size SUV -3.4% 0.7% -3.2% -3.5% -9.3% Mini Van Cargo -5.7% 4.8% -7.2% -7.4% -14.1% Mini Van Wagon -3.8% 0.8% -4.0% -5.6% -12.0% Mid-Size CUV -4.8% -0.5% -3.8% -5.1% -13.1% Near Luxury Car -4.2% -1.0% -4.7% -5.2% -14.0% Prestige Luxury Car -2.7% -4.3% -4.6% -5.0% -18.1% Premium Sporty Car -3.8% -2.2% -3.3% -4.4% -13.2% Compact Car -2.2% 0.0% -6.3% -7.5% -15.2% Upper Mid-Size Car -2.9% 0.4% -7.1% -7.4% -15.4% Source: Black Book Analytics 7
8 Value Index of 2007 Year Cars Value Index of 2007 Year Trucks May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Entry Level Car Entry Mid-Size Car Sporty Car Full-Size Car Luxury Level Car Near Luxury Car Compact Car Upper Mid-Size Car All Cars May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Compact Pickup Compact SUV Compact CUV Full-Size Pickup Full-Size SUV Full-Size Vans Full-Size CUV Luxury SUV Mid-Size Pickup Mid-Size SUV Mini Van Wagon Mid-Size CUV All Trucks Value Index of 2008 Year Cars Value Index of 2008 Year Trucks Entry Level Car Entry Mid-Size Car Sporty Car Full-Size Car Luxury Level Car Near Luxury Car Compact Car Upper Mid-Size Car All Cars Compact Pickup Compact SUV Compact CUV Full-Size Pickup Full-Size SUV Full-Size Vans Full-Size CUV Luxury SUV Mid-Size Pickup Mid-Size SUV Mini Van Wagon Mid-Size CUV All Trucks Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 8
9 Value Index of 2009 Year Cars Value Index of 2009 Year Trucks Entry Level Car Compact Pickup Compact SUV Compact CUV Entry Mid-Size Car Full-Size Pickup Sporty Car Full-Size SUV 55 Full-Size Car Luxury Level Car Near Luxury Car Compact Car Upper Mid-Size Car All Cars 55 Full-Size Vans Full-Size CUV Luxury SUV Mid-Size Pickup Mid-Size SUV Mini Van Wagon Mid-Size CUV All Trucks Aug-11 Feb-12 Jul-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Value Index of 2010 Year Cars Value Index of 2010 Year Trucks Entry Level Car Entry Mid-Size Car Sporty Car Compact Pickup Compact SUV Compact CUV Full-Size Pickup Full-Size SUV Full-Size Car Luxury Level Car Near Luxury Car Compact Car Upper Mid-Size Car Full-Size Vans Full-Size CUV Luxury SUV Mid-Size Pickup Mid-Size SUV All Cars Mini Van Wagon Mid-Size CUV All Trucks 9
10 Value Index of 2011 Year Cars Value Index of 2011 Year Trucks Compact Pickup Compact SUV Entry Level Car Entry Mid-Size Car Sporty Car Compact CUV Full-Size Pickup Full-Size SUV Full-Size Car Luxury Level Car Near Luxury Car Full-Size Vans Full-Size CUV Luxury SUV Compact Car Upper Mid-Size Car All Cars Mid-Size Pickup Mid-Size SUV Mini Van Wagon Mid-Size CUV All Trucks Jun-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Jun-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 15% 10% Annual Depreciation of 1-Year Old Vehicles Jan08-Jan09 Jan09-Jan10 Jan10-Jan11 Jan11-Jan12 Jan12-Jan13 Jan13-Jan % 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -7.2% -6.7% -6.1% -6.3% -7.3% -6.7% -8.8% -10.5% -11.1% -20% -25% -30% -24.2% Cars Trucks 10
11 5% Annual Depreciation of 1-Year Old Cars - Entry Level v. Full Size Jan08-Jan09 Jan09-Jan10 Jan10-Jan11 Jan11-Jan12 Jan12-Jan13 Jan13-Jan14 3.1% 0% -5% -10% -8.9% -7.3% -7.4% -5.6% -15% -20% -15.8% -14.9% -14.1% -14.6%-15.2% -25% -30% -22.7% -23.8% -35% Entry Level Cars Full Size Cars 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% Annual Depreciation of 1-Year Old Pickups - Compact v. Full Size Jan08-Jan09 Jan09-Jan % Jan10-Jan11 Jan11-Jan12 Jan12-Jan13 Jan13-Jan14 5.3% 4.7% -0.2% -0.5% -4.7% -3.5% -6.4% -8.4% -8.2% -17.9% -27.7% Compact Pickup Full Size Pickup 11
12 Hylton Heard, Senior Director Fitch Ratings, Inc., 33 Whitehall Street, New York NY 14 Phone: , BlackBookAuto.com 12
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Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 2,038 2,922 4,089 4,349 6,256 7,124 8,885 8,885 8,885 8,885 8,885 8,885 9,107
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