CPO Supporting Fund and Its Impact On Indonesian Palm Oil Market. Fadhil Hasan Indonesian Palm Oil Association
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1 CPO Supporting Fund and Its Impact On Indonesian Palm Oil ket Fadhil Hasan Indonesian Palm Oil Association
2 Background There are several reasons the government imposes the new levy imposed on CPO and its products as follows: concerns on continuing declines price of CPO at international markets. concerns on oversupply of CPO and other vegetable oils. weak demand for CPO due to slower growth in China the need to implement effective mandatory program of B15 (biodiesel) since presently it is uneconomical to produce biodiesel at current CPO prices. the need to facilitate replanting, promotion and R&D program, and improving infrastructure.
3 Continue declines of CPO prices In the last two or three years price of CPO shows declining trends, and even in the last six months price of CPO drop significantly. In 2014 the average prices of CPO was around US $ 844 per ton and in 2015 (uary-june) the average price was only US $ 669 per ton (cif Roterdam). The reason for this is due to weak demand in the main importing countries and declines in crude oil price that has close association with palm oil price. In addition, there is narrowing gap in prices of soybean oil and palm oil indicating deterioration of palm oil competitiveness.
4 Development of CPO prices cif Rott., Crude (USD per MT ) , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Jul Sep Nov Jul Sep Nov Jul Sep Nov Jul Sep Nov Jul*
5 Palm Oil Export and Prices 2, , , , , , , , , , Jul Sep Nov Jul Sep Nov Jul Sep Nov Jul Sep Nov Jul* Total Palm Oil Export (in 1000 Ton) cif Rott., Crude (USD per MT )
6 Factors affecting the decline in palm oil prices Weak demand in the main importing countries especially China and India. Declining prices of crude oil that has close association with palm oil. Good of harvest of other vegetable oils such as soybean and rapeseed. Narrowing gap in prices of soybean oil and palm oil indicating deterioration of palm oil competitiveness. Toothless mandatory biofuel program in Indonesia and Malaysia.
7 Oversupply of CPO In the meantime supply of CPO especially from Indonesia continue to increase considerably. In 2015 production is estimated at 32.5 million tonnes increase from 31 million tonnes in the previous year. Malaysia s production also increase from 19.7 million tonnes in 2014 to 20.1 million tonnes in Not only palm oil which experiences an increase in production, other vegetables also recorded highest increase in production. These include soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower.
8 Global oils & fats supply and demand scenario Global Oils & Fats Supply & Demand Scenario ('000 T) E 2015F Opening Stock 19,780 21,317 23,019 24,795 28,405 27,452 28,082 Production 164, , , , , , ,458 Import 63,592 66,007 66,856 71,929 73,966 75,400 78,459 Export 64,166 66,545 68,315 72,295 75,419 75,600 78,763 Consumption 162, , , , , , ,893 Ending Stock 21,317 23,019 24,795 28,405 27,452 28,082 28,343 Stock Usage Ratio (%)
9 Indonesian palm oil supply and balance Indonesian Palm Oil Supply and Demand Balance ('000 T) E 2015F Opening Stock 1,630 2,180 3,150 3,900 3,109 3,562 Production 22,300 24,300 26,800 27,600 30,406 31,253 Import Export 16,450 17,070 19,094 20,800 20,865 21,130 Consumption 5,379 6,309 6,980 7,640 9,168 10,131 Ending Stock 2,180 3,150 3,900 3,109 3,562 3,606 Stock Usage Ratio (%)
10 Malaysian palm oil supply and demand balance Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Demand Balance ('000 T) E 2015F Opening Stock 2,238 1,614 2,056 2,628 1,987 2,013 Production 16,993 18,912 18,785 19,216 19,667 20,090 Import 1,110 1,306 1, Export 16,644 17,991 17,575 18,122 17,278 17,800 Consumption 2,083 1,785 2,062 2,291 2,850 2,900 Ending Stock 1,614 2,056 2,628 1,987 2,013 1,953 Stock Usage Ratio (%)
11 Weak demand for CPO from the main importing countries The three largest importing countries: China, India, and EU. The growth of export of CPO slow down in recent years due to declining in economic growth, and industrial output. Meanwhile, increase in export to other countries cannot fully compensate the declining growth to the main importing countries.
12 Indonesian palm oil export Total Palm Oil Export (in 1000 Ton) Jul Sep Nov Jul Sep Nov Jul Sep Nov Jul Sep Nov , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
13 Indonesian Exports to Some Destinations (Palm & Palm Kernel Oils Exports, in 1000 Ton) 5, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , China Europe Union India Middle East + Africa
14 Supporting mandatory program on biodiesel Since 2006 Indonesia implements mandatory program on biodiesel starting from B5 and continue to increase to B10 in There are many critiques that this program is not effective and toothless as no penalty imposed on the oil companies who do not blend its diesel. In 2015 government issued new regulation to increase mandatory program on biodiesel to B15. With this B15, around 2.5 million tonnes of CPO are needed in PSO program and if non-pso program included another 2.5 million tonnes of CPO are needed. However, the government fail to allocate subsidy for this program in their budget so that Pertamina as sole buyer of this subsidize biodiesel. Thus, government asks the industry to provide subsidy for mandatory biodiesel program. It is expected that this subsidy will make the mandatory program on biodiesel better and more effective.
15 Accelerating replanting, sustainability, promotion, R&D program and improving infrastructure Indonesian palm oil industry faces problems related to infrastructures, inadequate R&D and promotion, slow replanting program, and sustainability problems. One of the causes of these because of the lack of fund needed to carry out these program. It is expected that some of the fund collected from the levy will allocated to these various program so that it make industry more efficient and competitive.
16 The Impacts: who gain, who lose Up stream industries, farmers: the up-stream industry (planters) and the farmers are clearly the looser. Exporter will transmit the levy to the farmer and pure planter and the burden will be distributed along the supply chain. We estimate that price of FFB (Fresg Fruit Bunch) will driop considerably by 20%-30%. Integrated planters: this export levy will have neutral effect for the integrated planters. On one hand they suffer from the levy of CPO but it will have incentive to produce more downstream products. Downstream industries: this industry enjoy benefits from the levy as they earn a wider processing margin due to the tax differential between CPO and processed palm oil products. Other countries exporters: This is another player who get benefits from the levy since they are now more competitive compared with their Indonesian counterpart.
17 The Impacts: short term and long term Short term: in the short term, this levy will make Indonesian palm oil industry is less competitive compared with other producing countries as they have to bear the additional costs of the levy. In addition, local price of CPO could decline and trade at as much as US $ 50 per tonne below international CPO price. Long term: in the long term, this levy is expected to boost international price of CPO as more CPO of about 5.5 million tonnes will be used in domestic markets for biodiesel. However, this requires that the mandatory program of biodiesel could be implemented effectively. The study shows that a boost of one million tonnes to local biodiesel demand in Indonesia would raise the CPO export price by $96 per tonne. Thus, enforcement of the mandatory biodiesel program is the key in determining the likely impact of the export levy on palm oil industry.
18 Conclusions Concerns on declining prices, the need to support mandatory program of biodiesel, and accelerating replanting program are the main reasons behind government decision to impose export levy on palm oil and its downstream products. The objective of the levy is to boost price of palm oil by reducing the amount of palm oil exported, to subisidize biodiesel, and to support replanting programme. However, this policy creates winner and loser and it also has significant impacts in the short term and long term. This policy will have negative impact for pure planters, neutral for the integrated industry, and positive for downstream industries and other countries exporters. In the short term, this policy will cause Indonesian palm oil industry to be less competitive. In the longterm, provided that mandatory programme on biodiesel is enforced effectively, this policy will boost price of palm oil in international market and thus, benefiting the industry as a whole.
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