Mee#ng India s current and future demand for palm oil the global and domes#c supply and demand scenario Sushil Goenka Director: 3F Industries Ltd,
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1 Mee#ng India s current and future demand for palm oil the global and domes#c supply and demand scenario Sushil Goenka Director: 3F Industries Ltd, India Past President: SEA, India
2 Vegetable Oil Consump#on: (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Total Vegetable Oil Consumed
3 Vegetable Oil Consump#on: (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Total Vegetable Oil Consumed Domes<c Oil Availability
4 Vegetable Oil Consump#on: (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Total Vegetable Oil Consumed Domes<c Oil Availability Imported Oil Consump<on
5 Category-wise Imported Oil Consump#on: (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Palm Oil Qty % Soybean Oil SoC Oils Sunflower Oil Rapeseed Oil % Total % % % % % % % % % % 14.61
6 Per Capita Consump#on: (in Million Tons)
7 Per Capita Consump#on: (in Million Tons) 4.32% 8.51% 5.02%
8 Es#mated Oil Consump#on: (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Per Capita (In Kg) 5% Growth MnT
9 Es#mated Domes#c Oil Supply (Other than CPO): (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Domes<c Oil Produc<on other than CPO
10 Es#mated Domes#c Oil Supply: (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Domes<c Oil Produc<on other than CPO Domes<c CPO Produc<on*
11 Oil Palm in India
12 Domes#c CPO Produc#on: Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Domes<c CPO Produc<on ,000 MT ,000 MT ,000 MT ,000 MT ,000 MT ,000 MT
13 Domes#c CPO Produc#on: Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Domes<c CPO Produc<on Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Domes<c CPO Produc<on ,000 MT ,000 MT ,000 MT ,000 MT ,000 MT ,000 MT ,000 MT ,000 MT ,000 MT ,000 MT ,000 MT
14 Indian Oil Palm Cul#va#on Map
15 State-wise Produc#on: Total PotenLal Area idenlfied } = for Oil Palm cullvalon Area planted FFB produced during million hectares = 0.2 million hectares = 1.18 million tons CPO produced during = 0.18 million tons Oil ExtracLon Rate (OER) = 17 %
16 Government Incen#ves Subsidy on seedling = 91 / Seedling to farmer = 35 to industry = 56 CulLvaLon subsidy to farmer: 1 st Year = 4,000 / Hectare 2 nd Year = 4,000 / Hectare 3 rd Year = 4,000 / Hectare 4 th Year = 4,000 / Hectare Subsidy for intercropping = 3,000 / Hectare
17 Nursery
18 Planta#on
19 Es#mated Domes#c Oil Supply: (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Domes<c Oil Produc<on other than CPO CPO Produc<on Total
20 Es#mated Oil Imports Needed: (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Oil Consump<on Total Domes<c Oil Produc<on Import Requirement MnT % % % % % %
21 Es#mated Oil Imports Needed: (in Million Tons) Oil Year (Nov - Oct) Import Requirement SoC Oil likely to be 30% Palm Oil 70%
22 Global Supply & Demand Scenario Data reproduced with assistance from Oil World
23 World Production of 17 Oils & Fats 2015/16F Mn T 1991/ Mn T Palm Oil 29,8% Rape Oil 12,3% Soya Oil 24,7% Palm Oil 14,2% Rape Oil 11,4% Soya Oil 20,1% Sun Oil 9,9% PKO&CNO 5,2% Sun Oil 7,5% Others/An.Fats 21,2% Others/An.Fats 39,3% PKO&CNO 4,7%
24 17 OILS & FATS: Exports of Major Countries (Mn T) Indonesia 15 Malaysia 10 5 Canada Argentina U.S.A. Ukraine 0 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13 15/16F
25 Major Importers of Palm Oil (2015) (in Million Tons) Source: hap://
26 PALM OIL : Production in Key Countries (Mn T) Malaysia Indonesia F J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r Palm Oil Outlook in 2016 (in Mn T): Indonesia 33.0 vs in 2015 and 31.4 Mn in 2014 Malaysia 19.4 vs 20.0 in 2015 and 19.7 in 2014
27 Major Importers of Palm Oil (2015) (in Million Tons) Philippines Vietnam Russia U.S.A Bangladesh Egypt Pakistan China EU India Source: hap://
28 17 Oils & Fats: World Output & Consumption (Mn T) 15/16F 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 Production Consumption for energy other uses Stock change oils & fats in Oct/Sept 15/16: ProducLon only +2.1 Mn Total consumplon growth to accelerate to 5.2 Mn T Recovery in biodiesel, driven by Indonesia Strong food demand
29 17 Oils & Fats: World Output & Consumption (Mn T) 15/16F 14/15 13/14 12/13 11/12 Production Consumption for energy other uses Stock change Demand drivers in Oct/Sept 15/16 are India and Indonesia with growth in Mn T: India +1.3 Indonesia +1.2 China +0.4 Other Asia +0.8 America +1.0 European Union -0.2 C.I.S Africa +0.5
30 17 OILS & FATS: Surplus/Deficit of Output vs. Usage 4 Mn T Surplus oils & fats in Oct/Sept 15/16: ProducLon deficit Declining stocks AppreciaLng prices -1 Deficit -2 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 12/11 13/14 15/16F
31 Daily Prices of Palm oil & Gas Oil (US-$/T) ICE Gas Oil (Spot) Crude palm oil, cif Rott. 200 Ja15Feb Mar AprMayJun Jly AugSep Oct Nov Dec Ja16 Feb Mar Daily prices from January 2015 until 31 March 2016
32 Live daringly, boldly, fearlessly. Taste the relish to be found in challenges -- in having to put forth the best within you. -- Henry Kaiser, Industrialist
33 It was a Pleasure making this Presenta#on Thank You!
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