Global Market Review THE INTERNATIONAL OILSEED OILSEED MARKETS IN THE 2014/15 MARKETING YEAR INTERACTIVE CONTENTS OCTOBER 2014

Transcription

1 OCTOBER 2014 INTERACTIVE CONTENTS THE INTERNATIONAL OILSEED MARKETS IN THE 2014/15 MARKETING YEAR CLICK ON HEADING BELOW TO GO direct TO INFORMATION Eu grain Corn Wheat Malting barley GERMANY THE INTERNATIONAL OILSEED MARKETS IN THE 2014/15 MARKETING YEAR Feed barley INTERNATIONAL GRAIN Malting barley Oilseeds / oilmeals Soybeans Soybean meal Rapeseed meal Sunseed meal Other feedstuffs Palm kernel expellers Citrus pulp pellets Beet pulp pellets TABLES & GRAPHS Barley trade Wheat trade Corn trade Rapeseed trade Soybean trade EU-28 Oilseed production EU-27 Export and import commitments EU-28 Grain production World crop production Corn by-products Molasses Glycerine

2 PAGE 2 EU GRAIN Corn Wheat The harvest in the EU is virtually completed. Feed wheat supplies are larger than last year. This especially applies to France and the UK, which will enter the market as feed wheat exporters due to continued rainfall shortly before and during harvest. Malting barley The barley harvest is finished in all parts of Europe. Yields in the UK and Scandinavia were higher than initial expectations and longterm averages were exceeded by about 10%. This resulted in lower protein contents, particularly in southern England and Denmark, where the average protein content was below 10%. The large feed grain supply in Europe continues to put pressure on corn prices. Feed wheat is abundant and very competitively priced, so corn has proved difficult in finding its way into the compound feed rations. This applies to almost all EU member states. In addition, corn imports into the EU are declining. Currently, French corn is most favorably priced for destinations like the UK, Ireland and the Netherlands. The imports into the EU could therefore decline significantly compared to the 15 mln t that had approximately been imported during the 2013/14 marketing year. As it often happens when prices are falling, it feels like buyers are not yet covered for their demand to a large extent. This year, Scandinavia will also get its supplies from the Baltic countries, although the prices there are still considered to be too high. As expected, high exports were noted out of the European Black Sea region in July and August. They went mainly to Spain and Egypt. The prices in northern Europe moved sideways, as there was neither much buying nor selling interest. The weaker Euro and falling quotations on Matif are helping to maintain or even raise the competitiveness of EU wheat for export into third countries. Harvest results in the Baltic States are positive and a large share of the harvested quantities is of malting barley quality. As these regions are not traditional malting barley production areas, it remains to be seen whether adequate logistics, including selection (purity of variety) and health preservation of the barley, can be guaranteed. In the UK, the acreage was officially increased by 80,000 ha. The additional quantities provided by this increase could well make up for the potential reductions in France. EU barley continues to be competitive for export. Besides winter malting barley, initial spring malting barley volumes have been traded for export to China and South America. Feed barley Recently, the prices were less favorable for use in compound feed. Demand from third countries was also low, so with that prices have declined further in recent weeks. Barley yields in the UK and Scandinavia were higher than initial expectations and longterm averages were exceeded by about 10%. This resulted in lower protein contents, particularly in southern England and Denmark, where the average protein content was below 10%.

3 PAGE 3 INTERNATIONAL GRAIN OILSEEDS / OILMEALS Malting barley In Argentina, the US and Canada, the barley crop has been negatively affected by the recent weather conditions, so it remains a question how large the exportable surplus will be. In Australia, the crop looks good, but more rainfall is needed in some regions to maintain the production potential. Decisive for the quality will be the maturation period in October and November. China continues to be the destination that determines the prices. Soybeans Growing conditions in the US have been reasonable and market participants expect a large harvest. Initial results point to very good yields. However, US farmers have limited sales to date, with domestic prices declining further with expectations of the large harvest. The exporters have sold out most of their elevation for October and November positions, which is keeping the export basis firm. With the break in Chicago to below 10 US$/bu, China is recording positive gross margins and therefore has been active in securing import quantities from the US as well as South America. In Brazil and Argentina, an increase in acreage is expected, but farmers are not yet ready to sell further beans. Soybean meal Large price fluctuations on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and a distinctly negative environment have further unsettled market participants. Offers in the origins are relatively limited. In Argentina, oil mills are complaining about the reduction in supply and the recent significantly lower crush margins. Due to this situation, FOB premiums in the origins remain firm. Buyers are very reluctant at the moment and buying interest only concentrates on a few nearby positions at technically very firm prices, as less grain will arrive over the next few weeks into the destination due to reduced and delayed shipments. Rapeseed meal Sales are low currently. Product for September and October delivery had temporarily been traded at very low prices, which had almost slumped to the 190 /t mark. Buying interest remains low as consumers are well covered for their demand. However, offers are limited as well due to a recent fire incident in an oil mill in Neuss which caused prices to rise quickly to more than 200 /t. In comparison to soybean meal, rapeseed meal has thus now become more expensive again. There are still no offers from the Black Sea region. Sunseed meal After the holiday season, more sales have been recorded. This is especially true for France, where almost no buyers had been present on the market, but now they have bought larger quantities to cover their needs. Due to the growing buying interest, offers from the Black Sea region were traded at higher levels again on a FOB basis of about US$/t. However, after this short buying wave, prices declined again. In view of a good harvest, buyers are not willing to pay any price, but rather wait until prices are on a downward trend again. Stocks in the export destinations remain at a comfortable level.

4 PAGE 4 OTHER FEEDSTUFFS GERMANY Palm kernel expellers Over the course of this month, prices through the origins have fallen to a significantly lower level. In spite of this, not much is traded in Europe, mainly due to other feed commodity markets. Only the demand for the next few months has been covered so far. Due to heavy rainfall in some regions (Thuringia, southern Lower Saxony), the German grain harvest only came to a close at the beginning of September. This was with the exception of the maize grain harvest of course, which has only just begun; yield prospects are good. The same is true for sugar beets. Citrus pulp pellets No significant activities have been noted recently on this market. Supplies remain low, however demand is also weak. Beet pulp pellets Growing conditions for sugar beets continue to be ideal. The supply is increasing across the international market. However, end consumers are very reluctant to buy. Thus prices are declining. Corn by-products Sales are low, except for distillers which are very competitive for the use in compound feed in some regions. Molasses The new beet molasses campaign will start soon and the yield potential is very high. Prices are slightly weaker as demand is rather calm. Glycerine Demand concentrates on spot deliveries. Availability is good which is keeping prices low. Growing conditions for winter rapeseed and early seeded grain is promising. Only in some parts of central Germany, rapeseed seeding was hampered by wet conditions. According to our current expectations, rapeseed acreage for the 2015 harvest could be reduced slightly again compared to the previous year s level. The reason is due to crop rotation and low values relative to wheat during the optimal planting time. According to first official figures released by the German Agriculture Ministry, this year s grain production reached 51.8 mln t. Thus it exceeded the already excellent result of 47.8 mln t achieved last year and also significantly surpassed the average of the years of 46.5 mln t. Wheat output (excluding durum) is estimated at 27.9 (25; 24.2) mln t, that of barley at 11.6 (10.3; 10.7) mln t including 9.5 (8.4; 8.4) t of winter barley, that of oats at 626,000 (628,000; 705,000) t, of rye at 3.9 (4.7; 3.7) mln t and of durum at 70,000 (53,000; 66,000) t.

5 PAGE 5 GERMANY cont. Rapeseed production should reach 6.2 (5.8; 5.3) mln t and the forthcoming corn grain harvest is expected to achieve 4.6 (4.4; 4.8) mln t. First analyses of the Max Rubner Institute point to slightly below average wheat quality with regard to the protein content, which achieved a level of 13.1 (13.1; 13.4) %. The Hagberg falling number averaged 333 seconds and remained below the 352 seconds recorded last year. However, this is still above the average of the years of 328 seconds. The German statistics office reports that Germany exported 921,000 t of grain in the first month of marketing year 2014/15 (July/June). This is down from the 1.1 mln t exported in July Exports to other EU countries reached 594,000 (701,000) t and to third countries 327,000 (399,000) t. Wheat exports stood at 546,000 (662,000) t, barley at 131,000 (83,000) t, rye at 18,000 (25,000) t, and of malt at 56,000 (38,000) t. Germany grain imports totaled 711,000 (597,000) t, with those from other EU countries 673,000 (576,000) t and totals from third countries was 38,000 (21,000) t. The imports of wheat accounted for 228,000 (189,000) t, those of barley for 195,000 (143,000) t, of oats for 35,000 (25,000) t, of corn for 137,000 (104,000) t, of rye for 30,000 (10,000) t, and of malt for 28,000 (19,000) t. The Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (Bundesanstalt für Landwirtschaft und Ernährung - BLE) reports that compound feed production in Germany reached 21.3 mln t from July 2013 to May 2014 and thus exceeded the 20.9 mln t produced in the same period of the previous season. Cattle feed output (including calves) amounted to 6.7 (6.2) mln t, that of hog feed to 8.7 (8.8) mln t and that of poultry feed to 5.6 (5.7) mln t. According to the Federal Office of Economics and Export Control (Bundesamt für Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle), the use of gasoline reached 9 mln t in January to June 2014 and thus exceeded the 8.9 mln t used in the same period of last year. The total includes a bioethanol use of 584,000 (589,000) t. Total diesel use stood at 17.2 (16.6) mln t, including a biodiesel and vegetable oil for fuel use of 1.1 (1) mln t. According to first official figures released by the German Agriculture Ministry, this year s grain production reached 51.8 mln t. Thus it exceeded the already excellent result of 47.8 mln t achieved last year

6 PAGE 6 THE INTERNATIONAL OILSEED MARKETS IN THE 2014/15 MARKETING YEAR Oilseed values have declined significantly over the past 12 months. On September 24, 2014, the price quoted for the soybean contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange stood at only 9.36 US$/bu. A year earlier, it achieved US$/bu and in September 2012 it had even climbed to a record high of nearly 18 US$/bu due to the devastating drought in the US Midwest. The equivalent rapeseed contract on Matif was quoted at /t on September 24, 2014, and thus remained nearly 50 /t below the /t recorded a year ago. In September 2012, it almost achieved 500 /t. In the following section we will explore the reasons for this price erosion as well as the prospects for the new marketing year that has just begun, based on the latest report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released on September 11, According to USDA estimates, global soybean production in the 2014/15 marketing year will increase to a new record level of 311 (2013/14: 283) mln t. Firstly, production in the US will again increase substantially compared to the previous year due to a significantly higher area under cultivation and very good yields. Secondly, the acreage in South America should continue to increase (see below). Globally, planted area is expected to increase to 118 (113) mln ha. However, planting in the Southern Hemisphere has just begun, so that an estimate is still subject to a high degree of uncertainty. The USDA estimates that soybean production in the US will increase to bln bu or mln t. Compared to 2013, this would be an increase of 624 mln bu (17 mln t). The yield is estimated to reach a new record of 46.6 bu/acre or 3.1 t/ha compared to 43.3 bu/acre or 2.9 t/ha in the previous year. Like last, this year saw delays with sowing of soybeans. This was due to the long harsh winter. Even in mid-april, large parts of the Midwest were covered with snow and the ground was frozen. However, compared to last year, farmers were able to get onto paddocks a little earlier and were largely able to complete tilling by the end of May. Plant development benefited greatly from good rainfall from mid-may onwards which helped the emergence and good development of the young plants. From mid-july to mid-august, rainfall in some regions of the Midwest was in fact well below the average of recent years, but temperatures remained moderate so that the soil moisture from the previous weeks was sufficient.

7 PAGE 7 From mid-august, rain returned and temperatures rarely exceeded the 30 C mark, so conditions during pod formation and filling could not have been better. the ratio of the two prices was recently between 2.9:1 and 3.0:1, and therefore significantly higher than the average ratio of 2.5:1 it is likely that many farmers will opt to grow soybeans. A reliable statement about the yield in the US will only be possible in the USDA s October and November reports when a large number of representative harvest results are available. In the southern growing regions of the US (Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, etc.) the soybean harvest is already in full swing. Local yields are far above average. It is therefore quite conceivable that the USDA s yield expectations, which are already high, will be revised upwards again in the coming months. Even with current projected yields, the supply situation this year is expected to be much more relaxed. With a projected soybean crush of (previous year: 1.730) bln bu or 48.2 mln t and exports amounting to (1.315) bln bu, or 47.1 mln t, according to the USDA, reserves at the end of the 2014/15 marketing year would be 475 mln bu, or 12.9 mln t, the highest level ever, and at the same time 345 mln bu or 9.4 mln t (metric tonnes) over the low figure of 130 mln bu or 3.5 mln t from the previous marketing year. Even the ending stocks-to-use ratio, so important for assessing the supply situation, would rise significantly to 25.2 (7.5)%. The US harvest has been preceded by very good soybean production in South America this year. However, over the past few months, both Brazil and Paraguay have exported such large quantities of soybeans that as in 2013 only small export volumes are expected from South America for the last quarter of the current year. In Argentina stocks are larger, but farmers continue to sell only relatively small volumes of soybeans to limit their financial loss due to the depreciation of the peso. Until the start of the harvest in Brazil, international demand will most likely focus on the US, which is again expected to export a large proportion of its export surplus at the start of the US marketing year. At present, another large soybean harvest in South America seems quite possible. Due to the exceptionally large price differentials between soybeans and corn on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, For Brazil, the USDA expects an increase in area for the next harvest of 1.4 mln ha to 31.5 (previous year: 30.1) mln ha. Production is even expected to rise from 86.7 to 94.0 mln t. Additional port facilities in the north of the country will improve the logistics situation in the short to mid-term in the surrounding regions (including in Para, Tocantins and Piaui), so they will become considerably more attractive for the production of arable crops. In addition to the new ports, a new rail link is being built which is expected to give inland factories better connections. Overall, the transportation costs, which represent a significant cost factor for businesses in the region, should fall. In Argentina, the area under cultivation is expected to rise to 20 (19.8) mln ha and production to 55 (54) mln t. Whether the forecast increase in production actually takes place essentially The US harvest has been preceded by very good soybean production in South America this year. However, over the past few months, both Brazil and Paraguay have exported such large quantities of soybeans that as in 2013 only small export volumes are expected from South America for the last quarter of the current year.

8 PAGE 8 depends on the weather conditions between November and March. Such long-term weather forecasting is notoriously uncertain. La Niña weather conditions, which as a rule bring very dry conditions to Argentina, Paraguay and southern Brazil, currently do not seem to exist. On the contrary, the majority of meteorologists consider an El Niño weather pattern possible, which is usually associated with above-average rainfall in Argentina and southern Brazil. China will remain a decisive factor for determining prices on the soybean market because of its growing domestic demand. For 2014/15, the USDA expects an increase in imports to 74 mln t. This would be a moderate increase of 5 mln t compared to last year. Driven by steadily increasing meat production and the associated increase in the consumption of soybean meal, domestic soybean crush is expected to continue to rise to 73.5 (68.8) mln t. This means that China would be responsible for approximately 40% of the global increase in oilseed crush expected for 2014/15, estimated by the USDA at 252 (240) mln t. Taking into account the soybeans that are fed either directly or used as food worldwide, more than 16 mln t, the total global use of soybeans is expected to increase to 285 (269) mln t. However, this would still be less than the expected production volume of 311 mln t. This would result in an increase in ending stocks by 31 August, 2015 (the end of the marketing year 2014/15) to 90 (67) mln t. This would be almost the highest level ever. Also, the ending stocks-to-use ratio would be 31.6 (24.9)%, well above the average for the last 10 years. The supply of the global rapeseed market will continue to improve in the 2014/15 marketing year following good harvests across the world again and it cannot necessarily be assumed that demand will grow rapidly. Overall, the USDA estimates the global rapeseed harvest in the 2014/15 marketing year will be 70.7 mln t, resulting in 500,000 t below the 71.2 mln t in 2013/14. In particular, the harvest in the EU again exceeded last year s record and, according to the USDA, at 23.4 mln t, is around 2.3 mln t higher than in the previous year. The 24 mln t mark might even have been reached. The supply of the global rapeseed market will continue to improve in the 2014/15 marketing year following good harvests across the world again and it cannot necessarily be assumed that demand will grow rapidly. At the same time, better yields than last year were achieved in all major countries of the EU. The cool, humid months of May and June were beneficial to crop development, enabling plants to form good pods. In Ukraine, growing conditions were similarly good and the harvest, at 2.2 (previous year: 2.4) mln t, is only slightly below last year s level. Together with

9 PAGE 9 the outstanding harvest in the EU, Ukraine is ensuring that the rapeseed supply situation in Europe is very comfortable. The demand from the biodiesel industry for rapeseed oil depends on several factors and is therefore difficult to predict. The current very low level of rapeseed oil prices could have a positive effect on demand. At the beginning of September, the rapeseed oil price FOB Dutch mill was just under 630 /t, which is the lowest level since the start of At the same time, this makes rapeseed oil cheaper than mineral diesel, which was listed on the Intercontinental Exchange at the same time at over 680 /t. Consequently, prices have made rapeseed oil more attractive for blending. Moreover, in countries where the appropriate infrastructure still exists (e.g. Sweden), B-100 or rapeseed oil might again increasingly find its way straight into the tank. abatement quota. In this matter, industry and government had agreed this summer on a quota of 3.5% and not on the originally planned quota of only 3%. This means that the total greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector must be reduced by 3.5% by using biofuels in order to meet the quota requirement. It is relatively uncertain how the new rules will affect total use of biodiesel and rapeseed oil. A simplified example illustrates this: in Germany due to the current quota requirement, there is an industry standard which requires B-7. This means that ordinary diesel at the petrol station usually consists of 93% mineral diesel and 7% biodiesel, which corresponds to a quantity of around 2.1 mln t of biodiesel. If biodiesel creates 50% less GHG compared to mineral diesel, which is currently about what is expected, the desired GHG reduction rate of 3.5% would therefore continue to require a 7% blending and the level of biodiesel consumption would therefore remain constant. Depending on the potential for GHG reduction and the relative price differences between the various oils or fats, however, there may well be deviations. If more oils/fats with a higher GHG abatement potential compared to rapeseed oil are used than previously and partly displace rapeseed oil, lower biodiesel use would be sufficient to meet the quota and viceversa. Furthermore, blending ethanol in mineral petrol has an influence on biodiesel quantities. As is well known, in the matter of the GHG abatement quota, we are talking about an overall quota, so a possible increased use of ethanol could well displace the use of biodiesel. The RED (Renewable Energy Directive), which after long delays has now been introduced into some EU countries (e.g. Poland and Belgium) will probably have a negative effect on the use of biodiesel and rapeseed oil. As part of the RED, biodiesel from used cooking oils and fats, for instance, can be counted at double the rate in the quota because used cooking oils and fats have no alternative uses as food or feed. In light of these statements, it is not easy to forecast the demand for rapeseed in the EU. The demand from the biodiesel industry for rapeseed oil depends on several factors and is therefore difficult to predict. The current very low level of rapeseed oil prices could have a positive effect on demand. At the beginning of September, the rapeseed oil price FOB Dutch mill was just under 630 /t, which is the lowest level since the start of Another factor affecting the development of rapeseed oil demand is the change-over of the mandatory requirements in Germany planned for January 2015, from an energy blending quota to a greenhouse gas In the latest estimate, the USDA assumes a slight increase to 23.6 (23) mln t. Total EU imports are estimated at 2.6 (3.5) mln t, and in particular imports from Australia are expected to decline further, potentially simply not

10 PAGE 10 needed. Even so, ending stocks are expected to rise to an all-time record level of 2.6 (2012/13: 1.8) mln t. The Australian rapeseed harvest, which begins in November, is estimated by the USDA at 3.5 mln t and would therefore be around 300,000 t below that of the previous year. A large part of exports will very likely go to Asia, primarily Pakistan and China. In particular, Chinese imports could ultimately turn out to be higher than the 3.2 (4.7) mln t estimated by the USDA, although domestic stocks are very large. It is especially the demand for rapeseed meal that influences rapeseed imports. A large part of the rapeseed meal is used in China for aquaculture. Pakistan s imports are estimated by the USDA to be at a very high level of 850,000 (600,000) t. After the record harvest last year, this year s harvest in Canada is estimated to be about average. One of the reasons for this is the area under cultivation which, due to heavy rains in early summer, has dropped to 7.8 (8) mln ha, which is below last year s level. Secondly, yields will not reach last year s record level, with production estimated at 14.7 (18) mln t. The USDA estimates rapeseed crush will be slightly higher at 7.2 (7) mln t, while exports are projected to decline to 8 (9.2) mln t due to lower production. Ending stocks are expected to decline to 1.8 (2.4) mln t. According to the USDA s estimate, global sunflower seed production in the 2014/15 marketing year will be 40.5 mln t, below last year s record level of 42.9 mln t. The main reason for this is that yields are to fall back to average levels. For Russian production, a figure of 9.8 (10.6) mln t is given. For Ukraine, production will also decrease to a level of 10 (11.6) mln t, although it should be noted that private analysts estimate production at mln t. In the EU, the situation is similar. The USDA estimates this year s production at 8.4 (8.9) mln t, whereas other estimates tend to assume production similar to last year s. Overall, it can be assumed that harvest will be very good again this year and the supply situation will remain very comfortable and that sunflower oil will again compete strongly with soybean oil in North Africa and Asia. The summary of the USDA estimates for the three most important oilseeds (soybean, rapeseed and sunflower) and the forecast for four other important oilseeds (peanut, cottonseed, palm kernel and copra) show that global production of the seven most important oilseeds in the 2014/15 marketing year should be around 528 mln t and consequently well above the 503 mln t of the last marketing year. Oilseed use is expected to rise to 501 (484) mln t, of which oil mill crush represents 429 (416) mln t. Global ending stocks would therefore increase to 104 (81) mln t, representing a stocks-to-use ratio of 20.6 (16.7)%, a figure well above the average of the last 10 years. The record harvests globally are causing a shift from the demanddriven market towards a supply market, which overall is also reflected in prices. How high production in the US achieves will be eagerly awaited this year. The yield estimated by the USDA is already a record, yet many market participants are expecting an even higher production figure. The sowing conditions in South America have been good so far, as it was mainly the wheat-growing regions in Argentina despite following soybean areas, that were affected by the heavy rains of the past few weeks. According to the USDA s estimate, global sunflower seed production in the 2014/15 marketing year will be 40.5 mln t, below last year s record level of 42.9 mln t. The main reason for this is that yields are to fall back to average levels.

11 PAGE 11 BARLEY TRADE (mln t) WHEAT TRADE (mln t) CORN TRADE (mln t) SOYBEAN TRADE (mln t) RAPESEED TRADE (mln t) 2014/ / / / / / / / / /14 WORLD WORLD WORLD WORLD WORLD EXPORTERS USA Canada Australia Russia Ukraine EU Argentina Kazakhstan IMPORTERS USA China Japan Jordan Saudi Arabia Iran Tunesia Source: USDA EXPORTERS USA Canada Argentina Australia Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan EU India IMPORTERS Brazil Mexico South Korea Japan Indonesia Iraq Egypt Morocco Algeria EU China EXPORTERS USA Argentina Brazil South Africa Ukraine India EU Russia Paraguay IMPORTERS Mexico Colombia Egypt Iran South Korea Japan Taiwan EU China Source: USDA EXPORTERS USA Argentina Brazil Paraguay IMPORTERS Mexico China Japan South Korea Taiwan Thailand Indonesia EU Source: USDA EXPORTERS Canada Australia EU Ukraine USA IMPORTERS USA Mexico China Japan Pakistan UAE EU Source: USDA Source: USDA

12 PAGE 12 EU-28 OILSEED PRODUCTION (in 1,000 t) EU-27 EXPORT AND IMPORT COMMITMENTS (in 1,000 t) RAPESEED SUNSEED SOYBEANS TOTAL * * * * 2013 EU-28 23,814 21,148 9,088 8,819 1,575 1,474 34,478 31,441 EU-15 15,609 13,885 2,949 3,028 1,241 1,139 19,800 18,053 Germany 6,208 5, ,274 5,834 France 5,531 4,378 1,598 1, ,240 6,069 Italy , ,344 1,210 Netherlands Belgium/Lux U.K. 2,409 2, ,409 2,217 Ireland Denmark Greece Spain ,039 Portugal Austria Sweden Finland EU-13 8,205 7,263 6,139 5, ,678 13,388 Poland 3,108 2, ,113 2,909 Czech Republic 1,480 1, ,543 1,492 Slovakia Hungary ,678 1, ,387 2,104 Estonia Latvia Lithuania Slovenia Romania 1, ,052 2, ,287 2,850 Bulgaria ,054 1, ,588 2,182 Croatia Source: ADM Germany GmbH * Estimates EU-28 01/07/ /09/2014 Export Import (incl Food Aid) EU-27 01/07/ /09/2013 Export Import (incl. Food Aid) Wheat 6,427 1,279 6, Wheat flour * Durum wheat Semolina * Barley 2, ,395 6 Malt * Corn 385 2, Rye Rye flour * Oats Sorghum Others Total 9,337 4,106 10,615 1,606 Source: EU-Commission * in grain equivalent

13 PAGE 13 EU-28 GRAIN PRODUCTION (in 1,000 t) WHEAT (excl. Durum) DURUM BARLEY (Total) spring Barley CORN RYE OATS TRITICALE OTHERS** TOTAL GRAINS 2014* * * * * * * * * * 2013 EU , ,517 7,564 7,784 58,744 59,671 28,839 33,078 70,467 64,481 9,273 10,334 7,743 8,543 12,130 11,460 4,355 3, , ,787 EU ,106 96,484 7,115 7,321 47,486 49,706 22,473 27,586 39,994 36,556 5,392 6,286 5,301 6,163 6,237 5, , ,037 Germany 27,871 24, ,627 10,367 2,099 1,959 4,896 4,072 3,870 4, ,041 2, ,092 47,444 France 37,592 36,647 1,451 1,416 11,653 10,373 3,167 3,018 16,968 14, ,089 2, ,712 66,207 Italy 3,321 3,233 3,787 3, ,912 7, ,509 16,443 Netherlands 1,394 1, ,946 1,899 Belgium/Lux. 1,980 1, ,294 3,318 U.K. 16,579 11, ,315 7,095 3,392 5, , ,725 20,146 Ireland ,254 1, , ,293 2,329 Denmark 4,800 4, ,399 3,946 2,643 3, ,147 8,973 Greece , ,330 1, ,149 3,221 Spain 5,580 6, ,065 10,112 6,201 8,912 4,550 4, ,378 24,454 Portugal ,088 Austria 1,688 1, ,398 1, ,465 4,515 Sweden 2,858 1, ,628 1,933 1,546 1, ,621 4,999 Finland 1, ,873 1,812 1,873 1, ,116 1, ,133 4,001 EU-13 41,338 41, ,442 10,164 6,365 5,492 32,519 29,966 3,887 4,057 2,512 2,453 5,893 5,648 3,540 3, ,579 97,052 Poland 10,944 9, ,558 2,889 2,592 2,040 3,864 3,843 3,330 3,408 1,300 1,225 4,594 4,305 3,306 3,038 30,896 28,362 Czech Republic 4,748 4, ,755 1,625 1,219 1, ,220 7,889 Slovakia 1,647 1, ,496 1, ,845 3,533 Hungary 4,836 4, ,256 1, ,995 6, ,840 13,521 Estonia Latvia 1,207 1, ,816 1,862 Lithuania 2,656 2, ,282 4,305 Slovenia Cyprus Malta Romania 8,268 8, ,601 1, ,838 10, ,269 20,623 Bulgaria 4,908 5, ,807 2, ,673 8,872 Croatia ,046 2, ,071 3,302 Source: ADM Germany GmbH * Estimates ** Sorghum, Mixed Grains

14 PAGE 14 World Crop Production Production (mln tons) Area (mln ha) 2014/15** 2013/14* 2012/ /15** 2013/14* 2012/13 WORLD TOTAL GRAIN (incl. Rice)*** 2, , , USA Canada Argentina Australia China India Russia Ukraine EU WORLD WHEAT (Jul/ Jun)*** USA Canada Argentina Australia China India FSU Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan EU WORLD CORN (Sep/ Aug)*** USA Argentina Brazil China South Africa Ukraine EU Sources: USDA, Stats. Canada, ABARE, own Estimates * Estimate ** Forecast *** Sum as USDA Production (mln tons) Area (mln ha) 2014/15** 2013/14* 2012/ /15** 2013/14* 2012/13 WORLD BARLEY (Jul/ Jun)*** USA Canada Australia Russia Ukraine EU Argentina WORLD RICE (Milled) (Jan/Dec)*** USA China India Indonesia WORLD TOTAL OIL- SEEDS*** WORLD SOYBEANS (Sep/Aug)*** USA Argentina Brazil China India WORLD RAPESEED (Jul/Jun)*** Canada Australia China India EU Ukraine WORLD SUNSEED (Sep/Aug)*** Argentina Russia Ukraine EU