Russian Crude Exports by Direction

Transcription

1 Russian Crude Exports by Direction an outlook up to 22 For Platts Crude Oil Summit 21 May 213 Arsenije Dusanic JBC Energy GmbH May 213 Research - Energy Studies - Consulting - Training

2 Disclaimer All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements (including those depicted in graphical form) are statements of future expectations that are based on JBC Energy s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things statements expressing JBC Energy s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as anticipate, believe, could, estimate, expect, intend, may, plan, objectives, outlook, probably, project, will, forecast, predict, think, seek, target, risks, goals, should and similar terms and phrases. All forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers/audience should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation. Neither JBC Energy nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this speech/presentation. Any persons acting on information contained in this presentation does so solely at their own risk. JBC Energy is not responsible for the accuracy of data collected from external sources and will not be held liable for any errors or omissions in facts or analysis contained in this presentation. JBC s third party sources provide data to JBC on an as-is basis and accept no responsibility and disclaim any liability relating to reliance on or use of their data by any party. 21 May 213 Slide 2

3 Russian Crude Export Pipelines Legend: Existing Pipeline Pipeline Under Construction Russian Crude Pipeline Projects Zapolyarnoe-Purpe to be completed in three phases by 216 Zapolyarnoe Vankor Purpe Taishet-Skovorodino line's capacity is increased to 1 million b/d Primorsk Ust-Luga BPS-2 Yaroslavl BPS Samotlor RUSSIA Taishet Skovorodino The Skovorodino-Kozmino pipeline has a capacity of 6, b/d Druzhba Unecha KAZAKHSTAN ESPO Komsomolsk Novorossiysk Daqing Refinery 12, b/d CHINA Kozmino Source: JBC Energy 21 May 213 Slide 3

4 Crude Exports: Capacity vs Actual Volumes Russian Crude Export Capacity versus Export Volumes [ mbpd; % ] 1 1% 9 9% 8 8% 7 7% 6 6% 5 5% 4 4% 3 3% 2 2% 1 Western pipelines (Druzhba, Belarus, Ukraine) Omsk-Pavlodar CPC (Russia's share - 31%) Other routes BPS-1 BPS-2 1% Source: JBC Energy SuDeP, Various ESPO Crude Available for Exports Implied Export Capacity Utilisation - right scale % 21 May 213 Slide 4

5 Russian Oil Output Outlook Tight oil less promising Projects cancelled / delayed Additional tight oil Upside Russian Oil Production Scenarios [million b/d] Implementation of tax breaks and tight formation geology speak for a strong case on the upside. Less favorable regulation framework Higher decline rates Lower declines through EOR Base Case Downside Low case possibility due to slow pace of tax exemptions implementation May 213 Slide 5

6 Domestic Crude Intake vs Exports Russian Refinery Crude Intake vs Export Volumes [' b/d] 6, Domestic Crude Use Crude Exports 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, May 213 Slide 6

7 ESPO Exports 8 ESPO Exports [' b/d] Source: Energy Intelligence China Kozmino Quarterly Average Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr May 213 Slide 7

8 East Siberian Output Outlook Projected East Siberian Oil Output by Company [' b/d] 1,4 Rosneft TNK-BP Surgutneftegaz Independents Gazprom Neft 1,2 1, Source: JBC Energy estimates, Argus May 213 Slide 8

9 ESPO Pipeline and Regional Refineries ESPO Pipeline Taishet-Skovorodino line's capacity increased from 6, b/d to 1 million b/d. Transneft intendts to connect the 7, b/d Khabarovsk (214) and the 16, b/d Komsomolsk (215) refineries to the ESPO system. Once this is done, around 2, b/d of ESPO volumes will be sent to the two Russian refineries in Russia's Far East. Tomsk Skovorodino ESPO Pipeline Komsomolsk The 6, b/d Skovorodino- Kozmino pipeline is now completed. Taishet Khabarovsk Angarsk Nakhodka??? Daqing Refinery Kozmino MONGOLIA The 3, b/d Skovorodino- Daqing spur capacity is due to be increased by 1, b/d by 215. CHINA Source: JBC Energy 21 May 213 Slide 9

10 ESPO: Exports vs Domestic Intake 1,4 ESPO Exports vs Domestic Intake [' b/d] Exports Domestic Refinery Intake 1,2 1, Source: JBC Energy estimates May 213 Slide 1

11 Druzhba Exports 1,4 1,2 Druzhba Non-CIS Exports [' b/d] Germany Poland Czech R. Slovakia BPS-2/Ust-Luga start-up. Hungary Bosnia Quarterly Average 1, Source: Energy Intelligence Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr May 213 Slide 11

12 NWE vs Med 3, Urals Seaborne Exports [' b/d, %] 9% 2,5 75% 2, 6% 1,5 45% 1, 3% 5 Novorossiysk Primorsk Ust-Luga NWE Share in Urals Seaborne - right scale Tuapse Gdansk Med Share in Urals Seaborne - right scale 15% Source: Energy Intelligence Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 % 21 May 213 Slide 12

13 Russian Crude Exports by Direction 6, Russian Exports by Direction [' b/d] North South West East 5, , , , , May 213 Slide 13

14 Russia: A Swing Exporter? Legend: Existing Pipeline Pipeline Under Construction Russian Crude Pipeline Projects Vankor Zapolyarnoe Purpe Primorsk Ust-Luga Samotlor RUSSIA BPS-2 Yaroslavl BPS Taishet Skovorodino Druzhba Unecha KAZAKHSTAN ESPO Komsomolsk Novorossiysk Daqing Refinery 12, b/d CHINA Kozmino Source: JBC Energy 21 May 213 Slide 14

15 Thank You! Research Energy Studies Consulting Training 21 May 213 Slide 15