Red Book. March 2014 LCV MARKETPLACE

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1 Red Book LCV MARKETPLACE CAP March 2014 What a difference a year has made! As last year s March edition of Red Book went to press there was talk of the UK economy slipping into a triple dip recession and the Bank of England downgrading economic growth forecasts. Looking back this was something of a conundrum because at the time we said that, rather than being subdued, the wholesale LCV market remained buoyant throughout February In fact, taking into account the usual seasonal ups and downs we d expect to see, it s fair to say the market continued in the same vein throughout the year. This was borne out in our published guide values. Looking at the current values of some of the highest volume models in the marketplace, average values have risen by 4.4% which is a clear indication of the resilience of the used wholesale market. A year on, according to yet another positively revised forecast, GDP growth is now set to rise by 3.4% in The talk is now of the UK economic recovery gaining momentum with output growing at a rate not seen since before the 2008 recession and jobs being created at the fastest rate since records began. Considering how well the used LCV wholesale market has weathered the stormy doom and gloom years, surely this positive news means that there are better times on the horizon. As we go into March this does seem to be the general feeling amongst the vendors we ve spoken to. Demand remains strong particularly in the medium to large panel van sector. Tippers and dropsides are also selling well as you d expect during the countdown to Spring with increasing demand from the building and similar fair weather trades. Some 4x4 Lifestyle Pick-up models have been struggling and whilst we are not suggesting for one minute that sales are dependent on the appearance of snow, it is a widely held opinion that the wet but relatively mild Winter so far has had an adverse effect on trade sales and the window of opportunity may have been missed. There is also very little demand from the export market for these vehicles at the moment and generally any vehicles priced over 10K are proving difficult to sell to dealers largely due to retail buyers still experiencing difficulties obtaining finance. The minibus and 7-11seat shuttle bus sectors also appear to have stalled and there is some concern over the amount of duplicate rotating stock around at the moment. From a supply perspective, compared to last month, auction entries were down by 8.5%, whilst the average age of vehicles increased from 60 months to 65 months. The average mileage remained much the same at 86,343. From our own independent vehicle inspections we have seen a significant improvement in the quality of auction entries with the average repair cost for body panel damage on vehicles presented for sale decreasing from 370 to 249. March - LCV Used Guide Price Movements 3 year / 60k LCV Sector Average % Movement Average Value Feb Average Value Mar Car Derived Van -0.9% 3,901 3,865 Light Van 1.4% 3,940 3,994 Medium Van 0.5% 5,631 5,660 Up to 3.5T -0.1% 8,383 8,371 Over 3.5T -0.1% 10,007 9,993 4x4 Pick-up Workhorse -3.0% 10,525 10,206 4x4 Pick-up Lifestyle SUV -2.4% 10,583 10,327 Forward Control Vehicle -1.5% 8,597 8,468 Mini-bus -5.0% 9,462 8,989 Vat Qualifying -0.1% 10,738 10,725 LCV Sector December 2013 January 2014 February 2014 Market Share Performance Market Share Performance Market Share Performance Car Derived Van 4.92% 98.26% 5.91% % 4.90% 99.72% Light Van 19.02% 97.59% 18.39% % 20.60% % Medium Van 8.22% 99.95% 9.92% % 8.29% 99.79% Up to 3.5T 50.67% 97.58% 51.90% % 50.91% % Over 3.5T 0.14% % 0.21% % 0.18% % 4x4 Pick-up Workhorse 5.16% % 3.03% % 3.47% 95.79% 4x4 Pick-up Lifestyle SUV 8.89% % 8.03% % 8.31% 97.42% Forward Control Vehicle 0.05% % 0.14% 90.96% 0.18% 91.91% Mini-bus 1.53% 92.68% 1.13% 90.70% 1.48% 97.89% Vat Qualifying 1.39% 99.15% 1.34% % 1.68% % Total Market % 98.45% % % % 99.86% The Top 10 Models in each sector tables below are intended to give you a clearer picture of the models that are driving the prices in the used LCV Market. It should be noted that that the Sector Share is based on actual sales and not the availability of these models in the marketplace. The % CAP performance values are also based on actual sales. Since our guide values reflect the market prices of basic vans in plain white as they appear in the vehicle manufacturer s price lists, some of guide price movements you might see in this edition may not correlate directly with the sales performances shown in the tables which include vehicles in all colours and specifications.

2 In some of these tables you may also notice the same model description appearing more than once, however, the CAP Identity numbers will always be unique. Generally the lower CAP Identity numbers signify older models and higher ones are newer models; further details can be found by looking up the model/cap Id number in the prices section of the guide. CAPId Car Derived Van Sector Share % CAP 9733 ASTRAVAN DIESEL - Club 1.7 CDTi Van 17.01% 98.0% CORSAVAN DIESEL CDTi 16V Van 13.00% 96.3% 8815 FIESTA DIESEL TDCi Van 9.90% 96.7% FIESTA DIESEL TDCi Van 9.83% 109.1% 9731 ASTRAVAN DIESEL - Club 1.3 CDTi Van 8.99% 99.1% 9734 ASTRAVAN DIESEL - Sportive 1.7 CDTi Van 7.63% 106.9% FIESTA DIESEL TDCi 70 Van 4.69% 99.9% 6340 CORSAVAN DIESEL - 1.3CDTi 16V Van (ABS) 3.40% 96.8% 9736 ASTRAVAN DIESEL - Sportive 1.9 CDTi Van 2.72% 109.4% 7583 ASTRAVAN DIESEL - Envoy 1.7CDTi 16V (ABS) 1.97% 90.4% Overall performance of this sector was down by around 1%. Notable exceptions were.. FORD FIESTA (05-09) VAN 0%; FORD FIESTA (09- ) VAN +2%; VAUXHALL ASTRAVAN (06-13 ) VAN -2%; VAUXHALL CORSAVAN (07- ) -2%. CAPId Light Van Sector Share % CAP 7373 CADDY C20 DIESEL - 1.9TDI PD 104PS Van 7.60% 104.7% COMBO DIESEL CDTi 16V Van [75PS] 5.18% 100.0% PARTNER L1 DIESEL S 1.6 HDi 90 Van 4.43% 98.3% 7352 CADDY C20 DIESEL - 2.0SDI PD 69PS Van 4.36% 103.6% BERLINGO L1 DIESEL HDi 625Kg Enterprise 75ps 4.32% 104.4% BERLINGO L1 DIESEL HDi 625Kg LX 75ps 3.76% 97.0% PARTNER L1 DIESEL S 1.6 HDi 90 Van [SLD] 3.67% 104.5% CADDY MAXI C20 DIESEL - 1.9TDI PD 104PS Van 3.05% 102.8% 7696 COMBO DIESEL CDTi 16V Van 2.58% 94.5% CADDY C20 DIESEL TDI 102PS Van 2.45% 104.4% Prices remained relatively stable in sector for the second successive month resulting in no general price movement however there were a few exceptions as follows CITROEN BERLINGO (02-12) VAN +2%; CITROEN BERLINGO (08- ) VAN +2%; CITROEN NEMO (08- ) VAN -2%; FIAT DOBLO CARGO (10- ) VAN +3%; NISSAN NV200 (09- ) +4%; PEUGEOT BIPPER (08- ) VAN +2%; PEUGEOT PARTNER (08- ) VAN +2%; PEUGEOT PARTNER (96-10) VAN -2%; VW CADDY (10- ) C20 VAN +2% VW Caddy (04-10) models continue to over-perform and are exceeding the values of 2010 onwards models on the same plate however it remains to be seen if the price increase in 2010 onward models seen this month reflects a longer term change in market sentiment.

3 CAPId Medium Van Sector Share % CAP DISPATCH L2 DIESEL HDi 90 H1 Van 9.47% 97.3% 6321 TRANSIT CONNECT 230 LWB DIESEL HDi 90 H1 Van 7.53% 100.4% TRANSIT CONNECT 200 SWB DIESEL HDi 90 H1 Van 6.85% 86.0% TRANSIT CONNECT 230 LWB DIESEL HDi 90 H1 Van 6.22% 96.4% DISPATCH L1 DIESEL HDi 90 H1 Van 6.09% 102.5% EXPERT L1 DIESEL HDi 90 H1 Van 4.78% 103.4% TRANSIT CONNECT 200 SWB DIESEL HDi 90 H1 Van 3.92% 98.5% 6315 TRANSIT CONNECT 200 SWB DIESEL HDi 90 H1 Van 3.20% 99.3% 6314 TRANSIT CONNECT 200 SWB DIESEL HDi 90 H1 Van 3.16% 84.6% DISPATCH L1 DIESEL HDi 90 H1 Van 2.93% 107.0% The market Prices in this sector remained relatively stable again last month resulting in a zero 0% overall market price movement. Last month we reported that Dispatch models with Bri-Stor Ladder rack system and internal racking have been struggling to make guide prices however this month we ve noted that they now seem to be selling. Notable exceptions this month are.. D] CITROEN DISPATCH (07- ) VAN +2%; FIAT SCUDO (07- ) VAN +2%; FORD CONNECT (09- ) T200-T230 VAN -2%; PEUGEOT EXPERT (07- ) VAN +2%. CAPId Up to 3.5T Sector Share % CAP 9155 TRANSIT 280 SWB DIESEL FWD - Low Roof Van TDCi 85ps 5.11% 99.3% 9104 TRANSIT 260 SWB DIESEL FWD - Low Roof Van TDCi 85ps 3.44% 98.4% 9302 TRANSIT 350 LWB DIESEL RWD - High Roof Van TDCi 115ps 3.25% 96.4% 9551 SPRINTER 313CDI LONG DIESEL - 3.5t High Roof Van 2.20% 98.9% 9301 TRANSIT 350 LWB DIESEL RWD - High Roof Van TDCi 100ps 2.13% 89.5% VIVARO SWB DIESEL - 2.0CDTI [115PS] Van 2.9t 1.83% 92.0% VIVARO LWB DIESEL - 2.0CDTI [115PS] Van 2.9t 1.48% 99.6% VIVARO SWB DIESEL - 2.0CDTI [115PS] Van 2.7t 1.40% 102.1% TRANSPORTER T28 SWB DIESEL TDI 102PS Van 1.39% 99.4% TRAFIC SWB DIESEL - SL27dCi 115 Van 1.33% 100.0% Overall the market prices of panel vans in this sector remained relatively stable resulting in 0% market price increase, however, as always in this sector, there were several notable exceptions FORD TRANSIT (00-06) T260 T280 T300 VAN -4%; FORD TRANSIT (00-06) T330 T350 T350EL VAN +2%; M-B SPRINTER (06-13) 3-SERIES VAN -1%; M-B VITO (03-10) CDi VAN -1.5%; M-B VITO (03-10) DUALINER VAN -1.5%; RENAULT MASTER (03-10) dci VAN -4%; RENAULT MASTER (04-05) RWD VAN -4%; RENAULT MASTER (10- ) dci VAN -4%; TOYOTA HI-ACE (06-12) VAN +5%; VAUXHALL MOVANO (03-10) VAN -3.5%; VAUXHALL VIVARO (01-07) VAN -1.5%; VW CRAFTER (06- ) VAN +1%; VW T5 TRANSPORTER (03-10) VAN +1%; VW T5 TRANSPORTER (10- ) VAN -2%; Sub Sector % Sales % CAP Van 88.56% 99.6% Tipper 3.26% 101.2% Dropside 3.21% 99.5% Chassis 2.90% 115.7% Box 2.07% 106.0% Totals % 100.2% Overall market price movements are Panel Van (0%); Boxes [0%] with the exception of, M-B SPRINTER (06-13) 3-SERIES BOXES LUTONS & CURTAINS which have gone up by +5%; Dropsides [0] with the exception of M-B SPRINTER (06-13) 3-SERIES DROPSIDES -3%; Chassis Cabs [0] with the exception ofm-b SPRINTER (06-13) 3-SERIES CHASSIS which have gone down by -3%.

4 CAPId 4x4 Pick-up Workhorse Sector Share % CAP RANGER DIESEL - Pick Up Double Cab 2.5 TDCi 4WD 6.71% 92.9% HILUX DIESEL - HL2 D/Cab Pick Up 2.5 D-4D 4WD % 102.1% 6094 RANGER DIESEL - Pick Up Double Cab TD 4WD 3.90% 94.7% 8133 DEFENDER 110 LWB DIESEL - Station Wagon Td5 (9 seater) 3.78% 96.0% 3372 DEFENDER 110 LWB DIESEL - Hard Top Td5 3.78% 98.8% 5413 NAVARA DIESEL - Double Cab Pick Up 4WD Di 3.41% 93.1% 3367 DEFENDER 90 SWB DIESEL - Hard Top Td5 2.68% 115.7% 6731 FREELANDER DIESEL - Commercial Td4 2.44% 84.9% L200 LWB LB DIESEL - Double Cab DI-D 4Work 4WD 134Bhp [2010] 2.44% 93.4% 8915 L200 LWB DIESEL - Club Cab DI-D 4Life 4WD 134Bhp 2.44% 102.3% Last month we reported that this sector has performed particularly well over the past month which has led to a general market price increase of +5% across most models This performance was short-lived as we are now seeing a definite downturn in the market with average values down by -3%. Notable exceptions LAND ROVER (98-06) DEFENDER 110 Td5 0%; LAND ROVER (98-06) DEFENDER 130 Td5 0%; LAND ROVER (98-07) DEFENDER 90 Td5 0%; CAPId 4x4 Pick-up Lifestyle SUV Sector Share % CAP L200 LWB LB DIESEL - Double Cab DI-D Barbarian 4WD 176Bhp 7.68% 97.8% 5871 L200 LWB DIESEL - Double Cab TD Warrior 4WD 113Bhp 3.68% 98.4% L200 LWB LB DIESEL - D/Cab DI-D Warrior II 4WD 176Bhp [2010] 3.57% 100.3% 8595 NAVARA DIESEL - Double Cab Pick Up Aventura 2.5dCi 4WD 3.35% 96.4% HILUX DIESEL - Invincible 2010 D/Cab PickUp 3.0 D-4D 4WD % 101.9% L200 LWB LB DIESEL - Double Cab DI-D Barbarian 4WD Auto 176Bhp 3.03% 97.1% NAVARA DIESEL - Double Cab Pick Up Outlaw 2.5dCi 169 4WD 2.81% 99.0% RANGER DIESEL - Pick Up Thunder Double Cab 2.5 TDCi 4WD 2.76% 101.7% NAVARA DIESEL - D/Cab Pick Up Tekna [Connect] 2.5dCi 190 4WD 2.70% 95.2% NAVARA DIESEL - Double Cab Pick Up Aventura 2.5dCi 169 4WD Auto 2.59% 97.5% A downturn in enthusiasm to buy vehicles in this sector was noted during our attendance at auctions last month however the values of the majority of vehicles in this sector remained relatively stable resulting in a 0% market movement in this edition. Notable exceptions were ISUZU RODEO (07-12 ) LIFE -8% this relatively large movement is the result of realigning prices with similar models in this sector since there are very few examples to be seen in the wholesale market. MITSUBISHI L200 (01-02) PET PICK-UP LIFE -2%; MITSUBISHI L200 (01-07) TD/TD 113 LIFE -3%; MITSUBISHI L200 (06- ) DI-D LIFE -2%; MITSUBISHI L200 (98-01) LIFE -2%; NISSAN NAVARA (05-07) LIFE -4%; NISSAN NAVARA (06-10) LIFE -1%; NISSAN NAVARA (10- ) LIFE -2%. Higher specification vehicles and optional extras, particularly Truckman type tops, are proving popular and an easier sell.

5 FAREWELL As an avid fan of the Rolling Stones since they first appeared on the scene in the sixties, I always thought that their offering of Not Fade Away applied to me. The rivers of time in those heady days flowed at a snail s pace; Friday seemed at least a year away as Monday dawned. Slowly but surely the words that parents used to utter about policemen looking young and music that wasn t a patch on our day, began to spill from my lips. The placid eddies on the river become maelstroms and the weeks and years, fly by, until we reach the present. After many happy years at CAP the time has come to hand over the reins to Rob Smith a man with a wealth of knowledge gained from years at the sharp end. I will take a back seat and within a short period of time, I will indeed Fade Away. May I take this opportunity to say to all that subscribe to CAP that it has been a pleasure to have made the acquaintance of those that I have met and it would have been a pleasure, I am sure, to have known those that I haven t! I wish all of you every success in your future endeavours and finally, to quote a line from yet another old song Thanks For The Memories. Barrie Travis AMSOE AMIRTE Red Book Editor - HGVs HGV MARKETPLACE As we head towards spring, hoping that the gloom of winter leaves quickly, we expect the market to get busier. Hope remains high that better times may be ahead as the economy appears to be improving gradually and buyers begin to feel more confident. The anticipated increase in stock, albeit predominantly Tractors should soon appear in the market. This is as a direct result of the recent spike in new vehicle registrations. The recent poor weather and transport difficulties, particularly in the South West have affected auction attendances in some areas. It should be stressed however that auctions in the main have been well attended; with a lot of on-line interest. Conversion rates remain acceptable. Traders are reporting an increase in enquiries which in turn are producing actual sales; there is general agreement however that it is too soon to get over excited, as the export market still remains subdued. 7.5 to 12 tonnes Recently there has been a plentiful supply of vehicles from one source available at auction, predominantly Boxes. Most of these found new homes, although sheer volumes led to downward pressure on values. The performance of Curtains and Platforms remain steady. We have adjusted downward slightly to reflect the diminishing returns seen in the marketplace. 13 to 18 tonnes Research reveals that condition is paramount when high volumes of vehicles appear from a single source. Single entries are not exempt either; this was proved when an older, well presented, Iveco Cargo Dropside with tail lift made the vendor a happy man. Research suggests a trend towards downward pressure which we will continue to monitor. Multi-wheelers This segment remains healthy. Both Tippers and Hook Loaders are selling well. This has been the strongest segment for some time and it appears that it will continue to be so. A 2004 Mercedes-Benz Unimog U400 provoked considerable interest at a recent sale. The subsequent hectic bidding cemented our belief that niche offerings always guarantee excellent results. Tractors High powered high specification vehicles remain strong, particularly 6x2 models. Standard fare Tractor Unit values have been somewhat subdued due to the availability of large numbers of Royal Mail and ex supermarket vehicles entered into auctions. Anything with a late plate has no difficulty finding a new owner but in general this sector has dipped slightly of late. There have been some significant downward movements in this month s guide as a result of a sustained shift in market sentiment.

6 Trailers Trailers continue to hold their own, once again condition is paramount. Fridge trailers have performed better of late but there is insufficient evidence to suggest that this is the start of an upward trend.