US biofuel Indicators and a changing market dynamic
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1 US biofuel Indicators and a changing market dynamic Seth Meyer AMIS October 1-2, 13, Rome Movement of Ag and Energy Ethanol production and capacity Crude oil and maize prices 14 3 billion gallons Maize [US$/mt] Crude oil [US$/bbl] Under construction/expansion Existing capacity Production Jan-3 Apr-4 Jul-5 Oct-6 Jan-8 Apr-9 Jul-1 Oct-11 Maize Crude Oil 1
2 Ethanol Production Margin (Dry Mill) Maize Natural Gas Electricity Labor and other variable costs Ethanol Distillers Grains Corn Oil CO 2 Ethanol Production Margin (Dry Mill) August 13 = $.25 per gallon $2.24 Maize Ethanol $2.26 $.18 Natural Gas Distillers Grains $.72 $.5 Electricity Corn Oil $.5 $.3 Labor and other variable costs CO 2 $. 2
3 dollars/gallon Sep-7 Feb-8 Ethanol Production Margins at spot costs Jul-8 Dec-8 May-9 Oct-9 Mar-1 Aug-1 Nov-11 Fixed other variable costs Elec and nat gas costs corn oil removal Production Source: USDA-AMS National Ethanol Summary, USDA-WAOB Jerry Norton May-14 Oct-14 Mar dollars/gallon Sep-7 Feb-8 Ethanol Production Margins at spot costs Jul-8 Dec-8 May-9 Oct-9 Mar-1 Aug-1 Nov-11 Fixed other variable costs Elec and nat gas costs corn oil removal Production Source: USDA-AMS National Ethanol Summary, USDA-WAOB Jerry Norton May-14 Oct-14 Mar
4 dollars/gallon Sep-7 Feb-8 Ethanol Production Margins at spot costs Jul-8 Dec-8 May-9 Oct-9 Mar-1 Aug-1 Nov-11 Fixed other variable costs Elec and nat gas costs corn oil removal Production Source: USDA-AMS National Ethanol Summary, USDA-WAOB Jerry Norton May-14 Oct-14 Mar dollars/gallon Sep-7 Feb-8 Ethanol Production Margins at spot costs Jul-8 Dec-8 May-9 Oct-9 Mar-1 Aug-1 Nov-11 Fixed other variable costs Elec and nat gas costs corn oil removal Production Source: USDA-AMS National Ethanol Summary, USDA-WAOB Jerry Norton May-14 Oct-14 Mar
5 Maize vs DDGS prices 35 dollars per metric ton Sep-7 Jan-8 May-8 Sep-8 Jan-9 May-9 Sep-9 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 May-13 Maize DDGS Source: USDA-AMS National Ethanol Summary Ethanol Production Margin (Dry Mill) August 13 = $.25 per gallon $2.24 Maize Ethanol $2.26 $.18 Natural Gas Distillers Grains $.72 $.5 Electricity Corn Oil $.5 $.3 Labor and other variable costs CO 2 $. 5
6 Monthly Ethanol Production margin with futures (3 month lag) Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Jun-13 Actual Predicted Change in Ethanol Production Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Jun-13 Actual Change Predicted Chagne 6
7 35 3 Oil vs maize prices Crude oil and maize prices Maize [US$/mt] Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Maize Crude Oil Crude oil [US$/bbl] Source: 3-mkt oil price, corn FOB gulf US dollars/gallon Sep-7 Feb-8 Ethanol Production Margins at spot costs Jul-8 Dec-8 May-9 Oct-9 Mar-1 Aug-1 Nov-11 Fixed other variable costs Elec and nat gas costs corn oil removal Production Source: USDA-AMS National Ethanol Summary, USDA-WAOB Jerry Norton May-14 Oct-14 Mar
8 dollars/gallon Sep-7 Feb-8 Ethanol Production Margins at spot costs Jul-8 Dec-8 May-9 Oct-9 Mar-1 Aug-1 Source: USDA-AMS National Ethanol Summary, USDA-WAOB Jerry Norton Nov-11 Fixed other variable costs Elec and nat gas costs corn oil removal Production May-14 Oct-14 Mar Gasoline vs Ethanol Futures dollars per gallon Apr-7 Aug-7 Dec-7 Apr-8 Aug-8 Dec-8 Apr-9 Aug-9 Dec-9 Apr-1 Aug-1 Dec-1 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Apr-14 Source: NYMEX/CBOT Nearby futures as history Ethanol Gasoline Ethanol Gasoline 8
9 Weekly Ethanol Production Pace, Mandate vs Margin (.) (.) Jun-1 Aug-1 Oct-1 Dec-1 Feb-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Jun-13 annualized production [bil. gal] margin [$/gal] Aug-13 Production Pace Mandate Margin Blend wall constraints on domestic consumption of ethanol billion gallons Conventional Other non-biodiesel adv Cellulosic E1 limit Source: Mandates as in EISA 7, E1 limit is 1% of the EIA-AEO 13 motorfueluse 9
10 1 Maize disappearance 1 million metric tons /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 11/12 12/13w 13/14w 14/15f 15/16f 16/17f 17/18f 18/19f 19/f /21f 21/22f 22/23f Feed and residual Ethanol Other food, seed and industrial Exports Source: ERS history and forecast, 12/13-13/14 updated with August WASDE estimates Crude oil vs sugar prices Sugar [US$/mt] Crude oil [US$/bbl] Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Source: Sugar free market (CSCE) Sugar Crude Oil 1
11 Crude oil vs soybean prices Soybean [US$/mt] Crude oil [US$/bbl] Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Source: Chicago soybean Futures Soybeans Crude Oil Crude oil vs soybean oil prices Soybean [US$/mt] 1 Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Source: Soybean oil Chicago nearby futures Soybeans Crude Oil Crude oil [US$/bbl] 11
12 Crude oil vspalm oil prices Palm oil [US$/mt] Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Jan-1 Jul-1 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Source: Palm oil, Malaysia Palm Oil Futures Palm oil Crude Oil Crude oil [US$/bbl] End 12
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