Conditions for making competition work in the Central European electricity market

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1 Conditions for making competition work in the Central European electricity market Dr. Reinhard HAAS Institute of Power Systems and Energy Economics, Vienna University of Technology 7th European IAEE conference, Bergen, August 2005

2 CONTENT: 1. Introduction: The European electricity sub-markets 2. Unbundling and transmission 3. Excess capacities in generation 4. Mergers in EU Perspektives for price development 6. Open issues 7. Conclusions

3 1. INTRODUCTION Competition: expectations of EC -> very simplified assumptions on strategic behaviour of generators / grid operators! General lack of competition: in generation and supply in every country and sub-market In wholesale markets: strong suspictions regarding exertion of market power in every sub-market

4 EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY SUB-MARKETS UK and Ireland 2. Nordic countries t 3. Iberian market 4. Italy 5. Western Europe 6. Eastern Europe 7. South-Eastern Europe

5 2. UNBUNDLING AND TRANSMISSION UNBUNDLING REQUIRED BECAUSE: to ensure that potential new generators are not discriminated from access to the TM grid and to avoid cross-subsidization of generation by transmission. SUFFICIENT TRANSBOUNDARY TM CAPACITIES: to ensure a larger market

6 MAXIMUM PERCENT USE OF TRANSMISSION CAPACITY SLO - IT ES-PO SK - HU CZ - DE AT IT CH - IT FR - DE FR IT 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% %/ye ar

7 GRID BOTTLENECKS IN EUROPE Average wholesale electricity price 2003 [ /MWh] Bottlenecks Market separation

8 Luxemburg Slowakia Czech Republic Switzerland Netherlands Spain France Austria Germany Belgium Slovenia Portugal Italy Poland N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. TRANSMISSION INVOICES Direct Indirect EUR/MWh

9 Continental Europe: Type of access to transboundary transmission capacities FR DE / DE - FR AT DE / DE AT NL DE DE NL FR IT / IT FR FR BE / BE FR NL BE BE NL FR ES ES PO / PO ES SK HU SL IT CZ AT CZ DE AT IT Type Priority list / Pro-rata /Partly auctions Priority list Auction Auction Pro-rata Priority list / Pro-rata Auction Auction Priority list New method foreseen Auction Auction (short term), Pro-rata (long term) Auction Auction Pro-rata Source: ETSO

10 EXCESS CAPACITIES Central Europe Gross capacity MW Net capacity Load

11 Eastern Europe EASTERN EUROPE: LOAD VS CAPACITY TRENDS Net capacity Gross capacity GW Load

12 Italy 90 ITALY: LOAD VS CAPACITY 80 Gross capacity GW Load Net capacity

13 4. MERGERS IN EU-15 Electricity sector National and Cross-border M&As in the EU National M&As Cross-Border M&As

14 NUMBER OF LARGE GENERATORS IN EU-15 HEW VEW Fortum VEAG EnBW Pow er Gen Iberdrola National Power British Energy Endesa Ele k tr abe l Largest European generators 1999 Fortum Iberdrola National Power British Energy Ende s a Largest European generators 2003 Bayernwerk Elektrabel Vattenfall ENEL PreussenElektra RWE ENEL Vattenfall RWE/VEW E-ON Major mergers and aquisitions EdF EdF/EnBW TWh TWh 17 11!

15 5. PERSPECTIVES FOR PRICE DEVELOPMENT Price, costs (EURO/MWh) Average costs Strategic or monopoly prices? Long term marginal costs? time Short term marginal costs?

16 Wholesale price development 90 Spot market prices (Central Europe) EUR/MWh Feb.99 Aug.99 Mär.00 Okt.00 Apr.01 Nov.01 Mai.02 Dez.02 Jun.03 Jän.04 Aug.04 Feb.05 Sep.05 APX (NL) /MWh EEX Mix /MWh POL-X /MWh Italy

17 Market power? A marginal cost model Marginal cost model spot market base EUR/MWh Jän.99 Apr.99 Jul.99 Okt.99 Jän.00 Apr.00 Jul.00 Okt.00 Jän.01 Apr.01 Jul.01 Okt.01 Jän.02 Apr.02 Jul.02 Okt.02 Jän.03 Apr.03 Jul.03 Okt.03 Jän.04 Apr.04 Jul.04 Okt.04 Spot market price Base EEX EUR/MWh Marginal costs Base Model EWI Köln EUR/MWh Marginal costs Base Model TU Wien EUR/MWh

18 CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT: MODEL BOTTLENECK MW, Preis Generation capacity Start Liberalisation Excess capacities Start construction of new power plants Demand Price time

19 cent/kwh Perspectives for price development Spotmarket Base (Coal price +2%/yr, Natural gas price +5%/a) Short term MC historical Base (c/kwh) Short term MC scenario (c/kwh) Spot-Base historical (c/kwh) Long term MC historical Base (c/kwh) Long term MC scenario (c/kwh) Spot base scenario (c/kwh)

20 8. OPEN ISSUES Balancing: Unfavourable for importers and new participants, Balancing: what are proper area sizes? Luxemburg, German sub-areas, France? How to ensure sufficient TM capacities? How to harmonize regulatory governance? How to deal with further privatisation in the light of increasing concentration and market power?

21 Current attempts to intensify competition are quite different: Italy and France: Intensify auction of virtual capacity Germany: new regtulatory authority installed, to facilitate access to the grid for IPP s and other new players; Spain: White paper suggest divestment of generation capacities Eastern Europe: competition is to be encouraged by transboundary trade

22 9. CONCLUSIONS To bring about effective competition it is necessary to conduct European-wide correct unbundling to avoid market power over the grid to ensure prevailance of excess capacities resp. demand-side measures avoid further mergers and cartelisation, divest capacities, provide incentives for new generators? harmonise (transboundary) conditions for access to the grid;

23 9. CONCLUSIONS Eastern European impact only if TM capacities are extendend Enhance transparency; Privatisation as a crucial issue? Who will buy EdF (in the long run)?

24 FURTHER INFORMATION: Homepage: eeg. tuwien. ac. at tuwien. ac. at

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