Goldman Sachs China Commodity Conference Building an Energy Partnership

Transcription

1 Goldman Sachs China Commodity Conference Building an Energy Partnership Alexander I. Gladyshev Head of Investor Relations May 12th, 2004

2 Preliminary Remarks Forward-looking statements. Some of the information in this presentation may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or the future financial performance of YUKOS. We caution you that these statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that we cannot predict with certainty. Accordingly, our actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what we have expressed or forecasted in the forward-looking statements. We do not intend to update these statements to make them conform with actual results. Cautionary Note to US Investors. The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as SPE case reserves, that the SEC s guidelines would prohibit in any filings with the SEC. This document is not an offer, nor the solicitation of an offer, to buy securities. 2

3 Russia in the Global Oil Industry Crude oil production (2003, mmbopd) Crude oil reserves (2002, bln bbl) Russia Saudi Arabia USA Iran China Mexico Norway UAE Canada Nigeria UK Saudi Arabia Iraq UAE Kuwait Iran Venezuela Russia USA Libya Nigeria BP Stat. Review of World Energy Source: Oil & Gas Journal Source: IEA estimate 3

4 YUKOS : #1 Oil Producer in Russia YUKOS share of Russian total: Сrude Reserves 22%* Crude oil production 19% Refining 16% Exports 22% * Share in 2002 proved crude reserves and reserves estimates of top 10 Russian oil companies YUKOS, LUKOIL, SIBNEFT, SLAVNEFT, TNK-BP, Surgutneftegas, Rosneft, Tatneft, Bashneft, and Gazprom. 4

5 YUKOS vs. Global Peers: Oil Reserves and Production Crude Oil Production (2003, mbopd) Proved Crude Oil Reserves (2003, bn barrels) BP(incl. ½ TNK-BP) (E)* ExxonMobil RD/Shell PetroChina ChevronTexaco Total YUKOS Lukoil Petrobras Surgutneftegas Lukoil* ExxonMobil YUKOS PetroChina BP RD/Shell** Petrobras ChevronTexaco Total ConocoPhillips * estimate, pro forma, including ¼ Slavneft * Lukoil SPE data ** 2002 data, before recategorization 5

6 Sustainable growth of YUKOS reserves base YUKOS proved reserves including its share in equity affiliates SPE (bn. boe) % crude oil - natural gas 6

7 Strong Organic Reserves Replacement in 2003 SPE case Net proved reserves of YUKOS consolidated subsidiaries and equity affiliates crude oil and gas, bn. boe SEC case Dec. 31, 2002 Reserve additions Production Dec. 31, % Reserves replacement* 420% * Defined as total additions to proved reserves divided by production 7

8 Significant Upside Potential for Proved Reserves bn boe 45 YUKOS SPE reserves as of December 31, Proved Probable Possible 8

9 Exploration Maturity of Russian Oil & Gas Producing Regions Oil and Gas Fields Exploration Maturity Developing Mature Frontier 9

10 YUKOS Production Up 86% Since Year Crude production, mmbopd mmbopd

11 YUKOS vs. Peers: Superior Production Growth Relative crude production change 2003/2002 % Absolute crude production change 2003/2002 mbopd Slavneft YUKOS Sibneft TNK-BP (E)** YUKOS Petrobras TNK-BP (E)** Sibneft Surgutneftegas Surgutneftegas Petrobras BP ENI Total BP Slavneft Total Lukoil Lukoil ENI BP(incl. ½ TNK-BP) (E)* BP(incl. ½ TNK-BP) (E)* ExxonMobil ExxonMobil RD/Shell RD/Shell PetroChina PetroChina Statoil Statoil ChevronTexaco ChevronTexaco -5% 5% 15% 25% * estimate, pro forma, including ¼ Slavneft ** estimate, pro forma, including ½ Slavneft

12 Continued Competitive Advantage Among Global Peer Group E&P Operating Expenses in 2003 USD per boe F&D costs (3 year average) USD per boe ConocoPhillips 4.72 ChevronTexaco 8.55 ChevronTexaco 4.59 ConocoPhillips 8.52 ENI 4.15 ExxonMobil 7.83 ExxonMobil 4.15 ENI 7.63 PetroChina Petrobras* Statoil Statoil BP PetroChina BP 2.99 Total 4.53 Total 2.66 Petrobras 3.68 Lukoil** 2.6 Lukoil* 1.48 Sibneft*** 1.68 Sibneft** 1.21 YUKOS** 1.54 YUKOS* 1.07 Source: estimates based on SFAS 69, company data * Excluding government take ** Company data for 9M2003 *** Company data for 1H2003 Source: estimates, based on SFAS 69 data. * data ** data

13 Incremental Russian Production is Exported 11 Russian crude production and export statistics, mmbopd Crude production 3 Crude exports

14 Promising Current and Potential Markets for Russian Oil USA Competition with ME oil, and possibly with Caspian oil Sufficient flexibility of US refineries to process Urals blend Logistically competitive opportunities for Russia Europe Competition with Middle East Infrastructure exists and can be expanded Opportunity to replace declining North Sea production Capability of refineries. to process Urals blend is an important factor New player light Caspian oil Russian oil China Китай Growing market Reasonable distances Currently no pipeline Еast Asia Markets Sakhalin oil is more competitive than West Siberian oil 14

15 Share of High Cost Railroad Transportation Increased 6 Russian crude exports (yearly, mmbopd) +40% 4.6 > (E) rail pipeline and other 15

16 Export Pipeline Infrastructure Development Releasing Russian Oil s Potential Estimated achieved and future impact on export capacity, mmbopd (since 1999) Key Strategic Projects: Murmansk and Eastern Pipelines Schwechat pipeline link +0.1 Butingue +0.2 Novorossiysk +0.2 Bosphorus by-pass? Druzhba improvements Adria pipeline reversal BPS +1.2 Ventspils 0.3 Murmansk pipeline Yurubcheno- Takhomsk block Murmansk (VSNK) Nefteyugansk Talakan field Possible routes of Eastern Pipelines +1.6 Moscow Samara Achinsk (incl.china) +0.6 Angarsk Novorossiisk Daquing Nakhodka Beijing Murmansk Eastern Pipeline +1.6 (incl. China)

17 Eastern Pipeline Government to decide on pipeline route and capacity Railroad provides alternative supply channel of Russian oil to China Chiandinskoye Talakanskoye Yurubchen- Takhomskoye Verhknechonskoye Angarsk Lake Baikal Daqing Nakhodka Mongolia Existing Transneft pipeline Proposed pipeline routes China 17

18 YUKOS: Well Suited for Crude Deliveries to China Tomskneft fields are well located for crude exports to China via Transneft system compared to other Russian companies Advantages in rail deliveries - Angarsk railroad terminal, experience in railroad exports Main West Siberia production area Samotlorfield Tomskneft Samara Achinsk Transneft pipelines Meget Yurubcheno-Takhomsk YUKOS Angarsk Lake Baikal Komsomolsk refinery Khabarovsk refinery Railroad routes Daquing Beijing Beijing Nakhodka 18

19 YUKOS Milestones for Accessing the Chinese Crude Oil Market 1999 First rail shipment of YUKOS crude oil to China (Sinopec) 2000 First contract on YUKOS crude oil rail deliveries with CNPC September 2001 General Agreement on Sino-Russian pipeline feasibility study May 2003 YUKOS-CNPC General Agreement on basic principles and agreements, related to long-term contract on crude oil supply by Sino-Russian pipeline. Up to 5.1 bln bbl through May 2003 Long-term contract on rail crude deliveries with CNPC March 2004 Agreement between Yukos and Russian Railroads on cooperation till 2007 (regarding crude deliveries to China) Further long-term contracts with Sinopec and CNPC 19

20 Railroad exports to China may reach 0.3 mmbopd by 2006 YUKOS Lake Baikal 0.3 Angarsk 0.17 Transneft pipeline Russia YUKOS YUKOS <0.1 Naushki Plan Total Naushki Zabaykalsk Mongolia Zabaykalsk Erlan YUKOS YUKOS China Daquing 20

21 Building an Energy Partnership Russian crude oil export growth can be sustained over the long-term China is an important incremental market for Russian producers YUKOS is well-positioned to continue to be a reliable supplier to China Government decisions on pipeline route and infrastructure development are key factors 21