Drive Market Share Gains - Automotive Industry Insights: Q3, 2009

Transcription

1 Drive Market Share Gains - Automotive Industry Insights: Q3, 2009 Jeffrey Anderson, Director of Consulting & Analytics 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian Information Solutions, Inc.

2 Presentation Overview Third Quarter 2009 Automotive Market Overview Vehicles in Operation (VIO) Vehicle Registrations New and Used New Vehicle Market Share Loyalty Corporate and Brand Cash for Clunkers 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 2

3 Understanding the Automotive Customer Leveraging Experian s best in class data assets Integrated Information Assets Consumer Marketing Databases Credit Databases National Vehicle Database Online Activity Databases Simmons National Consumer Study National Fraud Database 235 million consumers, 113 million households 1,500+ data attributes per record Attitudinal segments and touch-points 3,200 public and proprietary sources 110 million catalog buyers 148 million magazine subscribers Consumer 2 million credit inquiries daily 1.3 billion transaction updates/month 99.9% system availability 1.3 second response rate 220 million credit active consumers 50 million public records Business 22 million businesses 600 million+ vehicles in U.S. (all 50 states & Wash. D.C.) and Canada Includes title, registration, mileage readings, key vehicle events 5B+ vehicle history records, including 270M title brands and 92M accident related events 25 million Internet users interacting with one million Websites across 160+ industries Average of 60 billion s sent on behalf of clients per year 50,000 + adults surveyed annually 8,000+ brands in 450+ product categories Measures television viewing, newspaper and magazine readership, internet usage, radio listening plus mobile 700+ psychographic measures Easily extrapolated to any target file Approximately 600,000 known fraud records 186+ million cross-industry credit applications 215+ million consumer 200 +demographic and credit records 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 3 Experian has the most well-regarded compiled consumer file on the market today The Forrester Wave : Database Marketing Service Providers, Q1 2006, Forrester Research Inc. January 10, 2006

4 Data foundation Comprehensive coverage Over 600 million total vehicles U.S. and Canada 280 million total vehicles in operation 825 million titles, 950 million registrations Seven Terabytes, over 18 billion rows Direct Sources Vehicle title and registration data in 50 U.S. states and D.C. Many other sources, including fleet, auction, maintenance, inspection, warranty, dealer, police Variety of Metrics Registration Trends VIO Reporting Loyalty Studies Market Share National Vehicle Database VIO Loyalty 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 4

5 VEHICLES IN OPERATION 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 5

6 AutoCount Vehicles in Operation (VIO) Experian Automotive s AutoCount VIO is a compilation of all new and used vehicles registered on the road in the U.S. Quick Facts There are nearly 240 million light duty vehicles on the road Down over 481,000 units from last quarter, likely contributed to by cash for clunker program Ford is the most prevalent make, followed by Chevrolet and Toyota Hyundai has more than 6.1 million light duty vehicles (ranked seventh) Passenger cars have retaken top place from trucks (50.03% vs %) Average age of all cars and light trucks in operation is 9.8 years 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 6

7 Current VIO Year Model 18,000,000 as of September 30, 2009 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000, percent of vehicles are less than 14 years old 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 80% 4,000,000 2,000, Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 7

8 Current VIO Vehicle Segment Hybrid vehicles represent 0.65 percent of current VIO as of September 30, 2009 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 8

9 Current VIO Percent Share Vehicles in Operation: Share by Brand Other Hyundai Nissan GM Honda Toyota VIO Share Index As vehicles age, luxury and collector brands make up larger share of VIO Model Year Range Chrysler Ford as of September 30, 2009 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 9

10 Current VIO Trends Vehicle Type Q Vehicles in Operation (VIO): 60% Impact of Cash for Clunkers and preference for fuel efficiency has helped drive cars back past trucks 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total U.S. MidWest NorthEast South West Light Truck 49.97% 49.6% 44.9% 51.9% 50.5% Passenger Car 50.03% 50.4% 55.1% 48.1% 49.5% as of September 30, Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 10

11 Current VIO Trends Drive Wheels by Region Q Vehicles in Operation (VIO): 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4WD AWD FWD RWD West 23.9% 25.3% 21.1% 23.8% South 28.6% 21.9% 37.1% 53.0% NorthEast 19.8% 29.7% 16.6% 7.7% MidWest 27.7% 23.1% 25.3% 15.5% Market showing slight shift toward 4WD and AWD vehicles Front Wheel Drive still dominates total volume by 2 to 1 as of September 30, Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 11

12 Q Vehicles in Operation (VIO): An estimated 82.1% of all light vehicles do not have basic OEM warranties. 100% 50,000,000 90% 45,000,000 80% 40,000,000 70% 35,000,000 60% 30,000,000 50% 25,000,000 40% 20,000,000 30% 15,000,000 20% 10,000,000 10% 5,000,000 0% 0 smart Hummer Maserati MINI Kia Hyundai Maybach Aston Martin Scion Bentley Lamborghini Land Rover Lexus Audi BMW Infiniti Mercedes-Benz Porsche Suzuki Acura Toyota Honda Subaru Nissan Cadillac Volvo Freightliner Saab Mitsubishi Mazda Lincoln Chrysler Saturn Volkswagen Ferrari Rolls Royce Jeep Chevrolet GMC Dodge Lotus Pontiac Jaguar Ford Buick as of September 30, 2009 Percent in Warranty Total Volume 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 12 Percent Covered by OEM Warranty Vehicles in Operation Current VIO Trends Estimated Vehicles In Warranty

13 VEHICLE REGISTRATION 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 13

14 U.S. Automotive Market Overview Total Vehicle Registrations by Quarter Used registrations are increasing in proportion to new registrations: 2.5x new in 2007, peaking at 4.2x in Q New Vehicle Registrations Q vs Q3 2008, new vehicle registrations have dropped only 270,000 units Compared to drops of more than 1.2 million units each in Quarters 1 and Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

15 U.S. Market New Vehicle Registrations New Vehicle Registrations Prior to Q3, New vehicle registrations in past 3 quarters were down an average of 1.3 million units per quarter 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 15

16 Impact of Cash for Clunkers Program July and August 2009 New vehicle registrations resulting from Cash for Clunkers program represented one-third of all sales during July and August Even if Cash for Clunkers sales are not counted, Q3 would still show improvement vs. prior quarter over quarter comparisons 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 16

17 U.S. Market Used Vehicle Registrations Used Vehicle Registrations Used vehicle registrations are actually up in Q3 2009, but still down 5.6 percent overall YTD 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 17

18 New Vehicle Market Overview New Vehicle Registrations Q vs. Q Overall, Q down 269,939 units compared to Q However, Hyundai and Ford had gains in registrations (30% and 5% respectively) GM showed the largest unit drop (down 207,554 units), while GM and Chrysler shared largest percent drop (27% fewer sales), followed by Nissan (down 6%) Honda and Toyota were down slightly Corporation 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 18

19 Segment Registration Trends Q vs. Q New Registrations CUV Entry Level Small Car Econ. Hybrid Car CUV Mid Range Small Car Budget Mid- Range Car Std. SUV Entry Level Van - Mini SUV Lower Mid- Range Pickup Full Size CUV and Small car segments had greatest unit increases in Q when compared to Q SUVs, Minivans and Full Size Pickups showed largest drops 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 19

20 M&M s (Market Movers) New Registrations Elantra up 22,353 units Ranked by % change Fusion up 16,569 units 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 20

21 Market Changers Ranked by Unit Change Silverado down 39,000 units New Registrations Elantra and Corolla up 20,000+ units Fusion and Escape up a combined 30,000 units Ram and Tundra down 14,500 units 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 21

22 NVE (New Vehicle Entries) Q3 Performance Continued strength of Camaro Further expansion of CUV category New entries represent Nearly 200,000 additional sales last 12 months New Vehicle Registrations 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 22

23 MARKET SHARE OVERVIEW 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 23

24 Manufacturer Market Share Analysis 2009 YTD vs 2008 YTD Market Share Hyundai Nissan Chrysler Honda Other Ford Who is down? GM -2.8% share Chrysler -1.8% share Toyota -0.1% share 2008 GM Toyota Nissan Hyundai Chrysler Who is up? Hyundai 2.2% share Ford 1.1% share Honda 0.4% share Other Honda 2009 GM Ford Toyota 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 24

25 Manufacturer Market Share Analysis Q vs Q Market Share Subaru had highest proportional gain in market share, followed closely by Hyundai and Volkswagen Hyundai had highest point gain, followed by Ford and Toyota GM and Chrysler had large drops in share points (5% and 2% respectively) 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

26 Manufacturer Market Share Analysis Q vs Q Market Share Small sedans key to driving share increases for Subaru, Hyundai and Ford Declines across key CUV, Minivan and Full Size Pickups segments impacting share for GM and Chrysler 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

27 CUSTOMER LOYALTY 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 27

28 Loyalty Methodology Garage loyalty measures whether a new vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned, including vehicles currently in the garage or disposed up to 90 days prior to the new vehicle purchase. Purchase Loyalty Owned Vehicle: Honda Honda Provides complete view of repurchase activity Honda Acura Migration Measurement Disposal loyalty measure whether a new vehicle purchase matches a Multiple vehicle disposed of +/- 90 days of the new Levels vehicle purchase. Essentially tracking vehicle replacement 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 28

29 Market Overview - Loyalty Q Corporate Loyalty Corporate Loyalty by Month Toyota loyalty has dropped, but has gained top loyalty spot for first time Ford closing loyalty gap to GM Hyundai continues to increase, closing in on Honda Chrysler has dropped by 12 points from Q2 level Chrysler had dramatic drop in loyalty in July and August Ford had strong loyalty in August and September 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

30 Brand Loyalty Top Gainers for Q Q vs Q Brand Loyalty: ranked by % change Porsche had the greatest proportional jump in loyalty, increasing more than 30 percent Porsche also had the highest percentage point increase, jumping by more than 3.5 points Ford had the second greatest point gain: more than 2.2 percentage points 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 30

31 Brand Loyalty by Model: Top 10 Q Brand Loyalty Toyota Venza owners were most loyal, with more than 60% returning to Toyota brand Ford vehicles made up five of the top ten in brand loyalty Toyota Prius was ranked 7 th in brand loyalty 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

32 2007 Who took from Whom? GM Ford Honda Toyota Chrysler 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 32 Net Owner Migration

33 2007 Who took from Whom? Net Units Ford (471,254) GM (330,313) Chrysler (225,213) Honda 325,555 Toyota 701,225 GM 64,000 Ford Honda Toyota Chrysler 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 33 Net Owner Migration

34 2009 First Nine Months: Who s taking from Whom? GM Ford Honda Toyota Chrysler 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 34 Net Owner Migration

35 2009 First Nine Months: Who s taking from Whom? Net Units GM (212,132) Chrysler (100,574) Ford (62,191) Honda 180,315 Toyota 231,394 GM 31,100 Ford Honda Toyota Chrysler 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 35 Net Owner Migration

36 CASH FOR CLUNKERS 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 36

37 Cash for Clunkers Program Overview Trade in old, low mpg vehicle for new, higher-mileage vehicle Vouchers of $3,500 or $4,500 depending on vehicle type, mileage, etc. July 1 through August 24, 2009 $3 billion in government funds Netted 690,114 new vehicles sales Study Methodology Match clunker VINs to Experian NVDB: identify clunker participants Find all those who disposed of same make/models as clunkers, but were not part of clunker program Track disposed vehicles and identify new vehicle purchases Compare Clunker participants vs Non-Clunker vehicle disposers in terms of: Brand loyalty, length of ownership, in-market frequency Buyer characteristics such as age, income 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 37

38 Cash for Clunkers: What Brands were Purchased? Brands Disposed in Clunker Program Brands Purchased by Clunker Disposers 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

39 Cash for Clunkers: Brand Loyalty Brand Loyalty for Clunker vs Non-clunker Overall loyalty to disposed brands was more than twice as high for those not part of cash for clunkers One explanation could be that it is due to condition of (and experience with) their vehicles versus those that were disposed in clunker program Disposed Vehicle 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

40 Cash for Clunkers: Brand Loyalty Brand Loyalty for Clunker vs Non-clunker Disposed Brand Large differences in brand loyalty across board for clunker vs. non-clunker disposers Clunker participants disposing of a Toyota were most likely to repurchase same brand Just over three percent of Chrysler clunker trade-ins were replaced with another Chrysler vehicle Smallest clunker vs. non-clunker difference among Pontiac and Mazda owners 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

41 Cash for Clunkers: Brand Loyalty Brand Loyalty for Clunker vs Non-clunker Pickups Minivans SUVs Disposed Vehicle Among pickups, Toyota Tundra clunker disposers were most likely to return to brand, Dodge Ram least likely Toyota Previa and Honda Passport clunker disposers were more likely than non-clunker counterparts to return to brand Chrysler T&C clunker owners least likely to return to brand Toyota 4Runner very similar for clunker and non-clunker disposers 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

42 Cash for Clunkers: What Brands were Purchased? Top Brands Purchased by Clunker Disposers Chevrolet: Ford: Dodge: Chrysler: Honda: Toyota: 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

43 Cash for Clunkers: In-Market Impact Average Age in Months of Disposed Vehicle Vehicles traded in for Clunker vouchers were on average nearly 3 years older than non-clunker vehicles disposed for new vehicle purchase Number of Months since Last New Vehicle Purchase Disposed Vehicle Those participating in clunker program had been out of new vehicle market for 20 months longer on average when compared to nonclunker owners Disposed Vehicle 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

44 Cash for Clunkers: Incremental or Pull Ahead? In-Market Model: Clunker vs Non-clunker Clunker vs Non-Clunker Index Clunker participants were more than 20 percent less likely to be ranked high in model that predicts likelihood of purchasing a new vehicle Conversely, those taking part in clunker program were more likely to be ranked in lowest inmarket ranking Clunker participants were less likely to be in-market for a new vehicle when compared to non-clunkers In-Market Model Rank 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

45 Cash for Clunkers: Who Participated? Age of Clunker vs Non-clunker Disposers Clunker participants were more likely to be years of age when compared to nonclunker vehicle disposers Greatest difference in age range, which represented one-third of clunker participants Age of Vehicle Disposer 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

46 Cash for Clunkers: Who Participated? Income of Clunker vs Non-clunker Disposers Clunker participants were more likely to have household income of $50,000 to $174,999 when compared to non-clunker vehicle disposers Largest differences in $75k-$99k, and $100- $124k Clunker owners appeared to be waiting for right time to enter new vehicle market Household Income of Vehicle Disposer 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved

47 Conclusions New and used registrations seem to have hit bottom in early 2009, and appear to be on upswing GM and Chrysler will need quick success with current and upcoming products to stem declines in market share Newer segments such as CUV (now at 60+ vehicles) continue to expand, but are pulling sales from existing SUV and minivan categories Finding right mix of vehicles for right-size segments will be challenge for manufacturers as fuel prices and politics intertwine New vehicles with unique features and appeal can have immediate affect on sales, market share, and loyalty Battle for market share continues to be interesting, as Ford and Hyundai successes continue, GM moves on with four brands, and smaller manufactures seize opportunity Cash for Clunkers program accounted for a quarter of Q3 new vehicle registrations, but debate will likely continue on the overall incremental impact and ROI of this program 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 47

48 Questions? 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 48

49 2010 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. 49