Global Supply, Demand and Price Outlook for Oilseeds, Oils and Meals

Transcription

1 Global Supply, Demand and Price Outlook for Oilseeds, Oils and Meals Presentation at the Australian Grains Industry Conference on 2 Aug 2017 in Melbourne there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at the airport Thomas Mielke, ISTA Mielke, Oil World, Global Market Research on Oilseeds, Oils and Meals Please feel free to contact me for assistance at <thomas.mielke@oilworld.de>

2 Company Profil and Services ISTA Mielke GmbH publisher of OIL WORLD - was founded in 1958 ISTA = International STatistical Agricultural Information Leading private authority for global research and market analyses for oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals Independent, not involved in trading, unbiased information there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at Providing monthly the airport and quarterly world supply and demand balances Daily, weekly and monthly publications. Now also a Chinese Report! We would be grateful to have you as our customer. Do not rely on secondary sources. Invitation to <Thomas.Mielke@oilworld.de>

3 Palm oil is theprice Leader for Oils and Fats Worldwide 1600 Monthly Prices of 2 Oils cif Rotterdam in US-$ / MT Palm oil crude Rape oil '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 Monthly Prices from Jan 1973 until 20 July 2017

4 The Global Market The Overall Target is the Satisfaction of Demand (mainly for food; biodiesel may have to be curbed) The major drivers for production are to be seen in the demand and in prices. Prices have to be sufficiently attractive for producers to invest and expand.

5 Governments Demand Supply Price there somebody to pick me up tomorrow at the airport Financial Markets & Funds Media Weather

6 Many Uncertainties and Swing Factors will determine Prices Global Impacts from Oilseeds Ample supplies currently primarily of soybeans, and also in 2017/18, Global Production of 10 Oilseeds 2017/ Mn T 10 Oilseeds Mn T India 6% China 8% Soybeans 62% Argentina 11% Unless US drought damage aggravates Other 3 Oilseeds 2% Brazil 20% Copra & Palmkernels 4% Canada & U.S.A. 27% Groundnuts 5% C.I.S. 8% EU-28 6% Rapeseed 11% Sunseed 9% Cottonseed 7% Other ctries 14%

7 Most of the growth in soybeans In 20 years world soybean output more than doubled from 158 Mn T in 1996/97 to an estimated 349 Mn T in 2016/ Oilseeds: World Area and Production Production (Mn T) Area (Mn ha) 91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 09/10 13/14 17/18F

8 10 Oilseeds: World Production (Mn T) In 2016/17 boost in Soybean production: World 349 Mn T (+38) USA 117 Mn T (+10) S. America 186 Mn (+21) Decline aniticipated for 2017/18. But it is, of course, still uncertain by how much? Soybeans Other 9 oilseeds /00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18F

9 High likelihood that world production of soybeans will decline in 2017/18. But even if world output declines by about 5 Mn T to around 343 Mn T next season, it would still be enough to cover prospective consumption SOYBEANS World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha) there somebody 200 to pick me up tomorrow at the airport /98 01/02 05/06 95/96 99/00 03/04 07/08 Production Harvested Area 09/10 11/12 13/14 17/18F 15/16

10 Soybeans have lost attractiveness in South America. In Argentina planted area may decline to a 6-year low of 18.9 Mn ha in 2017/18. Reduced production anticipated in the USA and S.America in 2017/ Mn T U.S.A. 60 Soybean Crop Trend Argentina, Brazil & Paraguay /84 89/90 95/96 01/02 07/08 13/14 80/81 86/87 92/93 98/99 04/05 10/11 16/17

11 US soybean production is forecast to decline to around 113 Mn T (down 4.2 Mn T). We expect an average yield of 3.15 T/ha in 2017 (or 46.8 bu/acre), off 10%. On Jly 30 about 59% G/E versus 72% last year. USDA release on Aug 10. US exports to decline in Sept/Febr 2017/18, due to record S. Amer. supplies U.S.A. : Soybean Supply & Demand ( Mn T ) S e p t e m b e r / A u g u s t 17/18F 16/17 15/16 14/15 13/14 Op. stocks * Crop * Imports *.67* Exports * 56.90* Crushings * 51.30* * 47.38* Other use 3.40* 3.53* * 2.77* End. stocks * 11.50* Stocks/usage 11.6% 10.3% 5.0% 4.9% 2.6%

12 1060 CBOT: Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu) Nov day moving average Ja17 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Daily futures from 2 Jan 2017 until 25 July 2017

13 USA (43%) Soybean Trade Flows in 2016 China (62%) EU-28 (11%) Ukraine (2%) Brazil (38%) Mexico (3%) Other Asia (17%) Paraguay & Uruguay (6%) Argentina (7%) Exports Imports

14 Chinese soybean imports will probably not increase in 2017/18, because 1) Current stocks are record large and 2-3 Mn T above a year ago, and 2) this year s domestic output is seen at 15.0 Mn T, up 3.2 Mn T CHINA: Soybean Demand and Share of Imports 100 Mn T 90 Total Use (a) there 50somebody to pick me up tomorrow at the airport 40 Imports /02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17 (a) Crushings, food and other use in Aug/July.

15 Ample world soybean supplies, if our current crop estimates materialize. Record stocks. But weather uncertainties One additional swing factor to watch: Farmer selling Farmers have built larger storage. New market factor Soybeans: World Stocks as of end-august (Mn T) F

16 Further boost in world soybean crushings required in 2016/17 and in 2017/18 (up Mn T in each year), mainly because of 1) rising demand 2) insufficient supplies of other seeds, and 3) low stocks of veg oils This is creating a surplus in oilmeals Argentine and Indian crushings curbed by lack of meal demand 10 Oilseeds : World Crushings (Mn T) Soybeans 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18F 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 9 other seeds

17 60 7 Oilseeds: World Production Change from a Year Ago (Mn T) /09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

18 7 OILSEEDS: World Supply and Demand ( Mn T ) Forecast Change 2017/18F to 16/17 16/17 15/16 14/15 Opening stocks Production thereof soybeans 548.2* 343.1* Sunseed * Rapeseed * Cottonseed * Groundnuts (b) * Palmkern & Copra 21.7* Total supplies * Disappearance * * thereof soybeans 343.1* * Sunseed * * Rapeseed * * Ending stocks * +/ * thereof soybeans 100.4* +/ *

19 World supplies of rapeseed & canola will remain tight in 2017/18, contrary to earlier expectations of a recovery Rapeseed production only at Mn T in 2017/18 In Europe farmers losing interest in rapeseed. Biggest losses in -Canada 18.6 Mn (vs 19.25) -Australia at best 3.9 (4.4) -China less than 6.0 Mn T /96 97/98 99/00 RAPESEED & CANOLA World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha) 01/02 Production 03/04 Harvested Area 05/06 09/10 13/14 07/08 11/12 17/18F 15/16

20 Canada: Canola Disposals (Mn T) 24 Exports Crush /02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17 A u g u s t / J u l y CANADA : Supply & Demand of Canola ( Mn T ) A u g u s t / J u l y 17/18F 16/17 15/16 14/15 13/14 Op. stocks.95* *.59 Output * 19.25* Imports *.09* Exports * 10.90* 10.30* Crushings * 9.11* Other use....34*.39*.38*.26*.23* End.stocks *.95* *

21 All-time records in world supplies of sunflowerseed and oil helped to moderate the impact of insufficient supplies of palm oil in Oct/June 2016/17, In Oct/Sept 2016/17 world exports of sun oil set to be boosted by 1.8 Mn T to a record 10.2 Mn T Sun oil prices below those of soy oil in past 10 months. This is likely to change in 2017/ SUNFLOWERSEED World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha) Production Harvested Area 97/98 01/02 05/06 09/10 13/14 17/18F 95/96 99/00 03/04 07/08 11/12 15/16

22 Substantial Growth in World Demand of Oils/Fats!! Average demand growth in past 5 seasons: Total per year Biofuel Food/other +6.5 Mn T +1.7 Mn T +4.8 Mn T /90 17 Oils & Fats : World Consumption 92/93 biofuel 95/96 Total Usage in Mn T 98/99 01/02 food and other 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17F

23 (Kg) 80 Per capita consumption of Oils & Fats Inflated by biofuel usage kg

24 Outlook Biodiesel and HVO World Production of Biodiesel (Mn T) Biodiesel Use of Major Feedstock (Mn T) Palm oil Soya oil Rape oil Used oil Tallow Others

25 Monthly Prices (US-$/T) RBD palm olein, fob Malaysia Soya oil, Arg., fob Crude mineral oil Ja03 Ja04Ja05 Ja06 Ja07Ja08 Ja09 Ja10Ja11 Ja12Ja13 Ja14 Ja15Ja16 Ja17 Monthly prices from Jan 2003 until 20 July 2017

26 World Production of 17 Oils & Fats 2016/ Mn T 1996/ Mn T Palm Oil 30,3% Rape Oil 11,6% Soya Oil 24,6% Palm Oil 17,5% Rape Oil 11,5% Soya Oil 20,9% Sun Oil 9,1% PKO&CNO 5,3% Sun Oil 8,5% Others/An.Fats 20,6% Others/An.Fats 35,7% PKO&CNO 4,4%

27 Palm oil Importance of palm oil in global oils & fats market

28 Current labour shortage is likely to reduce palm oil yields and OER s (oil extraction rates) below potential: Longer harvest intervals, less loose-fruit collection and delayed replanting In the 10 years to 2016 wages for Malaysian plantation employees have increased by about %, significantly raising production costs!

29 2016: -6% = -3.9 Mn T 1998: -5% = -0.8 Mn T Palm Oil Production in Major Countries (Mn T) Malaysia Indonesia Effects of El Nino Rest of World

30 OILS & FATS: Output, Supplies & Use Change From Year Ago in Mn T 09/10 Production Consumption 10/11 12/13 14/15 11/12 13/14 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r Supplies (op. stocks+prod.) 15/16 16/17

31 17 Oils & Fats: Stocks & Stocks/Usage Stocks/Usage (%) Replenishment of veg oil stocks will take time Stocks Mn T 10 8 and will not be possible in 2016/ F E n d - S e p t e m b e r

32 The Dominance of Palm Oil - - grown on only 5% of Global Veg Oil Area 17 OILS & FATS : World Production (Mn T) 70 Palm oil Soya oil 30 4 Animal Fats 20 9 Other oils Rape oil 10 Sun oil 0 95/96 98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17F OILS & FATS : World Exports (Mn T) Soy, Rape, Sun Oils 4 Animal Fats Palm Oil 9 Other 0 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14 16/17F

33 The Success Story of the past 30 Years Substantial growth in world production of palm oil In 1980: 4.6 Mn T or 8% of 17 oils & fats In 1990: 11.0 Mn T or 14% In 2000: 21.9 Mn T or 19% In 2010: 46.2 Mn T or 27% In 2015: 62.8 Mn T or 30% (only 5% of area) In 2016: 58.9 Mn T (plus 6.4 Mn T of Palmkern oil) In 2025 about 85 Mn T of palm oil required globally (of which Malaysia 24.0 and Indonesia 47.0 Mn T)

34 Trade of 17 Oils & Fats in 2016 EU-28 (14%) USA (6%) North Africa (5%) Russia & Ukraine (8%) China (10%) India (18%) Malaysia (22%) Indonesia (32%) Argentina (8%) Exports Imports

35 PALM OIL: Quarterly World Production & Us 18 Mn T Production Consumption J/M A/J J/SO/DJ/M A/J J/SO/DJ/M A/J J/SO/DJ/M A/J J/SO/DJ/M A/J J/SO/D In 2016: Severe production deficit Big reduction of stocks

36 In 2017 already 70% of the global production growth occurred in Jan/June, with Indonesia up 3.2 Mn T and Malaysia up 1.1 Mn T from year ago INDONESIA : Palm Oil Output (Mn T) MALAYSIA : Palm Oil Output (Mn T) Jan/June July/Dec 6 Jan/June July/Dec

37 World production seen up by 7.1 Mn T in 2017 and by 3.9 in Stocks of palm oil still down by 3.6 Mn T from year ago as of 1 Jan PALM OIL : World Production ( Mn T ) and Yields ( T/ha ) P r o d u c t i o n Y i e l d s 2018F 2017F F 2017F Indonesia 38.00* 35.60* 32.10* 33.40* 3.79* 3.70* 3.51* 3.87* Malaysia 21.00* 19.86* * 3.92* 3.51* 4.18* C&S America 4.75* 4.57* 4.04* 3.82* 3.19* 3.19* 2.99* 3.04* Africa 2.65* 2.55* 2.44* 2.38* 1.70* 1.68* 1.65* 1.66* Oth ctrs. 3.54* 3.47* 3.00* 3.24* 2.58* 2.61* 2.29* 2.57* WORLD 69.94* 66.05* * 3.48* Mn +7.1 Mn -3.9 Mn T Yields still relatively low

38 Oilseeds: sideways or bearish, unless more weather problems occur Oils & fats: At the end of the 2016/17 season, stocks still be low relative to annual consumption. A second year (2017/18) without severe weather problems is required to bring oils & fats stocks to more comfortable levels. But this is a slow process. Concluding Statements World Stocks in Percent of Annual Usage (%) 17 oils & fats 10 oilseeds F At the end of the season

39 17 Oils & Fats: Stocks & Stocks/Usage Stocks/Usage (%) Replenishment of veg oil stocks will take time Stocks Mn T 10 and will not be possible in 2016/ F E n d - S e p t e m b e r

40 Have we already seen the lows for the calendar year? At prices below or around US-$ 600 price-sensitive buyers already covered at least part of their requirements RBD Palm Olein, fob Malaysia, June 2 nearby and deferred in US-$/T 108 $ inverse June July JAS OND JFM AMJ

41 The deferred positions strengthened, due to - a slowing down of the production growth, - still low stocks in many ctries, - strong palm oil demand RBD Palm Olein, fob Malaysia, July 24 nearby and deferred in US-$/T Aug Sept OND JFM AMJ

42 Palm olein currently about US $ 100 below soya oil Additional downward momentum is limited. But it cannot be excluded that palm olein temporarily falls to or slightly below US $ 600 within the next 3-5 months Daily Prices of 2 Oils (in US-$/T) Soya oil, fob Arg. RBD palm olein, fob Malaysia 500 Ja16 Feb Apr Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Ja17 Mar Apr May Jun Daily prices from 1 Jan 2016 until 24 July 2017

43 Most of the bearishness in the palm oil outlook is already discounted. There is still some downward potential if production in Jul/Oct 2017 comes up to expectations. But additional price reductions should be limited. I currently don t expect the first position to fall below 2300 Ringgit in Oct/Dec MALAYSIA: Crude Palm Oil Futures Close First position in Malaysian Ringgit/T 2200 May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Prices from 3 Mayl 2016 until 25 July 2017

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