Glass s Monthly Car Market Report October 2018

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1 Glass s Monthly Car Market Report October 2018

2 Contents Foreword 3 New Car Market Overview 4 SAAR Analysis October Roundup: Paris Motor Show Used Car Market Overview 8 Live Retail Market UK s fastest selling used cars in September 9 Residual Values Measuring our accuracy 10 Vehicle test: LEVC TX ecity 11 2

Foreword Thank you for downloading the latest Monthly Market Report from Glass s. Activity in the new car market sees continued disruption with the introduction of WLTP. Following the 23.

3 Foreword Thank you for downloading the latest Monthly Market Report from Glass s. Activity in the new car market sees continued disruption with the introduction of WLTP. Following the 23.1% registration spike in August versus 2017, where 17,661 cars had V5Cs generated by the DVLA, September suffered a fall of 20.5% versus 2017 or 87,336 less registrations, in this key plate-change month. The bulk of the September deficit is diesel related, with this fuel type falling by 42.5% versus This trend is likely to continue taking account of the combined effect of WLTP tested CO2 figures and recent increases in benefit in kind rates for most diesel engines. This combination is leading to more company car users opting for petrol and alternative fuel cars. Glass s understands that some volume manufacturers suffered downturns in excess of 50% in September, relating to delayed WLTP testing. The result being many models not available for sale in turn damaging dealer revenues. The expectation is that registrations will bounce back over the final quarter of the year when this situation eases. The used wholesale market continues with strength. There were concerns that volume would drop due to a poor new car market generating fewer retail part-exchange vehicles and fewer contract hire de-fleets. The wholesale market actually rose by 5.8% compared to 2017 with overall first time conversion rate increasing from 81% in August to 85% in September. Valuation accuracy remains key for the editorial team at Glass s. When comparing the September edition of our data to actual auction hammer prices in September, the Glass s values were within 0.8% of the market. Jayson Whittington, Chief Car Editor, Glass s 3

New car market overview UK sales drop dramatically as WLTP effect balances out Following a near-record August for sales, the UK s new car market slumped in September, as the effects of WLTP continue

4 New car market overview UK sales drop dramatically as WLTP effect balances out Following a near-record August for sales, the UK s new car market slumped in September, as the effects of WLTP continue to wreak havoc with registration figures. According to the latest data from the SMMT, September saw a 20.5% decline in sales. During a month when new plates were available to buyers, only 338,834 vehicles were sold in the UK. This was down around 87,000 units on the previous year and coincides with the implementation of the new testing regime. The figures were the worst for September since 2011, and only slightly up in 2008 when the global economy crashed, and the automotive market suffered as a result. The impact was across the board, with registrations by private consumers, fleets and businesses all declining, by 20.1%, 22.4% and 6.3% respectively. Registrations of petrol and diesel cars also fell, while hybrids and plug-in electrics fared slightly better, up to a modest 3.9%. Diesel car sales dropped by 42.5% as the market continues to suffer, with petrol dropping 6.7%. Declines were seen across almost every vehicle segment, with MPVs and Specialist Sports cars showing the biggest falls, down 54.8 and 50.9%. Luxury saloons were the only segment to register growth, up 3.5%, while Dual Purpose cars, which have enjoyed strong growth over the year to date, held steadier than most, falling just 3.5% in the month. September s large decline follows an unusually high August and a turbulent first eight months of the year as the market responded to a raft of upheavals, from confusion over diesel policy to vehicle excise duty (VED) changes and, latterly, the transition to the new WLTP emissions standards. The UK s Year-to-date performance is currently down 7.5% on 2017, reflecting these factors and a drop in business and consumer confidence. Over the coming months, however, some rebalancing is expected as an increasing ranges of new models are certified for sale and order backlogs ease. 4

5 SAAR Analysis October 2018 September saw the WLTP effect continue to take hold on the UK market, as sales which were achieving record highs in August, dipped dramatically as traditional vehicles sales failed to materialise. The new emissions test has meant that manufacturers either had to slow vehicle production until their vehicles passed the test, which for some meant adding new filters and other components, or they could pre-register existing stock and avoid the need to retrofit any cars not sold before the deadline. The new test is also more stringent, testing every conceivable vehicle option set-up, therefore causing some an issue with timing. Using Autovista Group s seasonality adjusted terms, taking monthly sales totals and working them as a percentage of the full year results from 2009 to 2017, then calculating the average, a predicted outcome for the end of the year can be seen. As a testament to the impact, Autovista Group s SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate), which considers the new car market in seasonally adjusted terms, recorded over three million units for the first time in August, before falling to under two million with September s numbers. September has an average of 17.4% of the UK s yearly car sales, therefore a drop in this month, especially one so large, can cause ripples within the rest of the data. A UK yearly sales figure of just under two million units would represent a massive yearly drop, way below the current Autovista Group forecast of 7.4%. Therefore, the rest of the year will see markets not just in the UK but around Europe fluctuate as models currently not on sale return to dealer forecourts, and demand starts to rise again. General subtle slowdown in SAAR since Brexit vote SAAR spiked and tumbled as old VED regime ended SAAR has recovered early in 2018 after weakness of Q Although demand is stable, registrations SAAR skewed by WLTPinduced boom and bust 5

Roundup: Paris Motor Show 2018 This year s Mondial de l auto in Paris allowed manufacturers to present not just their new vehicles, but new technologies to the public, as the industry continues its

6 Roundup: Paris Motor Show 2018 This year s Mondial de l auto in Paris allowed manufacturers to present not just their new vehicles, but new technologies to the public, as the industry continues its development away from petrol and diesel engines towards cleaner technologies. DS Automobiles, a brand spun out of Citroen and owned by PSA Group, used its home show to unveil a second SUV model to its lineup. The DS3 Crossback takes the brand s existing supermini model and bulks it up, adding rear doors and a longer body. Powered by a choice of three petrol engines or a diesel option it uses PSA s Common Modular Platform (CMP) that features on the new Peugeot 208 and the upcoming Vauxhall Corsa. The company also promised an electric SUV, the E-Tense, before the end of 2018, giving the marque its first EV. This will come with a 100kW electric motor and a 50kW battery, claiming a range of around 200 miles. It will be rapid-charge compatible with capable of an 80% in 30 minutes. Stablemate Peugeot was not going for subtlety on its stand with a giant fibreglass lion taking centre stage. The company divided its floor area into a space for new vehicles, and one to display its latest technology. The company was also showing the new 508 Sportwagon, an estate version of its saloon vehicle, and even had a plug-in hybrid (PHEV) model on display, although this will launch properly in Legend took design cues from the old 504 and looking less like some of the more radical concept cars sported by manufacturers; the company said it believes the vehicle could even go on sale, although not before It blends the older styling with some modern design cues and includes an electric drivetrain and some autonomous elements. Groupe Renault used the Paris to show its future vision, with not one, but three concept vehicles. Its newest, the EZ-Ultimo, a showcase for how luxury autonomous vehicles could look. Renault believes a single user would not own this vehicle. Instead, a business would own the vehicle chauffeuring guests from A-B. The interior is designed to be a lounge, with seating for three people including a large, backwards-facing armchair. The floor of the cabin is made of walnut, while surfaces are marble. This was joined by the EZ-Pro, a van concept that the company was also using as a food bar on its vast stand. This would be an autonomous van designed to make multiple drops in cities. The EZ- Go is a larger, more accessible autonomous vehicle for use in a mass-transport system. Peugeot included a concept car on the stand becoming the latest manufacturer to look for retro styling in its vision of the future. The e- 6

Roundup: Paris Motor Show 2018 Dotted around Renault s stand were various classic examples of vehicles, including the first car the company ever built, to pay homage to its 120th anniversary.

7 Roundup: Paris Motor Show 2018 Dotted around Renault s stand were various classic examples of vehicles, including the first car the company ever built, to pay homage to its 120th anniversary. Mercedes-Benz arrived in Paris with a new version of the B-Class with a planned launch in 2019 with a range of five engines. Traditionally the company s poorest performing model, the new models are built on the same platform as the A-Class. The new version is beefed up, with longer and taller bodywork to provide more interior space. Classed as an MPV but looking more like a conventional car, it confirms the brand s commitment to the segment when others are moving away. Both cars had contemporary looks and featured 2.0-litre petrol engines. All cars will get an eight-speed automatic gearbox, built by German company ZF. There was also a bit of novelty at the Paris show, perhaps making up for the lack of manufacturers committing to the event. Lego bought along its full-size Bugatti Chiron, while some classic cars were also on display, including one built in 1899, which held the record for the fastest car at the time, achieving 105kmh. This was particularly impressive, as it used two electric motors, highlighting that while the technology is growing today, it has been achieving results for over a century. On the stand was the company s latest concept, the Silver Arrows Vision One. The sleek and slender bodywork built on top of an EQ electric powertrain looking much like the company s W196 Aero Formula 1 car of 1955, the only covered-wheel car to enter the championship. Korean brand Kia unveiled the new Proceed, a shooting brake model sitting between the Ceed and the Ceed Sportwagon. The company also had the new Ceed GT on display, a much-expected model following in the footsteps of sister-company Hyundai s i20n. Kia also made much of its electric range, with a large area of the stand dedicated to the eniro model, a small, pure-electric city car. Finally, one newcomer to the show, and the global automotive market was Vinfast. The company is Vietnam s first global car brand and debuted two models, the LUX A2.0 saloon and the LUX SA2.0 SUV. 7

Used car market overview Glass s editors still visit hundreds of auctions each year in person to gather more insights and more knowledge about the used car wholesale market. This year is no exception.

8 Used car market overview Glass s editors still visit hundreds of auctions each year in person to gather more insights and more knowledge about the used car wholesale market. This year is no exception. The additional study allowed Glass s editors to name this year the year of the used car long before our competitors saw the same detail.. Through September, the used wholesale market continued with strength. Improved volume and high first time conversion rates showing the market growing 5.8% versus 2017 with the overall first time conversion rate increasing from 81% in August to 85% in September. At the start of the year, there were some concerns that volume would drop due to the weak new car market generating fewer retail partexchange vehicles and fewer contract hire de-fleets. This year, only March saw a reduction in cars selling at auction. This anomaly was caused by the increase in vehicle excise duty (VED) rates in April 2017 causing March 2017 to have record levels of new vehicle sales, in turn increasing the number of part exchanges going to auction. Each auction centre the Glass s editors visit report strong demand and the ability to sell additional stock. High demand is continuing and with the prospect of extended order to delivery times for new cars, the strong market could continue for the next 18 months. Glass s Editors continue to record additional data at auctions they visit where they report conversion rates in some auctions rising to 90%. 8

Live retail market UK s fastest selling used cars in September Every month we analyse our Live Retail Pricing data, powered by Radar, to tell you what the UK s fastest selling used cars were the

9 Live retail market UK s fastest selling used cars in September Every month we analyse our Live Retail Pricing data, powered by Radar, to tell you what the UK s fastest selling used cars were the previous month. Based on over 8.4 million annual real trade car adverts on the UK s leading advertising portals, with a minimum of 50 observations, this data gives you an indication of what s selling well across the UK s used car forecourts. Our interactive online map allows you to filter the data by region or vehicle segment so you can see exactly what models are popular in your area or stock profile. NATIONWIDE These were the UK s fastest sellers at a national level in September (with 50 or more sales). FOCUS ON South West These were the UK s fastest sellers in the South West in September (with 50 or more sales). MAKE AND MODEL AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL Vauxhall Zafira Tourer 26 Volkswagen CC 26 MAKE AND MODEL AVERAGE DAYS TO SELL Ford Galaxy 26 Volkswagen CC 26 Skoda Karoq 27 Hyundai Tucson 27 Audi A3 Cabriolet 28 Hyundai Tucson 28 Ford Galaxy 28 Mazda CX-5 28 Access the full interactive map 9

10 Residual values measuring our accuracy How accurate are our current Glass Trade values? Glass s closely monitors the wholesale auction market and all observations gathered are used to help us to achieve our target of the Glass Trade Value. The graphs below show Glass s Trade Accuracy For Cars Observed in September 2018 versus the average Glass Trade Valuation for September. The image to the left is a snapshot of our accuracy reporting dashboard. Glass s subscribers get full access to our accuracy dashboard each month and filters include: vehicle type fuel type manufacturer. This means subscribers can see just how accurate we are on what matters most to them. Get full access to our valuation accuracy dashboard 10

11 Vehicle test: LEVC TX ecity Last year, the London Taxi Company changed its name. Now known as the London Electric Vehicle Company (LEVC), the Geely-owned brand wanted to highlight its commitment to greener motoring in cities. With this rebrand came the launch of its new electric black cab, the TX ecity, and plans for it not to be a statement of intent in the UK capital, but around the world. Autovista Group News Brief Writer Phil Curry was lucky enough to test the new model on the public road. Design Usage However, so as the vehicle can be used daily for as long as possible, LEVC has built in a range extender to each model. From the large touchscreen to the left of the driver, which also features the radio and other vehicle settings, users can select whether to allow this to cut in automatically or run purely on electric power. The range extender can be a bit noisy, working as a generator to recharge the battery. However, on the vehicle tested, it was crucial as it had been running for around four hours constantly and the battery was almost depleted. On the outside, the vehicle is still recognisable as a black cab, a design that goes back to the 1930s. Over time, the vehicles have had to adapt, firstly closing off the open luggage platform before increasing space inside, and then with the need for disabled access, changing proportions to further increase space and access. Inside, however, drivers can find a digital dashboard, with speedometer and regeneration levels displayed on a screen built in behind the steering wheel. Like other electric vehicles, the car is driven like an automatic, the centre console featuring a lever together with a regen-selector. This allows the driver to select how much energy is captured to recharge the battery from braking and coasting. As the vehicle will be used to drive many slow miles around towns and cities, this is important to ensure as much electrical energy as possible can be captured, while not upsetting the ride comfort through sharper deceleration. 11

The passenger compartment too was large, spacious and easily accessible, perfect for modern day cities.

12 Vehicle test: LEVC TX ecity The far left of the driver compartment is for luggage, and the whole interior is a sea of grey plastics. As this is a vehicle in public service, it needs to be easy to clean, hence the lack of luxury. However, the driver s area was quite comfortable, with all controls in easy reach. The passenger compartment too was large, spacious and easily accessible, perfect for modern day cities. Driving The vehicle was also very comfortable to drive, the turning circle almost caused an accident with a 90-degree swing into the opposite lane from a layby but it keeps the unique feature of black cabs alive. This harks back to the need for taxis to make the turn around the roundabout at the Savoy hotel in London. Judging by the swing on the new model, drivers need not worry. Power delivery was good, the vehicle accelerated quickly, perfect for inner-city scenarios, pulling away from lights and into traffic. The 110kW motor provides the equivalent of 148bhp, and peak torque of 255NM, with the 1.5-litre petrol range extender offering 60kW of power when in use. Overall, the TX ecity is a step in the right direction, not just for the company, but also the public transport industry as a whole. While the range of 80 miles under pure electric power is short, the range extender takes this up to 377 miles, with an MPG of It is perhaps not the most economical offering at present, but by removing diesel and using petrol for the range extender, and ensuring short hops can be made by battery power, the TX offers the first step on the road to public electric transport and offers it well. 12

Glass s Monthly Market Report October 2018 Author: Phil Curry, Data Journalist, Autovista Group Contributors: Anthony Machin, Head of Content, Glass s Jayson Whittington, Chief Car Editor, Glass s

13 Glass s Monthly Market Report October 2018 Author: Phil Curry, Data Journalist, Autovista Group Contributors: Anthony Machin, Head of Content, Glass s Jayson Whittington, Chief Car Editor, Glass s Jonathan Wyatt, Analytics Manager, Glass s Andy Cutler, Forecast Editor, Glass s Media enquiries: media@glass.co.uk Glass s, part of Autovista Group 5 th Floor, Wellington House 125 Strand London WC2R 0AP w: e: customer@glass.co.uk p: +44 (0) Published by Glass s Information Services Ltd. All material Glass s Information Services

Glass s Monthly Car Market Report June 2018

Glass s Monthly Car Market Report June 2018 Contents Foreword 3 New Car Market Overview 4 News analysis the trouble with WLTP 5 New car market seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) analysis 7 Live Retail