Federal versus State Growth Prospects for US Renewable Fuel Consump;on

Transcription

1 Federal versus State Growth Prospects for US Renewable Fuel Consump;on Heather Zhang 1

2 PRIMA: Award Winning Biofuel Analy;cs Real 5me Daily Weekly Bespoke 2

3 Philosophy ques;ons or market ques;ons? Who am I? Where did I come from? Where am I going to? What are the demand for renewable fuels? Where did the fuels come from? Where the market/program may go? 3

4 Demand - GHG saving GHG saving effect 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Current GHG saving results: RFS: 2% lower than 2015 LCFS: 4% lower than % 0% 3% 1% 4% 2% 6% 24% % 27% 10% 31% 36% 39% RFS: Volume Standards as Set Forth in EISA year Renewable fuel (bn gal) LCFS RFS 4

5 Demand: Ethanol and other Cellulosic biofuels RFS: Cellulosic Biofuels and other renewable fuels LCFS: Ethanol bn gal 16 15, % YoY 0,034 +5% YoY 0,12 0,331 +???% YoY bn gal 1,6 1,6 1,5 1,5-2% - 3% YoY, following gasoline demand -9.5% of na^onal volume 14, ,5 0,09 14,05 0,123 0,230 14,5 15 1,4 1,4 1,3 1,3 1,33 1,38 1,43 1,47 1,51 1, Ethanol and others in D6 Cellulosic Biofuel Ethanol D5 1, Ethanol and others in D6 5

6 Demand: Bio-mass based diesel RFS: Bio-mass based diesel LCFS: Bio-mass based diesel bn gal 2,80 2,60 2,40 2,20 +26% YoY +15% YoY 0,51 +???% YoY ,00% 50,00% 40,00% 2,00 1,80 0,01 0,29 mn gal ,34% ,00% 1,60 1,40 1,20 1,73 1,9 2 2, ,00% 10,00% 1, ,00% Bio-Mass based diesel in D4 Bio-mass based diesel in D5 Ethanol and others in D6 YoY growth 6

7 LCFS Credit balances Breakeven case by 2020 mn MT credits LCFS Credit balances Breakeven *Ethanol: 2-3% annual increase, 70 CI average *Electricity: 50-70% annual increase *Other credits: 10% annual increase Gasoline deficits Diesel deficits other deficits Ethanol credits Electricity credits other credits Bio-mass credits Net banks BE 7

8 Supply: Ethanol and advanced fuels Domes5c Imports from other states Imports from Brazil RFS 99.9% NA 0.1% LCFS 84% 14% 2% Annual increase in Brazilian ethanol, from 34mn gal to 50mn gal at least Trigger: wide D5 and D6 prices and nego5able Brazilian ethanol price million gallon RINs RFS: D5 genera5on 2017 low case 2017 high case 2016 genera^on mn gal LCFS: Ethanol used to generate LCFS Cane Ethanol Corn Ethanol 0 Jan. 17 Feb. 17 März 17 Apr. 17 Mai 17 Juni 17 Juli 17 Aug. 17 Sep. 17 Okt. 17 Nov. 17 Dez Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 8

9 Supply: Ethanol and advanced fuels GHG saving Feedstocks RFS 20% Corns LCFS 30% average More diversified: corns, sorghum, molasses RFS: D6 supplied by fuel type LCFS: Credits By Fuel Type Fuel Millions Gallons Jan. 16 Ethanol Renewable Diesel Biodiesel Feb. 16 März 16 Apr. 16 Mai 16 Juni 16 Juli 16 Aug. 16 Sep. 16 Okt. 16 Nov Dez. 16 Jan Feb ETH <70 ETH ETH ETH ETH ETH >90 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 9

10 Supply: Bio-mass based diesel RFS: Fuel Change RFS: Fuel Change Domes^c biodiesel Weak Q1, pick up in Q2 onwards Biodiesel Weak Q1, POET case threaten Argen^na biodiesel mn poten^al shut Renewable diesel Strong Other biodiesel imports Ques^on mark Renewable diesel Strong -Total Q1 genera^on of D4s es^mated: 660mn 680mn RINs, up only 4.6% YoY -Genera^on pace is a 1% slower than same period last year balance: early to say but don t see shornall -Long term balance: See poten^al shornall in fuels and feedstocks in long term million RIN gal Jan. 16 Feb. 16 März 16 Apr. 16 RFS: D4 Genera^on by fuels D4 from domes^c biodiesel D4 from Argen^na biodiesel D4 from Canada Biodiesel D4 from other biodiesel Mai 16 Juni 16 Juli 16 Aug Sep. 16 Okt. 16 Nov. 16 Dez Jan. 17 Feb. 17 März 17 mn gal Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 LCFS: Bio-mass based diesel used to generate LCFS Renewable diesel Biodiesel 10

11 Supply: Bio-mass based diesel Program Major feedstocks Comments RFS Soybean oil 52%+, corn oil 15% Soybean oil: well above USDA expecta^on LCFS Corn oil 54%, UCO 31%, Canola oil 12% Q3 16 UCO: locally supplied. Seeking for more sources Corn oil: stronger in Q1 2017, both for BD and RD mn gal Biodiesel by feedstocks BD-Tallow BD-Soy BD-Canola BD-UCO BD-Corn Oil 5 12,73 22, Jan. 15 März 15 Mai 15 Juli 15 Sep. 15 Nov. 15 Jan. 16 März 16 Mai 16 Juli 16 Sep. 16 Nov. 16 Jan. 17 mn pounds Inputs as Biodiesel produc5on Poultry All Others Tallow Animal fats Canola oil Corn oil Recycled feeds Soybean oil 11

12 Demand: Bio-mass based diesel RFS: Bio-mass based diesel LCFS: Bio-mass based diesel bn gal 2,80 2,60 2,40 2,20 +26% YoY +15% YoY 0,51 +???% YoY ,00% 50,00% 40,00% 2,00 1,80 0,01 0,29 mn gal ,34% ,00% 1,60 1,40 1,20 1,73 1,9 2 2, ,00% 10,00% 1, ,00% Bio-Mass based diesel in D4 Bio-mass based diesel in D5 Ethanol and others in D6 YoY growth 12

13 Where the market/program may go? RFS Argen^na/Indonesia An^ Dumping case 2018 RVO BTC vs PTC LCFS Great amount of deficits POET case 13

14 Where the markets/program to go-rfs? An^ dumping case: Timeline: April 6: comments period closed Early May: first decision Impact: mn decrease in hardly to see imports in 2018 if ruled against -If addi^onal PTC, then completely lose benefits cents/lb 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00-0,50-1,00-1,50-2, month Argie SBO vs CBOT -1, The red dot shows we are in January 2016, and the Argen^na SBO for April transfer shows about 1.65 cents/lb discount under CBOT. Argen5na Biodiesel Exports to USA Declared (Millions gal) Jan. Feb. März Apr. Mai Juni Juli Aug. Sep. Okt. Nov. Dez

15 Where the markets/program to go-rfs? RVO: D4 intra day change vs annual mandates increase Timeline: Summer onwards ,000 Advanced renewable fuel Bio-mass based diesel same day change 7, Impact: Immediately surge RINs to add addi^onal incen^ves to supply chain, thus boos^ng produc^on poten^ally mn gal , Mai 15 Juni 15 Juli 15 Aug. 15 Sep. 15 Okt. 15 Nov. 15 Dez. 15 Jan. 16 Feb. 16 März 16 Apr. 16 Mai 16 Juni 16 Juli 16 Aug. 16 Sep. 16 Okt. 16 Nov. 16 Cents/RIN 15

16 Where the markets/program to go-rfs? PTC or BTC: 200 Biodiesel produc^on margin Midwest SME Timeline: Timeline doesn t help Impact: Scenario 1: PTC boost domes^c produc^on especially small producers, immediately bring margins to posi^ve. cents/gal Houston SME Jan. 04. Jan. 07. Jan. 10. Jan. 13. Jan. 16. Jan. 19. Jan. 22. Jan. 25. Jan. 28. Jan. 31. Jan. 03. Feb. 06. Feb. 09. Feb. 12. Feb. 15. Feb. 18. Feb. 21. Feb. 24. Feb. 27. Feb. März 04. März 07. März Scenario 2: No tax credits: If no Argen^na biodiesel, RINs become the only incen^ves to s^mulate more produc^ons as soybean oil may be strong. It is worth to watch switching feedstocks. If Argen^na biodiesel con^nues, then market operate as is. Cents/lb Feedstock prices South Cal dlvd Nor Cal Houston dlvd SBO CBOT 16

17 Where the markets/program to go-lcfs? *Volume of deficits is large: Supply in 2017: good increase in Brazilian ethanol and electricity credits Long term: increasing supply to be explored LCFS trades *POET: 120 Scenario 1: Suspend Biodiesel -posi^ve sign for LCFS price -good for Brazilian ethanol and RD Scenario 2: Suspend LCFS -long wait MT Credits $/ton 20 0 Jan. Feb. März Apr. Mai Juni Juli Aug. Sep. Okt. Nov. Dez. 0 17

18 Stay on top with EU Biodiesel US Biodiesel Argen5nian biodiesel Veg Oils Interna5onal Ethanol Asian Ethanol California LCFS Monthly RIN Count Contact: 18

19 Wall Street Naperville IL USA PRIMA makes no warran^es regarding the completeness, accuracy, or ^meliness of any informa^on or data in this communica^on ("Data"). PRIMA shall not be liable for any loss or damage stemming from any par^es' reliance on or use of Data. All Data is provided on an "as-is" basis. Nothing in this communica^on is intended as investment advice or a solicita^on of the purchase or sale of any financial or physical instrument. Copyright 2017 PRIMA. All rights reserved. No part of this publica^on may be copied, reproduced, distributed, or transmived in any form without the express wriven consent of PRIMA