EU Market Situation for Poultry. Civil Dialogue Group. 25 October 2016
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- Georgina Charles
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1 EU Market Situation for Poultry Civil Dialogue Group 25 October 216
2 Thousand Tons F O R E C A S T Experts EU production forecast on Poultry and Rabbit (Missing data (BE-EL-AT-RO-LT-SE) - No expert (BG-EE-LV-MT-SK) Total Poultry Broiler Turkey Duck Rabbit % 215/214 % 215/216 % 217/216 Total Poultry % + 2.5% + 1.3% Broiler % + 2.2% + 1.7% Turkey % + 6.2% + 1.5% Duck % - 3.% + 7.1% Rabbit % % - 2.1% EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
3 F O R E C A S T Experts EU production forecast of Poultry Meat Qty in 1 tonnes 1 5 PL FR DE UK ES IT NL HU RO PT BE EL CZ DK LT IE FI AT BG SK SE HR SI CY LV EE MT PL FR DE UK ES IT NL HU RO PT BE EL CZ DK LT IE FI AT BG SK SE HR SI CY LV EE MT EU / % - 2.5% -.7% + 2.5% + 1.8% + 4.4% + 5.5% + 8.6% + 2.7% + 1.5% +.% + 1.1% + 3.1% + 6.1% + 5.8% + 1.4% +.2% +.% +.% +.% +.% + 1.7% + 1.5% % +.% +.% +.% + 2.5% / % + 1.6% +.% + 2.% - 2.1% +.2% - 1.3% + 4.3% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% + 3.2% +.% +.% + 7.6% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% + 2.1% +.% +.% +.% + 1.3% EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
4 F O R E C A S T Experts EU production forecast of Broiler Meat Qty in 1 tonnes 1 5 PL UK DE ES FR NL IT HU RO PT BE EL DK CZ IE SE FI AT SK BG HR LT SI CY LV EE MT PL UK DE ES FR NL IT HU RO PT BE EL DK CZ IE SE FI AT SK BG HR LT SI CY LV EE MT EU / % + 3.8% - 1.9% +.2% - 2.2% + 8.8% + 4.9% % + 2.% + 1.9% +.% - 2.6% + 6.1% + 2.8% +.% + 4.4% +.4% +.% +.% +.% + 7.3% +.% +.9% % +.% +.% +.% + 2.2% / % + 2.% +.4% -.8% +.5% - 4.4% +.5% + 5.% +.% +.% +.% +.% + 3.2% +.% +.% +.% + 7.3% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% + 2.1% +.% +.% +.% + 1.7% EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
5 F O R E C A S T Experts EU production forecast of Turkey Meat Qty in 1 tonnes PL DE FR IT ES UK HU PT NL AT HR RO FI CZ SI SE IE BE EL CY SK DK BG LT LV EE MT PL DE FR IT ES UK HU PT NL AT HR RO FI CZ SI SE IE BE EL CY SK DK BG LT LV EE MT EU / % +6.% +5.7% +3.8% +3.7% -7.% +1.2% +1.8% +.% +.% +33.% +26.3% -2.7% +25.% -2.2% +8.1% -7.1% +.% +.% -83.2% +.% +.% +.% +6.2% / % -1.2% -1.6% +.% +.% +2.1% +3.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +12.3% +.% +.% +.% -46.2% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +1.5% EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
6 F O R E C A S T Experts EU production forecast of Duck Meat Qty in 1 tonnes 1 5 FR HU DE PL UK BG NL PT CZ IT IE ES SK HR DK EL AT BE SI SE RO FI LT CY LV EE MT FR HU DE PL UK BG NL PT CZ IT IE ES SK HR DK EL AT BE SI SE RO FI LT CY LV EE MT EU / % +13.5% +.2% +11.5% -1.7% +.% +6.3% +2.% -3.6% -11.1% +11.1% +2.% +.% -5.5% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% -3.% / % +4.2% +.% +.% +.% +.% +5.9% +.% +.% -6.3% +.% +11.1% +.% -3.6% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +7.1% EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
7 F O R E C A S T Experts EU production forecast of Rabbit Meat Qty in 1 tonnes FR ES IT BE CZ PT NL EL PL SK AT BG UK DE HU SE RO DK FI LT HR IE CY LV EE SI MT FR ES IT BE CZ PT NL EL PL SK AT BG UK DE HU SE RO DK FI LT HR IE CY LV EE SI MT EU /15-2.5% % +.% +.% +.% + 1.7% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% % /16-1.9% - 5.7% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% +.% - 1.6% - 2.1% EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
8 -14.6% -3.% -3.5% -.7% 7.1% 7.% 6.7% 6.3% 6.% 5.6% 5.6% 4.6% 4.4% 4.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 1.5%.2%.%.% 4.9% 14.3% 12.8% 12.5% 11.3% 1.9% 9.6% 16.5% P R O D U C T I O N Change in Poultry slaughter - July 215/ July % + 15% + 1% + 5% + % - 5% - 1% - 15% - 2% IE DK PL GR LT SI FI PT IT RO BG ES HU HR CY NL BE SE UK AT CZ DE EE LU LV MT FR SK EU EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
9 P R O D U C T I O N Placings of broiler chicks (1 pieces) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
10 P R O D U C T I O N Forecast and Production of broiler (In tonnes) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
11 $ / tonne C e r e a l P r i c e s World cereal prices ($/t) Wheat - US SRW Gulf $ 185 Maize - FR Bordeaux $ 181 Wheat - FR Cl. 1 Rouen $ 181 Wheat - Black Sea Milling $ 174 Maize - US 3YC Gulf $ 164 Barley-FR Dlvd Rouen feed $ 148 EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
12 $/tonne C e r e a l P r i c e s Soyameal world quotations US$/tonne 55 5 Source: IGC Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Brazil Paranagua US Gulf Argentina Up River EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
13 Prices / 1 kg P R I C E S E V O L U T I O N S I N C E EU W E E K P R I C E S 41 last WEEK last MONTH last YEAR BROILER % -.2% - 5.5% /1 kg carcase weight EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
14 / 1 kg uro/ 1kg P R I C E S E U E V O L U T I O N B R O I L E R BROILER EU WEEKLY AVERAGE PRICE EVOLUTION Evolution of the weekly EU average price for Broiler Latest price (Week 18) : EUR/1 kg Avg Evolution compared same period last year (Week 18) : - 3.6% Avg Source: MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 546/23) EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
15 / 1 kg W O R L D M A R K E T B R O I L E R P R I C E S EU US & BR 225 E U, U S A & B R A Z I L B R O I L E R P R I C E S , 185, 16, 135, 11, Broiler prices in EU, USA and Brazil ( EUR / 1kg ) Broiler prices in EU, USA & Brazil in uro/ 1kg 177, ,24 79, EU US , , broiler EU US broiler BR Broiler EU broiler uro Sources : EU = weighted average of MS prices - Broiler 65% US broiler uro US = weekly USDA prices - Fresh chicken grade A,Chicago BR = average of prices in main producing states - (Aveworld.com.br) BR Broiler uro BR EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
16 T R A D E E U I M P O R T S B r o i l e r P r o d u c t s Imports of Poultry meat from selected origins Jan-Aug 16 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Aug 15 Brazil % % % % % + 4% Thailand % % % % % + 6% Ukraine 276.% % % % + 2% Chile % % % % % + 72% China % % % % % - 6% Argentina % % % % % - 27% Switzerland % % % % % - 9% Israel % % % % % + 17% Others % % % % % #N/A Extra-EU % change - 5.6% + 4.8% + 3.1% + 6.3% EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
17 TONNES cw 1 EUR T R A D E E U I M P O R T S B r o i l e r EU Poultry meat Imports EU IMPORTS of Poultry Meat (TONNES cwe) EU IMPORTS of Poultry Meat (1 EUR) Jan-Aug 14 Jan-Aug 15 Jan-Aug 16 Jan-Aug 14 Jan-Aug 15 Jan-Aug 16 Brazil Thailand Ukraine Chile China Other origins Brazil Thailand Ukraine Chile China Other origins EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
18 T R A D E E U E X P O R T S B r o i l e r P r o d u c t s Exports of Poultry Meat to Selected Destinations Jan-Aug 16 EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216 Compared tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Aug 15 South Africa % % % % % + 34% Philippines % % % % % + 38% Benin % % % % % - 2% Saudi Arabia % % % % % - 12% Hong Kong % % % % % + 42% Ukraine % % % % % + 34% Ghana % % % % % + 7% Vietnam % % % % % + 27% Malaysia % % % % % + 23% Congo (Dem. Rep.) % % % % % - 5% Russia % % % % 764.1% + 4% Other Destinations % % % % % Extra-EU % change -.2% + 5.3% -.9% + 9.3%
19 TONNES cw 1 EUR T R A D E E U E X P O R T S B r o i l e r EU Poultry meat Export EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (TONNES cwe) EU EXPORTS of Poultry Meat (1 EUR) Jan-Aug 14 Jan-Aug 15 Jan-Aug Jan-Aug 14 Jan-Aug 15 Jan-Aug South Africa Philippines Benin Saudi Arabia Hong Kong Other destinations * South Africa Philippines Benin Saudi Arabia Hong Kong Other destinations * * countries trading less than (' EUR) EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
20 in 1 Tonnes cwe T R A D E B A L A N C E EU Poultry meat Trade Balance IMPORTS EXPORTS Jan- Aug 16 EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
21 T R A D E B A L A N C E EU Poultry meat trade balance (in 1 euros) IMPORTS EXPORTS in 1 Euros Jan-Aug 16 EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
22 EUROPA SITE MARKETS Where to find data: htm Click on link: Poultry Click on link: Presentations and prices (righthand side under: in this chapter) Choose the item (link) you want Poultry dashboard -meat-dashboard_en.pdf EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
23 Trade Production World Trade In 1 tonnes PW In 1 tonnes PW Tonnes Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A World Quotations / 1 kg Placings Broiler Prices / 1 kg Overall Poultry Meat DG AGRI DASHBOARD : POULTRY MEAT Last update: E V O L U T I O N S I N C E EU W E E K P R I C E S 38 last WEEK last MONTH last YEAR BROILER EU WEEKLY AVERAGE PRICE EVOLUTION Avg Forecast and Production of poultry meat Turkey 15% Duck 5% BROILER /1 kg carcase weight +.7% -.2% - 6.4% E U, U S A & B R A Z I L B R O I L E R P R I C E S EUR / USD EUR / BRL Placings of broiler chicks Forecast and Production of broiler ( 1 pieces ) ( Tonnes ) Please include the full poultry dashboard so as to show what data people can get when clicking on the individual figures EU Main Producers ( 1 Tonnes product weight) PL % FR % UK % EU US BR EU Poultry meat production ( Forecasts 215 and 216 based on estimations ) 1% 11% 13% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 14% 125% 1% 75% World Main EXPORTERS ( 89% of Total Exports ) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec : : Broiler 8% Consumption per capita in retail => 22.5 (kg) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec World Main IMPORTERS ( 69% of Total Imports ) 214 : : MSs = 71% of total production Other % IT % ES % DE % Year 215 Total = (+3.8% over 214) e 216f EU Production EU Consumption Self-sufficiency (in %) 5% 25% % Brazil United States EU Hong Kong & China Thailand Japan Hong Kong + China Mexico EU South Africa EU Exports evolution ( 1 Tonnes carcase weight) Jan-Jul 15 Jan-Jul 16 EU-28 EXPORTS ( Top Destinations in 215 / 16 ) POULTRY MEAT (Tonnes carcase weight) Period: Jan-Jul % Chg EU % South Africa % Benin % Philippines % Hong Kong % Saudi Arabia % Ukraine % Ghana % Other % EU Imports evolution ( 1 Tonnes carcase weight) #REF! #REF! Jan-Jul 15 Jan-Jul 16 EU-28 IMPORTS ( Main Partners in 215 / 16 ) POULTRY Meat (Tonnes carcase weight) Period: Jan-Jul % Chg EU % Brazil % Thailand % Ukraine % Chile % China % Argentina % Switzerland % Other % Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat Sources : European Commission (DG ESTAT, DG AGRI), MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 1249/28 and Regulation (EC) 617/28), GTA, EU market situation for Poultry 25 October 216
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