DAILY MARKET REPORT 12 APRIL 2019

Transcription

1 DAILY MARKET REPORT 12 APRIL 2019 Unigrain (Pty) Ltd Tel. No. : Fax. No. : Economic Indicators Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change Rand/Dollar Euro/Dollar Gold Platinum Brent Crude JSE Top Dow Jones Indus Avg The changes in the table above is from previous Safex close (12h00) The rand is weaker this morning and trading around R13.97/$ but the rand is off the highs seen at R14.05/$ in the session yesterday. The dollar is slightly weaker against the euro. South African equities did come under some pressure with the JSE Top40 ending 0.42% higher. In the US the dollar is slightly weaker and trading around to the euro this morning and the Dow ended mostly flat in the daytime session and this morning the Dow futures are trading 0.14% higher. Commodity prices are lower this morning with gold and platinum prices 0.89% and 0.73% lower than the levels seen yesterday and Brent crude oil prices also pulled lower and is 0.31% lower than the levels seen yesterday. US Dollar/South African Rand Key data releases: Chinese trade balance US consumer sentiment

2 International Market Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change CME Jul maize CME Dec maize CME Jul wheat KCBT Jul wheat KCBT Dec wheat Matif May wheat (Euro/ton) CME Jul soybeans Jul CME maize R/ton Dec CME maize R/ton Jul CME wheat R/ton Jul KCBT wheat R/ton Dec KCBT wheat R/ton Jul CME soybeans R/ton The changes in the table above is from Safex close (12h00) Corn US maize prices ended lower in the session yesterday with the disappointing export sales numbers adding some pressure while the ample old crop stocks also weighed on prices. This morning the electronic prices are lower. The weekly US export sales figures of maize was reported at tons old and new crops combined which was below the expectations. The Brazilian government agency Conab raised their 2018/19 maize crop estimate to 94 million tons which is up from their previous estimate seen at 92.8 million tons. Soybeans Wheat US soybean contracts ended lower in the session yesterday with the weak export sales data and the growing South American soybean crops adding some pressure. This morning the electronic soybean prices are also lower. The weekly US export sales figures of soybeans was reported at only tons old and new crops combined which was below the market expectations. The Brazilian government agency Conab estimated the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop at million tons which is up from their previous estimate seen at million tons. US wheat prices managed some gains in the session yesterday on some short covering that was seen and concerns about possible spring wheat planting delays providing support. This morning the electronic prices are slightly higher. The weekly US export sales figures of wheat was reported at tons old and new crops combined which was in line with the market expectations. Heavy snow and blizzard conditions in South Dakota could result in some early US spring wheat planting delays. In the world wheat export market Algeria bought tons of optional origin wheat which will most likely be sourced from France. 2

3 US rainfall forecast for the week ahead US 6-10 Day precipiation forecast US 6-10 Day temperature forecast 3

4 South African Market 11 April 2019 Maize South African maize prices opened the day lower with some follow through selling that was seen at the start of the session. July white maize started the day at R2664 and traded to a low of R2655 with some buying/short covering that was seen after that. July white maize posted some good gains breaking above the 200-day average once again (seen at R2700) and traded to an intraday high of R2722 with the market ending the day at the session high. The strong close that was seen could be supportive for the market in the sessions ahead. The weekly South African maize exports for the week ending the 5 th of April indicated that tons of maize was exported including tons of white maize and tons of yellow maize. US maize prices are lower this morning which despite the weaker rand is pointing to lower parity prices this morning. Local white maize prices ended higher in the session with some short covering that was seen and the strong close that was seen could be supportive for local prices in the session today. Wheat White Maize MTM Change High Low May Jul Dec Yellow Maize May Jul Dec Wheat May Jul Dec Sunflower May Jul Soybeans May Jul CME Corn Jul Dec South African wheat contracts opened the day lower with the market trading on both sides of the opening after that. July wheat contracts started the day at R4588 and the market traded to a low of R4570 with the early rand strength weighing on our market. The rand did give up some ground after that and local wheat posted some gains after that. July wheat broke above its 100-day average and traded to an intraday high of R4623 but the market ended the day off the session highs ending the day around R4600. The weekly South African wheat imports for the week ending the 5 th of April indicated that tons of wheat was imported. The wheat originated from Lithuania. US CME and KCBT wheat prices are higher this morning and the rand is also weaker supporting parity prices. The weaker rand could be supportive for local wheat in the session today. 4

5 Oilseeds South African soybean contracts opened the day lower with some buying/short covering that was seen after that. May-19 soybean contracts started the day at R4748 which was also the intraday low of the session with our market attempting some gains after that. Soybean contracts traded to an intraday high of R4800 but the market did get some resistance at the 9-day average and prices ended the day high but well off the session highs. Sunflower seed contracts opened the day lower with some more selling that was seen after that. May-19 sunflower seed started the day at R5014 and briefly traded to a high of R5023 with our market trading lower after that. Sunflower seed contracts broke below R5000 and traded to a low of R4981 and the market ended the day rather close to the session lows. US soybean contracts are lower this morning which is pointing to lower parity prices despite the weaker rand. The lower parity prices could weigh on our oilseed markets in the session today. Weather conditions Cumulative rainfall forecast for the week ahead Technical Graphs Safex Jul maize prices CME Jul corn prices 5

6 Daily MAWN9 Cndl, MAWN9, Trade Price 2019/04/11, , , , N/A, N/A SMA, MAWN9, Trade Price(Last), /04/11, SMA, MAWN9, Trade Price(Last), /04/11, SMA, MAWN9, Trade Price(Last), /04/11, SMA, MAWN9, Trade Price(Last), /04/11, /05/ /05/02 (JHB) Price ZAR T RSI, MAWN9, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing 2019/04/11, Value ZAR T May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 February 2019 March 2019 April

7 Daily CN9 Cndl, CN9, Trade Price, 2019/04/12, 369, 369, 368, 368, -1, (-0.20%), SMA, CN9, Trade Price(Last), 40, 2019/04/12, 379, SMA, CN9, Trade Price(Last), 9, 2019/04/12, 370, SMA, CN9, Trade Price(Last), 100, 2019/04/12, /03/ /05/03 (CHG) Price USc Bsh RSI, CN9, Trade Price(Last), 14, Exponential, 2019/04/12, Value USc Bsh March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 February 2019 March 2019 April