Growing Number of Net Importers of Oils & Fats

Transcription

1 Growing Number of Net Importers of Oils & Fats Desmond Ng and Azriyah Azian Malaysian Palm Oil Council 1.0 Introduction Being one of the basic nutrients required to supply energy for human growth and daily need to conduct activities, demand of oils & fats has been growing leaps and bounds with the population growth in the world. Besides that, the growing affluence in many countries further lifted the demand for this daily necessity either through direct or indirect applications. According to Oil World, oils & fats consumption (excluding indirect source available in meat, vegetable etc) grew at a compounded annual growth rate of 4.3% in the past 10 years, which lead to a need of million MT of oils & fats in This year, the consumption level for oils & fats is forecasted to grow up to million MT, which means an additional 6.28 million MT of oils & fats is required to feed the world population! This will bring the per capita consumption of oils & fats up to 25.5 kg in Chart 1 Global Oils & Fats Consumption While increase in oils & fats consumption could partly reflect the economic condition of certain countries, majority of these countries are unable to produce enough for their own use. Furthermore, due to the limited land available and also growing needs for other agriculture products, more and more countries will have to rely on importation to satisfy their internal needs. Hence, this has led to an increased reliance on the major oils & fats producing countries who are net exporters to help those countries in 1

2 ensuring the sustainable supply of oils & fats to their people. As of 2010, a total of 10 countries have been identified as net exporters of oils & fats. Malaysia, Indonesia and Argentina are the leading net exporters, followed by other smaller net exporting nations trailing in exporting oils & fats. However, as competition for land for various agricultural crops and urbanisation intensify, land is getting scarce and some of these net exporters may succumb to rely on importation to satisfy the need of this basic nutrient in near future. This is where the role of net exporting countries is crucial in ensuring the continuous supply of oils and fats to the global oils and fats market. This paper is aimed at assessing the position and development of oils & fats scenario among the small net exporters and studies the possibility of these countries of becoming a net importer in the near future. 2.0 Review of Net Exporting Countries As of 2010, there are 10 countries which qualified as net exporters as seen in Table 1. Net exporter is defined as a country where the export volume of oils & fats is higher than the imported volume. Among these countries, Malaysia and Indonesia where palm oil is mainly produced play a significant role in ensuring the supply of oils and fats to the 150 odd countries globally. The third major exporter is Argentina where soybean oil and sunflower oil are mainly exported from. This clearly showed the importance of these countries, and especially palm oil in satisfying the needs for oils & fats to the net importing countries. Chart 2 Net Importers versus Net Exporters of Oils & Fats and MPOC 2

3 Table 1 - List of Net Exporting Countries (2010) Net Exporting Country Net Export of Oils & Fats ( 000 MT) Indonesia 18,656 Malaysia 16,025 Argentina 5,699 Ukraine 2,482 Canada 1,890 Brazil 1,167 Philippines 1,084 USA 535 Australia 213 Thailand 116 and MPOC estimates However, as some of these countries continue to witness growth in oils & fats consumption, their production may not be able to keep pace with demand and this will see a switch as some of the net exporters will inevitably become net importers. One such example recently is Columbia. Subsequently, a need for more oil to be produced from highly efficient oil crops such as oil palm is imminent to satisfy more requirements for importation and this fact should be recognised by all especially the environmental NGOs on the contribution that palm oil could make to mankind. There are also signs that some of these net exporting countries are slowly losing out on the their ability to satisfy the need of oils & fats beyond their shore and among the most significant ones are Thailand and Philippines with Brazil, Argentina, USA also witnessing such trend taking place. Chart 3 Net Exporting Countries and Volume ( 000 MT) & MPOC 3

4 This paper will dwell on both Thailand and the Philippines which are the two countries that have shown trends of becoming a net importing country in years to come. The paper also assesses whether Russia that has once become a net exporting country in 2009 (but became net importing country last year) will remain as net importing country for many years to come. 2.1 Thailand Thailand, the third biggest crude palm oil (CPO) producer in the world since the mid-90s has witnessed a growth rate of almost 10% in CPO production, mainly in the southern region of the country. In the last five years, Thailand s CPO production expanded at the rate of 16.2% a year, which also increased the availability of the total oils and fats in the country. Chart 4: Thailand Production of Oils & Fats Prior to 2007, the production of oils and fats (primarily CPO) had been increasing to cater to the growing population, as well as the expanding Thai economy. The moderate economic growth in the country for the period , averaged at 5% in terms of GDP, saw the demand for oils and fats growing in tandem, at 5.1% per annum. It was during this period too that Thailand slowly became a net exporter of oils and fats, with the export of palm oil improving its trade balance. The higher export of palm oil in crude form was largely due to logistics: the refineries were mainly located in Bangkok and sending CPO to the capital city for processing was not competitive in comparison to the soybean oil crushed and refined in the capital. It was therefore more viable to export the CPO directly out of the southern region. 4

5 Chart 5 - Export of Oils & Fats in Thailand ( ) Nevertheless, as energy prices primarily that of petrol and diesel increased substantially from 2004, Thailand, being a net importing country of petroleum products, embarked on the application of biofuel. The National Alternative Energy Development Plan was drawn up, with a biofuel policy and programmes built on this plan. The country then came out with the 2 nd Alternative Energy Development Plan to intensify the efforts of putting biofuel to use in order to reduce the reliance on imported fuel. In 2005, Thailand began a campaign to promote biodiesel production and use. Initial production of biodiesel was insignificant until February 2008, when the government adopted a policy requiring mandatory 2% blending. This mandate came with tax incentives for biodiesel producers in the form of waivers of import duties on machinery and accessories, and corporate income tax as well, for eight years. In order to encourage greater usage of biodiesel in the country, the policy was further extended to provide tax breaks for the use of B5 biodiesel (on a voluntary basis), which resulted in the retail price of B5 being lower than that of B2. These incentives resulted in the setting up of 14 biodiesel plants, with a total capacity of 5.96 million litres a day, from 2005 to Table 2 lists the biodiesel plants in Thailand and their capacities. 5

6 Table 2 Thailand: List of Biodiesel Plants and Capacities Plant Location Production Capacity (Litres/day) 1. Bangchak Petroleum Bangkok 50, Bioenergy Plus Ayudhaya 100, Absolute Energy Prachinburi 800, Patum Vegetable Oil Patumthani 1,400, Bangkok Alternative Energy Chachoengsao 200, Green Power Corporation Chumporn 200, A.I. Energy Samutsakorn 250, Weerasuwan Samutsakorn 200, Thai Oleo Chemical Rayong 685, New Biodiesel Suratthani 220, Pure Biodiesel Rayong 300, Siam Gulf Petrochemical Petchaburi 1,200, E-Ether Chiang Rai 50, Bangchak Biofuel Ayudhaya 300,000 TOTAL 5,955,800 Palm oil is the main oil used in the blending and the government also provided a budget of 1.3 billion baht to promote palm oil production through low-interest loans tied in with a sectorial development plan. The plan is aimed at expanding the acreage under palm by 400,000ha from 2008 to 2012, or by 80,000ha annually. Incentives are also given to farmers to increase the FFB yield from 19MT/ha to 22MT/ha and the oil extraction rate (OER) from 17% to 18.5% by All these programmes have subsequently led to an increase in CPO production, which was the reason for the huge jump in CPO output in Thailand in the last five years. However, while the area under oil palm expanded accordingly in Thailand to supplement the growing need of CPO by the biodiesel industry, it did not grow according to the pace expected. The growth rate of oil palm plantations was only half of the 80,000ha a year projected. Besides the shortfall in CPO production projected, the consumption of palm oil by the biodiesel sector increased significantly from 62 million litres in 2007 to 446 million and 609 million litres respectively in 2008 and In 2010, it was estimated that biodiesel production would reach 655 million litres. The increase in 2010 was partly due to the increase in the biodiesel blend from 2% to 3% from June 2010, which led to a sharp decline in palm oil available for export, from more than 500,000 MT to about half the quantity in 2009 and

7 While it was sensible of the government to reduce the import of petroleum products by encouraging the use of biodiesel and at the same time stimulating the growth of the local palm oil industry, the increased demand for palm oil for biodiesel production, adverse weather conditions and skyrocketing vegetable oil prices caused Thailand to face a shortage of feedstock for cooking oil early this year. The shortage triggered the government to postpone indefinitely its mandate for 5% biodiesel blending scheduled to begin this year, and to temporarily halt the 3% blending rate to 2% during March and April this year. Thailand also allowed the import of 30,000 MT of crude olein to meet the local demand. Subsequently, it approved the import of another 120,000 MT of palm oil but later cancelled the move as CPO production in the country slowly recovered. Nevertheless, these developments have led many to wonder whether the country has enough CPO to supplement further the B5 policy, since even an additional 1% increase in biodiesel blending will require additional 40,000 MT of palm oil a month, or close to 500,000 MT a year. Although the area planted in the past few years will come into maturity and produce more CPO, the country s policy to continue to expand biodiesel blending, especially if the mandatory blending is increased to 5% will require more palm oil. Hence, it is inevitable that Thailand may need to cut its palm oil exports to supplement the growing need for fuel and the country may even need to import to supplement the feedstock required should the 5% biodiesel blending be implemented from Chart 6 - Production and Consumption of Oils & Fats (Total & Use for Biodiesel), USDA & MPOC Estimates Note: Assuming 3% blend for 2011 & 5% blend for 2012 &

8 2.2 Philippines Being the world s biggest coconut oil producer accounting close to half of the world s coconut oil produced, many may think that the Philippines could hardly become a net importer at this juncture; especially further investigation found that it only consumed 863,000 MT of oils & fats in The answer is yes if the country continues to consume the oils & fats at the current level. However, as the country progresses in terms of economy and population growth, it is inevitable that it will slowly raise its requirement of oils & fats in years to come. Chart 7 - Philippines: Oils & Fats Consumption According to the statistic available, oils & fats consumption in the Philippines grew at a compound annual rate of 4.1% or annually close to 30,000 MT of oils & fats being added into the country s total oils & fats consumed. However, this was based on the traditional usage of oils & fats. Since 2007, the Philippines has embarked on cutting GHG emission and reliance on imported mineral oil through mandatory blending of coco-methyl ester (CME) into diesel for transportation sector. This has resulted around 60,000 MT of coconut oil being channelled to satisfy the demand for biodiesel industry in The blend which started at 1% was later increased to 2% in 2009 and this raised further the consumption of coconut oil in the biodiesel sector to approximately 125,000 MT which was indicated in the higher growth of oils & fats consumption since Although the country has yet to raise the mandatory blending percentage of CME for 2011, the 2% blend of CME in the country will require as much as 148,160 MT as the country s diesel consumption is expected to grow at 6.2% annually where diesel consumption will reach 8,903.8 million litres. 8

9 Then, the next most sought-after answer will be the capability of the country to produce enough oils for local consumption. Due to lack of fund to carry out replanting of coconut tree, most of the trees are aging and this has resulted in inconsistence output of copra in past several years. Besides that, the erratic weather condition took place in the country especially on major copra producing region, causing problem to the copra production condition. Furthermore, as the harvesting of coconut involves human, the mechanisation of the harvesting has yet to be developed, while less and less people are interested to be involved in this line of occupation. Chart 8 shows that since the new millennium, the copra production was not consistent with the high of 2.8 million MT of copra recorded and as low as 1.9 million MT was being produced in one of the years during this period. Furthermore, without much change in the harvested area, the copra production trend in the Philippines is heading downward with possible copra production to stay below 2.0 million MT in next 5 years. Chart 8 - Copra Production in the Philippines This will lead to the production of coconut oil being stagnant in years to come with an estimated million MT being produced on average in the next 5 years. Many still think that this is still sufficient for the country to feed its people despite having the oils & fats consumption being projected to reach 1.1 million MT by However, this is not taken into consideration should the country increases its mandatory blending of CME. As of February this year, the Department of Energy has started studying the possibility of increasing the blend to 5% and if this materialised, the demand for coconut oil in biodiesel industry will double and by then, the country will have to rely on imported oils & fats to supplement the country s need for oils & fats. In fact, due to the premium that coconut oil is fetching in the international oils & fats market, most of the users in the country have slowly switched to use a more 9

10 affordable alternative, and palm oil has been the prime choice. Table 3 - Production and Consumption of Coconut Oil (MT) (2011F-2015F) 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F Coconut oil Prod. 1,350,000 1,400,000 1,300,000 1,350,000 1,250,000 Consumption Traditional (total oils) 750, , , , ,000 Biodiesel (coconut oil) 148, , , , ,464 Surplus / (Deficit) 451, , , , ,536 and MPOC Estimates 2.3 Russia Russia is one of the world s biggest sunflower oil producers in the world, representing 21% of world s total sunflower oil production. After experiencing a record 2.9 million MT of sunflower oil production in 2009, the worst drought that hit the country had affected the main oilseed crop, resulting in the reduction of total sunflower oil production of only 2.6 million MT last year. With a vast population of more than 141 million people, production of oils and fats in the country is not sufficient to cater to the domestic demand. Although Russia is a major producer of sunflower oil in the world, most of the oils are being consumed locally and this leads to Russia needing to depend on import to fill up the shortage left as domestic requirements continue to grow. Chart 9 - Russia: Production of Oils and Fats In 2009, Russia became a net exporter when its net exports surpassed the net imports 10

11 figures after being a net importer since Production of oils and fats reached a record level of almost 4 million MT, with sunflower oil produced at 2.9 million MT in that year. Productions of other oils and fats, namely soybean oil, rapeseed oil and lard also increased. An additional 233,900 MT of sunflower oil was exported in that year which also saw imports of the main vegetable oil, palm oil, decreased by 166,700 MT from a year earlier. As a result of drought-reduced sunflower seed crop last year, Russia resumed its role of net importer when production of oils and fats took a tumble leading to the increase of oils and fats imports to 1.05 million MT, up from 867,600 MT imported in Chart 10 - Russia: Net Imports of Oils and Fats As domestic consumers preference towards sunflower oil continue to grow, total harvested area for sunflower seed is expected to grow and so will the harvested area for other crops. In 2010/11, it is projected that total harvested area for oilseed crops in Russia will increase by 13% to 8.3 million hectares, with harvested area for sunflower seed is projected to grow to 6.6 million hectares. As a major crop in the region, many farmers have capitalised on the high prices by increasing investments and technology to raise yields and profitability. Supplies of sunflower seed hybrids were reportedly sold out at the beginning of May this year. However, lower yields are expected to occur and total production of crops is projected to reach only 7.6 million MT in 2010/11, still lower than previous year s level of 8.3 million MT. These developments are expected to result in a further decline of oils and fats production to an estimated 3.4 million MT only by the end of The biggest 11

12 decline will also occur in sunflower oil production which is projected at 2.15 million MT, a reduction of almost 500,000 MT from previous year. While the consumption is expected to remain high, Russia will need to import close to 650,000 MT more of oils and fats to make up for the domestic shortage. Imports of palm oil are projected to be at 590,000 MT in 2011, while Russia will also import an additional 155,000 MT of sunflower oil to fill up the local demand. Imports of oilseeds for crushing are also projected to increase from 1.17 million MT recorded last year to 1.32 million MT by the end of Chart 11 - Russia: Production and Consumption of Oils & Fats According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Russia s sunflower seed production might recover to 6.2 MMT in 2011 from 5.3 million MT harvested during the drought of 2010 while soybean production is forecast to increase by 4% from last year s good crop. Assuming normal weather, the production of the country s main oilseed crops (sunflower seeds, soybeans and rapeseeds) is forecast to rebound to 8.1 million MT in 2011 from 7.2 million MT harvested during the drought of The sunflower seeds crop is forecast to reach 6.2 million MT, a 16% increase from 2010 while soybean production is forecast to increase by 4% to only 1.2 million MT. Rapeseed production will remain at 0.7 million MT. The Russian crushing industry has been expanding over the last 5 years and supports given by government through the current high export duties on sunflower seeds, soybeans and rapeseeds in order to provide a stable supply of oilseeds for crushing. Exports of sunflower seeds, soybeans and rapeseeds will not exceed 0.1 million MT if these duties continue throughout The production of other oilseed crops not subject to export duties such as linseed and wild 12

13 flax may increase and the country will continue exporting them to niche markets. However, the total production of these crops will be less than 1 million MT, and exports will hardly exceed 0.1 million MT. Russia is expected to increase imports of soybeans by 4% though making the total soybean supply close to 2.5 million MT. In the crushing industry, vegetable oil will continue to dominate considering that sunflower seeds are the primary oilseed crop. The share of meal and cake is increasing because of the increased soybean crush, but crushing for oil dominates, and sunflower seed oil remains the main vegetable oil used in food and industrial consumption in Russia. Due to the drought-induced decrease of the sunflower seed crop, domestic production of vegetable oils has decreased to 2.5 million MT in 2010 from the 3.0 and 3.1 million MT in the two previous years. However, FAS Moscow forecasts that the domestic vegetable oil production will recover to 3.0 million MT in Meanwhile, Russia s food industry is projected to grow and the demand for vegetables oil in such industries such as confectionary, mayonnaise, margarine, soap, pharmaceuticals, ingredients, ice cream, dairy will continue to increase. Thus, despite increased domestic production of vegetable oils, many food producers will continue importing palm oil in 2011, attracted by the stability of its supply. Taking into account that total imports will remain at 1 million MT mark in 2011, Russia will continue becoming a net importing country, having to fulfil the domestic demand. This is in contrast to total exports which are projected to decrease to only 0.4 million MT including 0.1 million MT of rapeseed oil which is expected to be exported to the EU, mostly for biofuel sector. Russia is also expected to decrease it exports of sunflower oil by more than double that of last year s figures as domestic consumption of sunflower oil continues to expand. 2.4 Other Countries Harvested area of oilseeds in USA has been hovering between 32.1 and 37.6 million ha since the new millennium, and the 37.6 million has been the highest since year 2000, indicating the area for oilseeds is rather limited in terms of further expansion. However, with the advancement in technologies, USA was able to improve the yield of the soybean and other oilseeds and increased the oilseeds produced by 25% within the last 10 years. Being a major soybean exporting country, soybean exported from this country also increased by 3.5 million MT annually since 2006 and reached million MT in Based on this development, there is no question about the ability of USA to continue being a net exporting country but what is worth mentioning here is that with the stagnating planting area available, as well as growing consumption of oils & fats in this country (especially when the country also embarked on biodiesel production and application through offering Biodiesel Tax Credit), USA may witness 13

14 a slowdown in net export volume of its soybean and soybean oil in years to come. Similarly, mandatory blending of biodiesel and also incentives provided by the government of Brazil and Argentina will also require some of the soybean oil being retained in the two countries. However, as the soybean area has been expanding even though at a lower rate, the country may not be able to increase its soybean oil export from the current level but may be able to retain the same volume in years to come. Furthermore, the uncertainty in weather condition could also be detrimental to the soybean production as what happened in 2008 & 2009 when the soybean crop was badly affected. Finally, as the prices of grains such as corn and wheat are also fetching premium against oilseeds from time to time, this could also influence the decision of farmer on this type of agriculture crop to be planted and this will further add to the uncertainty of soybean production in these countries. 3.0 Conclusion Growing population and affluence are driving the demand of oils & fats higher from year to year and this has slowly led to growing number of countries that are unable to self-satisfy its people on this basic necessity. This paper has highlighted that although Thailand and the Philippines will not transform to net importers in next 5 years, these countries have shown the trend of reaching that status in years to come. As for Russia, the ability to produce bumper sunflower seed will not be easily repeated, and hence the country could not run away from relying on other major oils & fats exporters for its need of this commodity. Being the world 3 biggest soybean producers, the biodiesel production in USA, Brazil and Argentina which is encouraged by either the tax credit or mandate in various blending exercises, may not be able to expand its soybean output at the same pace with the growth of requirement for soybean in biodiesel production. Hence, they will reduce their contribution to the need of oils & fats among the net importing countries. This will then make more net importing countries to search for other oils which in this case, palm oil will be the choice as it is the only other oil that has been made available for importation. Hence, the world should be grateful that a golden crop is made available for the world at an affordable cost as it could be produced efficiently using least land and feed the world with enough oils & fats for optimal growth condition. Playing this role will be countries like Malaysia and Indonesia which are able to devote a majority of its agricultural land to produce palm oil and share with the world in need for oils. Based on their extensive research and development, there is no 14

15 question that the two countries will continue to be the major net exporting countries supplementing other net importers need in the future. 15