The Price is Right. How affordable PV changes everything. Dr Muriel Watt Chair, APVA IT Power (Australia) & UNSW

Transcription

1 The Price is Right How affordable PV changes everything Dr Muriel Watt Chair, APVA IT Power (Australia) & UNSW A2SE Conference Sydney 27 th Feb - 1 st Mar 2013

2 The Technology International & Australian Trends New Challenges

3 PV Why not? From milliwatt to Megawatt scale Stand-alone or built into products, buildings Low visual impact, no noise, low emissions, no movement Grid or off-grid Cost effective But a disruptive technology Needs different deployment & institutional arrangements Technology ready for market but market not always ready for technology Lockwood Eco Home Reid Technology IPENZ 2009 Pickering Lecture Series

4 Module price trends (Bloomberg, 2012)

5 Green, 2012 Wider spectral range, tandem cells, more electrons per photon, lower losses

6 Global PV Market Development 8 GW installed in GW in GW in GW in 2012 Installed capacity now > 100 GW C-Si module production costs ~$0.7/Wp and as low as $0.5/Wp

7 EPIA - Global projections

8 EPIA, 2012

9 PV penetration in Germany (Burger, 2011, Gifford, 2012) 40% of demand on summer weekends

10 AUD/Wp Australian module price trends Current A$ Typical module price Best price Derived from APVA, PV in Australia 1995 to 2012

11 Aud/Wp Australian system price trends Typical module price Typical small grid system price BOS price

12 Cumulative MW Australian PV Uptake with 2012 estimates (APVA, 2013) off-grid domestic grid-connected distributed off-grid non-domestic grid-connected power stations

13 MW Possible annual installations % growth in off-grid and distributed markets post Flagship + 3 X 50 MW systems by No C price post ?

14 Cummulative MW Possible cumulative installations of ~8GW by growth = 34 GW by 2030 AEMO: 12-18GW from residential rooftops by

15 EPIA Projections

16 2011 c / kwh Residential LCOE trends and Grid Parity Projections (APVA, 2011) Typical current price Medium LCOE range Annual Grid Electricity - High Base case NPV Grid Electricity - Low Maximum LCOE range Annual Grid Electricity - Low NPV Grid Electricity - High

17 Commercial Building Market 10% of Australia s GHG emissions 22% of Australia s electricity, increasing to 32% by (ABARE) Source: Lam, 2008

18 Commercial Sector grid parity projections

19 Utility-Scale grid parity (APVA, 2012)

20 Price isn t everything Technology Social Acceptance Successful Deployment Economic Viability Market Access

21 New Challenges Technical Inflexible coal generation base Networks not designed for distributed generation Electrical / mechanical systems need to be upgraded to electronic age, not just for PV Economic With no specific policy support - no guarantee of connection or buy-back rates Threat of moving c/kwh DUOS & TUOS charges to $/day connection fees Threat of forced gross metering with voluntary NEM price buy-back rate Non-transparent connect costs, procedures & timelines for commercial systems NEM & network savings not passed on Price gap remains for larger-scale systems

22 New Challenges cont. Social Customers now have DE options Implications for retail market structures Equity and electricity access issues NIMBY for larger systems? Fights over solar access Have and have nots strata titles, renters Regulatory NEM designed for central generation Little incentive to value distributed energy No inherent right or incentive to export to grid Favours own use & smaller systems Own use now being challenged Storage now of great interest Link to electric vehicle rollout?

23 Need for Distributed Energy Market Separate EE, DSM, PV & other distributed energy options (DE) from NEM Rights and technical standards for connection of DE technologies to the grid Formalisation of the portability of DE services Trading rules and requirements Ancillary service requirements and rewards Appropriate DUOS charges The role and regulation of new energy service providers Pass through of energy and network cost reductions due to DE to the owners or customers generally

24 Key Questions Is PV unstoppable or will the market crash when subsidies stop? Will customers drop off the grid if utilities make it too hard for PV? How do we design a new regulatory framework?

25 References APVA, 2011, Residential sector modelling of PV and electricity prices, report for the ASI APVA, 2012, Modelling of Large-Scale PV systems and electricity prices, report for the CEC APVA, , PV Power Applications in Australia. National Survey Reports. Bloomberg New Energy Finance. (2012, April 5). BNEF University - Breakthroughs in Solar Power Burger, B., 2011, Fraunhofer ISE, EEX Transparency Platform, European PV Industries Association (EPIA), 2012, Global Market Outlook for PV until 2016, May Gifford, J, 2012, Germany: Record 40% solar weekend, PV Magazine, 29 May Green, M., 2012, The 2012 Semi Roadmap for PV Bigger, Thinner, Faster, Cheaper, SPREE Seminar, UNSW, May Lam, T., 2008, PV Power System Uptake in the Commercial Building Sector, Final Year Thesis, School of PV & RE Engineering, UNSW. SEMI PV Group, 2012, International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics.