Prices indeed dropped on Thursday, aided by a surprise increase in crude oil supplies caused by stronger imports.
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1 Trump s war on OPEC Farm fuel prices resist President s attempt to jawbone cartel By Bryce Knorr, senior grain market analyst For a day or two, at least, it looked like President Trump s attempt to tweet energy prices lower might work. REDUCE PRICING NOW! was his all-caps Twitter message to OPEC on Independence Day. Prices indeed dropped on Thursday, aided by a surprise increase in crude oil supplies caused by stronger imports. But today s reversal higher by crude suggests the President may need a stick bigger than social media to lower prices. While Saudi Arabia and Russia appear ready to increase production, it s unclear whether that will be enough to offset ongoing losses from Venezuela and Libya, and reduced exports from Iran caused by renewed U.S. sanctions. Iran had threats of its on Twitter, suggesting it would block the crucial Straits of Hormuz a choke point for 20% of the world s crude shipments. While the U.S. Navy would have something to say about any such effort, the war of words didn t convince traders to abandon long positions just yet. Money managers began buying crude again last week, adding more than $5 billion in futures and options to their portfolios. The move back higher in crude came at a time when Midwest cash diesel prices bucked a short move lower. Midwest diesel supplies dropped last week despite rising production in the region, falling to their lowest level since the start of the year. Normally summertime sees stocks building as agricultural use slows down. But refineries have been buying inventory off the market to fulfill contracts, an indication they can t keep up with demand. That s keeping basis firm against ultra-low sulfur diesel futures delivered in New York Harbor. Fundamentals of supply and demand aren t the problem for propane prices. They re up a dime from June lows despite an increase in stocks above year-ago levels. Propane often ignores the fundamentals of its market to follow crude, which it competes with as an industrial feedstock. Propane prices usually confirm a post-winter low in July, then move higher to build inventories for winter. As a result, farmers hoping for lower prices on farm fuels for running harvest equipment or drying crops may have to either be patient risking a move higher still or bite the bullet and lock some of their needs in now. The best argument for a pullback in prices likely would come from turbulence in other markets a meltdown on Wall Street caused by any one of any number of potential threats: trade wars, Brexit, political instability, etc. Crude oil continues to be fairly valued around $65 a barrel according to my model based on supply and demand. Based on that prognosis and current conditions, prices have hit their projected high for the quarter, though a move to $83 couldn t be ruled out in a worst-case scenario. In June I recommend locking in a third of fall diesel needs. Any pullback now should be used to complete pricing. That goes for propane too. I previously recommended locking in half the propane needed for fall drying. Higher energy prices do have a silver lining, lending support to the ethanol industry. Though production dipped slightly last week, it appears USDA may be 25 to 50 million bushels too low on its estimate of corn usage. Plants were more efficient in May but prices of the biofuel are competitive for blending as gasoline demand peaks for the summer driving season.
2 net position long/short Crude Oil Futures and Options Managed Money Crude Oil Futures $ $ $ $ $ $20 0 1/1/2014 1/1/2015 1/1/2016 1/1/2017 1/1/2018 $0 Source: CFTC, NYME/CME Crude Oil Commitment of Traders - Crude Oil ,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 - Crude Oil Open Interest
3 U.S. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION AND RIG COUNTS Production Rig Counts thousand barrels/day oil and gas rigs Source: U.S. EIA, Baker-Hughes U.S. CRUDE OIL STOCKS Current 5-Year Min. 5-Year Max. million barrels
4 Stocks WEEKLY ETHANOL PRODUCTION AND STOCKS Production thousand barrels /1/16 11/1/16 1/1/17 3/1/17 5/1/17 7/1/17 9/1/17 11/1/17 1/1/18 3/1/18 5/1/ thousand barrels/day Ending stocks Daily Production 2.95 ETHANOL PRODUCTION GALLONS FROM EACH BUSHEL USED Sep 14 Jan 15 May 15 Sep 15 Jan 16 May 16 Sep 16 Jan 17 May 17 Sep 17 Jan 18 May 18
5 Average Corn Belt Ethanol Plant Margins $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 Average Corn Belt Ethanol Prices $2.40 $2.20 $2.00 $1.80 $1.60 $1.40 $1.20 $1.00
6 U.S. GASOLINE STOCKS 270 Current 5-Year Min. 5-Year Max. 250 million barrels DAYS OF GASOLINE SUPPLIES Current Year Prior Year
7 REFINERY CAPACITY UTILIZATION 100 Current Year Prior Year 95 per cent TOTAL PETROLEUM PRODUCT EXPORTS thousand barrels per day
8 thousand barrels MIDWEST DIESEL Stocks Production thousand barrels/day
9 MID CONTINENT DIESEL SEASONAL cents/gal /5 8/5 9/5 10/5 11/5 12/5 1/5 2/5 3/5 4/5 5/5 6/5 MID CONTINENT DIESEL SEASONAL BASIS $0.20 $ cents/gal $0.10 $0.05 $0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 7/5 8/5 9/5 10/5 11/5 12/5 1/5 2/5 3/5 4/5 5/5 6/5
10 330 GROUP 3 DIESEL SEASONAL /1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 $0.15 $0.10 GROUP 3 DIESEL SEASONAL BASIS $0.05 $0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1
11 U.S. DIESEL STOCKS 180 Current 5-Year Min. 5-Year Max million barrels DAYS OF DISTILLATE SUPPLIES
12 Crude oil $77 ENERGY FUTURES PRICE CURVE Diesel $2.30 $72 $2.20 $67 $2.10 $62 $2.00 $57 Crude oil Diesel $1.90 $52 $1.80 $47 Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Jul 2020 Jul 2021 $ DIESEL SWAPS Mid Continent Group
13 U.S. PROPANE STOCKS 115 Current 5-Year Min. 5-Year Max million barrels DAYS OF PROPANE SUPPLIES
14 TOTAL PROPANE SUPPLIED (DEMAND) thousand barrels per day Spot propane prices vs Crude oil $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Mid-Continent Propane Crude Oil
15 Seasonal propane prices (Mont Belvieu, Texas) Average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Av e rage Seasonal propane prices (Conway, Kansas) Average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
16 CME Swaps Curve Mont Belvieu, TX wholesale price $1.00 $0.95 $0.90 $0.85 $0.80 $0.75 $0.70 $0.65 $0.60 $0.55 $0.50 JLY Oct 19 Jan 19 Apr JLY Oct 20 Jan 20 Apr JLY Oct 21 Jan 21 Apr JLY Oct per gallon 22 Jan 22 Apr JLY Oct Source: CME Group per gallon $0.85 $0.80 $0.75 $0.70 $0.65 $0.60 $0.55 $0.50 $0.45 CME Swaps Curve Conway Kansas wholesale price Source: CME Group
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