Presentation at 50 th Anniversary of Aniame in Mexico City on 23 Oct 2008

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Oswald Copeland
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1 Global Supply, Demand and Price Outlook for Oilseeds, Veg. Oils and Oilmeals Reation of the Global Oilseed Sector to the New Price Price Determining Factors Thomas Mielke Presentation at 5 th Anniversary of Aniame in Mexico City on 23 Oct 28 <Thomas.Mielke@oilworld.de> Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative Serving the Oilseed, Oil & Meal Industries, Trade, Organizations & Associations Very High Price Volatility Soybeans, meal & oil, palm oil: monthly prices (US-$/MT) Palm oil, crude cif Rott. Soya oil, Dutch fob ex-mill Soybeans, US, cif Rott. Soya meal, Arg., cif Rott ' '2 '4 '6 '8 Monthly prices from Jan 1972 until 2 Oct 28

2 Global Financial Crisis.. Aggravating in Sept and early Oct 28 Turmoil, Panic Selling Collapse of major US investment banks Liquidity Squeeze Global Financial Crisis.. Aggravating in Sept and early Oct 28 Turmoil, Panic Selling Collapse of major US investment banks Liquidity Squeeze Plummeting Stock Markets... Spilling over to Commodity Markets, Including Oilseeds and Products

3 Global Financial Crisis.. Aggravating in Sept and early Oct 28 Turmoil, Panic Selling Collapse of major US investment banks Liquidity Squeeze Plummeting Stock Markets... Spilling over to Commodity Markets, Including Oilseeds and Products Bail-Out Packages of Governments in the US and Europe to stabilize the banking system Fear of Economic Recession Steep Price Decline in July/Oct 28 Weekly Oil Prices in Rotterdam (US-$/T) Sun oil, EU Soya oil 11 9 Rape oil, EU 7 5 Crude palm oil, EU 3 Jan6 Jun Oct6Jan7 Jun Oct7 Jan8 Jun Oct8 From 1 Jan 26 until 2 Oct 28

4 Weekly Prices of 2 Oils (FOB) Soya Oil, Arg. & RBD Palm Olein, Malaysia in US-$/T Soya Oil 12-51% RBD Palm Olein -6% 4 Jan7 Jun Sep Jan8 Jun Sep Prices from 1 Jan 27 until 2 Oct 28 Steep Price Decline in July/Oct 28 Current prices of palm oil down 48% from the 27/8 average Soya oil down 37% (in Argentina) and rape oil -3% and soya meal 28% in Rott MAJOR REASONS: Very good weather and better than expected oilseed & grain crops in the North.Hemisphere Noticeable Slowing of Demand Stronger US Dollar Heavy selling from funds and speculators

5 CBOT: Soybean Futures (in cents/bushel) November 28 position Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Daily futures prices from 1 Jan 28 until 2 Oct 28 What is the likely Price Trend from here? Discuss the major price determining factors for oilseeds, oilmeals and veg. Oils But influences from the outside markets will be very important How severe will the economic slow down be in 29? Recession in the USA and EU?

6 OILSEEDS - - Outlook 28/9 US soybean supplies larger than expected South America: Dryness + less fertilizer = lower yields? Boost in World Sunseed + Rapeseed Output Annual Growth of Global Usage accelerated in past 5 Seasons Consumption in Mn T 1 seeds: World Output & Consumption of 1 Oilseeds (Mn T) 43 Production 252 in 94/95 42 in 7/8 = = = = average growth per annum: +12 Mn T (+15 in the latest 5 seasons) Soybeans usage: Disappearance 13 Mn in 94/95 23 to 231 Mn (58%) 94/95 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1 Oct 28

7 World Supply & Demand of Oilseeds Oil World Forecast for 28/9: Area +11 Mn ha Output +26 Mn T 1 Oilseeds 418 Mn T (up 26) Soya 238 Mn (up 16) Rape 56 Mn T (up 7) Sunseed 32 (up 3.5) Cottonseed 42 (- 2) Groundnuts shelled 25 Mn (unchanged) Palmkernels 12 Mn T (up 1) OILSEEDS: Annual Change in World Area and Production Area (Mn ha) Production (Mn T) -2 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1 Oct 28 Yields of Soybeans, Rape & Sunseed worldwide in Tonnes per Hectare 2,5 2 Rapeseed Sunseed Soybeans 1,5 1 9/91 93/94 96/97 99/ 2/3 5/6 8/9 1 Oct 28

8 But even with 26 Mn T higher Output, World Supplies to rise only 16 Mn T in 28/9 due to low opening stocks Global Oilseed Stocks set to recover by 5 Mn T in 28/9, After plunge of 11 Mn T in 27/ Oilseeds: World Production & Consumption (Mn T) Production Consumption /6 6/7 7/8 8/9 Boost in Area Higher Inputs Very good weather Record Crops But drought & production risk in S. America Bearishness in Sunflowerseed and Rapeseed & Canola in 28/9 Weekly Oilseed Prices in the EU (US-$/T) Soybeans, US, cif Rott. Sunseed, EU Rapeseed, EU Jan Apr Jly Oct From 1 Jan 24 to 2 Oct 28 Jan Apr Jly Oct JanApr Jly OctJanApr Jly OctJan AprJly Oct

9 28/9 Production Change, Mn T: Russia Canada Ukraine +.7 Ukraine EU EU +.7 Argentina.5 Australia SUNFLOWERSEED World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha) Production Area 16 91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/ 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 9/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 RAPESEED World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha) Production Area /93 94/95 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/ 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 Sun oil exports up by 1.1 Mn T in 28/9 4 3,5 3 2,5 SUN OIL: Exports of Key Countries(Mn T) U.S.A. Argentina Ukraine Russia 2 1,5 1,5 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 24 Sept 28

10 Sun Oil Prices relatively weaker than Soya Oil Weekly Prices of Soya Oil & Sun Oil, fob Argentina 2 in US-$/T 18 Sun Oil % 12 1 Soya Oil Jan7 Jun Sep Jan8 Jun Sep Prices from 1 Jan 27 until 2 Oct Daily Prices of Sun Oil, EU, fob N.W. Eur. Ports (US-$/T) 25 Sun Oil, EU, fob 45 Oct 6 Jan7 Oct7 Jan8 Oct8 Average Oct/Sept 7/8 Average Oct/Sept 6/7 Daily prices from 1 Oct 26 until 16 Oct Oct 28

11 Production of Rapeseed & Canola more than doubled since 1992/93 RAPESEED World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha) Production Area /93 94/95 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/ 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 1 Oct 28 Production of Rapeseed & Canola up steeply by at least 7.2 Mn T in 28/9 RAPESEED : World Supply & Demand ( Mn T ) 8/9F 7/8 6/7 5/6 Open g stocks Production * EU Russia * Ukraine Canada * 9.61* China * 1.4* India * 5.3* Australia * * 1.44 Total supplies 6.76* Disappearance 53.98* End g stocks * EU-27 (Jun 3) 1.1* Canada (July31) 2.9* Stocks/usage 12.6% 9.1% 13.1% 15.1% 1 Oct 28

12 Daily Rapeseed (Euronext) Futures in Paris First position (in EUR/T) Nov Dec Jan8 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Prices from 1 Nov 27 until 2 Oct ,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1,5 Mn T Rapeseed & Canola End-Season Stocks in EU-27 & Canada (Mn T) EU-27 (end June) Canada (end July) Rapeseed & Canola : World Trade (1 T ) July / June 8/9F 7/8 6/7 5/6 4/5 Exports 953* EU-27(a) * Ukraine * Other C.I.S * 177* Canada * U.S.A * Australia * EU-27 : Imports of Rapeseed by Country of Origin (1 T) July / June from: 8/9F 7/8 6/7 5/6 4/5 Ukraine * Oth. CIS * Canada.... 4* Argentina... 2* Australia... - * Oth. ctrs. 9* Total (a) * (a) Intra EU trade is excluded. Imports 9373* EU-27(a) * Canada * U.S.A * Mexico * China,PR * India * 13* Japan * Pakistan * 761* U.A.E * 527* (a) Intra-EU trade is excluded. 1 Oct 28

13 Rape & Canola Oil: World Consumption and Rising EU-27 Share (in Mn T) EU-27 World 94/95 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 1 Oct 28 World Output in 28/9 only back to 6/7 Level SOYBEANS World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha) Production Area /93 94/95 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/ 1/2 3/4 5/6 7/8 1 Oct 28

14 Crop Uncertainty in South America Soybean Crop Trend Since 7/71 Mn T U.S.A. Argentina, Brazil & Paraguay 7/71 75/76 8/81 85/86 9/91 95/96 2/3 8/9 1 Oct 28 US Soybean Supply Revised upward for 28/9: 1) Open Stocks +1.8 Mn and 2) Crop +1.3 Mn T U.S.A. : Soybean Supply & Demand ( Mn T ) S e p t e m b e r / A u g u s t 8/9F 7/8 6/7 5/6 4/5 H.area, Mn ha Yield (T/ha) Op. stocks Crop Imports *.3* Total supplies 87.* Exports * 31.5* Crushings * Other use * End. stocks * Oct 28

15 World Supply and Demand Outlook for Soybeans in 28/9 World production 238. Mn T (up 15.5 Mn) of which: North. Hemisphere (up 13.4 Mn T) USA (up 8.4) China (up 3.3) India (up.9) South. Hemisphere (up 2.1 Mn T) Argentina (up 2.5) Brazil (down.3) World Supply and Demand Outlook for Soybeans in 28/9 World soybean crop 238. Mn T (up15.5mnt) of which: Northern Hemisphere (up 13.4) Southern Hemisphere (up 2.1) World consumption 236. Mn T (up 4.9 Mn T) But still ending stocks to recover by only 2 Mn T to 65 Mn T against 63 Mn T in 27/8

16 8 G - 3 : Exports of Soybeans ( Mn T ) Average '27 '28 2 Jan Apr July Sept Dec 1 Oct 28 5 Soybeans : Crushings in Key Countries (Mn T) U.S.A. China EU-27 Brazil Argentina 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9

The Argentine Farm Crisis Political uncertainty. Strikes over Export Taxes. Soya Crushings and Meal Exports Declined in March/July 28. Drought. Crop prospects deteriorated, particularly of wheat.

17 The Argentine Farm Crisis Political uncertainty. Strikes over Export Taxes. Soya Crushings and Meal Exports Declined in March/July 28. Drought. Crop prospects deteriorated, particularly of wheat. Larger soya plantings (+1. Mn ha), if rains arrive in time. Fertilizer reductions by 15-3%. Yields lower. Improved rainfall in October. ARGENTINA : Rainfall in % of normal Sept Aug July June May Buenos Aires (12 stations) 36% 28% 72% 156% 41% Santa Fé (5 stations) 32% 38% 34% 17% 22% Córdoba (5 stations) 14% 1% 16% 129% 12% Entre Ríos (2 stations) 55% 12% 17% 19% 39% La Pampa (2 stations) 22% 53% 54% 562% 56% Chaco (1 station) 43% 92% 5% 49% 28% 1 Oct 28 Drought in South America

19 Current Oilseed Crop Estimates for 29 may be optimistic SOYBEANS : Output in South America ( Mn Tonnes ) 29F Brazil * Argentina 49.5* 47.* 48.3* 4.8* 39.7* 32.3* Paraguay * Bolivia * Uruguay * Total * Mn T +27 Mn T 1 Oct 28 Increasing Fight for Acreage in 29 Corn prices are undervalued at the moment Below $ 4. Acreage Fight with Soya to pull up prices in 29 and Dec 28 position 5 CBOT Corn Futures (cents/bushel) 5-day moving average 4 3 Sep7 Nov Jan8 Mar May Jly Sep8 Daily futures prices from 1 Aug 27 until 2 Oct 28

20 36 34 U.S.A.: Soybean & Corn Harv. Area ( Mn ha ) Corn Soybeans /97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1 Oct 28 Implications from Corn and Ethanol 4. billion bushel or 34% of the US corn crop likely to be used for ethanol production in 28/9, requiring 27 Mn acres (11 Mn ha) USA: Corn Usage for Ethanol (Mn T) /3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 24 Sept 28

21 OILMEALS - - Outlook 28/9 Feeding profits have suffered Strong competition from feedgrains Soyameal loses market share to other meals Declining soyameal use in EU-27 For the first time in many years, soya meal consumption did not increase in Apr/Sep 8 (up 4.8 Mn T in Oct/March 27/8) World Production of 12 Oilmeals 28/ Mn T 199/ Mn T Soya meal 6,4% Soya meal 5,7% Rape meal 11,1% Sun meal 4,9% Others 21,6% Fish meal 2,1% Rape meal 1,3% Sun meal 7,1% Fish meal 4,6% Others 27,3%

22 Soya meal pulled up by the rallying soybean prices in July/June 28/9 Monthly Prices of 3 Oilmeals (in US-$/T) 53 5 Soy.pell, Arg., cif Rot. 47 Sun pell., Arg, cif Rot. 44 Rape meal, EU, fob HH January 2 until 2 October OILMEALS : World Disappearance Change from Previous Season (in Mn T) 12 Meals 1-year Average to 23/4 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9

23 Soya Meal: Global Consumption Growth is less than half the Average in 28/ OILMEALS : World Disappearance Change from Previous Season (in Mn T) Soyameal 12 Meals /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 12 OILMEALS: Usage in Key Countries (Mn T) EU-27 China USA 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r

24 Soya Meal Demand in EU Declines due to Feed Grains and Other Meals... EU-27 : Domestic Usage of 12 Oilmeals ( Mn T ) O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 8/9F 7/8 6/7 5/6 4/5 Soybean meal 34.3* Change other meals Rape meal * Sun meal * Cornglutenfeed 2.76* Palmkern meal 2.92* Fish meal * Other meals....98* Total 11 meals 23.12* Change oilmeals 57.42* Oct SOYA MEAL : World Exports & Dominance of Argentina (Mn T) World Argentina /95 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r

25 5 Soya Meal Exports World soya meal exports set to stagnate in 28/ Argentina U.S.A. Brazil 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/ 1/2 3/4 6/7 8/9 SOYA MEAL: World Exports ( Mn T ) October / September 8/9F 7/8 6/7 5/6 4/5 U.S.A * 8.35* Argentina * 26.6* Brazil * 12.4* India * 5.24* Oth.countries 3.4* 3.47* Total * 55.7* The Outlook for Oils & Fats and Impacts from Biofuels

26 OILS & FATS - - Outlook 28/9 Demand has suffered Current large stocks ( - - > Palm Oil! ) 8/9 : lower production growth in soya oil and palm oil 8/9 : Huge production of sun oil and rape oil Boost by 84 Mn T in 18 years or 4.7 Mn T per annum on average. But accelerated growth since 24/5 due to biofuels. World Consumption of 17 Oils & Fats 28/ Mn T 199/ Mn T Palm Oil 26,9% Soya Oil 23,3% Palm Oil 13,9% Rape Oil 1,7% Sun Oil 1,3% Soya Oil 19,6% Rape Oil 12,3% Sun Oil 7,% Others/An.Fats 25,4% PKO&CNO 5,8% Others/An.Fats 39,7% PKO&CNO 5,1%

27 Conflict: Food versus Fuel for Biofuels 17 Oils & Fats Growth of World Consumption (Mn T) to cover Population Growth additional per caput food use 96/97 1/2 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 In these 4 countries very strong demand growth, but slowing in 27/8 (price rationing) Oils & Fats Demand Growth in Key Countries (Mn T) 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1,5 -,5 Argentina U.S.A. Brazil EU-27 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1 Oct 28

28 Oils & Fats Demand Growth in Key Countries (Mn T) 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1,5 -,5 94/95 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/78/9 Malaysia Indonesia Russia Pakistan India China - Huge Global Demand Growth since 24-5, due to biofuels - High prices and demand rationing 27/8 17 Oils & Fats : World Disappearance Total Usage and Annual Change (Mn T) 84/85 87/88 9/91 93/94 96/97 99/ 2/3 5/6 8/

29 How will the increasing global import demand be satisfied? Palm oil export booming from 12 Mn T in 97/98 to 35 Mn in 8/9. Palm oil: 55% of world export Soya, sun & rape oil exports no longer dynamic, due to higher demand in producing countries Oils & Fats World Exports until 28/9 Soy, Rape, Sun Oils 4 Animal Fats Palm Oil 9 Other 9/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 24 Sept 28

30 Mn T Soya Oil Exports Argentina U.S.A. Brazil 93/94 96/97 99/ 2/3 5/6 8/ Palm Oil Exports (in Mn T) Malaysia Indonesia Rest of world 93/94 96/97 99/ 2/3 5/6 8/9 1 Oct 28 The Outlook for Soya Oil SOYA OIL World Production vs. Demand Growth Rates in % Production Consumption -2 /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9

31 SOYA OIL : World Exports ( Mn T ) October / September 8/9F 7/8 6/7 5/6 4/5 U.S.A * 1.33* Argentina * 6.* Brazil * 2.39* Other countries.. 1.5* 1.51* Total * 11.23* Change (in Mn T) * Usage of Oils/Fats for Biofuels in 28/9: USA : Mn T (vs. 2.4 Mn in 7/8) Brazil Mn T (vs..9) Argentina Mn (vs..5) 1 Oct 28 U.S.A. : Summary Balance of 17 Oils & Fats (Mn T) O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 8/9F 7/8 6/7 5/6 4/5 Production * 16.95* Soya oil * 9.4* Imports * 3.25* Rape oil *.97* Palm oil *.95* Exports * 3.56* Soya oil * 1.32* Net imports... Vegetable oils(a) 1.65* 1.11* Consumption * 16.86* Soya oil * 8.36* Rape oil * 1.22* Palm oil *.9* Consumption.. for biofuel... 3.* 2.4* for food&other 14.3* Change in stocks -.14* -.22* (a) 8 major veg. oils, excl. animal fats etc Sept Sept 28

32 ARGENTINA : Biodiesel Exports (1 T) Sept Aug Sept Jan/Sept Exports to: EU USA Oth. countries Total Oct 28 EU-27: Supply & Demand of 17 Oils & Fats ( Mn T ) O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 8/9F 7/8 6/7 5/6 4/5 Production * 2.29* Soya oil * 2.77* Sun oil * 1.82* Rape oil * 7.66* Imports (a) * 1.2* Soya oil *.93* Sun oil * 1.27* Rape oil *.37* Palm oil * * Exports (a) 1.59* 1.56* Change in stocks +.8* +.11* Consumption * 28.64* Rape oil * 7.82* Consumption.. For biofuel.. 7.8* For food&other 21.63* (a) Intra-EU trade is excluded. 25 Sept 28

33 1 8 6 EU-27 : Consumption of Rape Oil Sharp Increase for Bio-Fuels (Mn T) for Bio-Fuels for Food and other uses 61% 64% 62% 66% 4 16% 4% 2 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 1 Oct Rapeoil Usage (Mn T) U.S.A. Japan Canada EU-27 China India /95 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 1 Oct 28

34 The USA has become a net importer of oils. Brazilian growth in domestic demand outpaces production growth. Growth of Consumption against Production of 17 Oils & Fats over past 5 Seasons 12 Change 28/9 vs. 23/4 1 8 Production Change Consumption Change Mn T USA Russia & Ukraine Indonesia Malaysia Brazil Argentina Canada 24 Sept 28 In Indonesia Palm Oil Output to be boosted to 33 Mn T in 215 (vs 19.1 in 28) Palm Oil Production in Key Countries (Mn T) Malaysia Indonesia J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r 24 Sept 28

35 1 OILSEEDS: World Harvest. Area and Veg. Oil Output in 27/8 Soya 39.4% Soybeans 39.4% Soya oil 3.9% Oil Palm 4.9% Palmoil & Palmkernel oil 36.1 % Soybean Cotton Groundnut Sunflower Rape Oil Palm Coconut Castor Sesame Lin 4,8 4,4 3,6 4 3,2 2,8 2,4 1,6 2 1,2,8,4 Palm Oil : World Production Annual Change (Mn T) -,4 -,8 9/91 92/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 /1 2/3 4/5 6/7 8/9 O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 1 Oct 28

36 14 Palm Oil Yields in W. Malaysia in % of 5-year average jan3 jan4 jan5 jan6 jan7 jan8 sep8 1 Oct 28 Palm Oil Outlook - Oct/Sept 28/9 Malaysia Production 17.6 Mn T (unchanged from 7/8) Exports 15.6 Mn T (up.6 Mn) Stocks end-sep 29 at 1.8 Mn (down.1 Mn) Indonesia Production 2.7 Mn T (up 2. Mn) Exports 15.8 Mn T (up 1.4 Mn) Stocks end-sep 29 at 2. Mn T (up.2 Mn) 1 Oct 28

37 4,5 4 Mon thl y Stocks of P al m Oil in Malaysia and Ind onesi a 28 3, , Jan1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr1May1 Jun1 Jly1 Aug1 Sep1 Oct1 Nov1 Dec1Dec31 PALM OIL : World Balance ( Mn T ) O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 8/9F 7/8 6/7 5/6 4/5 Open stocks 6.53* Production 44.77* 42.25* Change in % +6.% +12.7% +4.1% +7.5% +11.9% Imports 35.24* 32.95* Exports 35.28* 33.6* Disappear. (a) 44.54* 41.22* Change in % +7.8% +1.% +6.% +7.9% +11.6% End g stocks 6.72* 6.53* Stocks/Usage(b) 15.1% 15.8% 15.% 16.3% 15.7% (a) Residual of the balance. (b) Stocks in % of annual usage. 1 Oct 28

38 Concluding Statements Many Risks and Uncertainties Financial Markets Concern about slowing economic growth - - and probably recession in the USA and other countries Lack of confidence Slowdown of consumer buying Spilling over to the agricultural markets

39 Mounting Overcapacity in 27 and 28 Too ambitious Government Targets World Biodiesel Capacities and Production (Mn T) 4 35 Production Capacities * 9.1* Sept 28 How will Mineral Prices Develop? 24, 22, 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, Prices of Crude Mineral Oil Brent & Crude Palm Oil (all in US-$ per barrel) Daily Prices 1 Jan 25 until 2 October 28 Soya Oil Arg Palm Oil Europe Brent WTI NYMEX

40 Palm Oil Prices are Undervalued Relative Crude Mineral Oil Daily Prices of Crude Palm Oil & Brent Crude in US-$ per Tonne Crude Palm oil cif Rotterdam Brent Crude 5 4 Oct 7 Jan 8 Mar 8 Jun 8 Oct 8 Daily futures from 1 Oct 27 until 2 Oct 28 Stocks/Use Ratio of Oils & Fats and Prices % Stocks/usage oils/fats in US-$/T % Soya oil prices Palm oil prices Prices in mid- Oct E n d - S e p t e m b e r

41 Palm Oil is Undervalued Relative to Soya 1,2 Price Ratio of Palm Oil vs. Soya Oil cif Rotterdam 1,1 1,9 1-y. average,8,7,6, Monthly Ratio from Aug 1993 until 2 Oct 28 1 Oct 28 Very Attractive Palm Oil Prices Will Stimulate Demand for Food and Non-Food Oct 6 Daily Prices of Palm Olein fob (US-$/T) Palm olein RBD fob Malaysia Average Oct/Sept 7/8 Average Oct/Sept 6/7-48% Daily prices from 1 Oct 26 until 16 Oct Oct 28

42 Soya oil: monthly prices (US-$/MT) Soya oil, Dutch fob ex-mill New price range ' '2 '4 '6 '8 Monthly prices from Jan 1972 until 2 Oct Soybeans : Monthly Prices (US-$/MT) Soybeans, US, cif Rott. New price range ' '2 '4 '6 '8 Monthly prices from Jan 1972 until 2 Oct 28

43 Soya meal : Monthly Prices (US-$/MT) Soya meal, Arg., cif Rott. New price range ' '2 '4 '6 '8 Monthly prices from Jan 1972 until 2 Oct 28 Thank You for Your Kind Attention! Thomas Mielke <Thomas.Mielke@oilworld.de> Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative Serving the Oilseed, Oil & Meal Industries, Trade, Organizations & Associations

44 Disclaimer Copyright 28 ISTA Mielke GmbH (Publishers of OIL WORLD) -- Reproduction forbidden except by agreement. The publications, analyses, documents and the opinions given are strictly copyright and intended for the internal use of the recipient only. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of the proprietary content of this document without the prior written consent by ISTA Mielke GmbH is strictly prohibited. The information and analyses given in this document are considered to be reliable. Every care is taken to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the contents. We cannot, however, accept any responsibility for them nor for the accuracy of our forecasts and opinions or any liability for the customer's use. Any statements provided constitute current opinions which are subject to change. If you have any further questions or comments, you are invited to contact our director at ISTA Mielke GmbH, OIL WORLD Publications, Langenberg 25, 2177 Hamburg, Germany

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