PNS Soybean Workgroup
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- Annice Boone
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1 PNS Soybean Workgroup 2 February 2017 Nico Hawkins General Manager
2 Supply & Demand (National vs. International) SAGIS NAMC (S&D) International (USDA) Mar - Feb Final Projection: 2015/16 (c) 2016/17 (c) '000t '000t Sept - Aug Final: Projection: 2015/16 (d) 2016/17 (d) Mt Mt Opening stocks Production Imports Processed (b) (b) Exports Closing stocks 89.1 (a) 73.2 (a) (a) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures (b) Including producer withdrawals, seed and end users (c) Source: SAGIS 25 Jan '17 & NAMC: S&DEC - 31 Jan '17 (d) Source: USDA - 23 Jan '17
3 Production & Producer deliveries Crop Estimate vs. Producer Deliveries Soybean 2016/ / /15 Ton CEC Production * Less Retentions Total available SAGIS Deliveries ** Difference * Final Forecast ** SAGIS Progr. Mar '16 - Dec '16
4 Production & Producer deliveries CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS deliveries Ton SOYBEANS: CEC Crop Est., Ha, Yield & SAGIS Deliveries Yield SAGIS (Prod Del) CEC (Crop Est) CEC (Ha) CEC (Yield) Source: S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj. 0.00
5 Imports & Exports Summarised info Marketing year Import Export 2014/ / *2016/ *Progr. Mar '16 - Dec '16 Source: SAGIS Soybean Ton
6 Imports & Exports per marketing year Ton SOYBEANS: Imports & Exports Imports Exports 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. Source: S&DEC 16/17 Proj.
7 Imports & Exports SARS Imports to RSA 2016/17 season (Progr.) Imports Tariff Line Soybeans - whether or not broken - Other Country Ton value R'000 Rand/ton Austria China Ethiopia Myanmar Paraguay Suriname Taiwan, Prov of China Thailand United Kingdom United States Zambia Total Progressive: Mar - Nov '16 Source: SARS
8 Imports & Exports SARS Exports from RSA 2016/17 season (Progr.) Exports Tariff Line Soybeans - whether or not broken - Other Country Ton value R'000 Rand/ton Australia Botswana Chile Lesotho Malawi Mauritius Mozambique Namibia Seychelles Swaziland Zambia Zimbabwe Total Progressive: Mar - Nov '16 Source: SARS
9 Processed & Consumption Soybeans Processed Firms Tons Firms Tons Human Consumption Animal Feed Oil and Oilcake * 2016/17: Mar '16 - Dec '16 Source: SAGIS ** 2015/16: Mar '15 - Dec ' /17 * 2015/16 **
10 Processed & Consumption Ton SOYBEANS: Processed Human Animal feed (full fat soya) Crush (oil/oilcake) Source: S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj.
11 Current season summary SOYBEANS: 2016/17 Season - Mar '16 to Dec ' S&DEC Deliveries S&DEC Imports S&DEC Processed S&DEC Exports CEC (Crop Estimate) Prod deliveries Imports Processed Exports
12 Price movements Soybeans: International prices (CBOT) Soybean - CBOT Latest prices vs previous prices Contract: 2017/01/ /12/ /01/25 % Month % Year Price Price Price on Month on Year $/Ton $/Ton $/Ton March May Source: CBOT
13 Price movements Soybeans: Indicative import parity prices 2017/01/24 Argentinia Soybeans Up River $/t value $/t Freight rate Insurance (0.3% of ) 1.21 Cost, Insurance and Freight (cif) $/t Converted to R/t: Exhange R/$ (2017/01/24) Cost, Insurance and Freight (CIF) R/t Financing cost Cost, Insurance, Freight and Financing R/t Discharge cost - Durban Import tariff Free on Rail (FOR) - Durban Railage: Durban - Randfontein DELIVERED: Durban - Randfontein Delivered: Durban - Randfontein (2016/01/26) Current SAFEX price (2017/01/24) R/t
14 Price Movements Soybeans: Local prices (SAFEX) Soybean - SAFEX Latest prices vs previous prices Future prices for: 2017/01/ /12/ /12/24 % Month % Year Price Price Price on Month on Year R/Ton R/Ton R/Ton March May Source: SAFEX
15 Price Movements Soybean Oil: SARS prices SOYBEANS CRUDE OIL Quantity Imports (Ton) Total value of imports R'000 Value per ton R/Ton SOYBEANS CRUDE OIL Quantity Exports (Ton) Total value of exports R'000 Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS 2016/17 Mar - Nov 2015/ / /17 Mar - Nov 2015/ /
16 Price Movements Soybean Oil: SARS prices SOYBEANS OIL OTHER Quantity Imports (Ton) Total value of imports R'000 Value per ton R/Ton SOYBEANS OIL OTHER Quantity Exports (Ton) Total value of exports R'000 Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS 2016/17 Mar - Nov 2015/ / /17 Mar - Nov 2015/ /
17 Price Movements Soybean Oilcake: SARS prices SOYBEAN OILCAKE Quantity Imports (Ton) Total value of imports R'000 Value per ton R/Ton SOYBEAN OILCAKE Quantity Exports (Ton) Total value of exports R'000 Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS 2016/17 Mar - Nov 2015/ / /17 Mar - Nov 2015/ /
18 Price Movements Oilseeds Products: Year on year price changes December % Year % Year Price Price Price on Year on Year R R R Brick Margarine 500g Peanut Butter 400g Sunflower Oil 750ml Source: SA Statistics
19 Price Movements Oilseeds Products: prices (Jan 08 Dec 16) Rand Sunflower oil 750ml Margarine Brick 500g Peanut butter 400g PRICES: OILSEEDS PRODUCTS Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-16
20 Price Movements Oilseeds Products: Index (Jan 08 Dec 16) % 300 OILSEEDS PRODUCTS INDEX % Sunflower Oil 750 ml Peanut Butter 400 gr 0 Margarine Brick 500 gr Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 May-16 Oct-16
21 Soybean: Co-workers Soybeans: Firms registered with SAGIS Traders % Storers % Harbour silo owners % Processors % Total firms: 105
22 Note: This presentation is available on SAGIS website under Presentations Thank you
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Commercial-in-Confidence Ashton Old Baths Financial Model - Detailed Cashflow
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 2,038 2,922 4,089 4,349 6,256 7,124 8,885 8,885 8,885 8,885 8,885 8,885 9,107
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Commodity Future CME CORN FUURES Main Board Close Change Last Change CME Corn Sep'12 7971/4 71/2 7961/4-1 CME Corn Dec'12 7981/2 73/4 7971/4-11/4 CME Corn Mar'13 8011/2 63/4 8001/4-11/4 CME Corn May'13
Rudi Swanepoel. Fax:
Commodity Future CME CORN FUURES Main Board Month Close Change Last Change CME Corn May'13 6511/4 21/4 654 23/4 CME Corn Jul'13 6331/2 1 6353/4 21/4 CME Corn Sep'13 567 1/4 5671/2 1/2 CME Corn Dec'13 544
Rudi Swanepoel. Fax:
Commodity Future CME CORN FUURES Main Board Month Close Change Last Change CME Corn Sep'13 4811/2 163/4 4781/4-31/4 CME Corn Dec'13 4721/4 17 4691/4-3 CME Corn Mar'14 4841/2 161/4 4821/2-2 CME Corn May'14
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