Rudi Swanepoel. Fax:

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Rudi Swanepoel. Fax:"

Bathsheba Janel York
5 years ago
Views:

Commodity Future CME CORN FUURES Main Board Close Change Last Change CME Corn Sep'12 7971/4 71/2 7961/4-1 CME Corn Dec'12 7981/2 73/4 7971/4-11/4 CME Corn Mar'13 8011/2 63/4 8001/4-11/4 CME Corn

2 Rand/Pound 07:05 13.1649 Brent Crude 07:06 113.2 Rand/Euro 07:05 10.4636 Rand/Dollar 07:11 8.2848 Dollar/Euro 07:09 1.

1 Commodity Future CME CORN FUURES Main Board Close Change Last Change CME Corn Sep' /4 71/2 7961/4-1 CME Corn Dec' /2 73/4 7971/4-11/4 CME Corn Mar' /2 63/4 8001/4-11/4 CME Corn May' /4 61/4 7963/4-1/2 CME Corn July' /2 51/2 7843/4 1/4 CME Corn Sep' /4 103/4 6941/4-11/2 CME Corn Dec' /2 33/4 6593/4-3/4 LAES SPO PRICES Gold 07: Rand/Pound 07: Brent Crude 07: Rand/Euro 07: Rand/Dollar 07: Dollar/Euro 07: Net Overnight Market Net Rudi Swanepoel el: Fax: US CORN RECAP Morning Agricultural Market Report CME CORN FUURES MARKE RECAP 07 September 2012 Corn futures closed 3 1/4 to 10 3/4 cents higher, which was in the upper end of today's range, but off session highs. Corn futures were supported by fresh demand news today as USDA reported daily export sales of 217,424 metric tons ,912 M for and 32,512 M for to unknown destinations. While traders were curious if "unknown" was China, the key is that end-user buying surfaced following recent price pressure, signaling there's still solid demand under the market. Weekly QCZ2 Cndl, QCZ2, Last rade SMA, QCZ2, Last rade(last), 13 SMA, QCZ2, Last rade(last), 21 CME DEC'12 CORN - WEEKLY SNAPSHO 2010/07/ /10/21 (CHG) US CORN SUPPLY & DEMAND PROJECION (M/Bu) 2011/ / / /13 (M Acres) USDA Informa USDA Informa Aug Aug Aug Aug Planting Acres Harvested Acres Yield (Bu/ Acre) Initial Stocks(M/Bu) Production Imports otal Supply Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q FUNDAMENAL CHARS /8 Feed/Residual Food/Seed & Industry Ethanol otal Domestic Exports otal Usage Ending Stocks Stks/Use Ratio % 8.3% 5.8% 4.9%

Commodity Option Future Main Board Net Volatility Close Change (%) SAFEX WMAZ FUURES (Previous Close) oday's Opening Call South African Maize Recap Indicative Import and Export Parity s - USA No.

00 -R 20 R/ton (Current 07:00am) 3318 3357 3401 3412 3395 3105 SAFEX WMAZ Oct'12 2532-52 0.00 -R 20 R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) 3349 3384 3431 3441 3422 3100 SAFEX WMAZ Dec'12 2576-49 25.

2 Commodity Option Future Main Board Net Volatility Close Change (%) SAFEX WMAZ FUURES (Previous Close) oday's Opening Call South African Maize Recap Indicative Import and Export Parity s - USA No.3 Yellow Maize Gulf US No.3 YMAZ Import Parity FOR Durban Harbour Sep'12 Dec'12 Mar'13 May'13 Jul'13 Sep'13 SAFEX WMAZ Sep' R 20 R/ton (Current 07:00am) SAFEX WMAZ Oct' R 20 R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) SAFEX WMAZ Dec' R 20 Parity Change Up/Down R -31 R -27 R -29 R -29 R -27 R 5 SAFEX WMAZ Mar' R 20 SAFEX Below Durban Harbour n/a SAFEX WMAZ May' R 20 US No.3 YMAZ Import Parity - Delivered - Durban to Randfontein SAFEX WMAZ Jul' R 20 SAFEX YMAZ FUURES (Previous Close) Sep'12 Dec'12 Mar'13 May'13 Jul'13 Sep'13 SAFEX YMAZ Sep' R 20 R/ton (Current 07:00am) SAFEX YMAZ Oct' R 20 R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) SAFEX YMAZ Dec' R 20 Parity Change Up/Down R -31 R -27 R -29 R -29 R -27 R 5 SAFEX YMAZ Mar' R 20 SAFEX Below Randfontein n/a SAFEX YMAZ May' R 20 YMAZ Export Parity Randfontein SAFEX YMAZ Jul' R 20 RSA MAIZE SUPPLY & DEMAND PROJECION ('000 tons) Sep'12 Dec'12 Mar'13 May'13 Jul'13 Sep'13 R/ton (Current 07:00am) R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) Parity Change Up/Down R -28 R -24 R -26 R -26 R -24 R 7 SAFEX Above Export Parity n/a Latest SAGIS Figures MAIZE EXPORS - Progressive 2012/13 Season WEEKLY PRODUCER DELIVERIES ('000) Outstanding Exported from Destined for 1Mar'12-1May'12 - otal Commodity Less CEC (excluding RSA: Africa Overseas 30Apr'12 28Feb'13 Retentions) WMAZ WMAZ YMAZ YMAZ otal otal PARIY GRAPH

Commodity Future Main Board Close Net Change Overnight Market Last Net Change CME SOYBEAN FUURES CME Soybeans Sep'12 17441/2-31/2 1743-11/2 CME Soybeans Nov'12 1747-1/2 17401/2-61/2 CME Soybeans

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CME Soy Meal Sep'12 531.80-0.20 530.00-1.80 CME Soy Meal Oct'12 528.30 3.10 525.10-3.20 CME Soy Meal Dec'12 528.10 3.10 524.80-3.30 CME Soy Meal Jan'13 524.30 3.50 521.60-2.

3 Commodity Future Main Board Close Net Change Overnight Market Last Net Change CME SOYBEAN FUURES CME Soybeans Sep' /2-31/ /2 CME Soybeans Nov' / /2-61/2 CME Soybeans Jan' /4-1/ /2-61/4 CME Soybeans Mar' /4-31/ /2-73/4 CME Soybeans May' /4-1/ /4 CME Soybeans Jul' / /4 CME SOY MEAL FUURES CME Soy Meal Aug' CME Soy Meal Sep' CME Soy Meal Oct' CME Soy Meal Dec' CME Soy Meal Jan' CME Soy Meal Mar' CME SOYBEAN OIL FUURES CME Soybean Oil Aug' CME Soybean Oil Sep' CME Soybean Oil Oct' CME Soybean Oil Dec' CME Soybean Oil Jan' CME Soybean Oil Mar' US SOYBEAN SUPPLY & DEMAND PROJECION 2011/ / / /13 (M Acres) USDA Informa USDA Informa Aug Aug Aug Aug Planting Acres Harvested Acres Yield (Bu/ Acre) US SOY RECAP CME SOY FUURES MARKE RECAP Soybean futures ventured into positive territory at times today, but bears had control most of the session. Futures ended high-range with fractional to 3 1/2-cent losses in most contracts. Soymeal ended mostly slightly higher while soyoil closed moderately lower. A lack of fresh fundamental news led to additional profit-taking in the soybean market today. raders expect harvest will soon weigh on the bean market, regardless of the pitiful state of the crop. Weekly QSX2 Cndl, QSX2, Last rade SMA, QSX2, Last rade(last), 13 SMA, QSX2, Last rade(last), 21 CME NOV'12 SOYBEAN - WEEKLY SNAPSHO FUNDAMENAL CHARS 2010/07/ /10/14 (CHG) Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q /8 Initial Stocks(M/Bu) Production Imports Supply, otal Crushing Exports Seed/Residual Use, otal Ending Stocks Stks/Use Ratio % 4.4% 4.2% 0.3%

Option Commodity Future Main Board Net Volatility Close Change (%) SAFEX SUNFLOWER FUURES (Previous Close) South African Soy and Sunflower Recap oday's Indicative Import and Export Parity s - USA

00 -R 40 R/ton (Current 07:00am) 6502 6553 6593 6444 6218 6177 SAFEX SUNS Dec'12 6100-80 26.00 -R 40 R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) 6582 6627 6668 6524 6292 6243 SAFEX SUNS Mar'13 6000-70 27.

00 -R 40 SAFEX Below Durban Harbour 457 433 493 717 1287 n/a SAFEX SOYA FUURES (Previous Close) USA SOYBEANS Import Parity - Delivered - Durban to Randfontein SAFEX SOYA Sep'12 6045-95 0.

4 Option Commodity Future Main Board Net Volatility Close Change (%) SAFEX SUNFLOWER FUURES (Previous Close) South African Soy and Sunflower Recap oday's Indicative Import and Export Parity s - USA SOYBEANS Opening USA SOYBEANS Import Parity FOR Durban Harbour Call Sep'12 Nov'12 Jan'13 Mar'13 May'13 Jul'13 SAFEX SUNS Sep' R 40 R/ton (Current 07:00am) SAFEX SUNS Dec' R 40 R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) SAFEX SUNS Mar' R 40 Parity Change Up/Down SAFEX SUNS May' R 40 SAFEX Below Durban Harbour n/a SAFEX SOYA FUURES (Previous Close) USA SOYBEANS Import Parity - Delivered - Durban to Randfontein SAFEX SOYA Sep' R 40 SAFEX SOYA Dec' R 40 Sep'12 Nov'12 Jan'13 Mar'13 May'13 Jul'13 SAFEX SOYA Mar' R 40 R/ton (Current 07:00am) SAFEX SOYA May' R 40 R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) Latest SAGIS - MONHLY PRODUCER DELIVERIES Parity Change Up/Down PROG. JAN DEC 2012 (tons) SAFEX Below Randfontein n/a Commodity Farm Out- SOYBEANS Export Parity Durban Harbour Less CEC Retentions Deliveries standing SOYA Sep'12 Nov'12 Jan'13 Mar'13 May'13 Jul'13 SUNS R/ton (Current 07:00am) RSA SOYA AND SUNFLOWER SUPPLY & DEMAND PROJECION R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) Parity Change Up/Down SAFEX Above Export Parity n/a PARIY GRAPH

Commodity Future Main Board Close Net Change Overnight Market Last Net Change CME WHEA FUURES CME Wheat Sep'12 872 261/4 8681/2-31/2 CME Wheat Dec'12 8913/4 24 889-23/4 CME Wheat Mar'13 9033/4 231/4

Dec'12 9111/2 241/2 9101/2-1 KCB Wheat Mar'13 923 233/4 9213/4-11/4 KCB Wheat May'13 9203/4 23 9181/4-21/2 KCB Wheat July'13 884 83/4 8843/4 3/4 KCB Wheat Sep'13 8831/2 81/4 8831/2 0 US WHEA RECAP

5 Commodity Future Main Board Close Net Change Overnight Market Last Net Change CME WHEA FUURES CME Wheat Sep' /4 8681/2-31/2 CME Wheat Dec' / /4 CME Wheat Mar' /4 231/4 9001/2-31/4 CME Wheat May' /4 221/4 8973/4-61/2 CME Wheat July' /4 123/ /4 CME Wheat Sep' /4 131/4 0 0 KCB WHEA FUURES KCB Wheat Sep' /2 241/2 8863/4-3/4 KCB Wheat Dec' /2 241/2 9101/2-1 KCB Wheat Mar' /4 9213/4-11/4 KCB Wheat May' / /4-21/2 KCB Wheat July' /4 8843/4 3/4 KCB Wheat Sep' /2 81/4 8831/2 0 US WHEA RECAP CME WHEA FUURES MARKE RECAP Wheat futures posted strong gains at all three exchanges. Chicago wheat closed 22 1/4 to 26 1/4 cents higher in the September through May contracts, with far-deferred contracts advancing about half that much. Kansas City wheat was mostly 21 to 25 cents higher, although fardeferred contracts were around 9 cents higher. Minneapolis wheat finished 13 1/2 to 19 3/4 cents higher. Wheat futures were boosted by demand news today as Egypt bought 475,000 metric tons (M) of Black Sea origin wheat ,000 M from Russia, 120,000 M from Romania and 55,000 M from Ukraine. Weekly QZWZ2 Cndl, QZWZ2, Last rade 2012/09/09, 892, 904, /4, /4 SMA, QZWZ2, Last rade(last), /09/09, /8+ SMA, QZWZ2, Last rade(last), /09/09, /4+ CME NOV'12 WHEA - WEEKLY SNAPSHO 2010/07/ /10/20 (CHG) US WHEA SUPPLY & DEMAND PROJECION (M/Bu) 2011/ / / /13 (M Acres) USDA Informa USDA Informa Aug Aug Aug Aug Planting Acres Harvested Acres Yield (Bu / Acre) Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q /8 Initial Stocks(M/Bu) Production Imports FUNDAMENAL CHARS otal Supply Food Seed Feed/Residual otal Domestic Exports otal Usage Ending Stocks Stks/Use Ratio 33.3% 33.3% 28.6% 24.4%

Commodity Future Main Board Net Option Volatility Close Change (%) SAFEX WHEA FUURES (Previous Close) oday's Opening Call South African Wheat Recap Indicative Import and Export Parity s - USA HRW No.

00 R 10 R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) 3509 3652 3733 3755 3698 3719 SAFEX Wheat Dec'12 3474-31 20.00 R 10 Parity Change Up/Down 39 7 0-8 -33-33 SAFEX Wheat Mar'13 3549-29 24.

6 Commodity Future Main Board Net Option Volatility Close Change (%) SAFEX WHEA FUURES (Previous Close) oday's Opening Call South African Wheat Recap Indicative Import and Export Parity s - USA HRW No.2 Wheat USA HRW No.2 Wheat Import Parity FOR Durban Harbour Sep'12 Dec'12 Mar'13 May'13 Jul'13 Sep'13 R/ton (Current 07:00am) SAFEX Wheat Sep' R 10 R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) SAFEX Wheat Dec' R 10 Parity Change Up/Down SAFEX Wheat Mar' R 10 SAFEX Below Durban Harbour n/a n/a n/a USA HRW No.2 Wheat Import Parity - Delivered - Durban to Randfontein Sep'12 Dec'12 Mar'13 May'13 Jul'13 Sep'13 Latest SAGIS WHEA IMPORS / EXPORS ('11/'12) R/ton (Current 07:00am) Imported from: otal ons Destined for: R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) RSA Africa Overseas Parity Change Up/Down Overseas SAFEX Below Randfontein n/a n/a n/a Exported from: otal ons Destined for: Wheat Export Parity Randfontein Africa Overseas Overseas Sep'12 Dec'12 Mar'13 May'13 Jul'13 Sep'13 RSA R/ton (Current 07:00am) R/ton (Previous 12:00pm) Parity Change Up/Down SAFEX Above Export Parity n/a n/a n/a RSA WHEA SUPPLY & DEMAND PROJECION PARIY GRAPH

7 2 Weekly Precipitation Forecast Weather Forecasts : Africa Daily Precipitation Forecast - 8-Sep-12 Daily Precipitation Forecast - 9-Sep-12 IRI Seasonal Climate Forecasts Daily Precipitation Forecast - 10-Sep-12

8 2 Weekly Precipitation Forecast Weather Forecasts : North America Current US Surface Analysis US Crop Moisture Index North America Accumalated Weekly Precipitation Palmer Drought Index

9 SAFEX DEC'12 WMAZ - DAILY RSI, QMAWZ2 2012/09/06, Cndl, QMAWZ2 2012/09/06, 2,586.00, 2,591.00, 2,562.40, 2, MA, QMAWZ2 2012/09/06, 2,687.69, 2, ,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 StochS, QMAWZ2 2012/09/06, , StochS, QMAWZ2 2012/09/06, , Mar 12 April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 Sep 12.12

10 SAFEX DEC'12 YMAZ - DAILY RSI, QMAYZ2 2012/09/06, Cndl, QMAYZ2 2012/09/06, 2,575.00, 2,576.00, 2,545.00, 2, MA, QMAYZ2 2012/09/06, 2,665.92, 2, ,800 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 StochS, QMAYZ2 2012/09/06, , StochS, QMAYZ2 2012/09/06, , April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 Sep 12

11 SAFEX DEC'12 WMAZ vs. CORN DEC'12 (Corn Split) - Daily Spread, QCORZ2 2012/09/06, SMA, Spread(QCORZ2, QMAWZ2) 2012/09/06, SMA, Spread(QCORZ2, QMAWZ2) 2012/09/06, Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12

12 CME DEC'12 CORN - DAILY RSI, QCZ2 2012/09/07, Cndl, QCZ2 2012/09/07, 7971 /2, 7983 /4, 796, 7971 /4 2MA, QCZ2 2012/09/07, 8081 /8 +, 8073 / StochS, QCZ2 2012/09/07, , StochS, QCZ2 2012/09/07, , April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 Sep /8

13 SAFEX DEC'12 WHEA - DAILY RSI, QWEAZ2 2012/09/06, Cndl, QWEAZ2 2012/09/06, 3,470.00, 3,481.00, 3,458.00, 3, MA, QWEAZ2 2012/09/06, 3,528.29, 3, ,600 3,500 3,400 3,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 StochS, QWEAZ2 2012/09/06, , StochS, QWEAZ2 2012/09/06, , April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 Sep 12

14 CME DEC'12 WHEA - DAILY RSI, QZWZ2 2012/09/07, Cndl, QZWZ2 2012/09/07, 891, 8921 /2, 888, 8891 /2 2MA, QZWZ2 2012/09/07, 8933 /8 +, 8911 / StochS, QZWZ2 2012/09/07, , StochS, QZWZ2 2012/09/07, , April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 Sep 12 1/8

15 SAFEX SEP'12 SUNFLOWER - DAILY RSI, QSUFU2 2012/09/06, Cndl, QSUFU2 2012/09/06, 6,020.00, 6,035.00, 6,000.00, 6, MA, QSUFU2 2012/09/06, 5,862.31, 5, ,000 5,900 5,800 5,700 5,600 5,500 5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 StochS, QSUFU2 2012/09/06, , StochS, QSUFU2 2012/09/06, , Mar 12 April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 Sep 12 5,000.12

16 SAFEX SEP'12 SOYA - DAILY RSI, QSOYU2 2012/09/06, Cndl, QSOYU2 2012/09/06, 6,070.00, 6,070.00, 6,040.00, 6, MA, QSOYU2 2012/09/06, 6,004.15, 5, ,200 6,000 5,800 5,600 5,400 5,200 5,000 4,800 4,600 StochS, QSOYU2 2012/09/06, , StochS, QSOYU2 2012/09/06, , Mar 12 April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 Sep 12 4,400.12

17 CME NOV'12 SOY - DAILY RSI, QSX2 2012/09/07, Cndl, QSX2 2012/09/07, 1746, /4, 1736, /4 2MA, QSX2 2012/09/07, /4 +, / StochS, QSX2 2012/09/07, , StochS, QSX2 2012/09/07, , April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 Sep 12 1/8

18 CME DEC'12 SOYMEAL - DAILY RSI, QSMZ2 2012/09/07, USD Sn 2MA, QSMZ2 2012/09/07, 525.6, Cndl, QSMZ2 2012/09/07, 527.4, 527.9, 524.5, USD Sn StochS, QSMZ2 2012/09/07, , StochS, QSMZ2 2012/09/07, , April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 Sep USD Sn

19 / USD - DAILY RSI, Q= 2012/09/07, /USD 2MA, Q= 2012/09/07, , Cndl, Q= 2012/09/07, , , , /USD 8.7 StochS, Q= 2012/09/07, , StochS, Q= 2012/09/07, , Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 Jun 12 Jul 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 USD / EUR - DAILY RSI, QEUR= 2012/09/07, USD /USD 30 2MA, QEUR= 2012/09/07, , Cndl, QEUR= 2012/09/07, , , , USD StochS, QEUR= 2012/09/07, , StochS, QEUR= 2012/09/07, , April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 Sep 12 4 USD

20 BREN CRUDE BFO - DAILY RSI, QBFO- 2012/09/07, USD Bbl 2MA, QBFO- 2012/09/07, , Cndl, QBFO- 2012/09/07, , , , USD Bbl StochS, QBFO- 2012/09/07, , StochS, QBFO- 2012/09/07, , April 2012 May 2012 June 2012 July 2012 August 2012 Sep USD Bbl F-wise Capital (Pty) Ltd is a member of the Johannesburg Securities Exchange, and a wholly owned subsidiary of Farmwise Grains(Pty)Ltd Some text, images and any other material contained or displayed are proprietary to F-wise Capital (Pty) Ltd or Farmwise Grains(Pty)Ltd and constitutes valuable intellectual property intended for subscribers to services offered by F-wise Capital(Pty)Ltd or Farmwise Grains (Pty) Ltd. Any information provided in this report is for interest and educational purposes only, and does not constitute advice. F-wise Capital (Pty)Ltd or Farmwise Grains (Pty) Ltd will not be responsible for losses incurred as a result of the opinions expressed in this report. Since one deals in probabilities in market forecasting, the accuracy cannot be guaranteed. here is a risk of monetary loss in trading and/or investing on the financial markets. F-wise Capital (Pty) or Farmwise Grains (Pty)Ltd does not warrant the integrity of this communication or that it is free of errors, viruses, interception or interference. For more information about Farmwise Grains(Pty)Ltd or F-wise Capital(Pty)Ltd, visit our website at

Rudi Swanepoel. Fax:

Rudi Swanepoel. Fax: Commodity Future CME CORN FUURES Main Board Month Close Change Last Change CME Corn Sep'13 4811/2 163/4 4781/4-31/4 CME Corn Dec'13 4721/4 17 4691/4-3 CME Corn Mar'14 4841/2 161/4 4821/2-2 CME Corn May'14