Link the Value for you. Exhibition News: 2018 Tokyo PV EXPO. 16 th March PV InfoLink. All rights reserved

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1 Exhibition News: 2018 Tokyo PV EXPO

2 Background Demand & Policy Due to the gradual situation of the utility-scale market in Japan and the changes of policies, the amount of installation slowly lowered in Japan. Overall, in order to reduce the PV generation cost, the Japanese government is adjusting the feed-in tariffs (FiT) and adopting bidding mechanism for utility-scale systems. The Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) plans to achieve an installation target of 64GW by Compared to the cumulative installation of 45GW in 2017, the average installation only has to reach 1.5GW before If things do go as planned, the PV market in Japan will shrink like the German PV market. But according to the development of the Japanese roof-top systems and the release of utility-scale project bids, it s almost certain that Japan can surpass an installation of 64GW 1 before The bidding result for the first bid held in November 2017 didn t go as smoothly as expected: only 140MW out of a total of 500MW won the bid and only 41MW was paid a deposit. There will be another two bids in May and November 2018, respectively. METI will revise the bidding solution, hoping to make the project progress more smoothly. Most importantly, they hope to reduce the PV generation cost in Japan to the international standard. For subsidies, new FiT is applied to the new fiscal year starting from April The FiT for systems (>10kW & <2MW) dropped to JPY 18/kWh and that for residential systems also declined to JPY 24/kWh. Utility-scale systems with scales larger than 2MW go by auctions. The average FiT for the previous round of bid reached JPY 20/kWh, higher than the new FiT. Following the higher electricity prices in Japan, when comparing the FiT price with self-consumption, the cost of self-consumption is even lower, meaning that most regions in Japan have achieved the grid parity.

3 The module shipment declined year by year in Japan. According to the data of the Japan PV Energy Association (JPEA), Japan s module shipment declined from 6.6GW in 2016 to 6.26GW in But judging from the Chinese customs data, China s module shipment to Japan simply reached 4.8GW in Most of the exporting products were conventional multi-si modules. 2

4 Product Trend With the full score standard 310W for mono-si and 295W for multi-si requested by the Top Runner Program, companies intentions to challenge the full score standard is completely revealed at the Tokyo PV EXPO 2018, which has always been a product indicator for the whole year. Efficiency Threshold 2017 Top Runner Program Project Type Module Efficiency Responding Module Power Output* Cell Efficiency* General Top Runner Program (in the lowest standard) General Top Runner Program (the highest full score) Super Top Runner Program (in the lowest standard) Multi-Si Module 17.00% More than 280W More than 19.50% Mono-Si Module 17.80% More than 295W More than 20.80% Multi-Si Module 17.90% More than 295W More than 20.00% Mono-Si Module 18.70% More than 310W More than 21.50% 3 Multi-Si Module 18.00% More than 295W More than 20.00% Mono-Si Module 18.90% More than 310W More than 21.50% Super Top Runner Program (the highest full score) Multi-Si Module 19.40% More than 320W More than 21.05% Mono-Si Module 20.40% More than 335W More than 23.00% *Module power output is based on 60-cell modules area of 1650*992mm *Cell Efficiency is based on calculation. P-type The P-type products showcased in this year s PV EXPO are similar to the technologies revealed at the SNEC last year. Chinese companies mostly use mono & multi-si PERC with the half-cut or multi-busbar technologies as the basic equipment showcased at the exhibition. Quite a few manufacturers revealed the overlapped technology. What s different from last year is that thanks to the breakthrough of the efficiency for mono and multi-si PERC cells, the wattage this year increased 5-10W from last year s SNEC. The output of 60-cell multi-si modules reached 300W as well. Half-cut module shipment are continue to increase this year, CSI and Risen are the biggest 2 Chinese supplier recently.

5 Manufacturer Mono-Si PERC Multi-Si PERC Conventional Monoi-Si Conventional Multi-Si JA Solar 310W 300W Notes CSI 385W 365W Bifacial pc+9BB HQCL W BB Risen W -- 72pc GCL-Si W Suntech 325W 305W W -- CECEP W Unique PVB technology BYD W 72pc+12BB DMM Source: Collected by PV InfoLink Exhibition highlight Half-Cut Modules (60pcs) N-type Bifacial 360W JA Solar 4

6 CSI 5

7 Risen 6 DMM

8 MBB Exhibition highlight MBB Modules Manufacturer Number of Multi- Busbar Type of Cell Wattage Note HQCL 6BB Mono-Si PERC 305W CSI 9BB+Half-cut Mono-Si PERC 385W 72pc GCL-Si 12BB Multi-Si PERC +black-silicon 305W Longi 12BB Mono-Si PERC 315W Talesun 12BB Multi-Si 285W 12BB Mono-Si PERC 365W 72pc Yingli 12BB Multi-Si 285W Capacity Announced 270MW Znshine 12BB Multi-Si 290W 12BB Mono-Si PERC 310W Jolywood 12BB N-type PERT BYD 12BB+Half-cut Multi-Si 340W DMM 12BB N-type PERT Source: Collected by PV InfoLink bi-facial 350W 7 Hanwha Q-Cells launched Q.PEAK DUO-G5 modules with the half-cut cell technology and 6 busbar design as well as Hanwha Q-Cells Q.ANTUM DUO technology. At the exhibition, Lerri officially announced that the efficiency has reached 23.6% for mono-si PERC cells, which was tested and certified by the National Center of Supervision and Inspection on Solar Photovoltaic Product Quality (CPVT). This allowed Lerri Solar to become a record holder in the world again.

9 CSI 8

10 GCL-Si 9

11 Talesun Znshine 10

12 Overlap Aside from SunPower and Seraphim that have worked on the overlapped technology development for a while, what s different from the previous years is that Japanese and Korean module makers also paid attention to overlapped modules and are planning to build their own overlapped module capacities, including Shinsung and Japan Solar. CSI 260W (1638*826mm, conversion efficiency of 19.22%) GCL-Si 335W Seraphim mono-si PERC 335W / HJT 360W Suntech mono-si PERC 330W SunPower P19 Series 390W (2067*998mm) Shinsung mono-si PERC 350W 19.4% Japan Solar mono-si PERC 315W multi-si 295W 11 SunPower

13 Shinsung 12

14 Seraphim 13 Others Phono MWT+ mono-si PERC = 310W

15 N-type There were some adjustment to the high-efficiency with N-type technology this year, but the half-cut and overlapped technologies may damage the structure of the HJT during the cell cutting process. Consequently, no HJT products with the half-cut technology were showcased at the exhibition (but Seraphim s products did go with the overlapped technology). This will also be an issue that HJT manufacturers will immediately face and need to overcome. Manufacturer Type of Technology Exhibited Product Panasonic HJT With anti-glare glass Sharp IBC City Charge SunPower IBC 21 & 22 Series Jolywood Yingli IBC 340W TopCon Cell -- PERT Panada bi-facial 380W Jinergy HJT 330W NSP HJT Exhibition Highlight N-Type Module With Meyer Burger s SWCT technology *LG and Kaneka didn t participate in the exhibition this year *Source: Collected by PV InfoLink Exhibited Product The anti-glare technology can prevent the module glare caused by resident s rooftop systems to affect surrounding neighbors. But the surface treatment of the anti-glare technology will lead to an efficiency decline of 5%. Removable settings allow the product to become a charging device at tourist sites, an advertising sign for ceremonies and restaurants, and a light indicator when disaster happens. Module conversion efficiency reached 21.5% (1599*1046 reached 360W) The SWCT technology can save the amount of silver paste used. The lowtemperature silver paste used with HJT is expensive. If it goes with the SWCT during the mass production process, the manufacturing cost per watt can be reduced. 14

16 Sharp Jolywood 15

17 16

18 NSP 17

19 Conclusion To conclude all of the above, after the bi-facial and half-cut technologies were showcased at major exhibitions last year, manufacturers are expecting to expand the bi-facial and half-cut capacities in Q2, leading to much higher growth in shipment in 2H18. As for the multi-busbar technology, due to the yield rate control issues, manufacturers won t start to increase multi-busbar productions until Q4. Although the overlapped technology is still a niche market for high-efficiency products and it s more difficult to control, more Japanese and Korean makers have continuously joined the competition. It s expected that all other PV exhibitions this year will be like the PV EXPO 2018, putting the half-cut and bi-facial modules as standard products and MBB/overlapped as advanced products. As for the N-type technology, the growth of HJT capacity is likely to be more apparent. Meanwhile, the SWCT technology is worth paying attention to. 18 If you have any question, please contact service@pvinfolink.com