YEARLY STATISTICS & ADEQUACY RETROSPECT 2015 EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM DATA

Transcription

1 YEARLY STATISTICS & ADEQUACY RETROSPECT 2015 EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM DATA European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity

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3 YEARLY STATISTICS & ADEQUACY RETROSPECT 2015 EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM DATA 3

4 CONTENT 1 GENERAL INTRODUCTION Background About the data in YS & AR Differences between data used for transparency, statistics and adequacy reports About ENTSO-E EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ENTSO-E energy and power results Yearly Energy Data per Country in Net Generating Capacity as of 31 December 2015 per country Tie lines ADEQUACY RETROSPECT Methodology Energy balance Power balance Energy balance ENTSO-E Data Summary Energy consumption ENTSO-E overview Energy generation ENTSO-E overview RES generation Fossil fuel generation Nuclear generation Physical energy flows ENTSO-E overview NGC Development ENTSO-E data summary RES power Fossil fuel power Nuclear power

5 3.4 Power balance ENTSO-E data summary Load ENTSO-E overview National peak load Unavailable capacity and reliable available capacity ENTSO-E overview Non-usable capacity Maintenance and overhauls Outages System service reserve Remaining capacity & Remaining margin Basic information ENTSO-E overview National remaining capacity ENTSO-E MEMBERS AND STATISTICAL DATA CORRESPONDENTS Member companies Statistical Data Correspondents...68 GLOSSARY INFORMATION...70 SUPERVISION...70 LIST OF APPENDICES

6 1 GENERAL INTRODUCTION

7 1.1 BACKGROUND The Yearly Statistics and Adequacy Retrospect (YS & AR) 2015 is the fourth edition of the integrated report, which replaced the Statistical Yearbook and the System Adequacy Retrospect reports. The YS & AR report seeks to provide stakeholders in the European electricity market with an overview of the retrospect data and figures regarding the power systems of transmission system operators (TSOs) as well as ENTSO-E as a whole. The report features information on energy balance and power balance at reference points with a focus on adequacy and information on cross-border exchanges and network components. The glossary of terms used in this report is based on a web tool entitled ENTSO-E Metadata Repository (EMR), which contains a complete set of definitions collected by ENTSO-E. In addition, for more information, please visit ENTSO-E Glossary. 1.2 ABOUT THE DATA IN YS & AR 2015 Statistical and adequacy retrospect data is regularly delivered by TSOs Statistical Data Correspondents. The data is stored in the ENTSO-E statistical database, most of which can be accessed directly through web-based queries aspx (except for power balance data) or via reports published on the website, 1) The data collection process for the YS & AR 2015 took place in December 2016 January 2017 and final verification by the Statistical Data Correspondents was performed in March It is expected that most of the data used is consolidated and final. In this edition of the YS & AR report, more detailed information has been made available on generation. Based on the enactment in 2015 of the Transparency legislation (EC. 543 / 2013), more reliable data has become available and for the YS & AR 2015, we have followed up by implementing this data in the report publishing data according to the new fuel structure. Therefore, Statistical Data Correspondents were asked to provide their data based on the new structure as well for the year 2015 and, to allow preparation of two years of comparison, for 2014, as well. 1) For example, all data used in the YS & AR is available as Excel attachments to the report. 7

8 The following table offers a description of the details on data collection: Item Data for year 2015 Data for year 2014 Yearly energy balance per country Excel No. 1 Collected in new structure Collected in new structure Monthly energy balance per country. Excel No. 2 Monthly energy generation data, ENTSO-E Excel No. 1 NGC per country for statistics Excel No. 1 NGC per country for adequacy Excel No. 1 Table 1.1: Details on data collection The update according to old structure was possible The update according to old structure was possible Collected in new structure Collected in new structure No actions for YS & AR 2015 No actions for YS & AR 2015 Collected in new structure The update according to old structure was possible The detailed data referring to 2015 energy generation and net generating capacity (NGC) as of 2015 is directly available in the separate Excel attachment no. 1, operational data. Excepting enlarging of the fuel structure, in the YS & AR 2015 edition, NGC analysis applies to the whole country, not simply to the interconnected system. In former editions of the YS & AR / SAR, this analysis is based on data from the December reference point (3rd Wednesday), which refers to adequacy analysis of interconnected systems. Separate evaluation of NGC permits presenting data that 100 % represents a geographical perimeter, while for adequacy analysis, recalculation of data available to TSO might not be appropriate. Therefore, NGC analysis was moved from the power balance chapter and is available in a new chapter, NGC development this is the NGC state as of the end of the year. The energy generation and NGC data in this report is net data, which means that it does not include auxiliaries. Additionally, energy consumption and load data neither include auxiliaries, and this is on top of pumping. On the other hand, all losses are included (more information about energy and power balance can be found in Chapter 3.1 Methodology ).»» Geographical specifics concerning differences between data referred to at the whole-country level or synchronously interconnected systems only.»» The coverage ratio describes percentage data available for TSO. The part of the data coming from e. g., industry or from auto producers, may not be available for TSO, therefore TSO supplies a coverage ratio that is calculated on the basis of historical relationships between TSO data and data from official national statistics. This refers to the fact that for countries with a coverage ratio other than 100 %, their national sums have been shown as 100 %, which is determined according to the formula: X 100% = 100 %, where: X 100% is the value after recalculation, X is the raw value provided by Statistical Data Correspondents CR is the coverage ratio provided by Statistical Data Correspondents. Before reading the report and analysing the data, stakeholders are kindly asked to inspect the detailed country information in the form of Geographical perimeter and Coverage ratio ( formerly representativity ) described in the document, Specific National Considerations. It is necessary to know what is presented in advance regarding any country specifics and possible differences in the data from this report as well as differences between this report and other statistical reports. Below, you can find a short summary of these two elements: 8

9 Analysis of the gathered data indicated that all countries, except for GB and DE, provided data with a coverage ratio equal to 100 %.»» For GB data, ENTSO-E scaled pure national values based on the provided coverage ratio, so GB data represents 100 % of the defined geographical perimeter. The coverage ratio was presented strictly for informational purposes.»» For DE data, ENTSO-E was asked by the National Data Coordinator not to scale their adequacy data (all powerbalance data). The reason was that the coverage ratio, being an average, will not necessarily hold true for individual time stamps (reference points). Therefore, to avoid any erroneous scaling, raw data was used. Table 1.2 presents the most important assumptions for the gathered data: It is worth noting that with the former SAR reports, the coverage ratio was collected for informational purposes only and data was not recalculated as 100 % of a country / geographical perimeter. Consequently, all comparisons for countries and for the entire ENTSO-E are based on pure, national data. The YS & AR 2015 edition describes ENTSO-E TSOs only. In the 2015 edition, country comments are accessible in the Excel attachment exclusively. Item Geographical perimeter Coverage ratio Energy balance data of which energy generation of which exchanges of which energy consumption Data refers to whole country Data delivered or recalculated to present 100 % of defined geographical perimeter Net Generating Capacity development Power balance elements of which Net Genarating Capacity of which Unavailable Capacity of which Load of which Remaining Capacity Table 1.2 : Important assumptions for the gathered data Data refers to whole country Data may refer to whole country or interconnected system only depending on Statistical Data Correspondent decision. Data delivered / recalculated to present 100 % of defined geographical perimeter Data delivered / recalculated to present 100 % of defined geographical perimeter or not depending on Statistical Data Correspondent decision. 9

10 1.3 DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DATA USED FOR TRANSPARENCY, STATISTICS AND ADEQUACY REPORTS Since January 2015, following the enactment of EU regulation (EC. 543 / 2013), it is mandatory for EU member state s data providers and owners to submit fundamental information related to electricity generation, load, transmission and balancing for publication through the ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. The way the data is collected, assembled and presented on the Transparency Platform follows the rules set forth in the regulation and bidding zone principles. The data used in ENTSO-E statistical and adequacy reports adheres to different rules and is based on a country view. Therefore, differences can occur between the different publications, though ENTSO-E attempts to do its utmost to align definitions, time frames and national considerations when composing the data in all its publications. 10

11 1.4 ABOUT ENTSO-E ENTSO-E, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, represents 43 TSOs from 36 countries across Europe, including 42 members and one observer member. ENTSO-E was established and given legal mandate by the EU s Third Legislative Package for the Internal Energy Market in 2009, which aims at further liberalising the gas and electricity markets in the EU. Beyond our legal mandates, ENTSO-E members share a common vision of a reliable, sustainable and competitive European power market. ENTSO-E is committed to developing the most suitable responses to the challenge of a changing power system while maintaining the security of supply. Innovation, digitalisation, a market-based approach, customer focus, stakeholder focus, security of supply, flexibility and regional cooperation are key to ENTSO-E s agenda. ENTSO-E contributes to the achievement of these objectives mainly through the drafting and implementation of network codes technical EU-wide rules covering system operations, electricity markets and connections to the grid. We also prepare 10-year network development plans (TYNDPs), upon which the list of EU projects of common interest is based; recommendations for the coordination of technical cooperation between TSOs and annual outlooks for summer and winter electricity generation. We coordinate TSOs research & development activities and develop policy proposals based on the European system viewpoint.»» We promote cooperation across European TSOs so as to support the implementation of the EU energy and climate policy;»» We contribute to the integration of more and more renewable energy sources into the energy mix;»» We ensure security of supply and system reliability in an increasingly complex network. 11

12 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

13 In 2015, transparency legislation came into effect and therewith, TSOs are able to collect more data from market participants and distribution system operators (DSOs). From a statistical perspective, this has led to various insights and harmonization issues. In collecting and consolidating data for the YS & AR 2015 document, we encountered various issues with the statistical data collected from the past and these led to some accuracy problems, specifically where we tried to create a closer relationship with the data gathered for transparency, where granularity was, at times, lower. Where possible, we tried to fix these issues by collecting data again for the previous years, but where lack of accuracy appeared, we only chose to publish the data within this document for the years in which we found no accuracy problems. As from national regulators and other governmental organisations, TSOs are frequently seen as the source for data on energy markets and the data is regularly utilised for other important topics within their responsibilities. This underscores that there is a critical necessity to improve legitimacy for TSOs, for ENTSO-E to collect these data from market participants and DSOs and to generate awareness of strong data management principles and reinforce the regulatory and legislative framework. 2.1 ENTSO-E ENERGY AND POWER RESULTS In 2015, electricity consumption in the ENTSO-E power system increased and reached the level of With this, the end of the recession period seemed also to be visible in terms of electricity consumption as for the past three years, consumption decreased year over year. With a relative increase of 1.9 %, the consumption just surpassed the 2013 consumption at 8 TWh. Noticeable in 2015 was that generation and consumption, including the consumption of pumping, was equivalent, therefore the ENTSO-E power system seemed to be self-sustaining. Figure 2.1 portrays the evolution of energy from 2013 to TWh % 1.6 % 1.5 % % % 1.8 % % Generation Consumption Consumption + Pumping Figure 2.1: Energy evolution. Please note that the figure does not start at zero 13

14 TWh TWh Energy Import Energy Export Energy exchanges Figure 2.2 : Import and export evolution Figure 2.3 : Exchange balance evolution On the whole, more exchange took place within the ENTSO-E power system, exhibiting an increased use in TWh of the interconnections. With a growth of approximately 5 % to 2014, this again indicated the importance of interconnection capacity between areas. Import and export was almost balanced, leaving only a modest import of 0.2 TWh. Energy imports increased by 5.9 % as exports rose by 5.2 %. For further details, see Figures 2.2 and 2.3. The NGC continued to slowly rise in 2015 by 1.1 % to GW. Although the total increase of 12 GW was relatively small, it was most likely caused by the rise in renewable generation capacity (predominantly wind and solar), with an elevation of 24 GW and a drop of fossil fuel usage by 10 GW, and this is presented in more detail in Chapter 3.3. As we modified the data collection for the NGC to become more aligned with transparency in this area, we found inconsistencies in the semantical interpretation of the NGC values. Hence, we collected data for 2014 again from our Statistical Data Correspondents; a comparison can be seen in Figure 2.4 between 2015, 2014 and GW % NGC % Figure 2.4 : NGC evolution 14

15 % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Peak 2013 Peak 2014 Peak 2015 Off-peak 2014 Off-peak 2015 Figure 2.5 : RC as a part of NGC evolution The integration of large amounts of renewable energy sources (RES), the completeness of the internal electricity market, as well as new storage technologies, demand-side response and evolving policies, require revised adequacy assessment methodologies. Further, in this edition of the YS & AR, apart from the standard 12 monthy reference points referring to 3rd Wednesday at 11:00 am, two additional reference points were analysed: the power balance at peak and at off-peak load. However, with the development of the energy generation mix, which meant more fluctuating renewables in the system and less conventional fossil fuel generation, critical situations may occur in the future at times other than peak demand. ENTSO-E is therefore working to improve its existing adequacy methodology with a special emphasis on hourly assessment of adequacy, harmonised inputs, system flexibility and interconnected assessments. APG CONTROL ROOM 15

16 2.2 YEARLY ENERGY DATA PER COUNTRY IN 2015 NON RENEWABLE NET GENERATION RENEWABLE NET GENERATION Country SUM NUCLEAR ENERGY NET GENERATION NON-RENEWABLE HYDRO NET GENERATION FOSSIL FUEL ENERGY NET GENERATION NON-RENEWABLE COMPONENT OF WASTE NET GENERATION OTHER NON-RENEWABLE NET GENERATION SUM WIND NET GENERATION SOLAR NET GENERATION BIO NET GENERATION AT BA BE BG CH CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GB GR HR HU IE IS IT LT LU LV ME MK NI NL NO PL PT RO RS SE SI SK ENTSO-E

17 All values are in GWh. Data shown was delivered by Statistical Data Correspondents with coverage ratios that amounted to 100 % and represent 100 % of a country (defined geographical area). The complete table, including subcategories as well as country comments, is also available in the Excel attachment, YS & AR 2015 Table No. 1. GEOTHERMAL NET GENERATION NON-RENEWABLE COMPONENT OF WASTE NET GENERATION HYDRO ENERGY NET GENERATION OTHER RENEWABLE NET GENERATION TOTAL NET GENRATION EXCHANGES of which physical energy imported of which physical energy exported PUMPING ENERGY CONSUMPTION ANNUAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE Country ,3 AT ,7 BA ,2 BE ,4 BG ,0 CH ,3 CY ,3 CZ ,9 DE ,3 DK ,4 EE ,5 ES ,3 FI ,0 FR ,4 GB ,5 GR ,2 HR ,2 HU ,8 IE ,2 IS ,4 IT ,3 LT ,3 LU ,2 LV ,4 ME ,8 MK ,4 NI ,1 NL ,9 NO ,1 PL ,0 PT ,3 RO ,3 RS ,8 SE ,4 SI ,0 SK ENTSO-E 17

18 2.3 NET GENERATING CAPACITY AS OF 31 DECEMBER 2015 PER COUNTRY NON RENEWABLE NET GENERATING CAPACITY (NGC) Country SUM NUCLEAR ENERGY NGC NON-RENEWABLE HYDRO NGC FOSSIL FUEL ENERGY NGC NON-RENEWABLE COMPONENT OF WASTE NET GENERATION OTHER NON-RENEWABLE NGC AT BA BE BG CH CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GB GR HR HU IE IS IT LT LU LV ME MK NI NL NO PL PT RO RS SE SI SK ENTSO-E

19 All values are in MW. Data shown was recalculated based on coverage ratios to represent 100 % of a country (defined geographical area). The complete table, including subcategories as well as country comments and coverage ratios, is also available in the Excel attachment, YS & AR 2015 Table No. 1. RENEWABLE NET GENERATION CAPACITY (NGC) SUM WIND NGC SOLAR NGC BIO NGC GEOTHERMAL NGC RENEWABLE COMPONENT OF WASTE NGC HYDRO ENERGY NGC OTHER RENEWABLE NGC NON-IDENTIFIABLE ENERGY SOURCE NGC TOTAL NGC Country AT BA BE BG CH CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GB GR HR HU IE IS IT LT LU LV ME MK NI NL NO PL PT RO RS SE SI SK ENTSO-E 19

20 2.4 TIE LINES Figure 2.6 is a simplified diagram of the cross-border connections (tie lines) of the ENTSO-E areas as of 31 December This diagram is also available in high resolution format in the download package. AC-lines over 400 kv kv kv kv kv IS Simplified diagram of the cross-frontier transmission lines in the ENTSO-E area as of 31 December 2015 (non-geographic location of lines) DC-lines PT ENTSO-E areas Continental European area (CE) Nordic area Baltic area (synchronously connected to BY and RU) Ireland & Northern Ireland area British area Isolated areas Other areas Other areas synchronous NI with CE 2 2 IE ES GB 2 2 FR 2 NL DK DE NO CH IT BE LU FI SE 2 3 EE 2 2 RU LV LT 5 2 RU BY PL UA CZ UA_W SK AT MD 2 HU SI RO HR BA 12 1 RS BG ME 2 1 MK AL TR GR 1 1 MA DZ TN 1 MT CY Figure 2.6 : ENTSO-E tie lines 20

21 PICTURE COURTESY OF TERNA 21

22 3 ADEQUACY RETROSPECT PICTURE COURTESY OF TRANSNETBW

23 3.1 METHODOLOGY ENERGY BALANCE The energy balance structure is depicted in the following visualization This structure is common for all energy data in the YS & AR report, including attachments 1). Energy import Energy export Gross Generation Pumping Net generation Consumption Losses Generation auxiliaries Figure 3.1: Energy balance 1) All definitions of terms are located in the ENTSO-E glossary via the EMR tool. More information can be found in Chapter POWER BALANCE This subchapter describes the methodology for system adequacy analysis used by ENTSO-E in the adequacy chapter of the YS & AR report The system adequacy of a power system pertains to the ability of a power system to supply the load in all the steady states in which the power system may exist considering standard conditions. System adequacy is analysed here mainly through generation adequacy, whereby the generation adequacy of a power system is an assessment of the ability of the generation to match the consumption of the power system. The subsequent figure portrays the relationships between the quantities used in power balance analysis 2). 2) All definitions of terms are located in the ENTSO-E Glossary via the EMR tool. More information can be found in Chapter

24 System service reserve NGC including additional power. Auxiliaries are excluded. Outages Maintenance & overhauls Non-usable capacity Unavailable Capacity (UC) Remaining Capacity (RC) without exchanges and without pumping Margin Agains Monthly power Peak Load Remaining Margin (RM) RAC Load Import Export Pumping power Figure 3.2 : Power balance The generation adequacy retrospect in the power system is assessed through the remaining capacity (RC) value, which is the part of the remaining available capacity (RAC) left in the power system after the load at a reference point has been covered. When the RC without exchanges is positive, the power system has enough internal generating capacity left to cover its load and has the possibility of exporting energy or using pumps; when it is negative, the power system has to cover its load through imports. Considering the definition of the remaining margin (RM), the generation adequacy retrospect assessment is then extended monthly. When the RM without exchanges is positive, the power system has enough internal generating capacity left to cover its load at any time during the month. When the RM, without exchanges, is negative, the power system may have to rely on imports to cover its monthly peak load. 24

25 Generation adequacy is assessed for each individual country and for the whole ENTSO-E. In the case of negative RC in individual countries, the power balance is still achieved when the RC of the respective regional block or ENTSO-E is positive and the interconnection capacities are sufficient to cope with the necessary exchanges. The power data collected for each country is synchronous at each reference point (date and time the power data is collected for) and can therefore be aggregated. In order to compare the evolution of the results, similar reference points are specified for each month and from one report to another. Times in the studies are expressed in Central European Time (CET = UTC 3) + 1) in winter and Central European Summer Time (CEST = UTC + 2) in summer. A single monthly reference point is defined in the Adequacy Retrospect section the 3rd Wednesday of each month at the 11th hour ( from 10:00 CEST to 11:00 CEST) in summer and (10:00 CET to 11:00 CET) in winter. Data collected for the hour (H) is the average value 4) from the hour, H-1, to the hour, H. As in the previous edition, this year s edition includes data for two additional reference points, which represent the date when ENTSO-E peak load / ENTSO-E off-peak load was the case. These reference points were set based on the date of the ENSO-E peak load / off-peak load calculated from national hourly load data delivered by correspondents for monthly statistics. ENTSO-E peak load in 2015 took place on Thursday, 5 February. ENTSO-E off-peak occurred on Sunday, 16 August. The idea of introducing the ENTSO-E peak-load point was to analyse more stressed moment from a system operations point of view rather than the standard reference points on 3rd Wednesday, 11:00 a.m. Since ENTSO-E does not collect all elements of power balance, there is no possibility of finding ENTSO-E s lowest level of RC, which is expected to be critical in the power balance point of view. So, power balance for the moment of ENTSO-E peak load looks to be optimal taking into account all available data. 3) UTC is the international designation for Coordinated Universal Time. 4) When possible, power data used in the retrospect power balance is based on the hourly average values of the actual metering at every reference point. 25

26 3.2 ENERGY BALANCE ENTSO-E DATA SUMMARY Compared to 2014, both energy consumption and generation increased in 2015 and reached roughly the same values as in Energy exchanged in terms of both imports and exports rose again significantly by 6.0 % and 5.3 %, respectively, demonstrating that cross-border capacity was increasingly being used between areas and therefore showing its worth for the internal energy market. For 2015, the growth of ENTSO-E as a net exporter led to a change to a small importer of energy by just 0.2 % based on the perimeter areas. The generation mix in 2015 has changed again significantly in favour of RES with a growth of 14.8 GW in wind and 6.3 GW for solar energy generation, whereas traditional fossil fuel types decreased by a total of 10 GW, resulting in growth of the total NGC by 14 GW. All pertinent details can be found in Table 3.1. TWh Table 3.1 : ENTSO-E energy balance summary Change 2015 to 2014 Absolute value ( TWh) Percentage (%) Total net generation Renewable net generation Fossil fuels net generation Nuclear net generation Remaining non-renewable net generation Energy exchange Energy imports Energy exports Pumping Consumption (net generation + exchanges pumping)

27 The energy balance in Figure 3.3 portrays the relationship between demand and supply as observed in TWh Pumping Exports Consumption Imports Generation Figure 3.3 : Energy balance in ENERGY CONSUMPTION ENTSO-E OVERVIEW In 2015, the consumption of electricity rose again after a five-year downward trend that begun in 2010 and reached an amount comparable to Versus 2014, the increase in consumption was 1.9 %. Reviewing the country details, 30 out of the 35 countries (85.7 %) had increased their consumption over the last year. Map 3.1 depicts the variations of each country for 2015 compared to During 2015, the average annual temperatures of more than half of the ENTSO-E countries were lower than in 2014 (see Map 3.2). On average, temperatures were reduced by 0.20 C. The temperature peaks ranged between 0.9 C in the Czech Republic to 1.30 C in Iceland. 27

28 < 0 % 0 % < 1 % 1 % < 2 % 2 % < 3 % 3 % Map 3.1: Consumption changes per country in 2015 Data related to the map. Used formula: (Cons 2015 Cons 2014 ) / Cons 2014 AT 3.7 % IS 3.1 % BA 3.3 % IT 2.0 % BE 1.7 % LT 1.3 % BG 2.4 % LU 1.2 % CH 1.1 % LV 2.3 % CY 3.6 % ME 5.0 % CZ 2.4 % MK 5.2 % DE 0.4 % NI 0.8 % DK 1.0 % NL 1.5 % EE 0.9 % NO 2.8 % ES 2.0 % PL 2.0 % FI 1.2 % PT 0.3 % FR 2.4 % RO 2.8 % GB 3.7 % RS 2.9 % GR 2.0 % SE 1.2 % HR 3.8 % SI 3.1 % HU 3.1 % SK 3.8 % IE 3.2 % < 0.5 C 0.5 C < 0 C 0 C < 0.5 C 0.5 C Map 3.2 : Temperature changes per ENTSO-E country in 2015 (PECD weighted) Data related to the map. Used formula: Temp 2015 Temp 2014 AT 0 C IS 1.3 C BA 0.6 C IT 0 C BE 0.6 C LT 0.4 C BG 0.1 C LU 0.5 C CH 0.3 C LV 0.4 C CY 0 C ME 0.3 C CZ 0.9 C MK 0 C DE 0.4 C NI 0.8 C DK 0.8 C NL 0.7 C EE 0.6 C NO 0.7 C ES 0 C PL 0.2 C FI 0.3 C PT 0.1 C FR 0.2 C RO 0.3 C GB 0.6 C RS 0 C GR 0.4 C SE 0.3 C HR 0.3 C SI 0.3 C HU 0.2 C SK 0.2 C IE 0.6 C 28

29 3.2.3 ENERGY GENERATION ENTSO-E OVERVIEW In general, energy generation within the ENTSO-E system has been nearly equal to energy consumption with only 0.2 TWh of imports from perimeter countries necessary. The exchange with non-entso-e neighbouring countries (Albania, Belarus, Morocco, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova) was quite limited compared to the ENTSO-E system. Overall, energy generation in 2015 rose 1.7 % versus Figure 3.4 shows how energy sources changed since TWh Renewable net generation Fossil fuel net generation Nuclear net generation Remaining not-renewable net generation 58 Figure 3.4 : Generation category evolution When looking at generation mixes in 2014 and 2015 (Figures 3.5 and 3.6), the large increase of past (2012 to 2013 by 12 %) renewable generation stagnated, and amounted to 0.7 % in 2015, whereas 2014 still saw growth of 1.9 %. Nuclear generation decreased by 1.1 % and fossil fuel generation slightly increased proportionally by 0.5 %. The share of the remaining capacity category remained nearly stable with a very mild decrease of 0.1 % % 1.8 % 32.4 % Renewable net generation Fossil fuel net generation 25.0 % 1.7 % 33.1 % Renewable net generation Fossil fuel net generation Nuclear net generation Nuclear net generation Remaining non-renewable net generation Remaining non-renewable net generation 39.7 % 40.2 % Figure 3.5 : Generation mix in 2014 Figure 3.6: Generation mix in

30 The overall 1.7 % increase in generation seen in 2015 at the ENTSO-E level was the effect of 22 out of 35 countries experiencing generation rises on average by 4.3 % with a peak in Lithuania of 13.4 %. In 13 out of 35 countries, generation was diminished by an average of 6.7 % with a peak of 18.6 % in Croatia (see Map 3.3). Combining all information, such as the increase of 3.8 % for Croatia, the effects of market prices and usage of cross-border capacity was clearly observable. < 5 % 5 % < 0 % 0 % < 2.5 % 0.5 % < 5 % 5 % Map 3.3 : Generation changes per country for 2015 Data related to the map. Used formula: (Gen 2015 Gen 2014 ) / Gen 2014 AT 0.2 % IS 3.1 % BA 2.1 % IT 1.2 % BE 3.1 % LT 13.4 % BG 4.0 % LU 6.0 % CH 5.1 % LV 6.5 % CY 3.6 % ME 6.0 % CZ 2.5 % MK 0.9 % DE 2.4 % NI 7.9 % DK 9.6 % NL 7.8 % EE 16.7 % NO 1.9 % ES 0.4 % PL 3.8 % FI 1.2 % PT 1.7 % FR 1.2 % RO 1.7 % GB 3.3 % RS 11.8 % GR 0.2 % SE 4.9 % HR 18.6 % SI 14.3 % HU 3.6 % SK 0.7 % IE 9.3 % 30

31 Regarding the share of generation, the four countries with the highest contributions (Germany, France, Great Britain and Italy), with a total share of 51.8 %, accounted for more than half of total ENTSO-E generation in 2015 (Map 3.4). < 1 % 1 % < 3 % 3 % < 5 % 5 % < 15 % 15 % Map 3.4 : Share of each country in total generation in 2015 Data related to the map. Used formula: Gen 2015 / Gen 2015 (ENTSO-E) AT 1.9 % IS 0.5 % BA 0.4 % IT 8.1 % BE 2.0 % LT 0.1 % BG 1.3 % LU 0.1 % CH 2.0 % LV 0.2 % CY 0.1 % ME 0.1 % CZ 2.3 % MK 0.1 % DE 17.8 % NI 0.3 % DK 0.8 % NL 3.1 % EE 0.3 % NO 4.3 % ES 8.0 % PL 4.6 % FI 2.0 % PT 1.4 % FR 16.3 % RO 1.8 % GB 9.6 % RS 1.2 % GR 1.2 % SE 4.7 % HR 0.3 % SI 0.4 % HU 0.8 % SK 0.8 % IE 0.8 % PICTURE COURTESY OF NATIONAL GRID 31

32 Figures 3.7 and 3.8 highlight the share of different fuel types as part of total generation for each country TWh AT BA BE BG CH CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GB GR HR HU IE IS IT LT LU LV ME MK NI NL NO PL PT RO RS SE SI SK Renewable net generation Fossil fuel net generation Nuclear net generation Remaining non-renewable net generation Figure 3.7: Generation mix per country in 2015 (absolute values) 32

33 % AT BA BE BG CH CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GB GR HR HU IE IS IT LT LU LV ME MK NI NL NO PL PT RO RS SE SI SK Renewable net generation Fossil fuel net generation Nuclear net generation Remaining non-renewable net generation Figure 3.8: Generation mix per country in 2015 (percentage values) 33

34 RES GENERATION In this report, RES comprise wind, solar, biomass (including biogas in certain countries), renewable hydro and other renewables, which are sources not mentioned in the subcategories (e. g., geothermal energy or sources not clearly identified). For various countries, RES values were not properly identified. They were occasionally included in the non-identifiable energy sources or the RES share with respect to hydro generation was only partially identified or not identified at all 5). The evolution of RES subcategories over the previous three years and the proportion of individual renewable sources in terms of total ENTSO-E RES generation in 2015 are depicted in Figures 3.9 and 3.10, respectively. TWh Total renewable hydro net generation Total wind net generation Total bio net generation Total solar net generation Remaining renewable net generation Figure 3.9 : Renewable generation evolution per source 8.6 % Total hydro 2.5 % 11.0 % Total wind 49.2 % Total bio Total solar 28.7 % Remaining renewable Figure 3.10 : Renewable generation mix in ) For these countries the RES were considered to be zero. 34

35 Generation based on RES within the ENTSO-E system rose by as much as 4.1 % (see Table 3.2) in All subcategories excepting hydro registered growth, including other (remaining) RES. Increasing rates (above 34 %) of wind and solar generation should be noted. Renewable energy net generation Total wind Total solar Total bio of which Total hydro Remaining renewable % 4.1 % 26.6 % 7.5 % 0.9 % 5.8 % 8.0 % TWh Table 3.2: Changes in renewable generation per source in 2015 Map 3.5 depicts the share of RES based on total generation for each country in < 5 % 5 % < 20 % 20 % < 35 % 35 % < 50 % 50 % Map 3.5 : Share of renewables based on total generation for each ENTSO-E country in 2015 Data related to the map. Used formula: RES 2015 / Gen 2015 AT 70.7 % IS % BA 39.8 % IT 39.0 % BE 20.7 % LT 35.0 % BG 19.6 % LU 12.4 % CH 59.8 % LV 50.9 % CY 5.0 % ME 0.0 % CZ 11.4 % MK 2.4 % DE 30.3 % NI 22.8 % DK 68.7 % NL 10.9 % EE 16.9 % NO 97.6 % ES 34.9 % PL 14.2 % FI 44.8 % PT 48.1 % FR 16.3 % RO 42.2 % GB 20.1 % RS 24.1 % GR 36.0 % SE 63.3 % HR 68.1 % SI 30.8 % HU 11.2 % SK 24.5 % IE 28.3 % 35

36 Map 3.6 portrays the evolution of RES generation as a part of total generation per country. As can be observed, in spite of the overall increase of RES within the ENTSO-E system, 10 (out of 35) countries lowered renewable contributions to generation in 2015 when compared to Increases ranged between 0.2 % (Switzerland / Sweden) and 14.1 % (Serbia) while reductions ranged between 0.2 % (Slovakia) and 21.6 % (Luxembourg). < 5 % 5 % < 0 % 0 % < 5 % 5 % Map 3.6: Renewable generation changes 2014 / 2015 as the part of total generation in 2014 per country Data related to the map. Used formula: (Res 2015 Res 2014 ) / Gen 2014 AT 4,1 % IS 3,1 % BA 0,8 % IT 4,3 % BE 4,0 % LT 4,1 % BG 3,6 % LU 1,7 % CH 1,0 % LV 1,4 % CY 0,9 % ME 0,0 % CZ 0,3 % MK 1,6 % DE 4,3 % NI 4,9 % DK 3,5 % NL 0,4 % EE 1,5 % NO 1,9 % ES 5,3 % PL 1,9 % FI 6,4 % PT 14,7 % FR 0,4 % RO 1,4 % GB 8,5 % RS 2,5 % GR 6,1 % SE 9,8 % HR 20,5 % SI 13,7 % HU 1,6 % SK 0,7 % IE 6,2 % 36

37 FOSSIL FUEL GENERATION As seen in Figure 3.11, the trend of diminished generation from fossil fuels stagnated in On average, production increased in 2015 by 2.8 % (37.1 TWh). Generation from gas rose significantly by 9.7 % and from coal-derived gas by 10.9 %, reversing decreases of these types in earlier years. Hard coal decreased moderately ( 3.9 %), compensated for marginally by lignite that had a small upswing of 1.1 %. For the remaining fossil fuels, it is noticeable that mixed fossil fuels and other fossil fuels were almost equivalent but in opposite directions this could be attributed to there having been extensive discussions on the semantics surrounding fuels. Further details are presented in Table 3.3. TWh Total gas net generation Remaining fossil fuels net generation Hard coal net generation Lignite net generation Total oil net generation Figure 3.11: Fossil fuel generation evolution per source from 2013 to 2015 Fossils fuels energy net generation Brown coal / lignite Hard coal Gas of which Total gas Total oil Remaining fossil Coal-derived gas Oil Oil share Peat Mixed fossil oil Other fossil fuels % 2.8 % 1.1 % 3.9 % 9.7 % 10.9 % 15.7 % 20.8 % 6.0 % 29.3 % 29.2 % TWh Table 3.3 : Changes in fossil fuel generation per source in

38 The proportion of different types of fossil fuel sources for ENTSO-E generation 2015 is depicted in Figure 3.12, where hard coal is highlighted for its exceeding natural gas and being responsible for more than one-third of total generation. The proportion of lignite also rose, following gas closely with only 4.2 % between the two sources. 0.6 % 0.4 % 0.2 % 25.3% 5,0 % 2.4 % 28.7 % 37.3 % Gas Hard coal Brown coal/lignite Coal-derived gas Oil Oil shale Other fossil fuels Peat Figure 3.12 : ENTSO-E fossil fuel generation mix in 2015 Map 3.7 shows the relative importance of fossil fuels in the total generation of each ENTSO-E country in 2015, with values ranging anywhere from 2.4 % to 85.2 % for non-isolated systems. (0.0 % and 95.0 % for IS and CY, respectively, are not taken into account in this range.) < 20 % 20 % < 40 % 40 % < 60 % 60 % < 80 % 80 % Map 3.7 : Share of fossil fuels in the total generation of each country in 2015 Data related to the map. Used formula: Fossil 2015 / Gen 2015 AT 23.1 % IS 0.0 % BA 60.1 % IT 56.8 % BE 38.1 % LT 44.8 % BG 46.5 % LU 30.2 % CH 3.3 % LV 49.1 % CY 95.0 % ME 49.9 % CZ 54.4 % MK 66.9 % DE 53.3 % NI 77.2 % DK 31.3 % NL 85.2 % EE 83.1 % NO 2.4 % ES 42.5 % PL 83.9 % FI 20.3 % PT 49.5 % FR 6.3 % RO 40.5 % GB 59.4 % RS 74.2 % GR 63.9 % SE 2.4 % HR 31.9 % SI 27.8 % HU 34.0 % SK 18.1 % IE 70.7 % 38

39 As seen in Map 3.8, in most ENTSO-E countries (nearly 71 %), generation by fossil fuels was greater overall in 2015 versus ). Data related to the map. Used formula: (Fossil 2015 Fossil 2014 ) / Gen 2014 < 5 % 5 % < 0 % 0 % < 5 % 5 % Map 3.8 : Fossil fuels generation changes 2014 / 2015 as the part of total generation 2014 per country AT 4.2 % IS 0.0 % BA 1.4 % IT 6.3 % BE 3.9 % LT 8.5 % BG 1.7 % LU 21.6 % CH 0.2 % LV 8.0 % CY 2.7 % ME 3.0 % CZ 1.0 % MK 8.5 % DE 1.0 % NI 3.0 % DK 13.1 % NL 8.3 % EE 18.2 % NO 0.0 % ES 6.0 % PL 2.8 % FI 4.7 % PT 12.5 % FR 1.6 % RO 3.2 % GB 7.0 % RS 14.1 % GR 5.7 % SE 0.2 % HR 2.0 % SI 3.5 % HU 1.2 % SK 0.2 % IE 3.0 % NUCLEAR GENERATION ENTSO-E nuclear generation (see Figure 3.13) exhibited a downward trend, being reduced by 2.7 % ( 23 TWh). TWh Figure 3.13: ENTSO-E Nuclear generation evolution 6) To avoid misunderstandings concerning the maps, which feature the percentage increase / decrease in generation (mainly fluctuations in generation in countries where the share of each primary fuel is very small), and to avoid underscoring only large systems on the map with changes in absolute values, these maps show the increase / decrease of generation as a proportion of total generation for each country. 39

40 The importance of nuclear sources as a share of each ENTSO-E country s generation in 2015 is portrayed in Map 3.9. No nuclear power plant < 20 % 20 % < 35 % 35 % < 50 % 50 % Map 3.9 : Share of nuclear in the total generation of each country in 2015 Data related to the map. Used formula: Nucl 2015 / Gen 2015 AT n. a. IS n. a. BA n. a. IT n. a. BE 37.5 % LT n. a. BG 32.8 % LU n. a. CH 33.4 % LV n. a. CY n. a. ME n. a. CZ 32.5 % MK n. a. DE 14.5 % NI n. a. DK n. a. NL 3.9 % EE n. a. NO n. a. ES 20.4 % PL n. a. FI 33.8 % PT n. a. FR 76.2 % RO 17.3 % GB 20.5 % RS n. a. GR n. a. SE 34.3 % HR n. a. SI 38.4 % HU 54.9 % SK 56.0 % IE n. a. 40

41 The changes in nuclear generation from 2014 to 2015 as a proportion of the total generation per country are presented in Map Values oscillated between 11.1 % and %. < 2 % 2 %< 0 % 0 % < 2 % Not available / No nuclear power plant Map 3.10: Nuclear generation changes 2014 / 2015 as the part of total generation 2014 per country Data related to the map. Used formula: (Nucl 2015 Nucl 2014 ) / Gen 2014 AT n. a. IS n. a. BA n. a. IT n. a. BE 11.1 % LT n. a. BG 1.1 % LU n. a. CH 6.1 % LV n. a. CY n. a. ME n. a. CZ 4.1 % MK n. a. DE 0.9 % NI n. a. DK n. a. NL 0.1 % EE n. a. NO n. a. ES 0.0 % PL n. a. FI 0.5 % PT n. a. FR 0.2 % RO 0.1 % GB 1.9 % RS n. a. GR n. a. SE 5.2 % HR n. a. SI 4.3 % HU 0.8 % SK 1.4 % IE n. a PHYSICAL ENERGY FLOWS ENTSO-E OVERVIEW Exchanges are the physical import and export flows at every cross-border line within the power system, and the exchange balance is the difference between physical import and export flows. The import / export of the overall ENTSO-E perimeter is the sum of the import / export of each member ENTSO-E country. Physical flows are metered at the exact border or at a virtual metering point estimated from the actual one. In 2015, exports and imports were 5.2 % and 5.9 %, respectively, higher than in the previous year. The overall exchange balance for ENTSO-E resulted in a net importing system by just 0.2 TWh. Figure 3.14 shows the evolution of exchanges per country during the previous three years. 41

42 TWh 50 AT BA BE BG CH CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GB GR HR HU IE IS IT LT LU LV ME MK NI NL NO PL PT RO RS SE SI SK Export Import Figure 3.14 : Exchange evolution per ENTSO-E country from 2013 to

43 An overview of importing /exporting ENTSO-E countries in 2015 is seen in Map To demonstrate the role of imports / exports in ENTSO-E countries, net exchanges per country as a proportion of their consumption are presented in Figure 3.15 and Figure Exporting country Isolated system Importing country Map 3.11: Net importing / exporting ENTSO-E countries in 2015 BG CZ BA SE FR RO EE NO DE RS CH PL ES LU LT HR MK HU LV BE FI GR DK ME AT IT SK NL NI GB PT IE SI 0 % 5 % 10 % 15 % 20 % 25 % Energy export / generation 0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % 90 % Energy import / consumption Figure 3.15 : Net export as part of generation per country Figure 3.16 : Net import as part of consumption per country 43

44 3.3 NGC DEVELOPMENT ENTSO-E DATA SUMMARY Between January and December, reference points for 2015 NGC rose by 11.8 GW (Table 3.4). Sources 31/12/ /12/2015 Change 2015 to 2014 Absolute value (GW) Percentage (%) Total NGC Renewable power Fossil fuel power Nuclear power Remaining nonrenewable power ) Includes non-identifiable sources Table 3.4: Main NGC category evolution (31 December each year) The main contributors to the power increase in 2015 (absolute values) were Germany with 6.0 GW and Spain with 1.4 GW. In percentages, those with the highest increases relative to the previous year as a proportion of NGC were Croatia (8.5 %) and Greece (4.9 %). The greatest decrease with respect to volume of NGC was seen in France by 1.6 GW (1.2 %) and Lithuania by 0.3 GW (6.5 %). Changes in NGC per category over the last two years are found in Figure 3.17 It is noteworthy that the growth between 2014 and 2015 for RES was by 24 GW. NGC of fossil fuels diminished by 10.5 GW and nuclear power by 1.9 GW. 44

45 GW Renewable power Fossil fuel power Nuclear power Remaining non-renewable power Figure 3.17: NGC category evolution The share of all fuels in the total NGC followed changes in absolute values. Results are visible in Figures 3.17 and % 3.0 % Renewable power Fossil fuel power 11.8 % 3.0 % Renewable power Fossil fuel power 41.0 % Nuclear power 42.8 % Nuclear power Remaining non-renewable power Remaining non-renewable power 43.8 % 42.4 % Figure 3.18 : NGC mix in 2014 Figure 3.19 : NGC mix in RES POWER As expected, the highest increase in NGC within all categories concerning RES amounted to 24.0 GW, which corresponded to 5.6 %. Most renewable subcategories grew excepting remaining, meaning that TSOs were able to identify their renewable sources more accurately. The largest increase in RES were wind and solar, rising respectively 14.8 GW and 6.3 GW. In 2015, however, wind development was more dynamic (11.7 %) than solar (7.0 %). All details of renewable NGC are located in Figure 3.20 and in Table

46 GW /12/ /12/2015 Total hydro power Total wind power Total solar power Total bio power Remaining renewable power 7 Figure 3.20: Renewable NGC generation evolution per source Sources 31/12/ /12/2015 Change 2015 to 2014 Absolute value (GW) Percentage (%) RES power Total wind power Total solar power Total bio power Total hydro power Remaining renewable power Table 3.5: Renewable NGC categories evolution (31 December every year) All countries, except for Lithuania, Slovenia and Slovakia, experienced increases in RES NGC. The leading countries in terms of renewable development (increase in 2015 as a proportion of total national NGC in 2014 were Germany (4.3 %), Great Britain (4.9 %) and Portugal (4.3 %). The greatest absolute increase took place in Germany (8 GW). Looking at the structure of renewable NGC presented in Figures 3.21 and 3.22, despite NGC growth of absolute renewable hydro, its share of total renewable NGC decreased. Nevertheless, renewable hydro was still greatest. The three leading countries for hydro NGC were Norway (31.2 GW), France (25.4 GW) and Italy (20.4 GW). 46

47 20.8 % 5.6 % 1.6 % Total hydro power Total wind power 21.1 % 5.6 % 1.6 % Total hydro power Total wind power 42.3 % Total solar power 40.4 % Total solar power 29.6 % Total bio power Remaining renewable power 31.3 % Total bio power Remaining renewable power Figure 3.21 : Renewable generation NGC mix in 2014 Figure 3.22 : Renewable generation NGC mix in FOSSIL FUEL POWER The main contributor to the aforementioned decrease in fossil fuels was hard coal with 9.3 GW. The single greatest growth with respect to fuel type was gas that experienced growth of 2.3 GW. Figure 3.23 portrays the development of fossil fuels within the space of two years (2014 to 2015), and Table 3.6 presents the data concerning changes. GW Total gas power Hard coal power Lignite power 150 Total oil power Remaining fossil fuel power /12/ /12/ Figure 3.23: Fossil fuel NGC evolution per source Sources 31/12/ /12/2015 Change 2015 to 2014 Absolute value (GW) Percentage (%) Fossil fuel power Lignite power Hard coal power Total gas power Total oil power Remaining fossil fuel power Table 3.6: Fossil fuels NGC categories evolution (31 December every year) 47

48 The decrease in fossil fuel power was seen in most countries, where this had the largest effects on volume in France (3.8 GW), Great Britain (2.5 GW) and the Netherlands (1.3 GW). The greatest proportional decrease was in Iceland by 78.9 % to 11 MW still installed. The highest increases in the NGC of fossil fuels was observed for Greece (0.8 GW). Returning to ENTSO-E data, the present share of each category in terms of total NGC is presented in Figure % Total gas power 2.8 % Lignite power 13.9% Remaining fossil fuel power 47.8 % Hard coal power 23.5 % Total oil power Figure 3.24: Fossil fuel NGC mix in NUCLEAR POWER Nuclear NGC slowly diminished to GW by 1.9 GW compared to Countries with the highest installed capacity within the ENTSO-E system (France, Germany, Great Britain, Sweden and Spain) reported the sum of these changes in their shares. France still had half of all nuclear power within ENTSO-E. The precise data is displayed in Figure % 6.1% 7.2 % 7.8 % 8.7 % 50.7 % FR DE SE GB ES Others Figure 3.25: Share of nuclear NGC per country as a part of total nuclear NGC in ENTSO-E (share higher than 5 %) 48

49 3.4 POWER BALANCE ENTSO-E DATA SUMMARY Unless otherwise stated, all figures and tables in this chapter refer to the reference point of December for the respective year. Table 3.7 features the power balance results for December 2014 s reference point. While NGC was representative of the entire year, though we did not understand how NGC could change so swiftly month to month, unavailable capacity (UC), load and exchanges fluctuated over the year and strongly depended on weather, market and economic conditions at the reference point. Table 3.7 and Figure 3.26 must be treated as examples of power balance valid for December 2014, not as typical structures of power balance. Details concerning results in all reference points are presented in chapters and GW Changes 2015 to 2014 Absolute value ( GW) Percentage (%) NGC 1) UC Non-usable capacity Maintenance and overhauls Outages System service reserve RAC 2) Load RC Exchange Imports Exports Pumping n.a RC incl. exchanges and pumping ) This is NGC used ONLY for building power balance and differs from NGC from paragraph NGC development. It includes additional power in the system 2) Reliable Available Capacity (RAC) Table 3.7: ENTSO-E power balance summary at ENTSO-E peak load reference points from 2013 to

50 GW GW System service reserve Outages System service reserve Outages Maintenance and overhauls Non-usable capacity Maintenance and overhauls Non-usable capacity RAC RC UC Load incl. pumping RAC RC UC Load incl. pumping Figure 3.26: Power balance at 2015 ENTSO-E peak load reference point Figure 3.27 : Power balance at 2015 ENTSO-E off-peak load reference point RTE CONTROL ROOM 50

51 3.4.2 LOAD ENTSO-E OVERVIEW The hourly ENTSO-E peak load in 2015 was registered on February 5th at 19:00 and was 527 GW. The real value was higher because Germany s and Great Britain s load data was not scaled to represent 100 % of the country (at the request of both countries National Data Correspondents, pure national data was used). The difference between ENTSO-E peak load to load at the January reference point (3rd Wednesday, 16th at 11:00) amounted to 21 GW. As usual, minimum load from among reference points that took place in August on the 16th was 240 GW. Figure 3.28 depicts load at the reference points including 2013 and 2014 ENTSO-E peak load, and in Table 3.8, precise data can be found. GW Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Peak 2013 Peak 2014 Peak 2015 Off-peak 2014 Off-peak 2015 Figure 3.28: Load evolution from 2013 to 2015 GW Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Peak Off peak n. a Table 3.8: Load evolution from 2013 to NATIONAL PEAK LOAD Table 3.9 presents all information concerning instantaneous peak load per country, including historical peak loads (this table is also included as an Excel attachment YS & AR 2015 Table No. 1 ). It is necessary to underscore that these values should be higher than (or at least the same as) the values provided for monthly statistics because the average hourly load is collected in the monthly data 7). Differences in date and hour of peak (hourly vs. instantaneous) could be also observed because of specificity of load curves and load measures. All data, except that for Germany and Great Britain, represented 100 % of a country. The coverage ratios can be found in the Excel attachment mentioned earlier. 7) It is worth commenting that hourly peak load is recalculated based on the coverage ratio, while instantaneous peak load is not, so for countries that provided coverage ratios, there may be a difference such that 100 % hourly peak load may be higher than instantaneous load. 51

52 Country Coverage ratio different than 100%? Date Weekday Hour Value [MW] Daily temperature Deviation from normal Relationship between 2015 to 2014 Date Value Relationship between 2015 to historical AT Tuesday 18: n. a. n. a. 0.7 % % BA Thursday 18: n. a. n. a. 4.6 % % BE Thursday 18: % % BG Thursday 18: % % CH Thursday 9: % % CY Tuesday 13: % % CZ Monday 12: % % DE Yes Tuesday 17: % % DK Tuesday 18: % % EE Wednesday 15: n. a. 2.0 % % ES Wednesday 19: n. a. 1.1 % % FI Thursday 8: n. a. 4.1 % % FR Friday 19: n. a. n. a % % GB Yes Monday 17: % % GR Thursday 13: % % HR Wednesday 13: % % HU Wednesday 12: n. a. 5.9 % % IE Monday 17: % % IS Wednesday 14: % % IT Wednesday 15: n. a % % LT Wednesday 17: % % LU Thursday 12: % % LV Thursday 16: % % ME Wednesday 14: % % MK Thursday n.a n. a. n. a. 5.8 % % NI Wednesday 19: % % NL Tuesday 18: % % NO Wednesday 9: % % PL Wednesday 17: % % PT Wednesday 21: % % RO Thursday 19: % % RS Thursday 18: % % SE Monday 17: n. a. n. a % % SI Thursday 12: % % SK Wednesday 17: % % Table 3.9: National instantaneous peak load overview 52

53 In 2015, peak load in different areas of the ENTSO-E system occurred mainly in the winter period (November, December, January and February) and primarily in the afternoon / evening (between 16:00 and 20:30 h). However, a number of exceptions started to take place more often during summer peak loads. In 2015, several countries reported their peak load in summer, such as Cyprus, Greece, Croatia, Hungary, Italy and Montenegro (between 12:45 and 15:00 h). In Sweden and Slovenia, peak load was on 5th of February, which was the ENTSO-E peak load date. Slovenia registered their peak load at 12:00 and Sweden at 18:00 hrs, which were both different from ENTSO-E peak load (19:00). Usually, winter continental countries had their peak load in the evening, while Nordic countries in morning. A shift was also seen with countries registering their peak loads during the early afternoon or in the afternoon. New peak months were present in 2015 February for Iceland and July for Italy. Map 3.12 features the month of peak load for each ENTSO-E country is the time peak load was determined. January February March, November July, August December Map 3.12: Month and time of peak load for ENTSO-E countries in 2015 Data related to the map. Used data: Time of peak load AT 18:00 IS 19:00 BA 18:00 IT 12:00 BE 18:00 LT 10:00 BG 18:00 LU 12:00 CH 09:00 LV 17:00 CY 13:30 ME 20:00 CZ 12:11 MK 18:00 DE 17:30 NI 18:30 DK 18:00 NL 17:30 EE 15:25 NO 09:00 ES 19:56 PL 17:30 FI 08:00 PT 20:30 FR 19:00 RO 18:00 GB 17:29 RS 18:00 GR 13:00 SE 16:00 HR 13:00 SI 11:45 HU 12:45 SK 17:00 IE 17:45 Average peak load of ENTSO-E countries in 2015 was lower than in 2014 by 9.8 %. Although most countries registered a peak load that was lower than in the previous year, Hungary, Iceland and Italy experienced peak load growth. With this, no countries reported a higher peak load than their historical peak load. Map 3.13 presents the height of this historical peak load in comparison with peak loads in As in the year before, the most prominent difference were registered for Lithuania and Latvia as a result of political changes in the late 1980s and early 1990s their historical peak loads took place in

54 < 10 % 10 % < 5 % 5 % < 2 % 2 % < 0 % 0 % Map 3.13: Difference between peak load in 2015 and historical peak loads for ENTSO-E countries Data related to the map. Used formula: (Peak 2015 Peak historic ) / Peak historic AT 2.0 % IS 3.1 % BA 4.6 % IT 6.3 % BE 7.7 % LT 44.6 % BG 14.2 % LU 14.0 % CH 5.5 % LV 37.9 % CY 16.9 % ME 20.7 % CZ 6.8 % MK 12.4 % DE 4.4 % NI 1.1 % DK 10.8 % NL 7.3 % EE 11.5 % NO 6.8 % ES 10.4 % PL 2.7 % FI 9.2 % PT 8.3 % FR 9.6 % RO 17.2 % GB 12.8 % RS 10.1 % GR 5.8 % SE 13.3 % HR 7.6 % SI 1.1 % HU 1.5 % SK 7.3 % IE 7.6 % UNAVAILABLE CAPACITY AND RELIABLE AVAILABLE CAPACITY ENTSO-E OVERVIEW UC, referred to earlier, is the component of NGC not available to power plant operators based on limitations of the power plant output. It consists of non-usable capacity, maintenance and overhauls, outages and system service reserve. Reliable available capacity (RAC) of a power system is the difference between NGC and UC. RAC is the element of NGC that is actually available to cover the load at a reference point. Figure 3.29 shows the NGC distribution between UC and RAC in

55 GW Jan Peak Feb Mar Apr May Jun load Renewable Available Capacity Unavailable Capacity Jul Aug Offpeak Sep Oct Nov Dec Figure 3.29: ENTSO-E RAC and UC overview in 2015 As per what would be expected, RAC was higher in winter months, determined by load structure within the year. Therefore, UC must have been lower during these months, as well. Table 3.9 features UC evolution within the space of 2015 reference points. GW Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Peak Off peak n. a Table 3.10: 2015 ENTSO-E UC evolution The lower levels of UC during winter months was manifest through adequate planning of maintenance and overhauls their levels during winter was two- to three-fold lower compared to non-winter months. On the other hand, the most stable element of UC was system service reserve, required for operation throughout the entire year. Outages were also stable during 2015, contrary to their growth being anticipated because of severe conditions rather than the season. The last element of UC, with the highest share of total UC, is non-usable capacity. It represents reductions of NGC based on different reasons. Foremost among them is the limited availability of the primary energy source (especially in cases of hydro, wind and solar power plants), along with other temporary constraints, like mothballing of units, heat extraction for co-generation in combined heat and power (CHP) and test operation. Weather also features prominently in this context and is generally unpredictable. The structure of UC in 2015 is seen in Figure

56 GW Jan Peak Feb Mar Apr May Jun load Jul Aug Offpeak Sep Oct Nov Dec System Service Reserve Outages Maintenance and Overhauls Non-Usable Capacity Figure 3.30 : UC and its structure overview in 2015 UC as a proportion of NGC between 2013 and 2015 is depicted in Figure The level of UC as a component of NGC in 2015 was much higher over the whole year versus the previous years - the reference point representing ENTSO-E peak load time was only slightly greater than on the 3rd Wednesday of January. % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Peak 2013 Peak 2014 Peak 2015 Off-peak 2014 Off-peak 2015 Figure 3.31 : UC as a part of NGC evolution 56

57 NON-USABLE CAPACITY Non-usable capacity represents the aggregated reductions in NGC stemming from several causes: Unintentional temporary limitations, e. g., the availability of primary energy sources, including wind and solar, fuel management constraints, heat supply or environmental and ambient limitations. Limitations on generation output power because of network constrains are also a component of non-usable capacity. Decisions taken by relevant authorities and power plant operators, e. g., test operation, mothballing of units until a possible re-commissioning or final shutdown. Figure 3.32 compares the monthly evolution of non-usable capacity as a proportion of NGC from 2013 to The share of non-usable capacity at the 2015 reference points was higher than in previous years except for those in November, which indicate that year over year, more and more NGC is not available MAINTENANCE AND OVERHAULS % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Peak 2013 Peak 2014 Peak 2015 Off-peak 2014 Off-peak 2015 Figure 3.32: Non-usable capacity as a part of NGC evolution The maintenance and overhauls subcategory aggregates the scheduled unavailability of NGC for regular inspections and maintenance. As mentioned previously, the level of maintenance and overhauls is determined by load curve during the year. 57

58 % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Peak 2013 Peak 2014 Peak 2015 Off-peak 2014 Off-peak 2015 Figure 3.33: Maintenance & Overhauls as a part of NGC evolution OUTAGES In terms of outages, the forced (i. e., not scheduled) unavailability of NGC is aggregated. It appears the level of outages has been quite stable at the various reference points described herein. % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Peak 2013 Peak 2014 Peak 2015 Off-peak 2014 Off-peak 2015 Figure 3.34: Outages as a part of NGC evolution 58

59 SYSTEM SERVICE RESERVE System service reserve maintains the security of supply according to the operational rules of each TSO. It is necessary for the compensation of real-time imbalances and also for voltage and frequency control. System service reserve consists of frequency containment reserve (FCR), frequency restoration reserves (FRR) and replacement reserve (RR). Figure 3.35 depicts the system service reserve as a proportion of NGC from 2013 to The share of service reserve was significantly lower at all 2015 reference points compared to those for 2013 and % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Peak 2013 Peak 2014 Peak 2015 Off-peak 2014 Off-peak 2015 Figure 3.35: System services reserve as a part of NGC evolution REMAINING CAPACITY & REMAINING MARGIN BASIC INFORMATION As stated earlier, RC is the component of NGC left in the system after the load at the reference point has been covered. The RC of a power system is the difference between RAC and the load. As reference points for the Adequacy Retrospect are the 3rd Wednesdays, 11:00 of every month (except for ENTSO-E peak reference points), to extrapolate the results from a unique reference point to a whole month, the margin against monthly peak load (MaMPL) was introduced. It is calculated as the difference in power between maximum peak load metering over the month and the load at the reference point in that month. For ENTSO-E peak reference points, MaMPL is expected to be the lowest, and for countries where peak load occurred at the same time as that for ENTSO-E, it should amount zero. 59

60 The RM of a power system is the difference between the RC and MaMPL. It is a component of the NGC not used to cover the monthly peak load. On the other hand, a negative RM would suggest a situation that could happen if the monthly peak load occurred at a reference point, meaning that the system would not be balanced based on the lack of RAC (or an excess of UC) ENTSO-E OVERVIEW As expected, RC was the lowest for reference points indicating ENTSO-E peak load. Whole-month results for 2013 to 2015 are presented in Table GW Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Peak n. a Table 3.11: ENTSO-E RC evolution from 2013 to 2015 Offpeak 2015 A general overview of the structure of NGC, as the sum of RC, UC and load, is seen in Figure GW Jan Peak Feb Mar Apr May Jun load Jul Aug Offpeak Sep Oct Nov Dec RC UC Load Figure 3.35: ENTSO-E RC overview in 2015 compared to UC and load Comparing 2013 and 2014 with 2015, RC in 2015 remains at an average of 18,3 % among 12 monthly reference points which is the lowest result since January, July and October show a larger deviation from the average value although they still are higher than during ENTSO-E peak load at when RC as a component of NGC amounted 14.8 % which was the lowest at reference points during 2015 (see Figure 3.36). 60

61 % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Peak 2013 Peak 2014 Peak 2015 Off-peak 2014 Off-peak 2015 Figure 3.36 : RC as a part of NGC evolution Throughout 2015, total ENTSO-E RM was always positive and higher than 105 GW, which corresponds to 10 % of NGC. This indicated that the ENTSO-E system, as such, did not rely on imports of electricity from neighbouring countries (Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, the Republic of Moldova, Turkey and Morocco) and had enough generating capacity to cover its demand at any time throughout the year. These values were generally not very different from what were observed in preceding years. The following table and figures depict these results based on the aggregated values from the different countries. Yet, there were countries that reported a negative RM. More details are presented in the Excel attachment, YS & AR 2015 Table No. 1, sheet, Power. GW Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Peak RC MAMPL RM Table 3.12: ENTSO-E RM overview in 2015 Offpeak 61

62 GW Jan Peak Feb Mar Apr May Jun load Jul Aug Offpeak Sep Oct Nov Dec Remaining Margin Margin Against Monthly Peak Load Figure 3.37 : RM and MAMPL overview 2015 % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Peak 2013 Peak 2014 Peak 2015 Off-peak 2014 Off-peak 2015 Figure 3.38 : RM as a part of NGC evolution 62

63 NATIONAL REMAINING CAPACITY Positive national RC means that at a reference point, a country covered their load on its own and remaining power might be exported, while negative RC means that national RAC was not sufficient to cover load at the reference point and to balance the system, imports were required. In certain situations with negative RC, the difference in energy prices on the market may result in imports being more economically favourable than increases in national generation, thus a component of national NGC is not utilised because of cost and classified as e. g., non-usable capacity (mothballed). In the majority of ENTSO-E countries, RC was positive throughout the whole year (without considering the influence of exchanges). Only four countries, Belgium, Finland, Lithuania and Latvia, reported negative RC at a number of reference points, and this is presented in Map Data related to the map. Months / Reference points with negative RC: BE FI From January to October & December ENTSO-E peak LT From January to May & from July to November & ENTSO-E peak ENTSO-E off-peak From April to August & ENTSO-E peak LV September ENTSO-E off-peak Positive Negative at least at one reference point Map 3.14: Reference points with negative RC in 2015 (without exchanges and pumping) During normal operations, the system is balanced when RC, including exchanges, is positive at every moment. Map 3.15 features RC with exchanges as a component of NGC per country with ENTSO-E peak load reference points and Map 3.16 depicts the results for the May reference points. These points represent reference points with the lowest level of RC (according to ENTSO-E peak load) and the highest RC (in May). 63

64 Data related to the map. Used formula: (RC+exch) ENTSO-E peak / NGC ENTSO-E peak < 5 % 5 % < 10 % 10 % < 20 % 20% < 40 % 40 % Map 3.15: RC with exchanges as a part of NGC in reference point representing ENTSO-E peak load per country AT 26.7 % IS 7.1 % BA 15.4 % IT 14.1 % BE 1.6 % LT 9.2 % BG 14.3 % LU 67.6 % CH 7.9 % LV 14.2 % CY 35.0 % ME 14.1 % CZ 1.5 % MK 30.5 % DE 11.0 % NI 49.6 % DK 65.9 % NL 21.5 % EE 1.2 % NO 12.4 % ES 28.7 % PL 5.3 % FI 8.3 % PT 26.9 % FR 5.3 % RO 15.1 % GB 10.4 % RS 12.2 % GR 29.1 % SE 12.1 % HR 47.9 % SI 22.1 % HU 34.7 % SK 19.2 % IE 31.8 % The ENTSO-E average level of RC with exchanges as a component of NGC on 5 February 2015, 19:00 (ENTSO-E peak load) amounted to 20.9 %, and the highest was for Luxembourg (67.6 %) and the lowest for Czech Republic 1.2 % 8). At the May reference point, the average ENTSO-E level was 36.8 % and at that time, Denmark was the leader (86.1 %), while on the opposite end of the spectrum was France (8.6 %). 8) As mentioned in paragraph 1.2 About the data, there are particular CH data that is an estimation and the result of RC with exchanges may not be confirmed as reliable. 64

65 Data related to the map. Used formula: (RC+exch) ENTSO-E off / NGC ENTSO-E off < 5 % 5 % < 10 % 10 % < 20 % 20 % < 40 % 40 % Map 3.16: RC with exchanges as a part of NGC in reference point representing ENTSO-E off peak per country AT 18.4 % IS 16.1 % BA 50.1 % IT 25.2 % BE 21.6 % LT 8.6 % BG 33.3 % LU 62.2 % CH 49.9 % LV 34.2 % CY 44.3 % ME 40.0 % CZ 9.6 % MK 66.9 % DE 22.1 % NI 62.1 % DK 86.1 % NL 57.5 % EE 32.2 % NO 49.7 % ES 33.6 % PL 29.5 % FI 9.3 % PT 27.3 % FR 13.3 % RO 37.3 % GB 37.6 % RS 30.7 % GR 45.5 % SE 22.0 % HR 79.2 % SI 24.4 % HU 40.6 % SK 24.7 % IE 44.6 % 65

66 4 ENTSO-E MEMBERS AND STATISTICAL DATA CORRESPONDENTS

67 4.1 MEMBER COMPANIES Country Company Abbreviation AL 1) Albania Sistemit të Transmetimit (OST sh.a) OST AT Austria Austrian Power Grid AG APG Vorarlberger Übertragungsnetz GmbH BA Bosnia and Herzegovina Nezavisni operator sustava u Bosni i Hercegovini NOS BiH BE Belgium Elia System Operator SA Elia BG Bulgaria Electroenergien Sistemen Operator EAD ESO CH Switzerland Swissgrid ag Swissgrid CY Cyprus Cyprus Transmission System Operator Cyprus TSO CZ Czech Republic ČEPS a.s. ČEPS DE Germany TransnetBW GmbH TransnetBW TenneT TSO GmbH Amprion GmbH 50Hertz Transmission GmbH VUEN TenneT DE Amprion 50Hertz DK Denmark Energinet.dk Energinet.dk EE Estonia Elering AS Elering AS ES Spain Red Eléctrica de España: S.A. REE FI Finland Fingrid OyJ Fingrid FR France Réseau de Transport d'electricité RTE GB 2) United Kingdom National Grid Electricity Transmission plc National Grid System Operator for Northern Ireland Ltd SONI (NI) 3) Scottish Hydro Electric Transmission plc Scottish Power Transmission plc GR Greece Independent Power Transmission Operator S.A. IPTO HR Croatia HOPS d.o.o. HOPS SHE Transmission SPTransmission HU Hungary MAVIR Magyar Villamosenergia-ipari Átviteli Rendszerirányító Zártkörűen Működő Részvénytársaság MAVIR ZRt. IE Ireland EirGrid plc EirGrid IS Iceland Landsnet hf Landsnet IT Italy Terna - Rete Elettrica Nazionale SpA Terna LT Lithuania Litgrid AB Litgrid LU Luxembourg Creos Luxembourg S.A. Creos Luxembourg LV Latvia AS Augstsprieguma tïkls Augstsprieguma tïkls ME Montenegro Crnogorski elektroprenosni sistem AD Crnogorski elektroprenosni sistem MK FYR of Macedonia Macedonian Transmission System Operator AD MEPSO NL Netherlands TenneT TSO B.V. TenneT NL NO Norway Statnett SF Statnett PL Poland Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne S.A. PSE S.A. PT Portugal Rede Eléctrica Nacional, S.A. REN RO Romania C.N. Transelectrica S.A. Transelectrica RS Serbia Akcionarsko društvo Elektromreža Srbije EMS SE Sweden Svenska Kraftnät SVENSKA KRAFTNÄT SI Slovenia ELES, d.o.o. ELES SK Slovak Republic Slovenská elektrizačná prenosová sústava, a.s. SEPS Observer member TR Turkey TEİAŞ TEİAŞ 1) ENTSO-E member since 30 March ) The country code, NI, represents the data for Northern Ireland. 2) The country code, GB, represents the sum data for England, Scotland and Wales. 67

68 4.2 STATISTICAL DATA CORRESPONDENTS Country Name TSO AT Ernst Reittinger-Hubmer APG BA Merim Džizić NOS BiH BE Janus De Bondt Elia BG Nikolay Chavdarov ESO CH Roland Bissig Swissgrid CY George Christofi Cyprus TSO CZ Zdeněk Fučík ČEPS DE NDC Germany TenneT DE DK Morten Pindstrup Energinet.dk EE Karin Lehtmets Elering AS ES Roberto De La Fuente Pérez REE FI Pentti Saynatjoki Fingrid FR Sabine Giguet RTE GB Rumit Shah National Grid GR Apostolos Anagnostou IPTO HR Slavko Boronjek HOPS HU László Galambos MAVIR ZRt. IE Ciaran Hegarty EirGrid IS Ragnar Stefánsson Landsnet IT Francesco Pietrocola Terna LT Mindaugas Urbonavičius Litgrid LU Daniel Rendulic Creos Luxembourg LV Andrej Eglitis Augstsprieguma tïkls ME Ana Sljukic Crnogorski elektroprenosni sistem MK Izabela Netkova MEPSO NI Ian Stevenson SONI NL Raymond Kok TenneT NL NO Bjørn Grinden Statnett PL Łukasz Jeżyński PSE S.A. PT João Milheiro Batista REN RO Christian Rădoi Transelectrica RS Stanko Vujnović EMS SE Birger Falt SVENSKA KRAFTNÄT SI Klemen Zemljak ELES SK Stanislav Dudášik SEPS 68

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