BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS. Euro Area (EA) February 2014: Economic Sentiment broadly unchanged in the euro area and the EU

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1 February 2014 BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS 120 Graph 1: Economic sentiment indicator (s.a.) Euro Area (EA) long-term av erage ( ) = 100 European Union (EU) source: European Commission services February 2014: Economic Sentiment broadly unchanged in the euro area and the EU In February the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) remained broadly unchanged, marking a marginal increase of 0.2 points 1 in both the euro area (to 101.2) and the EU (to 105.0). Euro area developments In the euro area, the ESI's marginal increase was due to enhanced confidence in construction and, to a lesser extent, services, retail trade and industry; at the same time, confidence among consumers worsened. Sentiment booked improvements in three out of the five largest euro area economies, i.e. Germany (+0.4), the Netherlands (+0.6) and, especially, Italy (+2.4), while it remained stable in Spain and deteriorated in France (-1.4). Industry confidence registered a small improvement (+0.4), backed by managers' slightly more optimistic assessment of the stocks of finished products and the current level of overall order books; their production expectations were virtually unchanged. Managers' assessments of the past production and the current level of export order books, which are not included in the confidence indicator, marked an improvement. The increase in services confidence (+0.8) resulted from managers' more positive assessment of past demand and the past business situation, while their appraisal of expected demand remained broadly stable. Consumer confidence deteriorated (-1.0) as a result of worsened expectations about savings, unemployment and the future general economic situation. Consumers' views on the future financial situation of their households remained broadly flat. Retail trade confidence booked a moderate improvement (+0.5) driven by managers' more positive evaluation of the present business situation, partially offset by less positive business expectations; managers' appraisal of the volume of stocks remained broadly unchanged. Confidence in the construction sector went up (+1.3), resulting from managers' markedly improved assessment of order books coupled with a downward revision of employment expectations. Financial services confidence (not included in the ESI) decreased by 2.5 points. While the assessment of the past business situation and past demand worsened, demand expectations were assessed more positively. While employment plans were revised upwards in services, they remained virtually unchanged in industry and worsened in retail trade and construction. Selling price expectations rose in services and construction but decreased in retail trade and industry. Also consumers' price expectations were revised downward. EU developments As in the euro area, the headline indicator for the wider EU was broadly unchanged (+0.2). Concerning the two largest non-euro area EU economies, the ESI improved in the UK (+1.0) and remained broadly stable in Poland (+0.3). On a sector basis, services and retail trade marked positive developments while confidence among consumers decreased slightly, consistent with euro area developments. By contrast, confidence in industry and construction booked only marginal changes: these differences can be ascribed to virtually flat industry confidence in both Poland and the UK and a marked decrease in construction confidence in the UK. EU-wide employment plans were more negative than in the euro area in industry; on the other hand, they remained unchanged in retail trade. As for price expectations, the main differences to the euro area were mild downward revisions in retail trade and among consumers. 1 Note: January's industry, services and construction confidence indexes for France were revised upward compared to the figures published in the January press release. This correction implied an increase of a decimal point for both the EU and the euro area ESI (from to and from to 101, respectively). Economic and Financial Affairs

2 Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Graph 2: Industrial confidence indicator 20 Graph 3: Services confidence indicator EA long-term average EA EU EA long-term average EA EU Graph 4: Consumer confidence indicator 10 Graph 5: Retail trade confidence indicator EA long-term average EA EU EA long-term average EA EU Graph 6: Construction confidence indicator Graph 7: Financial services confidence indicator EA EU EA long-term average EA average EA EU Graph 8: Price expectations in the EA 20 Graph 9: Employment and unemployment in the EA Industry Consumers Construction Industry Services Consumers (1) (1) Unemployment expectations (right-hand scale) Balances, % (inverted scale)

3 TABLE 1*: Indicators of confidence and economic sentiment (s.a.) 3 Since 1990 (*) EU 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI Financial services (n) EA 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI Financial services (n) BE 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI BG 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI CZ 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI DK 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI DE 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI EE 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI IE 1. Industry : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 2. Services : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 3. Consumer Retail trade : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 5. Construction : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : = 6. ESI : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : EL 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI ES 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI FR 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI HR 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI

4 TABLE 1* (continued) : Indicators of confidence and economic sentiment (s.a.) 4 IT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI CY 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI LV 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI LT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI LU 1. Industry Services : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 3. Consumer Retail trade : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 5. Construction = 6. ESI HU 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI MT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 5. Construction = 6. ESI NL 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI AT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI PL 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI PT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI RO 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI SI 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI

5 TABLE 1* (continued) : Indicators of confidence and economic sentiment (s.a.) 5 SK 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI FI 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI SE 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI UK 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI In the tables: (s.a.) = seasonally adjusted, (n) = not seasonally adjusted, : = not available. (*) Minimum, maximum and averages are calculated over the period of availability which is not necessarily as from 01/1990. The economic sentiment indicator is composed of the industrial confidence indicator (40%), the service confidence indicator (30%), the consumer confidence indicator (20%), the construction confidence indicator (5%), and the retail trade confidence indicator (5%). Its long term average ( ) equals 100. The reported ESI average is based on this standardisation sample. All confidence indicators are balances. The country weights have been updated in January 2014.

6 TABLE 2: Monthly survey of manufacturing industry (s.a.) 6 INDUSTRIAL EU CONFIDENCE EA INDICATOR (a) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK PRODUCTION EU EXPECTATIONS EA (Question 5) BE BG Component of the CZ industrial confidence DK indicator DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK ORDER BOOKS EU (Question 2) EA BE Component of the BG industrial confidence CZ indicator DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

7 TABLE 2 (continued) : Monthly survey of manufacturing industry (s.a.) 7 STOCKS OF EU FINISHED EA PRODUCTS (b) BE (Question 4) BG CZ Component of the DK industrial confidence DE indicator EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK PRODUCTION EU TREND OBSERVED EA IN RECENT MONTHS BE (Question 1) BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EXPORT EU ORDER BOOKS EA (Question 3) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

8 TABLE 2 (continued) : Monthly survey of manufacturing industry (s.a.) 8 EMPLOYMENT EU EXPECTATIONS EA (Question 7) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK SELLING PRICE EU EXPECTATIONS EA (Question 6) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK (*) Minimum, maximum and averages are calculated over the period of availability which is not necessarily as from 01/1990. (a) The indicator is the arithmetic average of the balances (%) of the questions on production expectations, order-books and stocks (the last with inverted sign). (b) Highest figure is considered as a minimum, lowest figure is considered as a maximum.

9 TABLE 3: Monthly survey of services (s.a.) 9 SERVICES EU CONFIDENCE EA INDICATOR (a) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK ASSESSMENT EU OF BUSINESS EA SITUATION BE OVER THE PAST BG MONTHS CZ (Question 1) DK DE Component of the EE services confidence indicator EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EVOLUTION EU OF DEMAND EA OVER THE PAST BE MONTHS BG (Question 2) CZ DK Component of the DE services confidence EE indicator EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

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