AN ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF EASTERN CANADIAN CRUDE OIL IMPORTS

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1 Study No. 167 CANADIAN ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE AN ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF EASTERN CANADIAN CRUDE OIL IMPORTS Canadian Energy Research Institute Relevant Independent Objective

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3 An Economic and Environmental Assessment of 1 Eastern Canadian Crude Oil Imports Executive Summary Canada is the fifth largest oil producer in the world, accounting for 4.8 percent of world production in 2016, ranking behind the US (13.4 percent), Saudi Arabia (13.4 percent), Russia (12.2 percent) and Iran (5.0 percent) (BP 2017). Canada s proved reserves, totaling billion barrels or 10 percent of the world s share of proved reserves, are behind Venezuela (300.9 billion barrels) and Saudi Arabia (266.6 billion barrels) (BP 2017). Yet, despite this, Canada still imports oil. Eastern Canadian crude oil imports rose slightly in 2016, reaching 607 thousand barrels per day (Mbpd), with the majority of imports from the US (259 Mbpd), followed by Saudi Arabia (87 Mbpd) and Algeria (85 Mbpd) (Government of Canada 2017; NEB 2017f; Statistics Canada 2017a). The nature of the imports, however, is different between western and eastern Canada. Western Canadian crude oil imports are entirely from the US and are attributed to diluent or condensate, product used to dilute oil sands bitumen to facilitate transportation by pipeline. Eastern Canadian provinces, on the other hand, use domestic oil (either from western Canada or offshore Newfoundland & Labrador (NL)) and imported oil from various parts of the world for feedstock into eight refineries (four in Ontario (ON), 2 in Quebec (QC) and single refineries in New Brunswick (NB) and NL & Labrador) to process oil into gasoline, diesel, heating oil, propane, asphalt, and petrochemical feedstock. The scope of this study is to analyze the potential complete or partial substitution of eastern Canadian crude oil imports via domestically-sourced oil. The research provides a cost and emissions comparison based on four potential scenarios of substituting domestic vs. foreign crude oil in the central and eastern Canadian refinery market. The four scenarios include: Made in Canada in this scenario we consider complete substitution of Canadian crude oil for imported oil regardless of the cost. This scenario allows for expanded pipeline infrastructure in Eastern Canada. Expanded Access in this scenario we allow for the economic substitution of less expensive Canadian crude for imported oil. Again, a new oil pipeline is assumed in this scenario. Current Reality in this scenario we use the existing infrastructure but maximize the selection of Canadian crude from an economic perspective. The Base Case which now exists, has a portion of Canadian crude being used in central and eastern Canadian refineries but not the full amount that would be selected if only price was used to make the selection.

4 Emissions Costs Flows 2 Canadian Energy Research Institute International Social Concerns is a scenario that substitutes Canadian crude for imported oil from countries where international organizations have identified some social concerns. CERI uses the Economist s Democracy Index as a proxy for the range of social concerns (e.g., living standards, food security, human rights, environmental protection, health outcomes, etc.). Table E.1: Key Conclusions under the Four Scenarios Category Additional western Canadian supply (Mbpd) Additional eastern Canadian supply (Mbpd) Total additional Canadian crude (Mbpd) Expanded Infrastructure Made in Canada Expanded Access Existing Infrastructure Current Reality International Social Concerns Substituted foreign oil (%) 100% 57% 47% 50% Annual Cost of feedstock ($ million) Emissions (million tones CO2eq per year) Change of emissions (%) -6.2% -5.7% -5.7% -7.9% This study provides a comprehensive look at the substitution impact on refinery costs and emissions for refineries in ON, QC, NB and NL. Refineries in these provinces only process lighter crudes and are not able to process some of the heavier crude oils from Western Canada. As such, the substitution is on a like-for-like basis. The crude oil quality being imported is substituted with the same quality of crude from other parts of Canada. In all the scenarios, the substitution of Canadian crude oil for imported oil reduces overall global CO2 emissions compared to a business as usual (Base Case) option. Emissions are reduced by 2 MTCO2eq per year to 2.8 MTCO2eq per year. In some cases, Canadian emissions increase, but overall emissions which are linked to climate change decrease. Cost savings range from $23 million in the Made In Canada scenario to $317 million in the Expanded Access scenario. Both scenarios call for a new oil pipeline. In the case of Expanded Access, only those Canadian crude oil supplies cheaper than their imported counterparts are consumed in central and central and eastern refineries.

5 An Economic and Environmental Assessment of 3 Eastern Canadian Crude Oil Imports One scenario results in higher costs for QC and NB refineries. This is the substitution of oil from countries where international organizations have noted some social concerns. In this case, the cost of this policy would be approximately $79 million in additional crude oil costs.

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