Managing Seasonal Hydrology with PV and Battery Storage in an Asian Country Case Study. PM TUSON, J De la Bat. Mott MacDonald.

Transcription

1 Managing Seasnal Hydrlgy with PV and Battery Strage in an Asian Cuntry Case Study PM TUSON, J De la Bat Mtt MacDnald Suth Africa Summary An Asian cuntry experiences hydr pwer spill in wet mnsn seasns and pwer shrtages f electricity in bth wet and dry seasns. It als has t imprt pwer frm surrunding cuntries in bth wet and dry seasns. This study analyses planned slar PV and PV/Battery Energy Strage (BES) slutins fr the cuntry. The benefits f the PV/BES slutins t the cuntry are listed. Key Wrds Battery Energy Strage Systems, Capital Cst ($/kw), Levelised Cst f Electricity (LCOE), Slar PV, Cst f Unserved Energy (CUE), peak replacement, capital deferral, energy security, diversificatin f energy supply Intrductin A landlcked Asian cuntry relies almst cmpletely n indigenus Run f River hydr (ROR) hydr pwer generatin, Independent Pwer Prducer (IPP) generatin and imprted pwer frm India.

2 DEMAND/SUPPLY(MW) DEMAND/SUPPLY(MW) The cuntry has a lw GDP and lw access t capital fr large infrastructure prjects. Large hydr prjects als have lng lead times and envirnmental challenges. A typical wet-seasn daily lad prfile is shwn in the figure belw shwing, base-lad RR IPP hydr pwer, utility base-lad RR hydr generatin, pwer imprts and lad-shedding. Daily Demand/Supply Curve HOURS IN DAY IPP Generatin RR Generatin Peak RR Strage Imprt PV Generatin Battery Strage Lad Shedding Demand [Surce: Mtt MacDnald] The dry-seasn daily lad prfile shws reduced IPP and utility base-lad hydr generatin, significant pwer imprts frm India and significant lad-shedding. Daily Demand/Supply Curve HOURS IN DAY IPP Generatin RR Generatin Peak RR Strage Imprt PV Generatin Battery Strage Lad Shedding Demand [Surce: Mtt MacDnald]

3 There are plans in place t remedy this situatin including new thermal and hydr IPP generatin, new utility hydr generatin and slar PV generatin with and withut BES. Slar PV and BES Generatin Slutins Benchmark BES Prices Benchmark BES capital csts ($/kw) were btained frm the Lazard Study Versin 3.0. Capital csts range frm $1,253/kW t $2,850/kW fr flw batteries and $1,166/kW t $1,700/kW fr Lithium-In batteries. [Surce: Lazard Reprt [1]] Benchmark BES Levelised Csts f Electricity (LCOE) ($/MWh) were btained frm the Lazard Study Versin 3.0. LCOE csts range frm $209/kWh t $413/kWh fr flw batteries and $268/MWh $347/MWh fr Lithium-In batteries. [Surce: Lazard Reprt [1]] Benefits f PV/BES Slutins fr the Asian cuntry Based n the abve demand prfiles, the fllwing benefits frm PV/BES generatin slutins are as fllws:

4 in the dry seasn, PV and Battery systems result in a direct reductin f lad shedding. in the wet seasn, the PV displaces imprted pwer and the batteries reduce lad shedding at peak LCOE f PV and BES Slutins A number f PV and PV/BES scenaris were evaluated. Slar PV increments f 150MW were cnsidered. BES increments f 30MW fr five hurs (150MWhs) were cnsidered. The LCOEs fr the different PV/BES cmbinatins range frm USc6.7/kWh fr PV nly t USc30.5/kWh fr Battery-nly slutins. Scenari Vanadium Flw Lithium In 150MW PV nly MW PV and 30MW Battery with additinal 30MW PV charging MW PV and 30MW Battery with NEA charging MW Battery with 30MW PV charging MW Battery with NEA charging Cst f Unserved Energy (CUE) and Annual Cst f Lad Shedding Cuntry GDP = USD21.14bn Annual energy cnsumptin = 8.8TWh COUE = GDP/Annual Energy Cnsumed = USD2.4/kWh Electricity shed annually = MWh Annual Cst f lad shedding = USD2.89bn CUE Savings frm PV/BES Slutins Based n a number f PV/BES slutins, the fllwing CUE savings are pssible: Scenari CUE saving (USD M) 150MW PV and 30MW Battery all year MW PV and 30MW Battery dry seasn nly MW Battery all year MW Battery dry seasn nly 66 Other benefits f PV/BES Slutins System security (reduced reliance n India imprts)

5 Utility peak replacement and related lss savings Capital deferral Lcal emplyment Diversificatin f energy supply Capacity building f engineering skills in the cuntry Self-sufficiency in electricity supply India Imprt Replacement India tariffs cmpared with 150MW PV and 30MW BES tariff India imprt tariffs 132kV imprt tariff = USc8.1/kWh 33kV imprt tariff = USc8.7/kWh 11kV imprt tariff = USc9.4/kWh India tariff currently cheaper by USD1.1m/annum India tariffs annual increase trajectry Utility Tariff Peak Replacement Utility tariffs cmpared with 150MW PV and 30MW BES tariff Utility dry seasn tariff = USc12/kWh Utility mnsn seasn tariff = USc7/kWh Utility tariff currently cheaper by USD0.3m/annum Utility tariffs have an increase trajectry Capital Deferral Assumptin is the deferral f 1 x 50km 132kV line Interest n debt deferral benefits: 1 year deferral = USD1.7m 2 year deferral = USD2.1m 3 year deferral = USD2.6m 4 year deferral = USD2.8m 5 year deferral = USD2.9m Cmparisn f LCOEs

6 Hydr Generatin: USc6/kWh PV generatin: USc6.7/kWh Utility tariff: USc7/kWh t USc12/kWh Cal Generatin: USc10/kWh Nuclear Generatin: USc10/kWh India imprt tariff: USc8.1/kWh t USc9.4/kWh Battery Strage with PV: USc11.4/kWh Battery nly: USc30/kWh Diesel/HFO generatin: USc40/kWh Cnclusins The Asian cuntry has a typical mrning and evening peak demand prfile Pwer supply frm indigenus hydrlgy is very seasnal Large amunts f lad shedding takes place annually = MWh Lad-shedding is csting the cuntry ecnmy $2.89bn/year 150MW (30MW/150MWh) BES slutins can save the cuntry $789bn/year LCOEs f different PV/BES slutins range frm USc6.7/kWh t USc30.5/kWh/year, hwever as PV and BES prices cntinue t drp, the LCOEs will imprve PV/BES slutins prvide ther benefits: System security (reduced reliance n India imprts) Utility peak replacement and related lss savings Capital deferral Lcal emplyment Diversificatin f energy supply Capacity building f engineering skills in the cuntry Self-sufficiency in electricity supply PV/BES slutins LCOEs begin at USc 11.4/kWh which is higher than current utility r India imprt electricity slutins hwever PV/BES prices are drpping and the utility tariffs are nt cst-reflective and the utility and imprt tariffs are increasing annually PV/BES slutins have LCOEs significantly lwer than back-up diesel generatin Slar/PV slutins can be installed in under 12 mnths with minr ESIA challenges

7 References [1] Lazard Levelised Cst f Supply (LCOS) reprt, Versin 3.0, December 2017