BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS. Euro Area (EA) June 2014: Economic Sentiment decreasing in the euro area, while stable in the EU

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1 June 2014 BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEY RESULTS 120 Graph 1: Economic sentiment indicator (s.a.) Euro Area (EA) long-term av erage ( ) = 100 European Union (EU) source: European Commission services June 2014: Economic Sentiment decreasing in the euro area, while stable in the EU In June the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) decreased in the euro area (by 0.6 points to 102.0), 1 while it remained broadly stable in the EU (-0.1 points at 106.4). Euro area developments The relapse of euro area sentiment to its April level means a continuation of the sideways movement observed in recent months. It resulted from a deterioration in industry, construction and, to a lesser extent, consumer confidence. Retail trade confidence remained broadly unchanged, while services confidence booked a slight improvement. Amongst the largest euro area economies, the ESI eased in Germany (-1.3), France (-1.2) and Italy (-1.0), while it increased in the Netherlands (+0.7) and, more significantly, in Spain (+2.2). Worth highlighting is the 4.6 points rise in Greece, bringing its ESI above the long-term average for the first time since August The weakening industry confidence (-1.2) was caused by managers' more careful views on expected production, the current level of overall order books and, less so, the stocks of finished products. Also the assessments of the level of past production and export order books, which do not enter the calculation of the confidence indicator, worsened. The slight improvement in services confidence (+0.4) was propelled by managers' significantly brighter demand expectations, which more than outweighed a more negative stance on the past business situation and past demand. Consumer confidence slid somewhat (-0.4) owing to more cautious assessments of future unemployment and future savings, which were only partly offset by a moderate improvement in consumers' expected financial situation. The assessment of the future general economic situation remained broadly unchanged. The broadly flat development in retail trade confidence (+0.3) reflects a perceived greater adequacy of the volume of stocks and managers' higher satisfaction with the present business situation, which contrasted with more pessimistic views on the expected business situation. The slipping construction confidence (-1.7) was fuelled by downward revisions in employment expectations. The assessment of the level of order books, by contrast, was broadly unchanged compared to last month. A slight deterioration (-0.7) in financial services confidence (not included in the ESI) halted the sharp upward movement of the previous two months. Less positive appraisals of the past business situation and demand expectations were only partially offset by better assessments of past demand. Employment plans saw a significant downward revision in construction, while they remained broadly unchanged in industry and retail trade and improved in the services sector. Selling price expectations increased in all surveyed business sectors (industry, services, retail trade, construction). By contrast, consumer price expectations, following the pick-up in May, re-embarked on the declining trend observed since the beginning of the year. EU developments The headline indicator for the EU remained broadly stable (-0.1), owing to brightening sentiment in the two largest non-euro area EU economies, the UK (+2.2) and Poland (+1.2). EU services confidence rallied, while, as in the euro area, industry, construction and financial services confidence slipped. Consumer confidence remained virtually unchanged, whereas confidence in retail trade fell, contrasting with the broadly flat euro-area development. Consumers' more cautious unemployment expectations and construction managers' lower employment plans were also observed at EU-level. However, the downward revisions to employment plans in the retail trade and services sectors and the upward revision in industry meant a deviation from the euro area. EU price expectations were in line with those for the euro area. 1 The business confidence indices for France were slightly revised compared to the May press release, causing a downward revision of a decimal point for the euro area ESI (to 102.6). Economic and Financial Affairs

2 Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Balances, % Graph 2: Industrial confidence indicator 20 Graph 3: Services confidence indicator EA long-term av erage EA EU EA long-term av erage EA EU Graph 4: Consumer confidence indicator 10 Graph 5: Retail trade confidence indicator EA long-term av erage EA EU EA long-term av erage EA EU Graph 6: Construction confidence indicator Graph 7: Financial services confidence indicator EA EU EA long-term av erage EA av erage EA EU Graph 8: Price expectations in the EA 20 Graph 9: Employment and unemployment in the EA Industry Consumers Construction Industry -40 Services Consumers (1) (1) Unemployment expectations (right-hand scale) Balances, % (inverted scale)

3 TABLE 1*: Indicators of confidence and economic sentiment (s.a.) 3 Since 1990 (*) EU 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI Financial services (n) EA 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI Financial services (n) BE 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI BG 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI CZ 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI DK 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI DE 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI EE 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI IE 1. Industry : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 2. Services : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 3. Consumer Retail trade : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 5. Construction : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : = 6. ESI : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : EL 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI ES 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI FR 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI HR 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI

4 TABLE 1* (continued) : Indicators of confidence and economic sentiment (s.a.) 4 IT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI CY 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI LV 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI LT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI LU 1. Industry Services : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 3. Consumer Retail trade : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : 5. Construction = 6. ESI HU 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI MT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI NL 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI AT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI PL 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI PT 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI RO 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI SI 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI

5 TABLE 1* (continued) : Indicators of confidence and economic sentiment (s.a.) 5 SK 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI FI 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI SE 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI UK 1. Industry Services Consumer Retail trade Construction = 6. ESI In the tables: (s.a.) = seasonally adjusted, (n) = not seasonally adjusted, : = not available. (*) Minimum, maximum and averages are calculated over the period of availability which is not necessarily as from 01/1990. The economic sentiment indicator is composed of the industrial confidence indicator (40%), the service confidence indicator (30%), the consumer confidence indicator (20%), the construction confidence indicator (5%), and the retail trade confidence indicator (5%). Its long term average ( ) equals 100. The reported ESI average is based on this standardisation sample. All confidence indicators are balances. The country weights have been updated in January 2014.

6 TABLE 2: Monthly survey of manufacturing industry (s.a.) 6 INDUSTRIAL EU CONFIDENCE EA INDICATOR (a) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK PRODUCTION EU EXPECTATIONS EA (Question 5) BE BG Component of the CZ industrial confidence DK indicator DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK ORDER BOOKS EU (Question 2) EA BE Component of the BG industrial confidence CZ indicator DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

7 TABLE 2 (continued) : Monthly survey of manufacturing industry (s.a.) 7 STOCKS OF EU FINISHED EA PRODUCTS (b) BE (Question 4) BG CZ Component of the DK industrial confidence DE indicator EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK PRODUCTION EU TREND OBSERVED EA IN RECENT MONTHS BE (Question 1) BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EXPORT EU ORDER BOOKS EA (Question 3) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

8 TABLE 2 (continued) : Monthly survey of manufacturing industry (s.a.) 8 EMPLOYMENT EU EXPECTATIONS EA (Question 7) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK SELLING PRICE EU EXPECTATIONS EA (Question 6) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK (*) Minimum, maximum and averages are calculated over the period of availability which is not necessarily as from 01/1990. (a) The indicator is the arithmetic average of the balances (%) of the questions on production expectations, order-books and stocks (the last with inverted sign). (b) Highest figure is considered as a minimum, lowest figure is considered as a maximum.

9 TABLE 3: Monthly survey of services (s.a.) 9 SERVICES EU CONFIDENCE EA INDICATOR (a) BE BG CZ DK DE EE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK ASSESSMENT EU OF BUSINESS EA SITUATION BE OVER THE PAST BG MONTHS CZ (Question 1) DK DE Component of the EE services confidence indicator EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EVOLUTION EU OF DEMAND EA OVER THE PAST BE MONTHS BG (Question 2) CZ DK Component of the DE services confidence EE indicator EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

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