Autovista Group Reproduction and commercial distribution is strictly prohibited. Glass s Monthly Commercial Vehicle Market Report October 2018

Transcription

1 Glass s Monthly Commercial Vehicle Market Report October 2018

2 Contents Foreword 3 New CV Market Overview 4 News analysis The 67th IAA Commercial Vehicle Show 5 Used CV Market Overview 8 Residual Values Measuring our accuracy 9 Used van hero 10 And finally 11 2

3 Foreword Welcome to the October edition of Glass s Monthly Commercial Vehicle Market Report. September saw a disappointing 6.1% decline on last year s registration figures. It was not a complete surprise given the ongoing uncertainty in the marketplace with the downward trend showing no sign of improvement. Glass s commercial vehicle editors forecast final registrations for 2018 likely to be around 330, ,000 units. The ongoing Brexit saga means fewer businesses are in a position to renew current fleets compounded with the introduction of Clean Air Zones (CAZ) and WLTP for LCVs in September 2019, planning is proving extremely difficult. The used auction market is proving more robust with near record levels of sales taking place. September recorded a 9.1% rise on the same point last year. Vendors report steady conversion rates at auction whilst buyers are paying over 15% more on average for stock than at this time last year. The used truck market remains difficult. A shortage of fresh auction stock continues, with slow used retail demand. Contract hire packages are making new trucks attractive to all customers compounding the problems in the used market. Used buyers that remain in the market actively seek Euro 6 units, to meet demand expected by the increase in CAZ over the next 12 months. Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor, Glass s 3

4 New CV market overview September sees drop in new LCV sales as 2018 trend continues The UK s light commercial vehicle sector contracted during September, traditionally the second busiest month of the year. New figures released by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) show that just under 54,000 LCVs were registered in the ninth month of the year, a 6.1% decrease and in line with the overall trend of 2018 so far. Demand for pickups has continued to grow, with registrations up 8.8%, as sales of small and medium-sized vans declined by 42.9% and 14.4% respectively. Meanwhile, although large vans experienced a modest 4% decrease, they have retained their market-leading share. In the year to date, registrations are down by 3%, with 274,247 new LCVs joining British roads. Overall the market remains at historic high levels that have been maintained since August 2015, with pickups enjoying a 4.6% boost so far this year taking them to more than 42,000 units registered. The largest moving market, removing 4x4s which saw growth of 283.5% based on just 364 sales up to and including September 2017, was Rigids, with growth of 28.9% year-to-date. Vans under two tonnes are down by 15.4%, while units between two and 2.5 tonnes are down 5.8%. In the tonne sector, sales are down 3%. Mike Hawes, SMMT Chief Executive, comments: We have seen fluctuations in UK van registrations so far this year, but the overall downward trend shows that there is some hesitancy in the market. Businesses need certainty to invest, and future growth now depends on the government providing the right economic conditions to encourage operators to renew their fleets. 4

5 News analysis The 67th IAA Commercial Vehicle Show The 67th IAA Commercial Vehicle show, under the slogan Driving tomorrow, lived up to its aspiration of being the world s most important trade fair for transport, logistics and mobility. The IAA show painted a clear message to visitors that the entire commercial vehicle sector is anticipating change. The show focused on market trends including electric mobility, digitisation and urban logistics within manufacturers of commercial vehicles and buses, in the trailer sector and at the multitude of suppliers. Hailing from 48 countries, 2,174 exhibitors filled 282,000 square meters of exhibition space unveiling 435 new vehicles for the first time anywhere in the world. With the central show message concentrating on electric mobility being available today with e-vans, urban buses and medium-duty distribution trucks. Many stands had e-cargo-bikes on display for the first time, providing a smart, environmentally friendly and affordable solution to the question of last mile distribution. Visitors to the show experienced the trend of digitisation from vehicle producers to telematics providers. Glass s Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor Andy Picton made his bi-annual pilgrimage to Hannover to understand what the commercial vehicle industry has in store over the next few years. What I saw did not disappoint, said Andy, with many companies using the show as a window to showcase concept vehicles, future technology and the future of electro-mobility. Indications across the show suggest that the industry is embracing alternative fuels and future transport solutions. All the manufacturers used the show as an opportunity to highlight electric and hybrid vehicles, with some omitting diesel products from their stands altogether. Volkswagen Group The hometown advantage of Volkswagen Commercial vehicles showed in Hall 12 where 50 current production vehicles filled the stand with 21 more vehicles in the outdoor exhibition area. Visitors could also drive an additional 37 vehicles on the test track. Volkswagen presented new solutions ranging from the Cargo e-bike to the e-crafter, for sustainable mobility for goods and people in urban areas. Additionally, the retro look of the I.D. Buzz Cargo echoing the appearance of the Type 2 Microbus represented a modern day take with an all-electric powertrain and Level 4 autonomous driving features. The company says that a production version of the I.D. Buzz could be in showrooms as early as Groupe Renault Bringing an extreme vision of last-mile delivery to life, the Groupe Renault EZ-PRO is an autonomous delivery concept featuring shared customisable robo-pods. EZ-PRO keeps a field-based human concierge for special deliveries and driverless robo-pod fleet management. With modular robopods for flexible shipping, the EZ-PRO is a platform designed for delivery companies, logistic operators, retailers and consumers. Renault also took the opportunity to reveal the new Master ZE. Available as a short, medium or long wheelbase panel van at 3.1t GVW, the Master ZE will also be available with a low loader Luton body. 5

6 News analysis The 67th IAA Commercial Vehicle Show Ford Deutsche Post subsidiary StreetScooter GmbH and Ford-Werke GmbH are entering a partnership to manufacture battery-electric delivery vehicles creating an important boost for e-mobility in Germany. Taking the chassis of the Ford Transit, the vehicle will be equipped with a battery-electric drive train and fitted with a special body based on Deutsche Post and DHL specifications. Nissan Nissan exhibited a concept vehicle called Navara Dark Sky, featuring a mobile astronomy lab. Built in partnership with the European Space Agency (ESA), the concept included Nissan s ProPilot driver assist technology and incorporated an observatory-class telescope on a bespoke trailer. Ford reveals at the show also included the Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) Transit Custom, currently undergoing trials in London and the facelifted two-tonne Ford Transit, with new front-end styling, upgraded cab and dashboard. DAF Trucks Electro-mobility was uppermost in the minds of the UK s best-selling truck brand. Launching the CF Electric at the show, DAF Trucks is targeting the heavy truck sector with a new electric design for urban distribution work. Designed to work on 40-tonne articulated distributions, the zero-emission 4 2 tractor unit can collect semi-trailers from outside emissions restricted zones and draw them in, making it ideal for operations within urban areas where single or double-axle trailers are typically used. DAF suggests the CF Electric will travel for 100km (62 miles) on a single charge and has rapid-charging capability up to 80 per cent within 30 minutes, or a full charge in around 90 minutes. Powered by a 210W electric motor with a 170kWh lithium-ion battery, the first series of electric trucks will be heading out on trial to major customers in mainland Europe over the next 24 months. Hyundai Hyundai showed its bold fuel cell truck indicating the technology would help establish the brand in Europe. Currently, there is no confirmation for a righthand-drive variant for the UK market. Cummins Engine giant, Cummins, focused on diesel at the show by displaying a concept emissions control system capable of reducing emissions levels in line with expected Euro VII regulations due within the next 10 years. PSA The new Citroen Berlingo and Peugeot Partner van along with sister van range, the Vauxhall Combo, is already available to order in the UK and all three received their first public airing at the IAA. 6

7 News analysis The 67th IAA Commercial Vehicle Show Mercedes-Benz In the Mercedes-Benz hall, the new Sprinter range took centre stage with a concept fuel cell version, the electric esprinter and sister products, the evito and the ecanter. Also displayed was the Vision Urbanetic concept vehicle. The concept enables on-demand, sustainable and efficient movement of people and goods reducing traffic flow whilst relieving innercity infrastructures. The new Actros made its debut featuring cameras instead of rear view mirrors. Designed to allow the driver an uninterrupted view along the side of the truck improving cyclist and pedestrian safety. BMC Trucks The Turkish truck maker launched the Tugra HGV into a booming cacophony of a dozen drummers, dramatic smoke rose from the floor as the cloth came off the brand s new Tugra heavy-duty truck. BMC will offer the Tugra in seven configurations, from construction to long haul. The cab-over truck has an imposing front design with thick horizontal bars and a wide stance. IVECO IVECO made history at IAA 2018 with its low emission area keeping their stand 100% diesel free stand, preferring to present solutions to sustainable and zero emissions transport. The 18 display vehicles highlighted sustainable solutions ranging from electric city buses to long-haul LNG trucks. IVECO also celebrated the 40th Anniversary of the Daily, commemorating the vehicle's history with a Limited Edition personalised with a specially created design. Convertors Convertors were out in force at the show. US temperature-controlled specialists Thermo-King collaborating with Northgate Vehicle Rentals launched an electric fridge van. Based on the Citroen Berlingo EV it uses a power take-off from the van s battery system to power the fridge unit, guaranteeing zero emissions and noise-free operation. Old timers Away from the high intensity bright lights and glitz of the main show area, set aside in Hall 21, classics from a bygone era brought back childhood memories for many visitors. Preserved and lovingly restored to former glories, vans and trucks from Borgward, Skoda, Bussing-Nag, Barkas, Magirus-Deutz and Henschel attracted enthusiasts with misty eyes. Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor says, With over 13 miles walked in two days, the IAA Commercial Vehicle Show really is an unmissable event. With a vast array of commercial vehicles from across the world, every view is different. If you love commercial vehicles, bring your walking shoes, the 68th IAA Commercial Vehicle Show begins on the September and runs to the October

8 Used CV market overview Auction volumes remain steady with traders paying a premium for the best available stock. On the back of this activity, vendors report steady conversion rates. Demand remains positive overall, with condition and mileage key to most decisions. There are growing volumes of ready-toretail stock whilst market demand for quality used Euro 6 products continually grows. September recorded a 4.9% rise in used sales at auction, with volumes sold increasing by nearly 1,000 units on the same point last year. Buyers have paid over 15% more on average over this period, whilst the average age of stock sold reduced by 1.4 months to 61.9 months and average mileage fell by 925 miles. First time conversion rates rose for the third consecutive month to 82.2%. Demand for all sizes of crew van continues with significant premiums paid over standard panel vans. These dual-purpose vehicles continue to hit the spot and combine nicely as a work and family vehicle. In the large panel van sector, supply of clean stock with sensible miles continues to be an issue. Anything fitting the bill is near-guaranteed a sale with special attention paid to dropsiders, tippers and Luton vans. The limited numbers are resulting in average sales prices increasing by nearly 400 over the last twelve months. The Citroen Berlingo is tried and tested with the Enterprise derivative the sought after model. The best prepared Kangoo, Combo, and Doblo are also selling strongly. Nevertheless, there is continued over-supply of certain derivatives, leading to average sales prices in this sector falling by more than 650 over the last year. Trade demand for the 109 and 111 Vito with the Renault Trafic engine is low in comparison to its distant French relative, particularly if damaged or with high miles. The smaller volumes of Transporter means it continues to outperform the market, whilst clean and tidy previous generation Dispatch and Expert are good value for money. The Transit Custom remains readily available as does the Renault Trafic and Vauxhall Vivaro, with higher spec models gaining attention. In this popular sector, average sales prices increased by more than 850 over the last year. Meanwhile, there are still too many 4x4s on offer at auction. However, nearly 1,700 found new homes during the month. Top specification automatic models with extras are the most sought after, with mid-range models often struggling and coming under downward pressure. Workhorse 4x2 and 4x4 single cab models are scarce and as a result, sell with ease. This sector has seen average sales prices increase by more than 350 over the last year. 8

9 Residual values measuring our accuracy How accurate are our current Glass Trade values? Glass s closely monitors the wholesale auction market and all observations gathered are used to help us to achieve our target of the Glass Trade Value. The graphs below show Glass s Trade Accuracy For LCVs Observed in September 2018 versus the average Glass Trade Valuation for September. The image to the left is a snapshot of our accuracy reporting dashboard. Glass s subscribers get full access to our accuracy dashboard each month and filters include: vehicle type fuel type manufacturer This means subscribers can see just how accurate we are on what matters most to them. 9

10 Used van hero October: Toyota Proace ( ) WHAT S GOOD? The Proace set itself apart from its PSA siblings by offering a standard five year/100,000 mile pan-european warranty. Standard specification included air conditioning, Bluetooth, electric windows and twin side loading doors. Reach and rake steering combined with a height adjustable driver s seat resulting in a comfortable motorway drive. The Proace is a used market favourite with payloads up to 1,200kg. Each month, Glass s Commercial Vehicle editors hold a meeting to name the current Used Van Hero in the UK market the model they believe offers versatility, durability and outstanding value for money. Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor: The medium panel van sector has always been popular in the used market, with the Proace deemed a reliable alternative to some of the mainstream competition WHEN WAS IT ON SALE? Launched in 2013 to replace the austere and ageing Hiace, the Proace is the sister product to the PSA Dispatch and Expert models. It remained on sale until the current model launched during WHY? WHAT S BAD In contrast to the models from PSA that had three trim levels, the Proace was only ever available with one. Inside, some of the hard plastics in the cab are grainy, whilst the buttons on the stereo are small and fiddly. Additionally, the rear door hinges appear to be flimsy compared to the competition making opening the rear doors to 180 degrees difficult. IDEAL BUY? Toyota Proace 1200kg 2.0D 128bhp L1H plate with 57,000 miles on the clock Retail 8,500 Trade 6,400 Available as a panel van or crew van in two lengths and two roof heights, the Proace offering included three Euro V drivetrains. 5-speed manual 1.6-litre 89bhp 6-speed manual 2.0-litre 126bhp 6-speed manual 2.0-litre 161bhp 10

11 Glass s Monthly Market Report October 2018 Author: Phil Curry, Data Journalist, Autovista Group And finally Volvo introduces Vera the truck that is impossible to drive Vera is part of a larger system. The sports car-like vehicle will essentially replace the driver s cab in normal trucks, and is able to move goods and heavy loads. The autonomous electric vehicle will operate together in a network, connected through a cloud-based service and management center. Contributors: Anthony Machin, Head of Content, Glass s Andy Picton, Chief Commercial Vehicle Editor, Glass s Jonathan Wyatt, Analytics Manager, Glass s Dave Hill, Valuation Editor, Glass s Nadim Altaf, Valuation Editor, Glass s Media enquiries: media@glass.co.uk Glass s, part of Autovista Group 5 th Floor, Wellington House 125 Strand London WC2R 0AP w: e: customer@glass.co.uk p: +44 (0) Published by Glass s Information Services Ltd. All material Glass s Information Services