Some insights about the Russian Rouble. Steven Palstermans Head of Strategic Financial Initiatives, Russia & CIS 13 th IRSF, London, 23 April 2013

Transcription

1 Some insights about the Russian Rouble Steven Palstermans Head of Strategic Financial Initiatives, Russia & CIS 13 th IRSF, London, 23 April 2013

2 60 Three to Fourfold Sent and Received FIN Traffic growth since vs. 2003: Threefold to Fourfold growth Traffic Sent (Millions) Traffic Received (Millions) Linear (Traffic Sent (Millions)) Linear (Traffic Received (Millions)) Some insights about the Russian rouble - 23 April th IRSF 2

3 FIN Payment represents 84% of flows in Russia 63% of payments traffic sent from Russia is domestic, which is by far the main route, followed by US and Germany USA United Kingdom 3. Germany 11 Kmsgs (+17.3%) 11 Kmsgs (+10.6%) Germany Belarus Russia Kazakhstan 1. Domestic 111 Kmsgs (+32%) 13 Kmsgs (+5.5%) 15 Kmsgs (+4.6%) 2. USA Traffic figures: 2012 full year Growth figures: 2012 vs 2011

4 FIN - Average Daily number of messages Q (in million) Total SWIFT All Markets % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2011 Actuals 2012 Actuals 2013 Actuals Best month ever Some insights about the Russian rouble - 23 April th IRSF 4

5 FIN - Average Daily number of messages Q (in thousands) Russia All Markets 280 Current Rank: % Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 2011 Actuals 2012 Actuals 2013 Actuals Some insights about the Russian rouble - 23 April th IRSF 5

6 Evolution of the share of the Russian Rouble payments worldwide and comparison with the Chinese and South African currencies Share among cross-border payments based on value Share among cross-border and domestic payments based on value 0.60% RUB share: +105,8% In 24 months RUB share: +138,2% In 24 months 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% RUB CNY 0.20% ZAR 0.10% 0.00% Currency activity share evolution in international payments value from Jan-11 to Dec-12. Other BRIC+ currencies have an activity share of 0% Currency activity share evolution in payments value from Jan-11 to Dec-12. Other BRIC+ currencies have an activity share of 0% Some insights about the Russian rouble - 23 April th IRSF 6

7 Evolution of the main sending and receiving countries of cross-border payments denominated in Russian Rouble Share of the main sending countries Share of the main receiving countries 36,6% Jan-11 38,3% Dec-12 5,8% Jan-11 14,1% Jan-11 6,6% Dec-12 20,3% Dec-12 Amount sent of payments, evolution from Jan-11 to Dec-12 Amount received of payments, evolution from Jan-11 to Dec-12 Some insights about the Russian rouble - 23 April th IRSF 7

8 Evolution of the number of countries and financial institutions sending or receiving payments in Russian Rouble Number of countries Number of financial institutions +17% In 24 months +21,4% In 24 months Some insights about the Russian rouble - 23 April th IRSF 8

9 Introduction: SWIFT statistics are unique GDP and SWIFT Payments show a similar trend Year on Year quarterly growth rates * OECD Europe Q is provisional 9 Source: SWIFT, OECD

10 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q OECD GDP Growth Rate (in %) OECD GDP actual figures published by OECD - GDP estimates by SWIFT The SWIFT Index Q Q Q Q Q Q (Nowcast) 1.6 Q (Forecast)

11 The SWIFT Index EU27 actual GDP figures as published by OECD - GDP estimates by SWIFT EU27 GDP Growth Rate (in %)

12 Rouble Tracker example of correlation GDP and SWIFT Payments show a similar trend Year on Year quarterly growth rates Russian GDP growth (IMF) SWIFT commercial payments growth 10 20% % % 2 0 5% % -6-5% % Moscow Business Forum 10 Apr For conference attendees * 12 Source: SWIFT, IMF

13 Way forward SWIFT to actively take part in several working groups within the MIFC Working Group SWIFT to continue its cooperation with TheCityUK on MIFC SWIFT to become member of the National Payment Council Continue discussions with the Bank of Russia to offer equal functionality for BESP via the SWIFT channel Actively cooperate with Central Bank of Russia and CLS on implementing the Russian Rouble as a CLS currency SWIFT and ISO20022 standards used in Russia for Corporate-to-Bank communication Some insights about the Russian rouble - 23 April th IRSF 13

14 Q&A

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16 Thank you! Steven Palstermans Head of Strategic Financial Initiatives, Russia & CIS SWIFT Avenue Adele 1 B La Hulpe Belgium T D F M steven.palstermans@swift.com swift.com E W 15

17 Evolution of the value of FX confirmation sent worldwide Comparison between two non CLS currencies: the Russian Rouble and the Chinese Renminbi % % RUB, 287% % % CNY, 223% % % 50.00% 0.00% Some insights about the Russian rouble - 23 April th IRSF 16