MARKET NEWSLETTER No 58 February 2012

Transcription

1 THE WORLD MARKET IN OLIVE OIL AND OLIVE POMACE OIL U.S. IMPORT TRENDS Perfrmance in 2010/11 U.S. imprts f live il and live pmace il made a recrd figure f t in the 2010/11 crp year (running frm Octber 2010 t September 2011), ging up by 7% frm the seasn befre. If we analyse this tnnage by grade, it emerges that 65% f imprts ( t) were virgin, f which 67% were bttled (cntainers < 18 kg) and the rest was imprted in bulk (> 18 kg). A further 29% ( t) was imprted as the grade knwn as live il, split between bttled (58%) and bulk prduct (42%). The remaining 6% f imprts ( t) were live pmace il, with a 71%/29% breakdwn between bulk and bttled prduct. There is a grwing tendency t imprt virgin live il. Further itemisatin by surce and cntainer type shws a picture where: 51% f all the il imprted came frm Italy, chiefly as bttled prduct (94% vs 6% in bulk) 23% came frm Spain (43% bttled vs 57% in bulk) 10% was frm Mrcc, 99% f which was imprted in bulk 9% was frm Tunisia (16% bttled cmpared with 84% bulk) 3% came frm Argentina (93% as bulk imprts) Imprt changes ver the last five crp years Table I belw shws the figures fr the last five crp years where we can see that imprts have risen frm t in 2006/07 t t in 2010/11, which translates int 11% grwth ( t). Italy cntinues t be the leading surce f U.S. imprts, althugh vlume-wise imprts frm Spain have been increasing while frm Italy they have been decreasing. It is striking t nte Mrcc s psitin as the third biggest surce f U.S. imprts in 2010/11, fuelled by its live expansin plan and higher prductin. Table I Trend f U.S. imprts by cuntry ver the last five crp years (t) Surce: Internatinal Olive Cuncil page 1

2 N 58 February 2012 Cmparisn f imprts in the last tw decades Cmparisn f the mean figures fr the last tw decades (Table II) reveals that imprts have grwn by 79%. Italy cntinues t be the tp exprter in vlume terms ver thesee tw perids, fllwed by Spain, Tunisia and Turkey, and n a smaller scale by Argentina, Greece and Mrcc. The biggest difference vis-à-vis 2010/ /11 is the Italy and Turkey have lst market share (-11.3 and -3.9 pints, respectively) t Mrcc (+8.3 pints), Spain (+3.6 pints) and Tunisia (+2.5 pints). The cming years will cnfirm whether this is a lasting trend, particularly fr Mrcc and Turkey. Table II Mean U.S. imprts fr the last 20 years, by cuntry f rigin (t) Imprt trends by cntainer type As can be seen frm Table III, analysis f imprt trends by type f cntainer ver the last 18 years shws that bulk imprts have experienced greater grwth than imprts f packed prduct. Table III Trend f U.S. imprts by type f cntainer (t) Surce: Internatinal Olive Cuncil page 2

3 WORLD MARKET FOR OLIVE OIL AND TABLE OLIVES 1. OLIVE OIL: +3.4% IMPORT GROWTH IN THE FIRST TWO MONTHS OF THE NEW 2011/12 SEASON Imprts f live il and live pmace il (intra-eu trade included) by eight specific imprter cuntries in the first three mnths f the 2011/12 crp year (Octber December) are listed in the next table. These figures shw higher imprts in five cases: China (+33%); Russia (+20%); Japan (+9%); Brazil (+4%, thanks t Nvember); and the United States (+1%, thanks t a gd level f imprts in Nvember wedged in between tw mnths where imprts drpped). Cnversely, imprts int Australia fell by 25%, starting in Nvember and becming mre marked in December, and by 7% in Canada, where the decrease was cncentrated abve all in Octber and December. At the time f writing, December data were nt available fr the EU, but, when set against the data fr the first tw mnths f 2010/11, the Octber + Nvember figures shw a drp f 3% in extra-eu/27 imprts and n change in intra-eu/27 imprts. Olive il imprts (including live-pmace ils) (t) N Imprting Octber 10 Octber 11 Nvember 10 Nvember 11 December 10 December 11 cuntry 1 Australia Brazil Canada China Japan Russia USA Extra-EU/ nd 9 Intra-EU/ nd Ttal TABLE OLIVES: 0.6% IMPORT GROWTH IN THE FIRST TWO MONTHS OF 2011/12 Of the six cuntries reprted in the table belw (intra-eu trade included), tw recrded grwth in their table live imprts in the first three mnths f the 2011/12 crp year (Octber December), namely Brazil (+24%) and Canada (+12%). Imprts decreased, hwever, int the United States (dwn by 12%, starting in Nvember) as well as int Australia and Russia, each by 8%, because the December figures amply cancelled ut the increases recrded in Octber and Nvember. At the time f writing, December data were nt available fr the EU. Even s, when set against the data fr the first tw mnths f 2010/11, the Octber + Nvember figures shw a drp f 9% in extra-eu/27 imprts and f 3% in intra-eu/27 imprts. N Imprting cuntry Table Olive Imprts (t) Octber 10 Octber 11 Nvember 10 Nvember 11 December 10 December 11 1 Australia Brazil Canada Russia USA Extra-EU/ nd 8 Intra-EU/ nd Ttal Surce: Internatinal Olive Cuncil page 3

4 MOVEMENTS IN PRODUCER PRICES Graphs 1 and 3 track the weekly mvements in the prices paid t prducers fr extra virgin live il and refined live il in the tp EU prducing cuntries. The mnthly price mvements fr the same tw grades f il plus refined live pmace ils are shwn in Graphs 2, 4 and 5, respectively. Extra virgin live il: Cmparisn with the same perid the year befre (Graph 1) shws that prices have drpped by 9% in Spain ( 1.82/kg), 6% in Greece ( 1.84/kg) and 23% in Italy ( 2.35/kg). Prices in Italy and Greece have nt varied in the past tw mnths. Hwever, in Spain, they have recrded a slight upturn after hitting their lwest level in the last three crp years. Graph 1 Graph 2 Surce: Internatinal Olive Cuncil page 4

5 Refined live il: Over the last 12 mnths, the prices f refined live il have fallen by 7% in Spain ( 1.77/kg) and Italy ( 1.77/kg) (Graph 3). These prices are lying at the lwest level since the last three crp years. N data are available fr Greece. The gap between the prices f refined live il and extra virgin live il is currently arund 0.14/kg in Spain and 0.58/kg in Italy. Graph 3 Graph 4 Surce: Internatinal Olive Cuncil page 5