On October 2, 2018, FPAC met via conference call for its weekly meeting. The following people participated in the meeting:

Transcription

1 FISH PASSAGE CENTER 847 NE 19 th Avenue, #250, Portland, OR Phone: (503) Fax: (503) us at MEMORANDUM To: From: Fish Passage Advisory Committee (FPAC) FPC Staff Date: October 4, 2018 Subject: Action Notes from October 2, 2018, FPAC meeting On October 2, 2018, FPAC met via conference call for its weekly meeting. The following people participated in the meeting: Paul Wagner (FPAC Co-Chair NOAA) Tom Lorz (FPAC Co-Chair CRITFC) Brandon Chockley (FPC) Charlie Morrill (WDFW) Dave Benner (FPC) Dave Swank (USFWS) Erick Van Dyke (ODFW) Erin Cooper (FPC) Gabe Sheer (FPC) Jay Hesse (Nez Perce Tribe) Jennifer Graham (Warm Springs Tribe) Kyle Dittmer (CRITFC) Michele DeHart (FPC) Russ Kiefer (IDFG) Sheri Sears (Colville Tribe) Trevor Conder (NOAA) AGENDA ITEMS Approval of Notes FPAC notes from September 18 th were approved without changes. Water Supply/Flood Control Dave Benner (FPC) provided a summary of the current reservoir operations. See the attached document. g:\staff\document\2018_documents\2018_files\fpac\1002\fpac notes doc

2 Idaho power will start their fall Chinook program on October 8 th (8.5 Kcfs) and it will run through December 15 th. Charlie Morrill (WDFW) asked about Priest Rapids flows in the Hanford Reach. Dave Benner will look into this and get back to FPAC. Weather Kyle Dittmer (CRITFC) provided a summary of weather conditions and water year status. See attached. The forecast for October is near normal. NOAA 30-day forecast calling for normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. NOAA long range forecast calling for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. Juvenile Fish Passage Status For passage indices on October 2, 2018, please see the attached document. For updated indices, use the FPC website. Sampling at McNary and Lower Monumental are concluded for the season. Lower Granite, Little Goose, and Bonneville will continue through the month of October. Little Goose is currently sampling every third day. Sample mortality has been zero over the last couple of weeks, although sample counts have also been low. Brandon Chockley (FPC) asked Paul Wagner (NOAA) if there were plans to return to daily sampling with zero mortality, as was planned. Paul said that he did not see a crisis, since they have done three samples but one sample contained zero fish. Brandon pointed out that the reduced sampling protocol in mid-september, so there have been a sufficient number of samples with low mortality to return to regular sampling but agrees that current sample counts do not warrant full sampling schedule. Charlie Morrill (WDFW) pointed out that numbers at Lower Granite are low for this time of year. Adult Fish Passage Status For adult counts on October 2, 2018, please see the attached document. For updated counts, use the FPC website. The corrected counts of sockeye at Ice Harbor are currently displayed on the FPC website. Charlie Morrill (WDFW) commented that fisheries managers should inform the COE what criteria for QA/QC they would like to see in the RFP for the new adult counting contract. There is language in the current RFP that QA/QC is required, but it is not specific. Juvenile Survival (NOAA memo) Paul Wagner (NOAA) provided the Science Center preliminary 2018 juvenile spring survival estimates. Spring Chinook were below average. Steelhead were close to average. Page 2 of 4

3 Brandon Chockley (FPC) pointed out that there are point estimates in the text that do not fit within the provided 95% confidence intervals. Paul Wagner will report this typo to the Science Center. Dave Swank (USFWS) asked if the higher proportion transported in 2018 is due to the early start date of transportation. Paul Wagner replied that it is likely a combination of the early start date and run timing. Additionally, with flows high enough to fully load the powerhouse, a higher proportion of juveniles are bypassed and therefore end up as transported. Erick VanDyke (ODFW) asked if survivals were separated by bypassed, transported, and undetected. Brandon Chockley (FPC) pointed out that the NOAA juvenile survival estimates are generated from juveniles detected or tagged at Lower Granite and again at McNary dams. Therefore, individuals included in the survival estimate have passed through a minimum of 2 bypasses. The methodological differences in CSS and NOAA juvenile survival estimates is outlined in the February 22, 2018 FPC memo. Lower Monumental Emergency Gate Study Proposal Battelle has submitted a proposal to measure the effects of gate location (up/down) on fish passage. Unit 1 will be out in May or June, which will affect the turbines available for the study. The blade angle of Unit 2 will need to be changed between the spring and summer seasons. Trevor Conder (NOAA) expressed concern about lowering unit flow with a higher blade angle in the spring and using Unit 3 as a priority unit. Trevor Conder suggested putting off the study until the next year so the study could be done with more standard unit priority. Paul Wagner (NOAA) asked if this is a safety issue. Trevor added that there is a directive from authorities at the Walla Walla District to conduct these studies, but there may not be a specific timeline. If the study is conducted in 2019 and not delayed, Unit 2 will be used as a fixed blade and Unit 3 will be used as a Kaplan. The gate positions will be switched very Friday. Trevor Conder explained that during low flows when only one unit is in use, changing the gate position at Unit 2 will require closing the unit for a day, so Unit 3 would become the priority unit during that period. By delaying a year, the alternative priority unit could be Unit 1. There was also discussion of using Unit 5 as the alternative priority, but Trevor pointed out that this unit priority has never been tested and he is against it. Delaying the study by a year will be supported by Trevor Conder (NOAA), Erick VanDyke (ODFW), Tom Lorz (CRITFC), and Charlie Morrill (WDFW). It will be discussed at the October FPOM meeting. September Operations at Dworshak Jay Hesse (Nez Perce) provided an overview of operations at Dworshak in September. This year, fall Chinook were transported to the Nez Perce Tribal Hatchery from Lower Granite, in order to avoid broodstock holding up below the hatchery. Page 3 of 4

4 Temperatures did increase in September, but only by a limited amount due to the use of cold water from Dworshak. Temperatures remained at or below 56 o and cold water was provided through September 24 th. Jay Hesse stated that in the future, he would change how Unit 2 testing and Unit 3 capacity caused a rapid drop in flows on one day, when flows were almost cut in half. Water temperatures were maintained due to cooler weather, but in the future flows should be stepped down. Charlie Morrill (WDFW) asked about the feasibility of saving cold water to be used in September in future years. Jay Hesse pointed out that this strategy would not work in hotter years. Coordination TMT will be Wednesday, October 3 rd. FFDRWG will be Thursday, October 4 th, at 10:00. The next FPAC is face-to-face and will be on October 16 th at 10:00 AM. These minutes have been reviewed and approved by the Fish Passage Advisory Committee. Page 4 of 4

5 FPAC Agenda for Tuesday October 2, 2018 Meeting time: 9:00 AM 1. Review and approval of notes from September 21, meeting 2. Water supply and reservoir status 3. Weather update and climate forecast 4. Fish passage status 5. Northwest Fisheries Science Center s juvenile survival estimate for spring Lower Monumental emergency gate study proposal discussion 7. Coordination for other scheduled meetings 8. Other

6 FISH PASSAGE CENTER 847 NE 19 th Avenue, #250, Portland, OR Phone: (503) Fax: (503) us at MEMORANDUM TO: FROM: FPAC David Benner, FPC DATE: October 2 nd, 2018 RE: Reservoir Operations Grand Coulee Reservoir is at 1,283.6 feet ( ) and has refilled 0.2 feet over the last week. Outflows at Grand Coulee have ranged between 45.2 Kcfs and 71.9 Kcfs over the last week. The Libby Reservoir is currently at elevation 2,441.6 feet ( ) and has drafted 0.2 feet over the past week. Daily average outflows at Libby Dam have been 6.0 Kcfs over the last week. Hungry Horse is currently at an elevation of 3,549.2 feet ( ) and has drafted 0.9 feet last week. Outflows at Hungry Horse have been Kcfs over the last week. Dworshak is currently at an elevation of 1,519.2 feet ( ) and has drafted 0.6 feet over last week. Dworshak outflows have been 1.6 Kcfs over the last week. The Brownlee Reservoir was at an elevation of 2,040.2 feet on October 1 st, 2018, drafting 1.3 feet last week. Hells Canyon outflows have been Kcfs. g:\staff\document\2018_documents\2018_files\fpac\1002\fpac summary docx

7 Reservoir Elevation March FC Actual Reservoir Elevation Full Pool Figure 1. Grand Coulee Time Reservoir Elevation Actual Reservoir Elevation Full Pool Reservoir Elevation March FC Figure 2. Libby Time Page 2 of 4

8 Reservoir Elevation Actual Reservoir Elevation Full Pool Reservoir Elevation March System FC March Local FC Time Figure 3. Dworshak Reservoir Elevation Actual Reservoir Elevation Full Pool Reservoir Elevation March FC Figure 4. Hungry Horse Time Page 3 of 4

9 Reservoir Elevation March FC Actual Reservoir Elevation Full Pool Reservoir Elevation Figure 5. Brownlee Time Page 4 of 4

10 10/2/ Day and YTD Adult Counts 2018 SALMON COUNTS Daily Totals for Last 7 days and Year to Date Totals (based on reporting dates since 2000) [ FPC Home ] [ Adult Salmon Home ] Corp of Engineers Adult Fish Count Queries by Project and Fish Ladder NOTE: These data are updated as soon as the Corp of Engineers provides the data to us. MORE HOT LINKS: GO TO: Adult Count RSS Feed or Annual Totals or 10 Yr. Avg. vs 2018 and 2017 Graph Table or Water Flow & Spill or Current Water Temperature (January through December) Current vs. Historical Water Temperature (April through Aug) Offline until April FISHING REPORTS: Oregon or Washington or Idaho DATE WILLAMETTE S 2) 1/4 TOTAL UNCLIPPED 5) SHAD SOCKEYE LAMPREY CHUM PINK SOURCE 09/25/ n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a WFA 09/26/ n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a WFA 09/27/ /28/ /29/ /30/ /01/ DATE YTD n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a BONNEVILLE DAM TOTAL UNCLIPPED 5) SHAD 6) SOCKEYE LAMPREY CHUM PINK SOURCE 09/25/ n/a USACE 09/26/ n/a USACE 09/27/ n/a USACE 09/28/ n/a USACE 09/29/ n/a USACE 09/30/ n/a USACE 10/01/ n/a USACE DATE YTD THE DALLES DAM 2) **) TOTAL UNCLIPPED 5) SHAD SOCKEYE LAMPREY CHUM PINK SOURCE 09/25/ n/a USACE 09/26/ n/a USACE 09/27/ n/a USACE 09/28/ n/a USACE 09/29/ n/a USACE 09/30/ n/a USACE 10/01/ n/a USACE DATE YTD n/a JOHN DAY DAM 2) TOTAL UNCLIPPED 5) SHAD SOCKEYE LAMPREY CHUM PINK SOURCE 09/25/ n/a USACE 09/26/ n/a USACE 09/27/ n/a USACE 09/28/ n/a USACE 09/29/ n/a USACE 09/30/ n/a USACE 10/01/ n/a USACE DATE YTD n/a MCNARY DAM **) TOTAL UNCLIPPED 5) SHAD SOCKEYE LAMPREY CHUM PINK SOURCE 09/25/ USACE 09/26/ USACE 09/27/ USACE 09/28/ USACE 09/29/ USACE 09/30/ USACE 10/01/ YTD

11 10/2/ Day and YTD Adult Counts DATE ICE HARBOR DAM 2/4 TOTAL UNCLIPPED 5) SHAD SOCKEYE LAMPREY CHUM PINK SOURCE 09/25/ USACE 09/26/ USACE 09/27/ USACE 09/28/ USACE 09/29/ USACE 09/30/ USACE 10/01/ USACE DATE YTD LOWER MONUMENTAL DAM 2) TOTAL UNCLIPPED 5) SHAD SOCKEYE LAMPREY CHUM PINK SOURCE 09/25/ n/a USACE 09/26/ n/a USACE 09/27/ n/a USACE 09/28/ n/a USACE 09/29/ n/a USACE 09/30/ n/a USACE 10/01/ n/a USACE DATE YTD n/a LITTLE GOOSE DAM 2) TOTAL UNCLIPPED 5) SHAD SOCKEYE LAMPREY CHUM PINK SOURCE 09/25/ n/a USACE 09/26/ n/a USACE 09/27/ n/a USACE 09/28/ n/a USACE 09/29/ n/a USACE 09/30/ n/a USACE 10/01/ n/a USACE DATE YTD n/a LOWER GRANITE DAM 3) TOTAL UNCLIPPED 5) SHAD 6) SOCKEYE LAMPREY CHUM PINK SOURCE 09/25/ n/a USACE 09/26/ n/a USACE 09/27/ n/a USACE 09/28/ n/a USACE 09/29/ n/a USACE 09/30/ n/a USACE 10/01/ n/a USACE DATE YTD PRIEST RAPIDS DAM 1) 4) TOTAL UNCLIPPED 5) SHAD SOCKEYE LAMPREY CHUM PINK SOURCE 09/25/ n/a GCPUD 09/26/ n/a GCPUD 09/27/ n/a GCPUD 09/28/ n/a GCPUD 09/29/ n/a GCPUD 09/30/ n/a GCPUD 10/01/ DATE YTD n/a WANAPUM DAM TOTAL UNCLIPPED 5) SHAD SOCKEYE LAMPREY CHUM PINK SOURCE 09/25/ n/a GCPUD 09/26/ n/a GCPUD 09/27/ n/a GCPUD 09/28/ n/a GCPUD 09/29/ n/a GCPUD 09/30/ n/a GCPUD 10/01/ DATE YTD n/a ROCK ISLAND DAM 2) 4) 7) TOTAL UNCLIPPED 5) SHAD SOCKEYE LAMPREY CHUM PINK SOURCE 09/25/ CHPUD 09/26/ CHPUD 09/27/ CHPUD 09/28/ CHPUD

12 10/2/ Day and YTD Adult Counts 09/29/ CHPUD 09/30/ CHPUD 10/01/ DATE YTD ROCKY REACH DAM 2) 4) TOTAL UNCLIPPED 5) SHAD SOCKEYE LAMPREY CHUM PINK SOURCE 09/25/ n/a CHPUD 09/26/ n/a CHPUD 09/27/ n/a CHPUD 09/28/ n/a CHPUD 09/29/ n/a CHPUD 09/30/ n/a CHPUD 10/01/ DATE YTD n/a WELLS DAM 2) 4) TOTAL UNCLIPPED 5) SHAD SOCKEYE LAMPREY CHUM PINK SOURCE 09/25/ n/a DART 09/26/ n/a DART 09/27/ n/a DART 09/28/ n/a DART 09/29/ n/a DART 09/30/ n/a DART 10/01/ YTD n/a NOTES: At Willamette Falls Dam, it takes the staff most of the day to accurately review one day of fish passage on tape when the counts are high. The WFA staff make every attempt to keep the counts as up-to-date as possible. Note: at WFA Monday's are extremely busy, as the staff attempt to catch-up with the weekend counts. The Corp of Engineers has stopped shad counting at The Dalles, starting in 2011 on the advice of the Fish Passage Operations and Management (FPOM) committee, made up of NOAA, CRITFC, ODFW, WDFW, IDFW, BPA, and COE biologists. 1) Since the year 2006, Priest Rapids Dam and Wanapum Dam jack counts have included mini jacks. 2) Shad are not counted at Willamette Falls, The Dalles, John Day, Lower Monumental, Little Goose, Rock Island, Rocky Reach and Wells Dams 3) Steelhead counts appear higher at Lower Granite Dam because most years a group which migrated into the river system between October and December overwinters below LGR and continues its migration in early March. 4) As the Army Corp of Engineers no longer collects adult counts from the PUDs, we now get data directly from Chelan, Douglas and Grant Co. PUDs and DART. The steelhead counts include unclipped (wild) steelhead. It is not appropriate to add the steelhead counts and wild steelhead counts together. 5) Unclipped steelhead are counted separately from clipped steelhead at ODFW and Corps dams on the Willamette, Columbia, and Snake Rivers. There are two categories for steelhead 1. Unclipped Steelhead and 2. Total Steelhead (combines unclipped and clipped). There is no distinction between unclipped and clipped steelhead counts at Wanapum and Priest Rapids Dams. 6) Shad are typically not counted at any of the Corps dams after August 31 each year and shad are not counted at all Corps dams. An n/a in the shad columns at Bonneville Dam and Lower Granite Dam after August 31st means that the shad are not being counted. 7) In 2018, Grant County PUD trapped 851 lamprey and transported/released 177 lamprey upstream of Rock Island Dam. Douglas County PUD transported/released the remaining 674 lamprey upstream of Rocky Reach Dam. Therefore, the ladder counts of lamprey at Rock Island and Rocky Reach dams under estimate the true numbers of lamprey past the projects. In 2012, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and NOAA Fisheries are currently developing automated counting systems for Lamprey Passage Structures (LPS) installed at Bonneville Dam. In the interest of publishing accurate counts, LPS counts will not be publicly posted in-season until the automated systems are fully operational. The adult counts in this report are based on reporting dates for dams recently established (2000). They are presented in the table below. A report with adult salmon counts based on historical dates (prior to 2000) can be found here. The reporting dates table shows that several dams stop counting fish around November 15th each year. After a dam stops counting fish for the season, only the total number of fish are shown on this report. These data are updated periodically throughout the day. The FPC data retrieving robot searches the web for updated data every 30 minutes in the AM, and every hour in the PM. The last column " Source " shows where the data was imported from: NWACE is imported from the COE's Daily Fish Reports; USACE is from US Army Corps of Engineers fish count pages; CHPUD is from Chelan PUD; GCPUD is from Grant PUD and DGPUD is from Douglas PUD and DART is from the University of Washington's Data Access in Real Time, WFA is imported from ODFW's Willamette Falls website. Some of the sites are several days behind in reporting, but is reported by the COE as zero, so where zeros appear across all rows, the data should be considered as "not yet reported". Video counts can cause a delay in posting the data to the web, because the staff at the projects have to review the tapes Adult Salmon Dam Count Monitoring Dates Dam Video Monitoring Dates Day Night Direct Monitoring Dates Bonneville Dam March 1 - March 31, 2017 December 1, February 28, 2018 May 15 - September 30, 2016 April 1 to November 30, 2017 The Dalles Dam March 1 - March 31 December 1, February 28, 2018 June 15 - September 30, 2017 April 1 to October 31, 2017 John Day Dam June 15 - September 30, 2017 April 1 to October 31, 2017 McNary Dam March 1 - March 31 November 1, February 28, 2018 June 15 - September 30, 2017 April 1 to October 31, 2017 Ice Harbor Dam Lower Monumental Dam April 1 to October 31, 2017 April 1 - October 31, /4

13 10/2/ Day and YTD Adult Counts Little Goose Dam Lower Granite Dam Priest Rapids Dam Wanapum Dam Rock Island Dam Rocky Reach Dam Wells Dam March 1 - March 31, 2017 November 1 - December 30, 2017 April 15 - November 15, 2017 (24 hr) April 15 - November 15, 2017 (24 hr) April 14 - November 15, 2017 (24 hr) April 14 - November 15, 2017 (24 hr) May 1 - November 15, 2017 (24 hr) Willamette Falls Count year round (24 hr) June 1 - September 30, 2017 April 1 to October 31, 2017 April 1 - October 31, Columbia and Snake River Fishway Outages Dam Bonneville Dam The Dalles Dam John Day Dam McNary Dam Ice Harbor Dam Lower Monumental Dam Dates Fishways are Closed Bradford Island Fishway: December 1, 2017-February 28, Cascades Island Fishway: Not Dewatering. Washington Shore Fishway: Not Dewatering. East Fish Fishway: December 1, February 28, North Fish Fishway: January 16, 2018 January 30, North Fish Fishway: December 5, 2017 December 17, South Fish Fishway: January 9, February 28, Washington Shore Fishway: January 1, 2018 January 31, Oregon Shore Fishway: February 1, February 27, North Shore Fishway: February 4, February 28, South Shore Fishway: January 1, February 3, North Shore Fishway: January 1, January 31, South Shore Fishway: February 1, February 28, Little Goose Dam January 2, February 28, Lower Granite Dam January 1, 2018 February 28, Priest Rapids Dam Wanapum Dam Rock Island Dam Left Bank Fishway: TBD Right Bank Fishway: TBD Right Bank Fishway: TBD Left Bank Fishway: TBD Right Bank Fishway: December 4, 2017 to January 5, Left Bank Fishway: December 18, 2017 to February 2, Middle Fishway: January 8, 2017 to TBD. Rocky Reach Dam December 11, 2017 to February 2, Wells Dam West Ladder: TBD East Ladder: TBD Data source: Corp of Engineers, Dewatering Plans and Schedules. Available online at: Page last updated on: :35:29 Copyright Fish Passage Center. 4/4

14 10/2/2018 Cumulative Adult Ladder Counts [ FPC Home ] [ Adult Salmon Home ] YEAR-TO-DATE RETURN COMPARISON REPORT Spring Chinook Summer Chinook Fall Chinook yr Avg yr Avg yr Avg Dam End Date Adult Jack Adult Jack Adult Jack Adult Jack Adult Jack Adult Jack Adult Jack Adult Jack Adult Jack BON 10/ TDA 10/ JDA 10/ MCN 09/ IHR 10/ LMN 10/ LGS 10/ LGR 10/ PRD 09/ WAN 09/ RIS 09/ RRH 09/ WEL 09/ WFA 09/ Dam End Date Coho Sockeye Steelhead Lamprey Shad yr Avg yr Avg Year Year Adult Jack Adult Jack Adult Jack Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult Adult Unclipped Unclipped Unclipped 10 Year Year BON 10/ TDA 10/ JDA 10/ MCN 09/ IHR 10/ LMN 10/ LGS 10/ LGR 10/ PRD 09/ WAN 09/ RIS 09/ RRH 09/ WEL 09/ WFA 09/ NOTES: Since the year 2006, Priest Rapids Dam jack counts have included mini jacks. BON=Bonneville, TDA=The Dalles, JDA=John Day, MCN=McNary, LMN=Lower Monumental, LGS=Little Goose, LGR=Lower Granite, PRD=Priest Rapids, RIS=Rock Island, RRH=Rocky Reach, WEL=Wells, WFA Willamette Falls Dam This report is based on historic dam counting dates. In January and February, Willamette Falls Dam is the only project that appears on the report because historically it collected data during this time period. End Date is the last day of data we have for that site - the 2014 and 10 year average are also run to this end date. PRD is not posting wild steelhead numbers. These numbers were collected from USACE, Grant PUD, Douglas PUD, Chelan PUD, ODFW and DART. Shad data are not available at WEL, WFA, RIS, and RRH. Wild steelhead numbers are included in the total. Wild Steelhead are defined as unclipped fish. Historic counts (pre-1996) were obtained from CRITFC and compiled by the FPC. Historic counts 1997 to present were obtained from the Corps of Engineers. Page design last updated on: March 9, 2018 This website designed for 1024 x 768 or higher resolution. Questions and comments to: webmaster@fpc.org [ Home ] [ Adult ] [ Smolt ] [ Spawning ] [ River ] [ Hatchery] [ Survival] [ Travel times] [ Documents ] 1/1

15 FISH PASSAGE CENTER Date 10/2/2018 3:16:58 PM Smolt Monitoring Program Two Week Passage Index Report Page 1 of 7 COMBINED YEARLING Date WTB (Coll) IMN (Coll) GRN (Coll) LEW (Coll) LGR (Index) LGS (Index) LMN (Index) RIS (Index) MCN (Index) JDA (Index) BO2 (Index) 09/18/ /19/ /20/ /21/ /22/ /23/ /24/ /25/ /26/ /27/ /28/ /29/ /30/ /01/ /02/ Total: # Days: Average: YTD: 23,452 41,212 21,824 12,792 4,639,022 2,838,053 2,045,319 49,702 1,494,206 1,257,455 1,890,717 Number of hours sampled: - No data available or no sample conducted

16 FISH PASSAGE CENTER Date 10/2/2018 3:16:58 PM Smolt Monitoring Program Two Week Passage Index Report Page 2 of 7 COMBINED SUBYEARLING Date WTB (Coll) IMN (Coll) GRN (Coll) LEW (Coll) LGR (Index) LGS (Index) LMN (Index) RIS (Index) MCN (Index) JDA (Index) BO2 (Index) 09/18/ /19/ /20/ /21/ /22/ /23/ /24/ /25/ /26/ /27/ /28/ /29/ /30/ /01/ /02/ Total: ,210 # Days: Average: YTD: , , ,504 36,289 2,289,265 1,068,593 2,883,586 Number of hours sampled: - No data available or no sample conducted

17 FISH PASSAGE CENTER Date 10/2/2018 3:16:58 PM Smolt Monitoring Program Two Week Passage Index Report Page 3 of 7 COMBINED Date WTB (Coll) IMN (Coll) GRN (Coll) LEW (Coll) LGR (Index) LGS (Index) LMN (Index) RIS (Index) MCN (Index) JDA (Index) BO2 (Index) 09/18/ /19/ /20/ /21/ /22/ /23/ /24/ /25/ /26/ /27/ /28/ /29/ /30/ /01/ /02/ Total: # Days: Average: YTD: 0 0 1,224 1, , ,275 42,479 44, , , ,487 Number of hours sampled: - No data available or no sample conducted

18 FISH PASSAGE CENTER Date 10/2/2018 3:16:58 PM Smolt Monitoring Program Two Week Passage Index Report Page 4 of 7 COMBINED Date WTB (Coll) IMN (Coll) GRN (Coll) LEW (Coll) LGR (Index) LGS (Index) LMN (Index) RIS (Index) MCN (Index) JDA (Index) BO2 (Index) 09/18/ /19/ /20/ /21/ /22/ /23/ /24/ /25/ /26/ /27/ /28/ /29/ /30/ /01/ /02/ Total: # Days: Average: YTD: ,446 3,888 5,328 3,924,768 3,004,340 1,942,824 24, , , ,557 Number of hours sampled: - No data available or no sample conducted

19 FISH PASSAGE CENTER Date 10/2/2018 3:16:58 PM Smolt Monitoring Program Two Week Passage Index Report Page 5 of 7 COMBINED SOCKEYE Date WTB (Coll) IMN (Coll) GRN (Coll) LEW (Coll) LGR (Index) LGS (Index) LMN (Index) RIS (Index) MCN (Index) JDA (Index) BO2 (Index) 09/18/ /19/ /20/ /21/ /22/ /23/ /24/ /25/ /26/ /27/ /28/ /29/ /30/ /01/ /02/ Total: # Days: Average: YTD: , ,870 58,625 76,238 1,527, , ,306 Number of hours sampled: - No data available or no sample conducted

20 FISH PASSAGE CENTER Date 10/2/2018 3:16:58 PM Smolt Monitoring Program Two Week Passage Index Report Page 6 of 7 COMBINED LAMPREY JUVENILES Date WTB (Coll) IMN (Coll) GRN (Coll) LEW (Coll) LGR* (Sample) LGS (Coll) LMN (Coll) RIS (Coll) MCN (Coll) JDA (Coll) BO2 (Coll) 09/18/ /19/ /20/ /21/ /22/ /23/ /24/ /25/ /26/ /27/ /28/ /29/ /30/ /01/ /02/ Total: # Days: Average: YTD: ,095 56, , ,728 27,329 * - No data available or no sample conducted - Juvenile lamprey can escape the sample tank at LGR which would lead to unreliable estimates of collection.therefore, only sample counts are provided in this report. Number of hours sampled:

21 FISH PASSAGE CENTER Date 10/2/2018 3:16:58 PM Smolt Monitoring Program Two Week Passage Index Report Page 7 of 7 Smolt Minitoring Program Sites and Agency Collaborations: WTB (Collection) - Salmon River Trap at Whitebird : Collection Counts IMN (Collection) - Imnaha River Trap : Collection Counts GRN (Collection) - Grande Ronde River Trap : Collection Counts LEW (Collection) = Snake River Trap at Lewiston : Collection Counts LGR (Index) - Lower Granite Dam Bypass Collection System : Passage Index Counts LGS (Index) - Little Goose Bypass Collection System : Passage Index Counts LMN (Index) - Lower Monumental Dam Bypass Collection System : Passage Index Counts RIS (Index) - Rock Island Dam Second Powerhouse Bypass Trap : Passage Index Counts MCN (Index) - McNary Dam Bypass Collection System : Passage Index Counts JDA (Index) - John Day Dam Bypass Collection System : Passage Index Counts BO2 (Index) - Bonneville Dam Second Powerhouse Bypass Collection System : Passage Index Counts - No data available or no sample conducted Number of hours sampled: Important Information About this Report: - For clip information see: - Three classes of fish counts are shown in these tables: Sample counts (Samp) are provided for juvenile lamprey at LGR. See note below for details. Collection counts (Coll), which account for sample rates but are not adjusted for flow; Passage indices (INDEX), which are collection counts divided by the proportion of water passing through the sampled powerhouse. Passage indices are not population estimates, but are used to adjust collection counts for daily fluctuations in the site's or project's operations. Equations for passage index are provided below for each site. LGR, LGS, LMN, MCN, JDA (Index) = Lower Granite Dam Bypass Collection System : Passage Index Counts Passage Index = Collection Counts / (Powerhouse Flow / (Powerhouse Flow + Spill)) RIS, BO2 (Index) = Rock Island Dam Second Powerhouse Bypass Trap : Passage Index Counts Passage Index = Collection Counts / (Powerhouse 2 Flow / (Powerhouse 1 & 2 Flow + Spill)) - Combined lamprey juvenile collection counts are provided for all sites. Combined lamprey juveniles is a combination of pacific lamprey ammocoetes, brook lamprey ammocoetes, unknown lamprey ammocoetes, pacific lamprey macropthalmia, and unidentified lamprey species. - Most samples occur over a 24-hr period that spans two calendar days. In this report, the date shown corresponds with the sample end date.

22 Water Year 2018 Precipitation Monthly Clim Norm Monthly Seasonal Temp. (degf) Sept 1-30 (Oct. 1 - now) (pro-rated) Portland 108% 83% -0.1 UPPER-COLUMBIA: Kamloops 172% 127% -3.2 Revelstoke 316% 88% -1.3 Cranbrook 125% 108% -2.2 Creston 73% 86% 0.0 average: 171% 102% -1.7 Normal: MIDDLE-COLUMBIA: Pendleton 0% 85% -2 Redmond 10% 52% -1 Yakima 3% 63% -1.1 Wenatchee AP 3% 94% -1.5 Omak 9% 86% -1 Spokane 29% 106% -0.6 average: 9% 81% -1.2 Normal: LOWER SNAKE: Lewiston 6% 124% -1 Pullman 3% 123% -1.4 Stanley 18% 119% 1.3 Challis 18% 59% 3.3 average: 11% 106% 0.6 Normal: UPPER and MIDDLE SNAKE: McCall 18% 111% 3 Ontario 5% 69% 1.5 Boise 0% 89% 0.7 Twin Falls 0% 71% 0.2 Burley 2% 80% 3.9 Pocatello 0% 74% 1.2 Idaho Falls 0% 103% 1.2 average: 4% 85% 1.7 Normal: Air Temperature forecast (NOAA- NWS Forecast) Clarkston, WA Low High 2-Oct 71 3-Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct "normal" 46 71

23 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE Northwest Fisheries Science Center Fish Ecology Division 2725 Montlake Boulevard East Seattle, WA (206) September 19, 2018 MEMORANDUM FOR: F/NWR5 Ritchie Graves FROM: SUBJECT: F/NWC3 - Richard W. Zabel Preliminary survival estimates for the passage of spring-migrating juvenile salmonids through Snake and Columbia River dams and reservoirs, 2018 This memorandum summarizes conditions in the Snake and Columbia Rivers and preliminary estimates of survival of PIT-tagged juvenile salmonids passing through reservoirs and dams during the 2018 spring outmigration. We also provide preliminary estimates of the proportion of Snake River smolts that were transported from Snake River dams in Our complete detailed analyses and report for the spring migration will follow this memo at a later date. As in past years, changes in the database between the time of our annual summer memo and the publication of our final report may result in differences of up to 3 or 4% in estimated survival values. Summary of Research For survival studies funded by BPA in 2018, NOAA Fisheries PIT tagged 20,249 river-run hatchery steelhead, 15,396 wild steelhead, and 11,823 wild yearling Chinook salmon for release into the tailrace of Lower Granite Dam. Survival estimates provided in this memorandum are derived from data from fish PIT tagged by or for NOAA Fisheries, as described above, along with fish PIT tagged by others within the Columbia River Basin. Note that for technical reasons, the statistical model for survival estimation can produce estimates that exceed 100%. When this occurs, we report the actual estimate, but for practical purposes these estimates should be interpreted as

24 representing survival probabilities which are less than or equal to 100%. We have estimated survival probabilities for migrating PITtagged salmonids since In this memo, we compare 2018 estimates in various river segments to averages over periods of years. Estimates are not available for every reach in every year. Unless otherwise noted, when we refer to a long-term average for a particular river segment, the average is across all years for which estimates are available. PIT-tagged yearling Chinook salmon have been released from the seven Snake River Basin hatcheries Dworshak, Kooskia, Lookingglass/Imnaha Weir, Rapid River, McCall/Knox Bridge, Pahsimeroi, and Sawtooth every year from 1993 through 2018 (except Pahsimeroi in 1996). Across these index hatcheries, the annual mean estimated survival from release to Lower Granite Dam has been relatively stable since 1998 (Figure 1, Table 1). In 2018, the mean was 64.8%; this estimate is close to last year s mean survival to Lower Granite of 65.0% and the overall mean from 1998 through 2018 of 65.1%. The annual mean has ranged from 49.4% in 1997 to 71.7% in 2016 (Figure 1). Downstream of Lower Granite Dam, mean estimated survival for Snake River yearling Chinook salmon (hatchery and wild combined) in 2018 was slightly above average in the Lower Granite to Little Goose and the Lower Monumental to McNary reaches, and close to average in the Little Goose to Lower Monumental reach (Table 2, Figure 2). However, estimated survival in the McNary to John Day and John Day to Bonneville reaches was substantially lower than average (Table 2, Figure 3). These estimates resulted in average survival from Lower Granite to McNary, but below average survival in the remaining combined reaches of interest (Table 3). Mean estimated survival for yearling Chinook salmon from Lower Granite Dam tailrace to McNary Dam tailrace in 2018 was 73.3% (95% CI: %). Mean estimated survival from McNary Dam tailrace to Bonneville Dam tailrace was 59.0% ( %). Mean estimated survival for yearling Chinook salmon from Lower Granite Dam tailrace to Bonneville Dam tailrace was 43.2% (36.2-

25 50.3%). Estimated survival for the Lower Granite project (head of reservoir to tailrace) was 88.0%, based on fish PIT tagged at and released from the Snake River trap. The combined yearling Chinook salmon survival estimate from the Snake River trap to Bonneville Dam tailrace was 38.1% ( %), substantially below the long-term average of 48.9%. For wild Snake River yearling Chinook, mean estimated survival from Lower Granite Dam tailrace to McNary Dam tailrace was 76.0% (95% CI: %), and from McNary Dam tailrace to Bonneville Dam tailrace was 76.2% ( %). Estimated survival from the Snake River trap to Lower Granite Dam tailrace was 87.1%, which resulted in estimated survival from the Snake River trap to Bonneville Dam tailrace of 50.4% ( %). This estimate is above the long-term average of 44.8%. For Snake River steelhead (hatchery and wild combined), mean estimated survival in 2018 was above average in every individual reach and all resulting combined reaches, though the estimate for the John Day to Bonneville reach was very uncertain (Table 4, Figures 2 and 3). Mean estimated survival for steelhead from Lower Granite Dam tailrace to McNary Dam tailrace was 73.3% (95% CI: %). Mean estimated survival from McNary Dam tailrace to Bonneville Dam tailrace was 72.7% ( %). The combined Snake River steelhead survival estimate from the Snake River trap to Bonneville Dam tailrace was 52.4% ( %), which was above the long-term average of 45.6% (Table 5). For wild Snake River steelhead, mean estimated survival from Lower Granite Dam tailrace to McNary Dam tailrace was 73.6% (95% CI: %), and from McNary Dam tailrace to Bonneville Dam tailrace was 82.2% ( %). Estimated survival from the Snake River trap to Lower Granite Dam tailrace was 84.8%, which resulted in estimated survival from the Snake River trap to Bonneville Dam tailrace of 51.3% ( %). For PIT-tagged hatchery yearling Chinook salmon originating from the upper Columbia River in 2018, estimated survival from McNary Dam tailrace to Bonneville Dam tailrace was 74.9% (95% CI: %; Table 6), which was below the long-term average of 81.4%.

26 For PIT-tagged hatchery steelhead originating from the upper Columbia River in 2018, estimated survival from McNary Dam tailrace to Bonneville Dam tailrace was 116.1% (95% CI: %; Table 6). This estimate has high uncertainty; however, unlike Columbia River Chinook, even the low end of the confidence range is above the long-term average of 77.4%. For fish released from upper Columbia River hatcheries, we cannot estimate survival in reaches upstream from McNary Dam (other than the overall reach from release to McNary Dam tailrace) because of limited PIT-tag detection capabilities at Mid-Columbia River PUD dams. Estimated survival in 2018 of Snake River sockeye salmon (hatchery and wild combined) from the tailrace of Lower Granite Dam to the tailrace of Bonneville Dam was 64.3% (95% CI: %; Table 7). Estimated survival in 2018 of Columbia River sockeye salmon (hatchery and wild combined) from the tailrace of Rock Island Dam to the tailrace of Bonneville Dam was 66.7% (40.7%-61.5%; Table 7). Both estimates were above their respective long-term averages of 40.6% and 51.1%. Our preliminary estimates of the percentage transported of nontagged wild and hatchery spring-summer Chinook salmon smolts in 2018 are 44.1% and 45.4%, respectively. For steelhead, the estimates are 47.5% and 46.4% for wild and hatchery smolts, respectively. These estimates represent the percentage of smolts that arrived at Lower Granite Dam that were subsequently transported, either from Lower Granite Dam or downstream at Little Goose or Lower Monumental Dam. Discussion For Snake River yearling Chinook salmon in 2018, estimated survival from Lower Granite Dam tailrace to Bonneville Dam tailrace was 43.2%; this estimate is substantially below the long-term ( ) average of 52.1%. Yearling Chinook survival through the hydropower system has been consistently

27 below the mean for the past four years, despite a range of different environmental conditions within these years. These low system survival estimates seem to be driven mostly by poor survival in the McNary to Bonneville reach. For Snake River steelhead in 2018, estimated survival from Lower Granite Dam tailrace to Bonneville Dam tailrace was 53.3%; above the long-term mean of 47.0% (Table 5). This above-average estimate follows three consecutive years of survival estimates below the mean. Estimated survival of Snake River sockeye between Lower Granite Dam and Bonneville Dam tailrace was 64.3%, which is the third highest estimate we have in our time series ( ). The component survival estimates for the Lower Granite Dam to McNary Dam reach and the McNary Dam to Bonneville Dam reach were both above average. This above-average estimate follows three consecutive years with very low survival. The Idaho Department of Fish and Game has adjusted their acclimation methods this year in order to address the causes of the low Snake River Sockeye survival from the past three years; their efforts almost certainly contributed to the higher survival estimate this year. Survival of juvenile Upper Columbia River sockeye in the McNary to Bonneville Dam reach was also above average. Environmental conditions in 2018 resulted in a year with average water temperatures, but high flow and very high spill for most of the migration season. Mean flow at Little Goose Dam in 2018 during the main migration period (1 April 15 June) was kcfs, which was well above the long-term ( ) mean of 92.6 kcfs. Daily flow values were above long-term daily means for most of the migration period; daily flow approached the mean for a brief period in early May and fell below the mean after the beginning of June (Figure 4). Mean water temperature at Little Goose Dam in 2018 during the migration period was 11.5 C, which was near the long-term mean of 11.2 C. Daily water temperatures generally tracked the long-term daily mean, alternating between slightly above and slightly below the mean through April and May, then remaining slightly above the longterm mean during June (Figure 4).

28 Mean spill discharge at the Snake River dams during the 2018 migration was 41.3 kcfs, which was substantially above the longterm ( ) mean of 27.7 kcfs. Daily spill discharges remained above the long-term daily mean throughout April and May, with peaks in early May and again near the end of May (Figure 5). Spill as a percentage of flow at Snake River dams averaged 37.2% in 2018, which was above the long-term ( ) mean of Daily mean spill percentages in 2018 were above the long-term daily means for almost the entire migration period (Figure 5), with higher percent spill during early April than in any previous year. Estimated percentages of yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead transported from Snake River dams in 2018 were substantially higher than in most recent years; 2018 saw one of the highest transportation rates since 2006 (Figure 7). This reversed the recent trend of very low transportation rates seen from In 2018, collection of transportation began on 23 April at Lower Granite, Little Goose, and Lower Monumental Dams, which was 8 days earlier than the May 1 st start date from most recent years, and the earliest start date for the transportation program since We estimate that 45% of the annual total passage of wild yearling Chinook and 24% of hatchery yearling Chinook occurred at Lower Granite Dam before transportation began (Figure 6), compared to averages between of 42% and 31%, respectively. It is worth noting that the percentages passing in 2018 are near average, despite the fact that transportation began earlier in 2018 than in any year in that period except We estimate that 38% of wild steelhead arrived before transportation began in 2018 (Figure 6), versus the average of 29%, and 24% of hatchery steelhead versus the average of 33%. After the beginning of transportation in 2018, higher-thanaverage proportions of smolts were collected for transportation. This was due to the combination of spill operations and river conditions experienced by the fish as they passed the collector

29 dams. The combination of early transportation start date and relatively higher collection proportions during transportation resulted in the increased percentages of smolts transported in Median estimated travel times for both species between Lower Granite Dam and Bonneville Dam in April in 2018 continued the trend from recent years and were substantially shorter than the long-term mean for most of the migration period ( ; Figure 8). These short travel times coincided with the generally high flows and spills in When flow levels declined at the beginning of June, travel times converged with the mean of recent years. Since the institution of court-ordered spill in 2006, and the concurrent installation of surface collectors at four additional federal dams during that period, travel times have decreased on average between Lower Granite and Bonneville dams for steelhead, but the effect is less apparent for Chinook (Figure 8). Differences in travel times for low-flow years versus other years are not so well pronounced for either species (Figure 8). Day in season is a stronger predictor of travel time for Chinook than either flow or spill. Some of the lowest flow years were also low-spill years that occurred before the new spill regime, so the effect of average flow on travel time is difficult to separate from that of spill by simply inspecting the figures without the assistance of a statistical model. Flow and spill also vary within season, so categorizing years by seasonal averages is not optimal, but it does allow for some simple visual comparisons. cc: F/NWC3 Faulkner F/NWC3 Marsh F/NWC3 Smith F/NWC3 Widener F/NWC3 Zabel

30 Table 1. Estimated survival and standard error (s.e.) for yearling Chinook salmon released at Snake River Basin and Upper Columbia River hatcheries to Lower Granite Dam tailrace (LGR) and McNary Dam tailrace (MCN), 2016 through a Hatchery Survival to LGR (s.e.) Survival to MCN (s.e.) Survival to LGR (s.e.) Survival to MCN (s.e.) Survival to LGR (s.e.) Survival to MCN (s.e.) Dworshak (0.007) (0.014) (0.013) (0.015) (0.015) (0.023) Kooskia (0.012) (0.029) (0.025) (0.040) (0.030) (0.044) Lookingglass (Catherine Cr.) (0.005) (0.016) (0.014) (0.024) (0.008) (0.024) Lookingglass (Grande Ronde) (0.016) (0.044) (0.032) (0.096) (0.013) (0.043) Lookingglass (Imnaha River) (0.007) (0.022) (0.020) (0.041) (0.012) (0.034) Lookingglass (Lostine River) (0.017) (0.039) (0.029) (0.067) (0.014) (0.057) McCall (Johnson Cr.) (0.029) (0.104) McCall (Knox Bridge) (0.006) (0.014) (0.012) (0.021) (0.011) (0.026) Pahsimeroi (0.008) (0.026) (0.012) (0.041) (0.015) (0.034) Rapid River (0.005) (0.015) (0.010) (0.020) (0.009) (0.023) Sawtooth (0.006) (0.015) (0.010) (0.025) (0.013) (0.029) Entiat (0.024) (0.040) (0.037) Winthrop (0.022) (0.031) (0.046) Leavenworth (0.016) (0.022) (0.038) a. Estimates are preliminary and subject to change.

31 Table 2. Annual weighted means of survival probability estimates for yearling Chinook salmon (hatchery and wild combined), Standard errors in parentheses. Reaches with asterisks comprise two dams and reservoirs (i.e., two projects); the following column gives the square root (i.e., geometric mean) of the two project estimate to facilitate comparison with other single project estimates. Abbreviations: Trap Snake River Trap; LGR Lower Granite Dam; LGO Little Goose Dam; LMO Lower Monumental Dam; IHR Ice Harbor Dam; MCN McNary Dam; JDA John Day Dam; TDA The Dalles Dam; BON Bonneville Dam. Simple arithmetic means across all available years ( ) are given. Year Trap LGR LGR LGO LGO LMO LMO MCN* LMO IHR IHR MCN MCN JDA JDA BON* JDA TDA TDA BON (0.010) (0.004) (0.008) (0.038) NA NA NA (0.025) (0.006) (0.011) (0.033) NA NA NA 1997 NA (0.018) (0.042) (0.091) NA NA NA (0.009) (0.006) (0.009) (0.011) (0.033) NA NA (0.009) (0.002) (0.004) (0.007) (0.027) (0.065) (0.014) (0.006) (0.009) (0.016) (0.054) (0.128) (0.015) (0.004) (0.006) (0.007) (0.024) (0.034) (0.022) (0.006) (0.008) (0.013) (0.014) (0.079) (0.023) (0.005) (0.011) (0.017) (0.017) (0.036) (0.009) (0.004) (0.012) (0.018) (0.028) (0.092) (0.015) (0.003) (0.006) (0.010) (0.029) (0.132) (0.011) (0.003) (0.004) (0.008) (0.020) ( (0.028) (0.006) (0.010) (0.012) (0.016) (0.043) (0.018) (0.006) (0.011) (0.016) (0.058) (0.082) (0.010) (0.006) (0.009) (0.011) (0.042) (0.043) (0.040) (0.011) (0.019) (0.017) (0.021) (0.039) (0.009) (0.007) (0.008) (0.012) (0.026) (0.080) (0.012) (0.009) (0.010) (0.016) (0.023) (0.058) (0.031) (0.012) (0.014) (0.022) (0.058) (0.043) (0.015) (0.007) (0.010) (0.017) (0.053) (0.104) (0.103) (0.036) (0.057) (0.033) (0.069) (0.160) (0.015) (0.006) (0.100) (0.013) (0.039) (0.047) NA (0.009) (0.013) (0.024) (0.041) (0.200) a (0.022) (0.013) (0.019) (0.036) (0.074) (0.100) Mean b (0.008) (0.006) (0.009) (0.011) (0.006) (0.019) (0.024) (0.014) a. Estimates are preliminary and subject to change. b. For each river segment, simple arithmetic mean is across all years for which estimates are available for that segment. Annual estimates for 1993 and 1994 are omitted from the table for space.

32 Table 3. Hydropower system survival estimates derived by combining empirical survival estimates from various reaches for Snake River yearling Chinook salmon (hatchery and wild combined), Standard errors in parentheses. Abbreviations: Trap Snake River Trap; LGR Lower Granite Dam; MCN McNary Dam; BON Bonneville Dam. Year Trap LGR LGR-MCN MCN-BON LGR BON Trap BON 1997 NA (0.072) NA NA NA (0.011) (0.009) NA NA NA (0.009) (0.006) (0.058) (0.046) (0.043) (0.014) (0.012) (0.122) (0.093) (0.087) (0.015) (0.009) (0.027) (0.016) (0.016) (0.022) (0.009) (0.079) (0.060) (0.059) (0.023) (0.010) (0.030) (0.023) (0.026) (0.009) (0.011) (0.074) (0.050) (0.045) (0.015) (0.009) (0.093) (0.068) (0.063) (0.011) (0.007) (0.021) (0.017) (0.018) (0.028) (0.006) (0.044) (0.035) (0.037) (0.018) (0.011) (0.066) (0.052) (0.052) (0.010) (0.007) (0.031) (0.025) (0.025) (0.040) (0.012) (0.039) (0.032) (0.038) (0.009) (0.010) (0.065) (0.049) (0.046) (0.012) (0.016) (0.051) (0.042) (0.040) (0.031) (0.016) (0.071) (0.052) (0.048) (0.015) (0.015) (0.107) (0.083) (0.075) (0.103) (0.035) (0.043) (0.037) (0.055) (0.015) (0.011) (0.060) (0.046) (0.043) 2017 NA (0.019) (0.157) (0.117) NA 2018 a (0.022) (0.025) (0.045) (0.036) (0.033) Mean b (0.008) (0.012) (0.019) (0.020) (0.020) a. Estimates are preliminary and subject to change. b. For each river segment, simple arithmetic mean is across all years for which estimates are available for that segment. Annual estimates for are omitted from the table for space.

33 Table 4. Annual weighted means of survival probability estimates for steelhead (hatchery and wild combined), Standard errors in parentheses. Reaches with asterisks comprise two dams and reservoirs (i.e., two projects); the following column gives the square root (i.e., geometric mean) of the two project estimate to facilitate comparison with other single project estimates. Abbreviations: Trap Snake River Trap; LGR Lower Granite Dam; LGO Little Goose Dam; LMO Lower Monumental Dam; IHR Ice Harbor Dam; MCN McNary Dam; JDA John Day Dam; TDA The Dalles Dam; BON Bonneville Dam. Simple arithmetic means across all available years ( ) are given. Year Trap LGR LGR LGO LGO LMO LMO MCN* LMO IHR IHR MCN MCN JDA JDA BON* JDA TDA TDA BON (0.008) (0.005) (0.011) (0.076) NA NA NA (0.015) (0.008) (0.014) (0.052) NA NA NA (0.015) (0.006) (0.020) (0.065) NA NA NA (0.009) (0.004) (0.006) (0.018) (0.031) (0.103) (0.011) (0.004) (0.006) (0.011) (0.033) (0.039) (0.013) (0.006) (0.009) (0.016) (0.045) (0.045) (0.007) (0.010) (0.008) (0.010) (0.025) (0.063) (0.015) (0.011) (0.018) (0.031) (0.063) (0.098) (0.015) (0.005) (0.012) (0.018) (0.032) (0.066) (0.004) (0.006) (0.014) (0.035) (0.078) NA NA (0.004) (0.004) (0.009) (0.023) (0.040) NA NA (0.013) (0.004) (0.006) (0.017) (0.045) (0.083) (0.026) (0.009) (0.022) (0.030) (0.098) (0.059) (0.018) (0.007) (0.014) (0.017) (0.066) (0.045) (0.011) (0.005) (0.008) (0.014) (0.026) (0.079) (0.030) (0.028) (0.044) (0.032) (0.051) (0.038) (0.017) (0.004) (0.010) (0.014) (0.043) (0.051) (0.026) (0.006) (0.011) (0.022) (0.048) (0.148) (0.032) (0.020) (0.020) (0.031) (0.025) (0.154) (0.028) (0.009) (0.024) (0.032) (0.080) (0.147) (0.046) (0.039) (0.060) (0.073) (0.066) (0.050) (0.016) (0.007) (0.016) (0.025) (0.074) (0.071) NA (0.008) (0.015) (0.022) (0.020) (0.040) a (0.025) (0.007) (0.016) (0.036) (0.068) (0.137) Mean b (0.011) (0.010) (0.012) (0.027) (0.018) (0.038) (0.032) (0.018) a. Estimates are preliminary and subject to change. b. For each river segment, simple arithmetic mean is across all years for which estimates are available for that segment. Annual estimates for 1993 and 1994 are omitted from the table for space.

34 Table 5. Hydropower system survival estimates derived by combining empirical survival estimates from various reaches for Snake River steelhead (hatchery and wild combined), Standard errors in parentheses. Abbreviations: Trap Snake River Trap; LGR Lower Granite Dam; MCN McNary Dam; BON Bonneville Dam. Year Trap LGR LGR-MCN MCN-BON LGR BON Trap BON (0.015) (0.053) (0.082) (0.069) (0.067) (0.009) (0.013) (0.081) (0.054) (0.050) (0.011) (0.010) (0.024) (0.018) (0.017) (0.013) (0.016) (0.040) (0.034) (0.033) (0.007) (0.006) (0.016) (0.003) (0.003) (0.015) (0.025) (0.090) (0.050) (0.045) (0.015) (0.013) (0.015) (0.011) (0.012) (0.004) (0.023) NA NA NA (0.004) (0.018) NA NA NA (0.013) (0.016) (0.079) (0.056) (0.052) (0.026) (0.020) (0.064) (0.045) (0.047) (0.018) (0.015) (0.034) (0.027) (0.028) (0.011) (0.013) (0.074) (0.059) (0.060) (0.030) (0.020) (0.027) (0.026) (0.032) (0.017) (0.013) (0.038) (0.029) (0.030) (0.026) (0.020) (0.196) (0.138) (0.139) (0.032) (0.026) (0.112) (0.075) (0.075) (0.028) (0.021) (0.088) (0.069) (0.073) (0.046) (0.033) (0.039) (0.033) (0.034) (0.016) (0.020) (0.040) (0.032) (0.032) 2017 NA (0.019) (0.037) (0.030) NA 2018 a (0.025) (0.031) (0.112) (0.085) (0.085) Mean b (0.011) (0.028) (0.038) (0.035) (0.038) a. Estimates are preliminary and subject to change. b. For each river segment, simple arithmetic mean is across all years for which estimates are available for that segment. Annual estimates for are omitted for space.

35 Table 6. Estimated survival and standard error (s.e.) through reaches of the lower Columbia River hydropower system for hatchery yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead originating in the upper Columbia River, Abbreviations: Rel Release site; MCN McNary Dam; JDA John Day Dam; BON Bonneville Dam. Yearling Chinook Salmon Steelhead Year Rel MCN MCN-JDA JDA-BON MCN BON Rel MCN MCN-JDA JDA-BON MCN BON (0.014) (0.044) (0.129) (0.113) NA NA NA NA (0.025) (0.094) NA NA NA NA NA NA (0.009) (0.062) NA NA NA NA NA NA (0.003) (0.011) (0.048) (0.041) NA NA NA NA (0.003) (0.008) (0.035) (0.031) (0.004) (0.012) (0.036) (0.036) (0.005) (0.019) (0.049) (0.038) (0.005) (0.021) (0.112) (0.088) (0.012) (0.042) NA NA (0.004) (0.017) (0.071) (0.057) (0.011) (0.051) (0.211) (0.198) (0.008) (0.026) (0.169) (0.134) (0.009) (0.028) (0.091) (0.080) (0.016) (0.064) (0.068) (0.059) (0.019) (0.085) (0.114) (0.133) (0.015) NA NA NA (0.013) (0.044) (0.143) (0.116) (0.018) (0.048) (0.133) (0.105) (0.014) (0.040) (0.046) (0.037) (0.017) (0.054) (0.038) (0.033) (0.010) (0.047) (0.077) (0.077) (0.012) (0.064) (0.101) (0.119) (0.012) (0.035) (0.142) (0.115) (0.011) (0.047) (0.186) (0.159) (0.013) (0.050) (0.129) (0.117) (0.020) (0.071) (0.104) (0.099) (0.013) (0.047) (0.122) (0.114) (0.043) (0.124) (0.153) (0.130) (0.015) (0.043) (0.081) (0.062) (0.019) (0.084) (0.073) (0.043) (0.009) (0.027) (0.068) (0.055) (0.011) (0.037) (0.046) (0.032) (0.013) (0.030) (0.142) (0.120) (0.025) (0.062) (0.210) (0.188) 2018 a (0.016) (0.044) (0.096) (0.084) (0.021) (0.062) (0.194) (0.186) Mean b (0.012) (0.022) (0.042) (0.031) (0.014) (0.029) (0.057) (0.050) a. Estimates are preliminary and subject to change. b. For each river segment, simple arithmetic mean is across all years for which estimates are available for that segment.

36 Table 7. Estimated survival and standard error (s.e.) for sockeye salmon (hatchery and wild combined) from Lower Granite Dam tailrace to Bonneville Dam tailrace for fish originating in the Snake River, and from Rock Island Dam tailrace to Bonneville Dam tailrace for fish originating in the upper Columbia River, Note that this table represents all available data on sockeye; estimates are provided regardless of the precision, which in some years was very poor. Abbreviations: LGR Lower Granite Dam; MCN McNary Dam; BON Bonneville Dam; RIS Rock Island Dam. Snake River Sockeye Upper Columbia River Sockeye Year LGR-MCN MCN-BON LGR-BON RIS-MCN MCN-BON RIS-BON (0.184) NA NA NA NA NA 1997 NA NA NA (0.119) NA NA (0.157) (0.099) (0.090) (0.058) (1.617) (1.003) (0.083) (0.584) (0.363) (0.029) (0.177) (0.097) (0.110) (0.110) (0.080) (0.114) (0.867) (0.410) (0.063) (0.050) (0.005) (0.117) NA NA (0.062) (0.432) (0.212) (0.044) (0.110) (0.057) (0.054) (0.144) (0.098) NA NA NA (0.254) NA NA (0.114) (1.218) (0.777) (0.078) NA NA (0.140) (0.209) (0.147) (0.083) (0.652) (0.454) (0.062) (0.243) (0.187) (0.066) (0.084) (0.073) (0.046) (0.296) (0.183) (0.103) (0.262) (0.179) (0.094) (0.363) (0.225) (0.032) (0.101) (0.073) (0.076) (0.405) (0.338) (0.039) (0.098) (0.077) (0.063) (0.152) (0.111) (0.033) NA NA (0.088) (0.676) (0.498) (0.032) (0.084) (0.062) (0.085) (0.405) (0.376) (0.043) (0.106) (0.066) (0.068) (0.217) (0.155) (0.054) (0.115) (0.096) (0.056) (0.269) (0.111) (0.054) (0.151) (0.037) (0.182) (0.200) (0.130) (0.047) (0.059) (0.030) (0.082) (0.126) (0.144) (0.081) (0.107) (0.055) (0.113) (0.181) (0.332) 2018 a (0.061) (0.151) (0.088) (0.112) (0.095) (0.144) Mean b (0.034) (0.070) (0.052) (0.031) (0.074) (0.053) a. Estimates are preliminary and subject to change. b. For each river segment, simple arithmetic mean is across all years for which estimates are available for that segment.

37 Figure 1. Annual average survival estimates from release to Lower Granite Dam for PIT-tagged yearling Chinook salmon released from Snake River Basin hatcheries, Hatcheries used for average (index groups) are those with consistent PITtag releases through the series of years shown. Vertical bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Horizontal dashed lines are the 2018 confidence interval endpoints and are shown for comparison to other years.

38 Figure 2. Annual average survival estimates for PIT-tagged yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead, hatchery and wild fish combined. Vertical bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Horizontal dashed lines are 95% confidence interval endpoints for 2018 estimates.

39 Figure 3. Annual average survival estimates for PIT-tagged yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead, hatchery and wild fish combined. Vertical bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Horizontal dashed lines are 95% confidence interval endpoints for 2018 estimates.

40 Figure 4. Snake River flow (kcfs; top panel) and water temperature ( o C; bottom panel) measured at Little Goose Dam during April and May, , including daily long-term means ( ).

41 Figure 5. Mean spill (top panel shows kcfs; bottom panel shows percentage of total flow) at Snake River dams during April and May, , including daily long-term means ( ).

42 Figure 6. Smolt index as daily percentage of total passage at Lower Granite Dam for hatchery and wild combined yearling Chinook and steelhead.

43 Figure 7. Estimated percent of yearling Chinook salmon and steelhead (hatchery and wild combined) transported to below Bonneville Dam by year ( ).