Sorghum Forum. 4 November Nico Hawkins General Manager

Transcription

1 Sorghum Forum 4 November 2016 Nico Hawkins General Manager

2 Sorghum: Supply & demand (National vs. International Marketing season) SAGIS NAMC (S&DEC) International (IGC) Marketing year: Mar - Feb Sep - Aug Actual 2015/16 Projection: 2016/17 Estimate: 2015/16 Projection: 2016/17 '000t '000t Mil ton Mil ton Opening stocks Production Imports Total use (a) (a) Exports Closing stocks 83.1 (b) 38.4 (b) (a) Including producer withdrawals, seed and end users. (b) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures. Source: SAGIS 25 Oct '16, NAMC: S&DEC - 28 Oct '16

3 Sweet & Bitter Sorghum: Supply & demand Marketing year: Mar - Feb SAGIS Actual 2015/16 NAMC (S&DEC) Projection: 2016/17 '000t '000t Sweet Bitter Total Sweet Bitter Total Opening stocks Production Imports Total use (a) Exports Closing stocks (b) (a) Including producer withdrawals, seed and end users. (b) All stocks, regardless ownership thereof, in commercial structures. Source: SAGIS 25 Oct '16, NAMC: S&DEC - 28 Oct '16

4 Sorghum Crop estimates vs. Producer deliveries 2016/17** 2015/ /15 CEC Production * SAGIS Deliveries Difference * CEC Final Estimate ** SAGIS Progressive Mar - Sep '15

5 Sorghum Crop estimates vs. Producer deliveries Summer crops intentions to plant

6 Sorghum: CEC Estimate, Yield, Ha & SAGIS Deliveries (Progr. 1 Mar 30 Sep 16) Ton SORGHUM: CEC ESTIMATE vs. SAGIS DELIVERIES CEC Prod deliveries HA Yield S&DEC Yield /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj. 0.00

7 Sorghum: Imports & Exports per marketing season Summarised info Sorghum 2016/17 * 2015/ /15 Ton Imports Exports *Progr. 2016/17: Mar - Sep '16 Source: SAGIS

8 Sorghum: Imports for RSA 2016/17 season (Progr. Mar Sep 16) Month Ukraine United States Month Total Progressive Total Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep TOTAL 2016/ Source: SAGIS Sorghum: RSA Imports 2016/17 Progr. Mar - Sep '16 Ukraine % United States % Progr. Total:

9 Sorghum: Exports from RSA 2016/17 season (Progr. Mar Sep 16) Month Botswana Swaziland Month Total Progressive Total Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep TOTAL 2016/ Source: SAGIS Sorghum: RSA Exports 2016/17 Progr. Mar - Sep '16 Swaziland % Botswana % Progr. Total: 7 154

10 Sorghum: Imports & Exports per marketing season (Progr. 1 Mar 30 Sep 16) Ton SORGHUM: IMPORTS & EXPORTS Imports Exports S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj.

11 Sorghum: Consumption (Mar Sep) Sorghum 2016/17 * 2015/16 ** Processed Firms Tons Firms Tons Indoor malting Floor malting Meal, rice & grits Pet Food Poultry feed Lifestock feed * 2016/17: 1 Mar '16-30 Sep '16 Source: SAGIS ** 2015/16: 1 Mar '15-30 Sep '16

12 Sorghum: Consumption (Progr. 1 Mar 30 Sep 16) Ton SORGHUM: PROCESSED Malting Meal, rice & grits Animal feed S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj.

13 Sorghum: Opening & Ending Stocks (Progr. 1 Mar 30 Sep 16) Ton SORGHUM: OPENING & ENDING STOCKS Opening stock Ending Stock S&DEC /07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 Progr. 16/17 Proj.

14 Sorghum: 2016/17 Marketing Year (Progr. 1 Mar 30 Sep 16) Ton SORGHUM: 2016/17 MARKETING YEAR (Progressive: 1 Mar - 30 Sep 2016) Projected S&DEC Projected S&DEC Projected S&DEC Projected S&DEC CEC Prod deliveries Processed Imports Exports

15 Sorghum: Price movements Indicative Import Parity Prices Sorghum Sorghum Sorghum 2016/10/25 USA Argentine Australian Golf Up River Brisbane 2016/ / /10 $/t $/t $/t FOB value Freight Insurance (0.3% of FOB) Cost, insurance and freight (CIF) $/t Converted to R/t Exchange R/$ (2016/10/25) R/t R/t R/t Cost, insurance and freight (CIF) Financing Cost, insurance, freight & financing Discharging Discharging (Durban) Import tariff FOR at Durban Railage: Durban to Randfontein DELIVERED - Durban to Randfontein DELIVERED - Durban to Randfontein (2015/10/27) SAFEX

16 Sorghum: SAFEX Price Movements SAFEX: Latest prices vs. previous prices Sorghum Contract 2016/10/25 % Month 2016/09/26 % Year 2015/10/26 Price on Month Price on Year Price R R R December ' March ' Source: SAFEX

17 Sorghum: CBOT Price Movements Sorghum FOB: Latest prices vs. previous 2016/10/26 % Month 2016/09/28 % Year 2015/10/28 Price on Month Price on Year Price $ $ $ US Gulf Argentina, Up River

18 Sorghum: SARS FOB Prices Imports (Progr. 1 Mar - 31 Aug 16) SORGHUM March - February 2016/17 Mar - Aug 2015/ /15 Imports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB value (R'000) Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS

19 Sorghum: SARS FOB Prices Imports per country: 2016/17 (Progr. Mar Aug 16) Imports Country Tariff Line Grain sorghum - Other Quantity (Ton) FOB value (R'000) R/Ton Botswana India Nigeria Taiwan, Prov of China Ukraine United States Total

20 Sorghum: SARS FOB Prices Exports: (Progr. 1 Mar 31 Aug 16) SORGHUM March - February 2016/17 Mar - Aug 2015/ /15 Exports Total value of imports Quantity (Ton) FOB value (R'000) Value per ton R/Ton Source: SARS

21 Sorghum: SARS FOB Prices Exports per country (Progr. 1 Mar 31 Aug 16) Exports Country Tariff Line Grain sorghum - Other Quantity (Ton) FOB value (R'000) R/Ton Australia Botswana Congo, Dem Rep Lesotho Namibia Swaziland Zimbabwe Total Source: SARS

22 Sorghum: Co-workers -2016/17- Storers 8 Traders 26 Harbour silo owners 11 Processors 67 Total firms: 112

23 Acknowledgement Board of Directors Dr John Purchase Chairperson Sorghum Industry is represented by: Mr Anton Nebe Vice-Chairperson Mr Happy Mohane Director Mr Willem Groothof (Alternate)

24 Acknowledgement Gratitude The following parties makes it possible for SAGIS to fulfil all commitments: Sorghum Trust Sorghum Forum Relevant Associations Board of Directors Co-workers Staff

25 Note: This presentation will be available on SAGIS website under SAGIS information, Presentations Thank you