Wheat Marketing Situation

Transcription

1 Wheat Marketing Situation Prepared by: Darrell L. Hanavan Executive Director Colorado Wheat Administrative Committee If you would like to receive an when this report is updated, to be added to our mailing list. Updated March 16, 2012

2 WHAT DETERMINES THE PRICE OF WHEAT? $5.70 per bushel (national average price during marketing year) * Total Use (2,417,000,000 bu.) = Domestic Use (1,128,000,000 bu.) + Exports (1.289,000,000 bu.) * Domestic Use = 1,128,000,000 bu. X $5.70 per bu./nat. avg. price = $2.66 per bu. or 47% 2,417,000,000 bu. Food (926,000,000 bu.)* = $2.18 per bu. Feed (132,000,000 bu.) =.31 Seed (71,000,000 bu.) =.17. $2.66 *Per Capita Consumption of Wheat in 2010 = pounds * Exports*= 1,289,000,000 bu. X $5.70 per bu./nat. avg.price = $3.04 per bu. or 53% 2,417,000,000 bu. Top Export Customers* (1,000 Metric Tons) (Million Bushels) (Per Bushel) 1. Egypt 4, Nigeria 3, Japan 3, Mexico 2, Philippines 1, Korean Republic 1, Iraq 1, Turkey Peru Taiwan * In the marketing year, each one million metric ton (36,743,710 bu.) of exports was valued at $.087 per bushel. Page 1

3 U.S. Average Wheat Prices All Wheat, (June-May) Season Marketing 12-Month Average Year June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Average Price Monthly Average Page 2

4 U.S. Average Wheat Prices Winter Wheat, (June-May) Season Marketing 12-Month Average Year June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Average Price Monthly Average Page 3

5 U.S. Monthly Marketings All Wheat, (Percent) Marketing Year June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Total Monthly Average Page 4

6 U.S. Average Wheat Prices (July-June) Marketing June Average Highest Monthly Price/Bushel 12-Month Year Price/Bu. Average Price/Bu. Gain Month Average December October April June May April March June June May Year Average February - June 4.68 Page 5

7 Colorado Average Wheat Prices All Wheat, (July-June) Season Marketing 12-Month Average Year July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Average Price Monthly Average Page 6

8 Colorado Average Wheat Prices Winter Wheat, (July-June) Marketing 12-Month Year July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Average Monthly Average Page 7

9 Season Average Price Page 7

10 Colorado Monthly Marketings All Wheat, (Percent) Marketing Year July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Total Monthly Average Page 8

11 Colorado Average Wheat Prices (July-June) Marketing July Average Highest Monthly Price/Bushel 12-Month Year Price/Bu. Average Price/Bu. Gain Month Average June October April December May June February August July July Year Average January - June 4.55 Page 9

12 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 2011/12 Projections Item 2009/ /11 Est. February March Area Million Acres Planted Harvested Yield per harvested acre Million Bushels Beginning stocks Production 2,218 2,207 1,999 1,999 Imports Supply, total 2,993 3,279 2,982 2,982 Food Seed Feed and residual Domestic, total 1,138 1,128 1,162 1,157 Exports 879 1, ,000 Use, total 2,018 2,417 2,137 2,157 Ending stocks CCC inventory Free stocks Outstanding loans Avg. farm price ($/bu) Page 10

13 U.S. & World Wheat Ending Stocks U.S. World Ending Stocks as Ending Stocks Stocks as Average Stocks Percent Percent Year Price (bu.) (mil. Bushels) of Use (mil. bushels) (mil. mt.) of Use , , , , , , , , , , Year Average , (est.) , Page 11

14 U.S. Wheat/Corn Price Ratio U.S. Avg. U.S. Avg. Wheat/ Bushels Marketing Price for Price for Corn Price of Wheat Year Wheat Corn Ratio Fed Yr. Avg U.S. Wheat/Corn Price Ratio U.S. Avg. U.S. Avg. Wheat/ Marketing Price for Price for Corn Price Year-2011 Wheat Corn Ratio January February March April May June July August September October November December Average Colorado Wheat/Corn Price Ratio CO Avg. CO Avg. Wheat/ Marketing Price for Price for Corn Price Year Wheat Corn Ratio Page 12

15 Yr. Avg Page 12

16 All Wheat, U.S., Yield Per Acres Acres Harvested Acre Production Year Planted Harvested (Bushels) (Bushels) ,318,000 45,824, ,605,878, ,141,000 53,063, ,344,415, ,644,000 49,969, ,156,790, ,214,000 50,104, ,103,325, ,334,000 46,800, ,808,416, ,460,000 50,999, ,051,088, ,193,000 55,699, ,499,164, ,168,000 49,893, ,218,061, ,593,000 47,619, ,206,916, ,409,000 45,715, ,008,039, (Avg.) 58,747,400 49,568, ,100,209, (est.) Page 13

17 Winter Wheat, U.S., Yield Per Acres Acres Harvested Acre Production Year Planted Harvested (Bushels) (Bushels) ,766,000 29,742, ,137,001, ,384,000 36,753, ,716,376, ,320,000 34,432, ,497,979, ,418,000 33,779, ,497,764, ,565,000 31,107, ,294,461, ,012,000 35,938, ,499,241, ,307,000 39,608, ,867,333, ,346,000 34,510, ,524,608, ,335,000 31,749, ,484,861, ,646,000 32,314, ,493,677, (Avg.) 42,409,900 33,993, ,501,330, (est.) 41,947,000 Page 14

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20 Spring Wheat, U.S., Yield Per Acres Acres Harvested Acre Production Year Planted Harvested (Bushels) (Bushels) ,639,000 13,373, ,917, ,842,000 13,441, ,402, ,763,000 13,174, ,918, ,036,000 13,609, ,456, ,899,000 13,878, ,480, ,292,000 12,942, ,623, ,165,000 13,517, ,004, ,268,000 12,955, ,411, ,698,000 13,359, ,975, ,394,000 12,079, ,473, (Avg.) 13,899,600 13,232, ,465, (est.) Page 15

21 Durum Wheat, U.S., Yield Per Acres Acres Harvested Acre Production Year Planted Harvested (Bushels) (Bushels) ,913,000 2,709, ,960, ,915,000 2,869, ,637, ,561,000 2,363, ,893, ,760,000 2,716, ,105, ,870,000 1,815, ,475, ,156,000 2,119, ,224, ,721,000 2,574, ,827, ,554,000 2,428, ,042, ,560,000 2,519, ,080, ,369,000 1,322, ,889, (Avg.) 2,437,900 2,343, ,413, (est.) Page 16

22 All Wheat, Colorado, Yield Per Acres Acres Harvested Acre Production Year Planted Harvested (Bushels) (Bushels) ,375,000 1,670, ,100, ,630,000 2,229, ,160, ,315,000 1,714, ,880, ,570,000 2,219, ,035, ,170,000 1,919, ,515, ,520,000 2,369, ,980, ,190,000 1,936, ,700, ,630,000 2,479, ,610, ,478,000 2,377, ,234, ,345,000 2,044, ,828, (Avg.) 2,422,300 2,095, ,204, (est.) Page 17

23 Winter Wheat, Colorado, Yield Per Acres Acres Harvested Acre Production Year Planted Harvested (Bushels) (Bushels) ,350,000 1,650, ,300, ,600,000 2,200, ,000, ,300,000 1,700, ,900, ,550,000 2,200, ,800, ,150,000 1,900, ,900, ,500,000 2,350, ,650, ,150,000 1,900, ,000, ,600,000 2,450, ,000, ,450,000 2,350, ,750, ,300,000 2,000, ,000, (Avg.) 2,395,000 2,070, ,230, (est.) 2,400,000 Page 18

24 Spring Wheat, Colorado, Yield Per Acres Acres Harvested Acre Production Year Planted Harvested (Bushels) (Bushels) ,000 20, ,800, ,000 29, ,160, ,000 14, , ,000 19, ,235, ,000 19, ,615, ,000 19, ,330, ,000 36, ,700, ,000 29, ,610, ,000 27, ,484, ,000 44, ,828, (Avg.) 27,300 25, ,974, (est.) Page 19

25 Wheat Production and Price Projections Marketing Year (June 1- May 31) Key Factors: * U.S. Wheat Production ( ) * World Wheat Production ( ) * U.S. and World Wheat Ending Stocks * Weather Price rises above $7.30 per bushel if the U.S. all-wheat crop is below billion bushels decreasing ending stocks. Price falls below $7.30 per bushel if the U.S. all-wheat crop is above billion bushels increasing ending stocks. 10-year average U.S. all-wheat crop is billion bushels. U.S. all-wheat crop is currently estimated at billion bushels. Page 20