FlashMarket - October 2016
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- Meredith Walton
- 5 years ago
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1 - October 2016 Sugar #11 and #5 : prices October: a peak at 23.8cts/lb before speculators began to leave A highest was reached in October, with a peak on the 5 th of October, at 23.81cts/lb on the March 2017 issue (not reached since July 2012), thanks to speculators who were net buyers of more than 290,000 lots: 14.5Mt! But from this date onwards, speculators began to reduce their position by more than 1.5Mt, pushing the sugar value downwards. White sugar followed this movement, with a little inertia: the white premium again reached US$/t at the end of the month, and refined sugar remained close to580us/$-stillahighestsinceoctober2012. Nevertheless, fundamentals remained the same. The Brazilian harvest appears to be as expected, but will not be enough for the Asian appetite: China has just beguntosellitsstocks,indiamayreduceitsimportfees,andeveniftherenovationofthethaipolicygivesanewboosttoitsindustry,thiswillnotbeintheshort term.butthesefundamentalsmaynotbeenoughforspeculatorswhomayhavefeltthatthehighesthasalreadybeenreached.theyarestillnetbuyersofalmost 13Mt,buttheirtransfermaygoon,atleastuntilDecember, fortechnicalreasons(pp.1&2). Currencies moved this month compared to US$, mainly because of the US election: the Brazilian experienced another bumpy month, but finished the monthat3.14real/us$,ahighestsinceaugustwhichmadesugarlose5inreal.theeurolost2.5whichmadesugarstableineuro(pp.3&7). Ethanol increased in US and in Europe(after having reached a lowest) and stayed high in Brazil(p. 4). Cereals increased(here again after having reached a lowest, p.5).freightmovedinanantagonistwaybutsupramax,theoneusedforsugar,remainedfairlystable(p.8). White sugar (sugar#5, London, $/t) Raw sugar (sugar#11, NY, cts/lb) Raw sugar (sugar#11, NY, $/t) Settling date Dec ,5 596,8 1,3 0,2 Mar ,4 592,0-6,3-1,1 May ,8 584,4-7,4-1,3 Aug ,1 570,6-5,5-1,0 Mar 17 23,25 22,71-0,54-2,3 May 17 22,45 22,11-0,33-1,5 Jul 17 21,59 21,42-0,17-0,8 Oct 17 20,95 20,89-0,06-0,3 Mar ,7,7-12,0-2,3 May ,9 487,5-7,4-1,5 Jul ,1 472,3-3,7-0,8 Oct ,9 460,6-1,3-0,3 Premium Dec 16 vs. Mar 17 82,8 96,1 13,3 16, Raw & White sugar over the month (daily price according to term T, US$/t) /10/ /10/ /10/ /10/2016 Raw-T1 Raw-T2 Raw-T3 Raw-T4 White-T1 White-T2 White-T3 White-T4 Sugar#11 and #5 prices since January 2010 front term, US$/t $800 $700 $600 $ $400 $300 $ Raw sugar, NY White Sugar, London FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 1
2 Sugar #11 and #5 : open interest & non-commercial operators positions White sugar (Average weekly open interest x1,000 lots) Raw sugar (Average weekly open interest x1,000 lots) Dec 16 Mar 17 May 17 Aug 17 0 Mar 17 May 17 Jul 17 Oct 17 Term White sugar (sugar#5, London, 1lot=50t) Average weekly open interest per term (x1,000 lots) Raw sugar (sugar#11, NY, 1lot=112,000lb=50.8t) number number T1 37,2 32,7-4,5-12,2 486,2 467,3-18,9-3,9 T2 22,8 25,7 2,9 12,8 135,3 137,8 2,5 1,8 T3 15,6 16,7 1,1 7,1 97,2 115,1 18,0 18,5 T4 7,0 7,3 0,4 5,3 60,7 72,7 12,1 19,9 Total 91,2 94,6 3,4 3,8 828,9 852,7 23,8 2,9 Net position of speculators on sugar#11 in New-York & front term prices Net position of speculators, in lots (1lot : 50t) /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ Sugar#11 price, cts/lb Net position of speculators (non-commercial operators) Sugar #11 price FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 2
3 Sugar #11 : premium compared to Sugar#5 and prices in local currencies Front term white premium since January 2010 Front term, US$/t Price Changes since January 2013 Front term, in local currencies, from a Basis on the 01/01/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/2016 US$ Australian $ Br. Real Chinese Yuan Euro Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Baht South Afri. Rand Nota: Russian Rouble left the graph in Jun 2016 (index>) Currency US $ Australian $ Brazilian Real Chinese Yuan European Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Bhat South African Rand Sugar#11 Front term 512,66,66-11,99-2,3 672,42 657,14-15,27-2, , ,61-80,71-4, , ,38-28,25-0,8 457,64 458,86 1,21 0, , ,82-673,51-2, , ,33-535,75-5, , ,46-696,99-2, , ,78-275,04-1, , ,59-110,28-1,6 FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 3
4 Energy markets : ethanol, crude oil & gazoline Crude oil prices since January 2010 US$/barrel 120,00,00 80,00 60,00 40,00 20,00 WTI (New-York, US market) Brent (London, 2/3 of petrol exchanges) 2,2 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 0,8 Focus on BRAZIL : Ethanol in Sao Paulo since January 2010 Price Ex-distillery, Real/l Anhydrous Hydrous 1,00 Focus on USA : Ethanol & Gazoline prices since January 2010 Front term CBOT (Ethanol) & RBOB (Gazoline), US$/l 0,80 0,60 0,40 0,20 Gazoline Ethanol Oil 49,50 49,58 0,08 0,2 51,61 50,48-1,13-2,2 Gazoline RBOB, US$/l 0,39 0,39 0,00 0,0 Ethanol In Brazil (ex. dist.) In USA (CBOT) In Europe (T2 Rtdam) WTI, US$/barrel Brent, US$/barrel Real/l (Anh., S. Paulo) Real/l (Hydr., Sao Paulo) US$/gal US$/l /l US$/l value 1,97 2,09 0,12 6,3 1,76 1,90 0,14 8,0 1,52 1,62 0,10 0,40 0,43 0,03 0,46 0,47 0,01 1,5 0,52 0,51-0,01-1,0 FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 4 6,8
5 Grain markets : corn, soybeans, wheat, HFCS HFCS-55 in US Midwest market, Monthly from USDA, in US$/t dry weight Dry HFCS 55 monthly Price in USA September-15 September-16 US$/t 780,00 908,71 16,5 cts/lb 35,39 41, Grains and sugar#11 prices since January 2010 Front term, in US$/t Wheat (CBOT) Corn (CBOT) Soy (CBOT) Sugar#11 Corn Soy Wheat Front term (CBOT) US$/t 135,61 138,90 3,29 cts/bsl 344,45 352,80 8,35 US$/t 353,33 368,01 14,68 cts/bsl 961, ,65 39,95 US$/t 145,97 149,99 4,02 cts/bsl 397,30 408,25 10,95 2,4 4,2 2,8 FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 5
6 By-products : molasses and beet pulps 400 Cane molasses and beet pulp since January 2010 In France and Netherlands, ex-tank, in US$/t Pulp in NL (LIE) Pulp in France (ARTB) Molasses ex-tank Amsterdam (LEI) By-products prices August-16 September-16 Beet pulp pellets NL France Cane molasses (ex-tank Amsterdam) US$/t 219,74 210,49-9,26-4,2 /t 194,55 187,50-7,05-3,6 US$/t 189,19 187,14-2,05-1,1 /t 167,50 166,70-0,80-0,5 US$/t 185,80 182,42-3,38-1,8 /t 164,50 162,50-2,00-1,2 FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 6
7 Exchange rates Currency changes, compared to US$, since January 2013 Weekly based, basis on the first week of /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/ /01/ /07/2016 Australian Dollar Brazilian Real Chinese Yuan Euro Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Bhat South-African Rand Value, in US$, of the Currency Australian $ Brazilian Real Chinese Yuan European Indian Rupee Mexican Peso Russian Rouble Thai Bhat South African Rand 0,7624 0,7619-0,0005-0,1 0,3093 0,3176 0,0082 2,7 0,1499 0,1476-0,0023-1,5 1,1202 1,0911-0,0291-2,6 0,0150 0,0150-0,0001-0,4 0,0518 0,0535 0,0017 3,3 0,0160 0,0160 0,0000-0,2 0,0288 0,0286-0,0002-0,8 0,0727 0,0721-0,0006-0,8 FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 7
8 Freight : Baltic indexes 3 Freight indexes since January Baltic Dry Panamax Capesize Supramax (the most used in Sugar) Freight index (Baltic) Index Baltic Dry Baltic Supramax Baltic Panamax Baltic Capesize index ,0 Fertilizers prices since January 2010 World bank, in US$/t 600,0,0 400,0 300,0,0,0 0,0 DAP Phosphate Rock Potassium Chloride TSP Urea DAP (diammonium phosphate), standard size, bulk, spot, f.o.b. US Gulf Phosphate rock (Moroccan), 70 BPL, contract, f.a.s. Casablanca Potassium chloride (muriate of potash), standard grade, spot, f.o.b. Vancouver TSP (triple superphosphate), up to September 6 bulk, spot, f.o.b. US Gulf; from October 6 onwards Tunisian, granular, f.o.b. Urea (Black Sea), bulk, spot, for (June) f.o.b. Eastern Europe; 1991 (July) onwards f.o.b. Black Sea (primarily Yuzhnyy) FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 8
9 Market overview : the grower dashboard Sugar Sugar#11 Difference cts/lb 23,25 22,71-0,54 US$/t 512,66,66-11,99-2,3 Sugar#5 US$/t 595,50 596,78 1,28 0,2 Grains Ethanol cts/bsl 344,45 352,80 8,35 US$/t 135,61 138,90 3,29 cts/bsl 961, ,65 39,95 US$/t 353,33 368,01 14,68 cts/bsl 397,30 408,25 10,95 US$/t 145,97 149,99 4,02 /l 0,46 0,47 0,01 1,5 US$/l 0,52 0,51-0,01-1,0 US US$/l 0,40 0,43 0,03 6,8 Brazil Anydr. US$/l 1,97 2,09 0,12 6,3 Oil Brent US$/barrel 51,61 50,48-1,13-2,2 Freight Supramax Index ,1 Brazilian Currency Corn (CBOT) Soybeans (CBOT) Wheat (CBOT) EU spot 2,4 4,2 2,8 Value of 1 Real US$ 0,3093 0,3176 0,0082 2,7 Value of 1 US$ Real 3,233 3,149-0,084-2,7 FlashMarket from WABCG Contact : tmasson@cgb-france.fr page 9
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