The Russian Automotive Industry in 2009 and Beyond. Vassil Stavrev Senior Market Analyst

Transcription

1 The Russian Automotive Industry in 29 and Beyond Vassil Stavrev Senior Market Analyst

2 Presentation Structure Evolution of Forecast Car Parc and Density Long-term Market Forecast Market and Industry Framework Macroeconomic Assumptions Market Impact of the Financial Crisis Outlook on Market Composition Industry Potential Used Cars Market Mid-term Market Outlook

3 Evolution of Parc and Car Density Car Parc (mn units) Car Density (cars per 1, population) Car Density (cars per 1, population) Car Parc 28: Total: 32 Million Average age: 12 years More than 5% older than 1 years Lifespan of traditional Russian cars limited Tausende PARC (LHS) Ownership (RHS)

4 Light Vehicles Market Thousands 4, 3, In 28 Russia was 2nd largest car market in the Europe CAR LCV 2, 1,

5 Ratio of New Car Sales to Number of Higher- Income Households Ratio of Total Car Sales to Households with $2K Income (or more) (e.g. 1% of all households with > 2k income buy a new car each year) 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% Russia Brazil India China Euro BIG 5 5% %

6 Market & Industry Framework Market Drivers Industry Incentive programs re-opened (e.g. 166 & 566) Loan Financing Support & Incentives Used Imports Limitations Global Crisis & Bursting of the Commodity Bubble Credit Cost & Lacking Availability Higher Import Tariffs & RBL Depreciation Market Restraints

7 Surging Commodity Prices as a Triggering Factor for Growth GDP Growth (% y-y%) Per Capita GDP (U.S.$, nominal) 9,37 11,826 8,544 8,79 8 CPI (% y-y%) Private consumption (% y-y) Exchange rate (RBL/U.S.$) Exchange rate (RBL/ ) Unemployment Retail Trade Growth (% y-y) GDP per capita, US$ (LHS) Oil price, US$ (RHS)

8 Oil Price and Exchange Rates Q Q Q4 28 Q3 28 Urals, US$/BARR. GDP Growth Break-even Q1 211 Q3 21 Q2 21 Q1 21 Q4 29 Q3 29 Q2 29 Q1 29 GDP expected to start growing again at Urals price of 5U.S.$/Barr. 29: GDP: -4.7% Exports: -36% Currency Reserves: -31% Q4 28 Q3 28 Q2 28 Q LCU/US$ Q4 21 Q3 21 Q2 21 Q1 21 Q4 29 Q3 29 Q2 29 Q : CPI: +12.2% Real Incomes: -3.2% Imports: -28%

9 Silver Line in Sight? Oil Price Overshooting Forecasts in Q1 and Q2 Currency Stabilizing Contraction in Industry Slowing Down Positive Signals from the U.S. (Demand)

10 29: Credit Crunch as a Major Market Obstacle Car sales (th units) Car sales on credit (th units) Loan financing remains primarily in lower price-segments In the course of the credit crunch, high financing penetration turning into a major obstacle Government to subsidize financing rates (by up to 2/3 of the policy rate) of cheap cars (initially up to U.S.$1K, now $18K) OEMs to offer financing incentives through own banks Source: Raiffeisenbank, IHS Global Insight

11 Market Development by Price Segment Low-price segments (below U.S.$1K) are gradually losing ground New car sales by average transaction price bracket (in thousands of U.S.$) % of total sales The new middle-class (U.S.$1-15K) stabilizing Market share in % Take-off in the higher price segments (local production) 5 under $6K $6K $1K $1K 15K $15K 2K $2K 25K $25K 3K $3K 35K > $35 Source: ASM Holding

12 Russia: Number of HH by Income Bands (Nominal U.S.$) $ to 1K $1 to 2K $2 to 4K $4 to 6K $6 to 8K $8 to 1K $1 to 15K $15K and over

13 1998: Decree 135 Decree 166 was the Turning Point in Investment Legislation Failed to attract widespread investment Too hard to achieve localization levels 25 27: Decree 166 Reduced import tariffs on components (from 12.5% to -5%) Main conditions: 3% localization within 48 months; minimum output of 25, units Late 28: Due to a delay in WTO accession process decree 166 and 566 re-opened Import tariffs on major components for 166 contracts zeroed

14 Supplier Base Determines Car Industry Growth Challenges: Small output volumes by OEMs 2nd-tier supplier base missing Tausende Car production, excl. traditional Russian OEMs Infrastructure bottlenecks High import tariffs Local Content 5 1% Local Content 3 5% Opportunities: 4 High-potential market 2 New high-scale OEM manufacturing plans State incentives

15 Cost-Efficiency through Assembly Localization 28: price cuts for domestically assembled vehicles: VW Group: 5.2% to 12% Toyota: 9% 29: Local assembly as a competitive advantage keeping prices stable (imports to appreciate by 2-25%) Low local content depressing growth potential of domestics *(Price s in rbl) Local content 4% Car Price 8 Domestic Focus Imported 38 6% 66 25% cost increase due to rbl depreciation 44* Tariffs on import comp. cut by 2-3% Import content 58 Total price increase of 13% Car Price 9 44* 25% cost increase due to rbl depreciation Car Price 8 11 Tariffs on CBU increase by 5% 138 Total price increase of 31% Car Price 9

16 Implications for Car Production Russian Domestic s Existing International s New Entrants AvtoVAZ Production layoffs Output plan cut by 4% Government bail-out > US$5bn GAZ Siber discontinued Future of PC division uncertain Sollers Production layoffs Ssang Yong licences & equipment considered IZH Bond default Might be acquired by AvtoVAZ Ford Labor pressure continues Mondeo launch Stable output expected Renault VW GM Sandero to be launched 29 Less optimistic growth plans Output extended (e.g.tiguan, Touareg, Golf, CC, VWN) Cruze to be launched 21 Nissan Teana assembly launched; X-Trail to follow 21 A-Car project might be scrapped Hyundai Possible plant delay SKD import boost Suzuki Possible cancelation Mitsubishi 1yr delay of output (within the PSA JV)

17 Used Cars Market and Asian RHD Imports Tausende Tariffs increased; RHD imports banned Until 29, trade-in of used cars not regulated/permitted When re-selling a used vehicle, dealers were obliged to pay VAT on the residual value of the car; double VAT abolished now Tariffs on used imports increased by up to 1%; RHD imports might be banned Dealers increasing prices (already up 35 45%) 1 Total dependency of the eastern part of the country on RHD imports from Asia Potential for development of new car dealership networks / production sites (decree 166 extension)

18 Used Cars Market and Asian RHD Imports Police in Vladivostok ordered recently Japanese right-hand drive vehicles. Disassembling the vehicles is a new creative way to avoid higher import tariffs

19 Russian Car Market New Domestics Import Russian Brands GDP growth to slow to -4.7% Tariffs on CBU up to 3% Depreciation of the RBL Credit Crunch Imports down more than 5% New domestics ramping up production and increasing localization Demand recovering; output limited by shortage of localized components Low scale assembly; Influx of investment announcements; market growth import driven WTO? Import duties back to 25% Government to subsidies unable to prevent demand decay Euro IV expected 21; Lada Riva to be discontinued New domestic models

20 Conclusions The Russian market is forecast to return on a growth path from 21, in line with the economic development Forecast was downgraded across the board, as the market development will be delayed by the crisis (no immediate offset is expected in the near term) In the course of the crisis, some OEMs re-consider assembly plans Some of the existing operations of international OEMs are likely to be expanded New entrants might delay launch dates of their facilities Future output volumes will be constrained by availability of locally produced components International component producers are setting large facilities capable of supplying to multiple OEMs (e.g. Magna, Gestamp) More potential for joint ventures with local players evident New entrants might delay projects because of future output volume Traditional domestic OEMs will have more difficulties to recover from the crisis Investment in new models is constrained by difficult financial conditions Partnerships with external partners might eventually be brought forward

21 Thank You! Vassil Stavrev Senior Market Analyst