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1 Glass s Monthly Commercial Vehicle Market Report January 2019

2 Contents Foreword 3 New CV Market Overview 4 Used CV Market Overview 5 Residual Values Measuring our accuracy 6 Used van hero January 7 The 10 most popular used LCVs of And finally 9 2

3 Foreword: The Changing World of Commercial Vehicles Last year was a turbulent year in the UK commercial vehicle market. Much of the uncertainty driven by political and economic instability. Brexit continues to affect business decisions, resulting in reduced registrations across both the light and heavy commercial vehicle sectors. As the industry moves forwards, the commercial vehicles will face further quandaries over the next 36 months. Some with simple solutions, others that are likely to more difficult to implement. The issues on fleet manager s 2019 to-do list include: Understand the impact of the Government s Road to Zero strategy Create a plan to deliver a compliant fleet for the introduction of London s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) Realise the influence of WLTP for light commercial vehicles from September 2019 Review the Plug in Van Grant (PiVG) and how best to utilise prior to the government review in April Study the 23 million scrappage scheme for London s micro-businesses to understand whether their business eligible. Launch due Q Consider the fleet effect of clean air zones (CAZ) in Birmingham, Derby, Leeds, Nottingham and Southampton Allow for the VECTO legislation for heavy commercial vehicles rolling out during 2019 Many of these changes are welcome, however, there is no doubt the industry is in the middle of the biggest overhaul it has seen in the last 40 years. It will take resilience and determination to navigate through the political, environmental and economic upheaval ahead, but the industry will innovate, adapt, and grow stronger. Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor, Glass s 3

4 New CV market overview The new light commercial vehicle (LCV) market fell by 8.8% in December, finishing a turbulent year 1.3% down on Overall registrations of 357,325 were still enough to make 2018 the fourth best year on record. What is concerning, is the change in many fleet buying cycles and the resulting decline in fleet purchases, especially as these purchases are a key barometer of UK business performance. Strong performance in the pick-up sector saw registrations increase by 4.3% over the year. However, small (less than 2.0t) and medium-sized vans ( t) bore the brunt of the overall annual downturn, with full-year registrations of 25,070 and 50,956 accounting for 14.7% and 7.4% drops respectively. Both medium and large vans within the t sector matched their 2017 performance with 225,891 units registered (up 56 units), a 0% change on last year. There is some positive news for new registrations in 2019 as home shopping and house building continue to increase. Additionally, the introduction of more Clean Air Zones (CAZ) and the April launch of London s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) will drive operators into new and lower emitting vehicles. With the SMMT reporting that nearly 40% of all the LCVs operating on UK roads are over 10 years old, this is an added incentive for businesses to upgrade to cleaner fleets. However, supply shortages could be an issue with the transition from NEDC tested vehicles to WLTP later in the year. 4

5 Used CV market overview Volumes available at auction increased over the last two months of 2018, however, numbers sold reduced significantly. A near record high September sales figure of just under 11,400 units fell to just under 6,000 in December with buyers becoming ever more selective. However, prices are higher than at the same point last year remaining steady over the last quarter. December auction sales saw a 42.5% decline, with nearly 4,500 fewer vehicles sold versus November. Although a seasonal sales dip was expected, the % decline against the same point last year is concerning. The reduction in available quality stock and concerns over the economy, appear to be making buyers cautious. Average sale prices increased by only 0.5% over the month whilst the average age of stock sold reduced by 0.5 months to 65.2 months. The average mileage of stock sold during the month again remained static, whilst first time conversion rates dropped a further 3% to 76.3%, the second consecutive monthly fall. Medium panel vans remain the most popular at auction with nearly 40% of all vans sold coming from this sector. However, the oversupply of similar stock has seen both volumes and sale prices come under downward pressure during the month. Sales of large panel vans dropped by over 700 units in December as the lack of quality stock continues. The best examples commanded strong prices, however, average mileages increased during the month, resulting in prices falling by nearly 300. Anything in good condition gains buyer attention with vans from PSA, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz selling quickly when offered with sensible mileages. An oversupply of pickups has not helped demand with limited interest resulting in sales declining to under 900 units for December whilst prices continue to weaken for the majority of Euro 4 and 5 double cab models. However, the enhanced specification of Euro 6 versions sees values firming. Values for Land Rover Defender continue to fluctuate wildly from week to week, dependent heavily on mileage and specification. The small van sector continues to have most success with the higher specification models such as the Citroen Berlingo Enterprise, Ford Transit Connect and Volkswagen Caddy Highline actively sought by buyers. Three to five year old examples of the Fiat Doblo, Renault Kangoo and Vauxhall Combo remain desirable if in the right condition. An oversupply of the Ford Transit Custom, Renault Trafic and Vauxhall Vivaro has seen prices come under pressure for many of the base models. Strongest values are reserved for the Volkswagen Transporter, which is in short supply, or later plate Mercedes-Benz Vito models, particularly the 114 and 116 Long versions. 5

6 Residual values measuring our accuracy How accurate are our current Glass Trade values? Glass s closely monitors the wholesale auction market and all observations gathered are used to help us to achieve our target of the Glass Trade Value. The graphs below show Glass s Trade Accuracy For LCVs Observed in December 2018 versus the average Glass Trade Valuation for December. The image to the left is a snapshot of our accuracy reporting dashboard. Glass s subscribers get full access to our accuracy dashboard each month and filters include: vehicle type fuel type manufacturer This means subscribers can see just how accurate we are on what matters most to them. 6

7 Used van hero January: Peugeot Boxer Professional 2016 Present Each month, Glass s Commercial Vehicle editors hold a meeting to name the current Used Van Hero in the UK market this is the model the team believe offers versatility, durability and outstanding value for money. Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor: For those needing a reliable and economical large panel van with a generous level of equipment, the current Euro 6 version of the Boxer Professional is definitely worth a second look. WHEN WAS IT ON SALE? Peugeot s Boxer launched in 1994 as part of the Sevel joint venture between PSA and Fiat whilst sales of the higher specification Peugeot Boxer Professional started in the UK in October The range received its latest update in WHY? deadlocks, cruise control, air conditioning, satellite navigation and rear parking sensors as standard delivering great value for money as a used van purchase. WHAT S BAD The latest incarnation of the Boxer are still under Peugeot s comprehensive manufacturer three-year 100,000m warranty, so there is little to worry about here. However, check any high mileage examples for signs for unusual wear and tear. IDEAL BUY? Peugeot Boxer 335 Professional 2.0BlueHDi 130bhp Eu6 L3 H2 3.5t on a 2016/16 plate with 45,000 miles on the clock - Retail 12,725 + VAT and Trade 10,575 + VAT The Boxer has an extensive range of wheelbases and body derivatives to choose from, with economical engines delivering competitive running costs. An exterior facelift took place in 2014, with Euro 6 engines introduced in 2016, allowing the Boxer to remain fresh and appealing and a sensible choice for large van buyers. WHAT S GOOD? With a range of reliable, economical and Euro 6 compliant engines, the Boxer can enter any UK town or city without charge. This is a definite advantage for busy fleet operators, especially coupled to the above average levels of equipment, payload and load volume that makes the Peugeot Boxer stand out from the competition. The Professional model adds 7

8 The 10 most popular used LCVs of 2018 The commercial vehicle experts at Glass s have analysed thousands of used LCV sales to compile a list of the top ten vehicles sold at auction during Shown by range and trim level, the list creates fascinating insight into the preferred cargo transportation modes for small businesses. With the order of the top ten, for both range and trim, following virtually the same pattern as for 2017, the main highlight is the reduction in sales volumes across all of the top 10. This reduction is particularly stark for the Ford Transit Custom where used sales volumes reduced 10.3% in 2018 versus Size is a major factor when purchasing a van. The majority of buyers at auction prefer small or medium sized vans or alternatively 4x4 pick-ups, as they offer a perfect blend of manoeuvrability, payload and specification. However, with a diverse number of body styles, the medium van sector is the most popular at auction with nearly 40% of all used vehicles sold coming from this sector. Here available body styles include panel vans, crew vans, minibuses, window vans, chassis cabs and even platform cab variants added to a multitude of trim levels, body lengths and roof heights, ensuring interest across all van buyers at auction. Small vans also remain popular, with buyers in 2018 continuing to see the Citroen Berlingo Enterprise as the number one used trim investment due to its higher specification levels, renowned reliability and low running costs. The Citroen Berlingo came fourth overall in terms of used volume at auction followed closely by the Ford Transit Connect. 8

9 Glass s Monthly Market Report January 2019 Author: Phil Curry, Data Journalist, Autovista Group Contributors: Anthony Machin, Head of Content, Glass s Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor, Glass s Jonathan Wyatt, Analytics Manager, Glass s Dave Hill, Valuation Editor, Glass s Nadim Altaf, Valuation Editor, Glass s Media enquiries: media@glass.co.uk Glass s, part of Autovista Group 5 th Floor, Wellington House 125 Strand London WC2R 0AP w: e: customer@glass.co.uk p: +44 (0) And finally The first-ever Icelandic-spec Volkswagen Amarok conversion revealed The unique pick-up truck, modified by off-road specialists, Arctic Trucks, in partnership with local Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles dealer, Hekla, is currently being put to work in Iceland as a support vehicle for winter driving experiences, leading customers out onto the snow and ice. Published by Glass s Information Services Ltd. All material Glass s Information Services