BLACK SEA SUNSEED MARKETS & 2017/18 NEW-SEASON PROSPECTS

Transcription

1 BLACK SEA SUNSEED MARKETS & 2017/18 NEW-SEASON PROSPECTS AGRO-LOGISTICS FORUM 18 October 2017, Kishinev / MOLDOVA

2 AGENDA 1-THE ROLE OF SUNSEED GLOBALLY 2 BLACK SEA SUNSEED OUTLOOK /2018 NEW-SEASON PROSPECTS 4- PRESENTATION SUMMARY

3 THE ROLE OF SUNSEED GLOBALLY

4 IN THE LAST 2016/17 SEASON; WORLD OILSEEDS PRODUCTION WAS AROUND RECORD 560 MLN T. SUNSEED WAS THE 3RD BIGGEST OILSEED FOLLOWING SOYBEAN AND RAPESEED WITH 8.9% ( RECORD 50.0 MLN T ) SHARE.

5 GLOBAL OILSEEDS PRODUCTION ( MLN T ) Rapeseed 68 12% Cottonseed 39,5 7% Sunseed 50 9% Others 52,5 9% Soybean % 2016/17 Season, 560 Mln T total Source: SUNSEEDMAN, OIL WORLD, USDA

6 WHILE GLOBAL SUNSEED PRODUCTION WAS ONLY 7 8 MLN T IN 1960 s, IT CLIMBED TO AROUND 25 MLN T BY EARLY NEW- MILLENIUM AND DOUBLED SO FAR WITH THE SUPPORT OF BLACK SEA ESPECIALLY.

7 BLACK SEA SUNSEED OUTLOOK

8

9 IN OUR PRESENTATION WE WILL RATHER FOCUS ON UKRAINE, RUSSIA, ROMANIA, BULGARIA, TURKEY, MOLDOVA AND KAZAKHSTAN. SINCE GEORGIA ( 10 KMT ) AZERBAIJAN ( 20 KMT ) AND ARMENIA ( NIL ) HAVE NEGLIGIBLE SUNSEED PRODUCTIONS AND TRADES.

10 BLACK SEA & GLOBAL SUNSEED PRODUCTION Acreage ( Thd Hectare ) Yield ( Kgs/Decare ) Crop Size ( Thd T ) COUNTRY 2016/ / / / / /16 Ukraine Russia Romania Bulgaria Turkey* Moldova Kazakhistan BLACK SEA TOTAL Argentina China Hungary France USA South Afr. Rep Spain Serbia Others Total * kmt of Turkish confectionary and hybrid production are excluded.

11 AS YOU SEE FROM THE TABLE; BLACK SEA IS THE HEART OF GLOBAL SUNSEED PRODUCTION WITH 2/3 SHARE ( MLN T OF 50.0 MLN T ) IN 2016/17 SEASON.

12 AS YOU SEE FROM THE TABLE; UKRAINIAN ( MLN T ) AND RUSSIAN ( MLN T ) PRODUCTIONS OF TOTAL 27.0 MLN T WAS MORE THAN HALF OF GLOBAL SUNSEED PRODUCTION ( 50 MLN T ) IN 2016/17 SEASON.

13 AS YOU SEE FROM THE TABLE; EVEN WITH ONLY 93 KGS/DECARE OF KAZAKH YIELDS, BLACK SEA SUNSEED YIELD AVERAGE OF 190 KGS/DECARE WAS MORE THAN GLOBAL AVERAGE OF 182 KGS/DECARE IN 2016/17 SEASON.

14 FOLLOWING BLACK SEA/GLOBAL SUNSEED PRODUCTION AND YIELD COMPARISIONS, NOW LET S LOOK AT ALSO BLACK SEA/GLOBAL SUNSEED TRADE COMPARISON.

15 BLACK SEA & GLOBAL SUNSEED TRADE Exports ( Thd T ) Imports ( Thd T ) COUNTRY 2016/ /16 COUNTRY 2016/ /16 Romania Turkey** Bulgaria Romania Moldova Bulgaria Russia Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Ukraine*** 0 0 Turkey* 0 0 Moldova*** 0 0 BLACK SEA TOTAL BLACK SEA TOTAL Argentina Holland China France Serbia Spain USA Iran Hungary Uzbekistan France Pakistan Slovakia China Others Others Total Total * Turkey has only confectionary and hybrid seed exports. ** Turkish confectionary and hybrid seed imports are excluded. *** Ukrainian and Moldovian Sunseed imports of hybrid seeds were excluded.

16 AS YOU SEE FROM THE TABLE; BLACK SEA IS ALSO THE HEART OF GLOBAL SUNSEED EXPORTS WITH 61.5% SHARE ( 3.47 MLN T OF 5.64 MLN T ) IN 2016/17 SEASON.

17 AS YOU SEE FROM THE TABLE; ROMANIA ( 1.3 MLN T ) AND BULGARIA ( 0.65 MLN T ) WERE 2 GIANT EXPORTER COUNTRIES WITH TOTAL 1.95 MLN T OF 5.64 MLN T GLOBAL SUNSEED EXPORTS ( IE, 34.5% ) IN 2016/17 SEASON.

18 AS YOU SEE FROM THE TABLE; WHEREAS UKRAINE AND RUSSIA HAD MORE THAN HALF GLOBAL SUNSEED PRODUCTION, THEIR EXPORTS WERE ONLY 375 KMT OF RUSSIA AND 275 KMT OF UKRAINE IN 2016/17 SEASON.

19 10% SUNSEED EXPORT-DUTY IN UKRAINE AND 6.5% SUNSEED EXPORT DUTY IN RUSSIA AS WELL AS STIFF COMPETITION IN BETWEEN LOCAL SUNSEED EXPORTERS AND CRUSHERS ARE PREVENTING SUNSEED EXPORTS BY ALLOWING MORE SUNSEED CRUSHINGS AND SUNOIL EXPORTS ( PLEASE NOTE THAT UKRAINE AND RUSSIA ARE 2 BIG SUNOIL GLOBAL EXPORTERS ).

20 AS YOU SEE FROM THE TABLE; TURKEY WAS THE SECOND BIGGEST GLOBAL SUNSEED IMPORTER AFTER EU-28 WITH AROUND 620 KMT OF 5.27 MLN T GLOBAL SUNSEED IMPORTS IN 2016/17 SEASON.

21 AS YOU SEE FROM THE TABLE; THE MAIN OF ORIGINS OF TURKISH OIL-BEARING SUNSEED IMPORTS WERE RUSSIA ( 225 KMT ), MOLDOVA ( 205 KMT ), BULGARIA ( 95 KMT ), ROMANIA ( 35 KMT ), UKRAINE ( 30 KMT ) AND ARGENTINA ( 30 KMT ) IN 2016/17 SEASON.

22 SINCE TURKEY IS THE BIGGEST SUNSEED IMPORTER COUNTRY IN BLACK SEA, CIF MARMARA & DAP KAPIKULE PRICES MAY BE ALSO THE PROPER PRICE INDICATION.

23 01 January March August October January April August October January June September December April September November January April June September November January April June September November January April June August October December March May July September November January March May July September November January March May July September 2017 SUNSEED CIF MARMARA/DAP KAPIKULE PRICES ( $/mt ) BY 2008/ $/mt 30 April $/mt, 26 Dec 2008

24 AS YOU SEE; 2007/2008 SEASON WAS THE PEAK WITH AS HIGHER AS 910 $/MT CIF MARMARA/DAP KAPIKULE BY30 APRIL 2008.

25 AS YOU SEE; 2008/2009 SEASON WAS THE BOTTOM WITH AS LOWER AS 265 $/MT CIF MARMARA/DAP KAPIKULE BY26 DECEMBER 2008.

26 2017/2018 NEW-SEASON PROSPECTS

27 NOW, LET S LOOK AT OUR LATEST 2017/18 SEASON SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE FORECASTS BY MAJOR PRODUCERS IN BLACK SEA.

28 BLACK SEA & GLOBAL SUNSEED PRODUCTION Acreage ( Thd Hectare ) Yield ( Kgs/Decare ) Crop Size ( Thd T ) COUNTRY 2017/18 F 2016/ /18 F 2016/ /18 F 2016/17 Ukraine Russia Romania Bulgaria Turkey* Moldova Kazakhistan BLACK SEA TOTAL Argentina China Hungary France USA South Afr. Rep Spain Serbia Others Total * kmt of Turkish confectionary and hybrid production are excluded.

29 IN UKRAINE; IN ADDITION TO SLIGHTLY LOWER ACREAGE ( 6.25 MLN HA VS 6.35 ), UNFAVORABLE SUMMER 2017 WEATHER ONDITIONS DETERIORATED THE YIELD POTENTIALS. THEREFORE, THE NEW-CROP SIZE OF AROUND MLN T VS RECORD IS MORE LIKELY. HARVESTINGS ARE ALMOST OVER.

30 IN RUSSIA; ALBEIT SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACREAGE ( 7.85 MLN HA VS 7.75 ), UNFAVORABLE SUMMER 2017 WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATED THE YIELD POTENTIALS. THEREFORE, THE NEW-CROP SIZE OF AROUND MLN T VS RECORD IS MORE LIKELY. HARVESTINGS ARE JUST HALVED.

31 IN ROMANIA; IN ADDITION TO PARTLY HIGHER ACREAGE ( KHA VS ), PARTLY BETTER SUMMER 2017 WEATHER CONDITIONS RECOVERED THE YIELD POTENTIALS. THEREFORE, THE NEW-CROP SIZE OF AROUND 2.05 MLN T VS 1.9 IS MORE LIKELY. HARVESTINGS ARE VIRTUALLY OVER.

32 IN BULGARIA; IN ADDITION TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACREAGE ( 850 KHA VS 825 ), PARTLY BETTER SUMMER 2017 WEATHER CONDITIONS RECOVERED THE YIELD POTENTIALS. THEREFORE, THE NEW-CROP SIZE OF AROUND 2.0 MLN T VS 1.8 IS MORE LIKELY. HARVESTINGS ARE VIRTUALLY OVER.

33 IN TURKEY; IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER ACREAGE ( 675 KHA VS 585 ), PARTLY BETTER SUMMER 2017 WEATHER CONDITIONS RECOVERED THE YIELD POTENTIALS. THEREFORE, THE NEW-CROP SIZE OF AROUND RECORD KMT VS IS MORE LIKELY. HARVESTINGS ARE VIRTUALLY OVER.

34 IN MOLDOVA; ALBEIT STABLE ACREAGE ( 400 KHA ), UNFAVORABLE SUMMER 2017 WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATED THE YIELD POTENTIALS. THEREFORE, THE NEW-CROP SIZE OF AROUND 800 KMT VS RECORD 850 IS MORE LIKELY. HARVESTINGS ARE VIRTUALLY OVER.

35 WITH LOWER NEW-CROP SIZES IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA FOREMOST ; 2017/18 SEASON SUNSEED GLOBAL NEW-CROP IS LIKELY AS MLN T. VS RECORD 50 MLN T. OF 2016/17.

36 BLACK SEA & GLOBAL SUNSEED TRADE Exports ( Thd T ) Imports ( Thd T ) COUNTRY 2017/18F 2016/17 COUNTRY 2017/18F 2016/17 Romania Turkey** Bulgaria Romania Moldova Bulgaria Russia Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Ukraine*** 0 0 Turkey* 0 0 Moldova*** 0 0 BLACK SEA TOTAL BLACK SEA TOTAL Argentina Holland China France Serbia Spain USA Iran Hungary Uzbekistan France Pakistan Slovakia China Others Others Total Total * Turkey has only confectionary and hybrid seed exports. ** Turkish confectionary and hybrid seed imports are excluded. *** Ukrainian and Moldovian Sunseed imports of hybrid seeds were excluded.

37 FOLLOWING BETTER NEW-CROP SIZES; ROMANIAN ( 1.35 MLN T VS 1.3 ) AND BULGARIAN ( 0.75 MLN T VS 0.65 ) SUNSEED EXPORTS WILL BE HIGHER IN 2017/18 SEASON.

38 ALBEIT RECORD NEW-CROP SIZE; TURKISH SUNSEED IMPORTS ( 575 KMT VS 620 ) WILL BE STILL SOLID TO MEET HUGE LOCAL SUNOIL CONSUMPTION IN 2017/18 SEASON.

39 WITH BLACK SEA & GLOBAL SUNSEED NEW- CROP SUPPLY & DEMAND OUTLOOK; CURRENT SUNSEED PRICES ( AROUND $/MT FOB CONSTANTA & $/MT CIF MARMARA ) ARE UNDERVALUED AND SHOULD BE IMPROVED SOON.

40 NEVERTHELESS, WEATHER CONDITIONS IN RUSSIA FOR THE STILL UNHARVESTED SUNSEED FIELDS, WEATHER CONDITIONS IN USA DURING SOY HARVESTINGS, WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTH AMERICA DURING PLANTINGS/GROWINGS/HARVESTINGS, FED INTEREST RATE HIKE TIMELINE, EUR/USD PARITY, PETROL, BREXIT PROCESS, TRUMP UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC/GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS ARE THE MAJOR QUESTIONMARKS!!!

41 PRESENTATION SUMMARY

42 SUNSEED IS AMIDS THE MOST PRODUCED AND TRADED AGROCOMMODITIES OF THE WORLD. UKRAINE AND RUSSIA ARE 2 GIANTS IN GLOBAL SUNSEED PRODUCTION. ROMANIA AND BULGARIA ARE 2 GIANTS IN GLOBAL SUNSEED EXPORTS. TURKEY IS THE BIGGEST SUNSEED IMPORTER COUNTRY IN BLACK SEA. BLACK SEA, THE HEART OF GLOBAL SUN COMPLEX, WILL SUFFER DUE TO LOWER NEW-CROP SIZES IN UKRAINE AND RUSSIA BY 2017/18 SEASON. GLOBAL SUNSEED NEW-CROP SIZE WILL ALSO DROP TO MLN T VS RECORD 50 MLT T IN 2016/17 SEASON. CURRENT SUNSEED PRICES ARE UNDERVALUED WITH LOWER NEW-CROP SIZES AND SHOULD BE IMPROVED SOON. NEVERTHELESS, WEATHER CONDITIONS IN RUSSIA FOR THE STILL UNHARVESTED SUNSEED FIELDS, WEATHER CONDITIONS IN USA DURING SOY HARVESTINGS, WEATHER CONDITIONS IN SOUTH AMERICA DURING PLANTINGS/GROWINGS/HARVESTINGS, FED INTEREST RATE HIKE TIMELINE, EUR/USD PARITY, PETROL, BREXIT PROCESS, TRUMP UNCERTAINTY AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC/GEOPOLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS ARE THE MAJOR QUESTIONMARKS.

43 Great thanks for your kind attention Multumesc Большое спасибо

44 THE EXPERT SUPPORT ON REPORTING, ANALYSES, CONSULTING AND BROKERAGE AS PER OVER 19-YEAR SECTOR EXPERIENCE ( SINCE 24 DECEMBER 1998 ) VEYSEL KAYA veyselkaya@sunseedman.com SKYPE : SUNSEEDMAN GSM : Facebook: Linkedin: Twitter: