AMSTAT Global Business Aircraft Resale Market Update NBAA BACE 2017

Transcription

1 AMSTAT Global Business Aircraft Resale Market Update NBAA BACE 217 1/4/217 AMSTAT will be exhibiting at NBAA BACE 217 Booth #N171 (US) / (Int l) / sales@amstatcorp.com

2 A Review by Aircraft Size & Age Introduction In an effort to look at the business aircraft resale market in a more granular fashion, in this report we divide the major market groups, Heavy, Medium and Light Jets and Turbo Props into three age segments: Older (>2 years); Mid Age (11 2 years); and Newer (<=1 years). (US) / (Int l) / sales@amstatcorp.com

3 Resale Retail Transactions First, we ll look at the Resale Retail Transactions (where the aircraft ends up in the hands of an owner or operator) year to date (through August) and compare that data to the same period in previous years. In the Heavy Jet group, the Newer and Mid Age segments have shown the greatest year over year growth with jumps of +38.2% and +12.9% respectively. While these percentages, especially for the Newer segment seem high, we should remember that this is the smallest jet segment and that a few transactions plus or minus will have a significant impact from one period to another. By contrast the Older Heavy Jet segment saw transaction activity contract 3.4% versus the first 8 months of 216. There was a similar story in the first 8 months of 217 in the Medium Jets with the Newer and Mid Age segments leading the way with +33.% and +3.7% growth yearover year respectively. The Older Medium Jet segment saw a 1.% decrease yearover year. As with Heavy and Medium Jets, the Newer segment of the Light Jets did well in the first 8 months of 217, racking up a +2.9% increase over the same period in 216. Interestingly, the Older Light Jets also performed well, with a +11.1% increase. By contrast, the Mid Age segment fell 6.4%. The Turbo Prop segments saw very little change in the first 8 months of this year versus the same period in 216. Each segment either up or down about 1.%. (US) / (Int l) / sales@amstatcorp.com

4 Global Business Aircraft Resale Retail Transactions First 8 Months of Each Year Heavy Jets Medium Jets Heavy Jet Y/Y transaction growth +16.8%; Came from Newer (+38.2%) Mid Age (+12.9%) segments; Vs Older segment down ( 3.4%) Y/Y Medium Jet Y/Y transaction growth +17.6%; Came from Newer (+33.%) & Mid Age (+3.7%) segments; Vs Older segment down ( 1.%) Light Jets Light Jet Y/Y transaction growth +8.%; Came from Newer (+2.9%) & Older (+11.1%) segments; Vs Mid Age segment down ( 6.4%) Y/Y Turbo Props Almost no Y/Y growth in any Turbo Props segments; Y/Y: Overall %; Newer.9%, Mid Age 1.5% and Older +1.3%. Note: Older: >2 years old; Mid Age: 11 2 years old; Newer: <=1 years old.

5 Availability % of Active Fleet For Sale Our second metric is the Percentage of Active Fleet For Sale. In the Heavy Jets, we saw a contraction in inventory in the last year. Overall, the percentage of aircraft for sale fell from 1.5% in September 216 to 8.5% today. The Newer segment dropped from 9.3% for sale to 7.1%, the Mid Age segment dropped from 1.4% for sale to 8.3% and the Older Heavy Jet segment dropped from 12.7% to 11.8%. Medium Jet inventories have also contracted over the last 12 months. There is 1.5% of the fleet for sale today versus 11.5% a year ago. Interestingly, the largest drop in inventory was in the Older segment from 15.9% in September 216 and 14.7% today. By contrast, the Newer segment fell from 7.5% to 6.7% and the Mid Age segment fell from 12.% to 11.2%. There was minimal year over year change in the Light Jet inventory between 216 and 217. However, that aggregated view while reflecting the activity in the Newer and Older ends of the market, hides what was a significant increase in Mid Age Light Jets for sale. Inventory in this segment rose from 11.% a year ago to 12.9% today and has been on an upward trajectory since early 215. Turbo Prop inventories contracted only slightly from 8.4% a year ago to 8.% today. At the segment level, there were also few changes. The Older Turbo Props were up 1%, Mid Age were down 2% and Newer were down 1%. (US) / (Int l) / sales@amstatcorp.com

6 Global Business Aircraft Resale Inventory Percentage of Active Fleet For Sale Heavy Jets Medium Jets 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% 8.5% Heavy Jets For Sale versus 1.5% year ago. Greatest contraction in Newer (9.3% Sep 216 to 7.1% today) and Mid Age (1.4% Sep 216 to 8.3% today). 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% 1.5% Medium Jets For Sale versus 11.5% year ago. Greatest contraction in all segments, greatest in Older Medium Jets (15.9% Sep 216 to 14.7% today). 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% Light Jets 11.5% Light Jets For Sale versus 11.7% a year ago. Increase in Mid Age inventory from 11.% a year ago to 12.9% today. Minimal decreases in Newer and Older segments. 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% Turbo Props 8.% of Turbo Props for sale versus 8.4% a year ago Essentially no change Y/Y in inventory levels Note: Older: >2 years old; Mid Age: 11 2 years old; Newer: <=1 years old.

7 Average Asking Prices Our third and final metric is Average Asking Prices. Year over year, the Heavy Jet group as a whole recorded a 8.3% decrease in Average Asking Prices. All Heavy Jet Age segments reflected this decline with Mid Age Heavy Jets falling 8.9%, Newer models falling 7.5% and Older models falling 6.7%. That said, the Newer Heavy Jet segment saw a +4.% increase in Average Asking Prices in the last 6 months. In a similar fashion to the Heavy Jets, the Medium Jet group also saw a yearover year decline in Average Asking Prices, in their case by 15.9%. The largest decline of any of the Jet groups. Within the Medium Jets, the Newer segment saw the biggest decline at 2.2%. The Mid Age segment fell 12.4% and the Older segment fell 4.%. The Light Jet group saw Average Asking Prices come down 9.8% year over year. As with the Medium Jets, the Newer segment took the biggest hit, down 13.1%. Average Asking Prices fell 8.6% in the Mid Age segment and 2.7% in the Older segment. Average Asking Prices in the Turbo Prop market fell 6.8% year over year. By contrast and unlike most other segments, Average Asking Prices for the Newer Turbo Props were up slightly year over year at +.7%. Older Turbo Props and Mid Age Turbo Props segments were down 9.3% and 7.6% respectively. (US) / (Int l) / sales@amstatcorp.com

8 Global Business Aircraft Average Asking Prices $ 35M $ 3M $ 25M $ 2M $ 15M $ 1M $ 5M Heavy Jets Sep 12 Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Sep 15 Mar 16 Sep 16 Mar 17 Sep 17 Avg. Ask $11.3M. Down 8.3% Y/Y; Greatest decline Y/Y in Newer and Mid Age segments down 8.9% and 7.5%, although Newer segment up 4.% in last 6 months. Older segment down 6.7% Y/Y. $ 15M $ 1M $ 5M Medium Jets Sep 12 Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Sep 15 Mar 16 Sep 16 Mar 17 Sep 17 Older Medium Newer Avg. Ask $2.9M. Down 15.9% Y/Y; Greatest decline in Newer segment down 2.2%; Older and Mid Age down 4.% and 12.4% respectively. $ 5M $ 4M Light Jets Avg. Ask $1.5M. Down 9.8% Y/Y; $ 4M $ 3M Turbo Props Avg. Ask $1.2M. Down 6.8% Y/Y; $ 3M $ 2M $ 1M Sep 12 Mar 13 Sep 13 Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Sep 15 Mar 16 Sep 16 Mar 17 Sep 17 Greatest decline in Newer segment down 13.1% Y/Y; Declines of 2.7% and 8.6% for Older and Mid Age segments. $ 2M $ 1M Sep 12 Apr 13 Nov 13 Jun 14 Jan 15 Aug 15 Mar 16 Oct 16 May 17 Newer segment showed marginal increase of +.7%. Older and Mid Age segments dropped 9.3% and 7.6% respectively. Note: Older: >2 years old; Mid Age: 11 2 years old; Newer: <=1 years old.

9 AMSTAT will be exhibiting at NBAA BACE 217 Booth #N171 We will be demonstrating the latest versions of our services, including the NEW AMSTAT Aircraft Valuation Tool. (US) / (Int l) / sales@amstatcorp.com