Commercial Solar the next big wave in the PV industry? SPREE Seminar, UNSW Thursday 1st May 2014

Transcription

1 Commercial Solar the next big wave in the PV industry? SPREE Seminar, UNSW Thursday 1st May 2014 SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 1

2 The questions that will be answered i. Who is epho Pty Ltd? ii. What has happened in solar over that last few years? iii. Where will it go to over the next few years? iv. Does commercial solar make sense? v. Why is it taking off so slowly? vi. Do I get what was promised? vii. Summary SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 2

3 Who is epho? epho Pty Ltd is about Credibility e - is the symbol for electron epho develops, engineers, procures, constructs, commissions, operates and maintains commercial solar systems. epho cuts electricity costs epho connects companies to the sun epho has the team with decades of experience SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 3

4 What is solar energy (photovoltaics)? Electricity from Photons SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 4

5 Australia s PV market Source: Australian PV Institute, Market Analysis and then it grew SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 5

6 Welcome to Australia s solar-coaster Source: Australian PV Institute, Market Analysis And it is never boring SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 6

7 no of system and kw installed Average system size [kw/system] The country of small systems 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, month - No of Systems kw installed kw/system Sample months show the continuous increase of system size but remains dominated by residential systems. SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 7

8 Segment Forecast Source: Australian PV, Market Forecast (Solar Business Services) SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 8

9 Latest Forecast Source: Green Energy Markets (2014) published by Tristan Edis in Climate Spectator Why residential solar dominates, 4 Apr.2014 Commercial is growing, but slower than it should do. SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 9

10 Commercial solar trend Source: Commercial PV market (Source: Sunwiz, Aug. 2013) The trend for commercial solar is up-wards, but not a hockey-stick SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 10

11 The Business Case for Commercial Solar Solar fundamentally makes sense for commercial users SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 11

12 A balance between three factors 1. Your roof space 2. Your power usage The blue area indicates where the syste would be installed. It does not indicate the size of the system. A detailed modu layout plan would be made available if the system is to be installed. 3. Your timeline SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 12

13 Roof - James Sheahan Catholic High School in Orange -an example Iterations to design the best systems Final module layout plan Layout needs to take into consideration structural suitability of roof, safety etc. According to State Environmental Planning Policy (Infrastructure) 2007: Complying Development Certificate is required SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 13

14 Power Usage Understanding the power bill From simple to not so simple SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 14

15 Power consumption [kw] Power Usage Analysing the solar benefit PV output [kw] Power consumption [kw] PV output [kw] a weekday a weekend :00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Consumption before PV Consumption after PV PV Output Graph 1: Simulated day: 06/02/2013 Power off-set Solar power Power off-set Energy fed into grid 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Consumption before PV Consumption after PV PV Output Graph 2: Simulated day: 16/02/2013 Solar power Example shows a High School in Orange. The electricity consumption will be reduced by an estimated 30%. SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 15

16 cumulative savings ($) Timeline for the payback period Cumulative Net Savings Cumulative Cash Flow w/o financing 800, , , , , , , ,000 - (100,000) (200,000) year Typical straight-line payback periods are between 4 and 7 years SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 16

17 Options to deploy commercial solar 1. Investment 2. Leasing 3. Power Purchase Driver: ROI Driver: Cash Flow Driver: No Risk Benefits: Secure attractive return on investment System ownership Depreciation Simple Drawbacks: Immediate capital expenditure Responsibility for system performance Benefits: No initial capital investment Simple fixed monthly leasing rates for a fixed term Drawbacks: Leasing payment not linked to system performance Potentially higher financing costs Benefits: No ownership required Pure purchase of kwh No performance risk Drawbacks: No return on investment No free electricity until purchase of PV system. More complex SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 17

18 PV can be highly reliable Engineering Components Installation System yield SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 18

19 SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 19

20 Engineering for commercial systems The blue area indicates where the system would be installed. It does not indicate the size of the system. A detailed module layout plan would be made available if the system is to be installed. Detailed module layout Detailed shading analysis Full single line diagram Full loss analysis SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 20

21 Installation it is in the details The system is supposed to reliably produce electricity for at least 25 years. Everything needs to be done with care. VS SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 21

22 How often do you monitor your solar system? SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 22

23 Global horzontal irradiation [kwh/m 2 /year] Solar Irradiance in Sydney % % Source: Bureau of Meteorology SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 23

24 Monitoring of sunny and rainy days SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 24

25 Irradiance in Module plane [kwh/m2] Specific Energy Yield [kwh/kwp] System forecasting Sunshine (irradiance) Actually generated Roof top installation of a 154 kwp Q CELLS solar system for Xstrata Copper at Mt Isa Irradiation 1400 What the system should generate Forecasted Electricity Simulated Electricity 1200 Measured Electricity 1000 Longterm average Site Measurement 2011 Site Measurement 2012 SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 25

26 Summary Commercial solar makes a lot of sense. Commercial solar can be cash flow positive from day one. It needs to be done right. It is highly predictable and reliable. My guess it will become the largest segment of the solar market in Australia. SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 26

27 Contact details Oliver Hartley epho Pty Ltd Tel (02) Web: SPREE Seminar, UNSW 1 May 2014, page 27