DRIVING WITH FEWER EMISSIONS: how can carmakers meet the 2021 targets for CO 2. emissions?

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1 DRIVING WITH FEWER EMISSIONS: how can carmakers meet the 2021 targets for CO 2 emissions?

2 DRIVING CHANGE: HOW CAN CARMAKERS MEET THE 2021 TARGETS FOR CO 2 2 Our new forecast shows many carmakers are struggling to hit the European Union s CO 2 emission targets for How can they make the performance changes required in time to avoid costly penalties? The European automobile industry invests 32 billion into R&D annually 1, a large percentage of which goes towards fuel-efficiency technologies. Much of this spend is driven by the EU s mandatory emission reduction targets for new cars the cornerstone of its strategy to improve the fuel economy of cars sold to European markets. While our research reveals many carmakers are on track to meet the target of a fleet average of 130 grams of CO 2 per kilometre (g/km) by 2015, our latest forecast, as shown in Figure 1, indicates four of the major carmakers Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler and Jaguar Land Rover are unlikely to meet the 2021 targets. Our way of benchmarking, which is unavailable anywhere else in the market, includes the overall EU target of 95g CO 2 /km as well as the specific targets set for each carmakers business. This is based on their fleet portfolio (with super credits received for their share of e-vehicles below 50g CO 2 /km) and their average vehicle weight. Figure 1: How carmakers rank against their competitors for CO 2 emissions. Forecast by PA Consulting Group is based on pre-2014 figures from Transport & Environment, ICCT, JLR Sustainability Report, ACEA and PwC Autofacts On target Close to target Off target Ranking per average CO 2 (g/km) emission 2021: Rank OEM 2021 Prediction 2021 Target 1 Renault Peugeot-Citroen Fiat Toyota Hyundai Nissan Ford General Motors Volkswagen Volvo BMW Daimler Jaguar Land Rover European Automobile Manufacturers Association, Research and innovation, 17 September 2013

3 Analysis of the results DRIVING CHANGE: HOW CAN CARMAKERS MEET THE 2021 TARGETS FOR CO 2 3 As Figure 1 shows, individual CO 2 targets are achievable for a few carmakers such as Renault, Peugeot-Citroen, Fiat, Toyota and Volvo. Renault, for example, will be 3g CO 2 /km ahead of target, while Peugeot-Citroen will achieve 89g CO 2 /km 4g CO 2 /km ahead of target in Some overseas carmakers are close to their specific targets with their European fleets, such as Hyundai, Nissan, Ford and GM, but they may struggle to hit their targets by Carmakers face an ambitious target of 95g CO 2 /km across all new cars sold a 40% reduction compared to the 2007 fleet average of 158.7g CO 2 /km. In fuel consumption, the 2015 target is equivalent to 5.6 litres per 100km (l/100km) of petrol or 4.9 l/100km of diesel, while the 2021 target equates to 4.1 l/100km of petrol or 3.6 l/100km of diesel an imposing challenge. An interesting factor to consider, with the potential to negatively affect CO 2 emissions, is falling gas prices impacting current customer behaviour. Buying preferences have shifted to bigger and heavier vehicles with more powerful engines, rather than hybrid or electric vehicles, making the targets even more challenging for carmakers to meet. Carmakers that miss their 2021 targets risk penalties of 95 from the first gram of CO 2 above the limit, multiplied by the number of cars they sell in For the three German carmakers, this ranges from around 100 million for BMW and Daimler, up to 1 billion for Volkswagen. As a premium carmaker, Jaguar Land Rover is slightly different because of its low sales volume. It currently has 60,000 registered vehicles per year in its European fleet, which will not grow to above 300,000 by 2020 leaving it less affected by the EU legislation. However, in terms of achieving their individual CO 2 target in 2021, they may still face some difficulties.

4 DRIVING CHANGE: HOW CAN CARMAKERS MEET THE 2021 TARGETS FOR CO 2 4 Figure 2: VW, BMW, Daimler and Jaguar Land Rover are struggling to achieve the 2021 CO 2 emission target, all others will get close to the target CO 2 g/km KEY: FORCASTED EMISSIONS 2010 FORECASTED EMISSIONS 2015 FORECASTED EMISSIONS target 2015 target Low Average fleet weights in tonnes High

5 The challenge of test cycles regulation DRIVING CHANGE: HOW CAN CARMAKERS MEET THE 2021 TARGETS FOR CO 2 5 Another complication to carmakers hitting EU targets is the harmonisation of test cycles which the EU intends to use to measure fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions. Information regarding cars CO 2 emissions is currently derived from a test cycle known as the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC) a standardised procedure designed to compare different vehicles under similar conditions. However, it is performed in laboratory conditions, so critics state it does not represent a realistic picture of driver behaviour, fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions. The Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP) test cycle, on the other hand, is designed to represent a more accurate representation of real-world driving higher speed limit (130km/h), harder acceleration and longer test duration. There is currently discussion of it being implemented in 2017 across all regions, adding further pressure to carmakers in Europe increasing CO 2 emissions from current circumstances by 15% to 25% (depending on carmaker s fleet portfolio). If this new regulation on test cycles takes effect in 2017 every carmaker will struggle with CO 2 targets for This is because they are facing a mere one digit percent positive gap against their specific targets. As cars and engines are already developed for market launches until 2020, this would require further effort from carmakers to develop a new generation of engines at an additional cost of up to 300 per engine unit. We therefore suggest the EU implements the WLTP test cycle on a global scale post-2021 after the next generation of engines have been developed and CO 2 targets would have been reviewed.

6 DRIVING CHANGE: HOW CAN CARMAKERS MEET THE 2021 TARGETS FOR CO 2 6 To meet European carbon emissions reduction targets for 2021 and reduce the risk of incurring penalties, carmakers must take action on three fronts investing more than 1,200 per vehicle unit. 1. Optimise engine performance to achieve green compliance Improving the components that generate power and deliver it to the road surface (the drive train ) lowers fuel consumption and therefore helps carmakers make progress on carbon emissions reduction targets. For example, for a Volkswagen Golf or similar, improvements to the drive train have the potential to reduce carbon emissions by up to 60%. Additional measures manufacturers can take to reduce fuel consumption include incorporating a mechanism to automatically disengage the engine when the car is stationary in traffic and using super- or turbo-charged engines to reduce the cylinder capacity required. Innovative technologies that are still evolving, from cylinder deactivation to electro-mechanical valve control, could also improve performance, reduce emissions and support environmental compliance. 2. Cut vehicle weight to meet carbon emissions reduction targets Cars have been becoming heavier for decades. Higher safety standards require rigid car bodies, and features such as air conditioning, power steering and in-car entertainment also add weight. But for every 100kg a vehicle s weight is reduced, fuel consumption falls by 0.25l/km, delivering a reduction in carbon emissions of approximately 6-7g CO 2 /km. Carmakers must use innovative materials such as high-alloy steel, aluminium and carbon fibre in the body shell, chassis and drive train, and in engines, seats and axles to reduce vehicle weight, cut fuel consumption and achieve carbon emissions reduction targets. 3. Reshape the vehicle portfolio to ensure environmental compliance Carmakers can further reduce average carbon emissions from the fleet by reshaping their vehicle portfolios to include a higher proportion of smaller cars and engines, downsizing eight cylinders to six cylinders for instance, or six to four or three. Extending the use of alternative drive trains (hybrid or electric vehicles) in their portfolios will help meet European carbon emissions reduction targets (although the overall carbon balance sheet for electric vehicles remains dependent on the power mix used to charge them). We have worked with a number of manufacturers to help prepare their fleets to meet European carbon emissions reduction targets. Our work for Magna Steyr, for instance, to refine the lithiumion batteries supplied to fleets of commercial vehicles led to reduced carbon emissions and lower battery costs. Meanwhile, our work with a premium carmaker has reduced the weight of its future small vehicles by more than 5%.

7 DRIVING CHANGE: HOW CAN CARMAKERS MEET THE 2021 TARGETS FOR CO 2 7 Our methodology for ranking carmakers CO 2 emissions The following assumptions were made to forecast original equipment manufacturers (OEM) specific CO 2 targets and emissions: Manufacturer specific CO 2 targets depend on the average fleet weight of each OEM. The average fleet weight is forecasted according to a PA assessment on present and previous weight trends, as well as on the capability of OEMs to reduce weight in the future. The expected potential of each OEM to enlarge their product portfolio with smaller and lighter cars is also important here. We expect fleet weight reductions between 0.2% and 1% per year, and, on average, there will be a weight reduction of around 10kg per car per year. OEM specific CO 2 emissions describe a weighted fleet average for each OEM, taking into account super credits for low emission vehicles (less than 50g CO 2 /km). Therefore, assumptions for each OEM were made regarding the development of the CO 2 emissions of different powertrain types, such as internal combustion machines, hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electro and others, eg natural gas. Our assessment expects CO 2 emission reductions per OEM a year at between 0.8% and 2.6%, depending on former reductions and OEM specific capability for reductions. The respective number of registrations of each powertrain type is forecasted on a basis of extrapolation and PA market insights on future focal points of OEMs ie PA expects an average market share of 5% for electric vehicles in 2021.

8 To find out how our experts can help you meet European carbon emissions reduction targets, please contact us now. Tel: We are an employee-owned firm of over 2,500 people, operating globally from offices across North America, Europe, the Nordics, the Gulf and Asia Pacific. We are experts in energy, financial services, life sciences and healthcare, manufacturing, government and public services, defence and security, telecommunications, transport and logistics. Our deep industry knowledge together with skills in management consulting, technology and innovation allows us to challenge conventional thinking and deliver exceptional results with lasting impact Corporate headquarters 123 Buckingham Palace Road London SW1W 9SR United Kingdom Deutschland Eschersheimer Landstraße Frankfurt am Main Maximilianstraße München Tel: paconsulting.com This document has been prepared by PA. The contents of this document do not constitute any form of commitment or recommendation on the part of PA and speak as at the date of their preparation. PA Knowledge Limited All rights reserved. No part of this documentation may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying or otherwise without the written permission of PA Consulting Group.

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